🌧️ How To Handle Tricky Weather Situations

Can I interest you in 14 hours of football?

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Pikkit:

• Morning Download: Pete gets you caught up
• Our favorite prop bet
• The RB1 for Week 4??
• Eliot's favorite stack: Browns/Falcons
• SNF: Our Top Picks & Plays
  
• Player Matchups: Khalil Herbert & D.J. Moore
• It’s 10/2. Take it away, Peter Overzet…

Today is not one of those days where you can just set your lineup and forget it.

We have all kinds of situations we need to monitor, specifically "Questionable" tags throughout the day and weather concerns on the East Coast. More on both of those below.

Luckily, everything in this newsletter and at FantasyLife.com will help you make the most informed decision. Make sure you take advantage of our tools on the site and follow our Twitter account for any late-breaking news updates:

• INACTIVES - updated at 11:30am ET for 1pm games
• RANKINGS - Full Week 4 rankings for multiple scoring settings from Dwain, Waz, and Hill.
• FANTASY LIFE TWITTER - If news breaks, we'll have it.
• START/SIT TOOL - Debating who to start? Simply type in both players to this tool and we'll tell you the best option.

Read on for everyone who is and isn't expected to play today...

📁 Weather issues on the east coast

The big story today is weather issues on the east coast threatening to slow down some of the best games of the week. Both the Jags-Eagles game in Philly and the Bills-Ravens game in Baltimore will be dealing with 15-20 mph wind gusts and heavy rain throughout the afternoon.

Knowing how to properly account for these conditions when making lineup decisions is tricky. I can't imagine benching any of the superstars in these games (Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Mark Andrews, Stefon Diggs, and AJ Brown, for example).

But if you have good alternatives, feel free to break ties against the fringe contributors, especially if they are utilized in ways that are typically impacted by weather (Devin Duvernay and Marvin Jones in the deep passing game, for example).

📁 The Lions lose another WR

Yesterday we highlighted the Lions losing both D'Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown for today's game vs. the Seahawks and now they will also be without WR DJ Chark. This leaves the team with a skeleton crew at WR (Josh Reynolds, Kalif Raymond, and Quintez Cephus), although all our fairly interesting punt plays if you're in a pinch. TE T.J. Hockenson figures to be busy today. The over/under is only down a half point from 48 since Wednesday, so the books clearly still expect points here.

📁 Bucs back to full strength?

There is optimism that the Bucs will have Chris Godwin (hamstring) and Julio Jones (available) for their big game vs. the Chiefs tonight. You'll need to double check they make it through pregame warmups with no setbacks, but all the chatter sounds positive. Check out our full fantasy and betting guide for SNF below.

📁 Rondale Moore set to return

The Cardinals are in desperate need of playmakers and they'll be getting one back in the lineup today as WR Rondae Moore makes his return to the lineup. Don't assume Moore immediately unseats Greg Dortch, though, who has stepped up in his absence. With A.J. Green ruled out, expect to see Dortch, Moore and Marquise Brown all on the field together in 3-WR sets.

📁 CMC good to go?

Despite some real uncertainty surrounding his thigh injury earlier in the week, Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey is "likely" to play today vs. the Cardinals. CMC missed multiple practices this week and there's a real chance he's limited today. Make sure to check updated reports this afternoon before locking him into your lineup.

📁 Misc. files

Jakobi Meyers will miss another game...Cordarrelle Patterson (knee) plans to play today, but will be a game time decision...Zay Jones, Gabe Davis, Dawson Knox, and Dalton Schultz are all expected to play...Myles Garrett will miss the next 2-4 weeks...Chargers star pass rusher Joey Bosa will miss 8-10 weeks.

💰 Our favorite bet today...

Not only can you track all of your own actions on Pikkit, but you can also tail the Fantasy Life team on all of their best plays!

Our CEO Eliot Crist is 4-2 on his newsletter picks this year and has three more picks for today's action, including:

Nick Chubb Over 86.5 Rushing Yards 

The number one overall EPA rush offense in the Cleveland Browns heads to Atlanta to take on the Falcons and their dead last EPA rush defense. Having gone over this number in all three games this season, look for Chubb to do it again and make it 4/4 to start the season.

For the rest of the Fantasy Life plays, download the FREE App!

Are free picks not enough?

New users who sign up with promo code LIFE will be entered to win $100 cash.

🚀 The Week 4 RB1? The swag is off the charts.

🙏🏽 Could Dak be back soon? It sure sounds like it.

💰 It's Jerry's World, and we're just living in it. Wait, no, not that Jerry. Find out why this Jerry can win you a DFS tournament. 

🎉 The Commanders are getting reinforcements next week. This is great news.

☔️ A reason not to care about the weather in Baltimore. Lamar Jackson & Josh Allen are really good at football.

👕 We'll be seeing some sweet alternate jerseys today. The Commanders one is sick.

📺 RedZone is undefeated. Don't worry, they won't cut away for any MLB home run coverage.

🧐 An update on the Tua investigation. The first head to roll. 

💦 Antonio Brown goes buck wild at hotel pool. This guy needs help and to pay his lawyer more.

When playing DFS we want to correlate our lineups because it means we have to get fewer things right. Tournaments have such top-heavy payout structures that when you are right, you want to be right in a big way. That’s where stacking comes into play. Today, Eliot shares his favorite game to stack...

 🚀 Nick Chubb, David Njoku (Bring back: Drake London)

Typically when I write up a stack, a QB would be involved. But in this situation, I like attacking this game environment, but the ceilings of Marcus Mariota and Jacoby Brissett are limited, so I am just looking to attack with the different offensive pieces of this game.

Nick Chubb has as good of a matchup as you can ask for. The Browns rank 1st in run EPA per play this season and take on the dead last run EPA defense in the Atlanta Falcons. While Chubb may only play 57.6% of the Browns snaps this year, he leads the league in both carries and rushing yards. He is going to be fed by the Browns and feast on the Falcons Sunday.

His teammate David Njoku should join him in the fantasy fun onSunday. As Dwain has been saying for weeks, he has TE1 Utilization, playing over 80% of the Brown's snaps. Njoku’s breakout performance should have surprised no one and is not a fluke. 

Brown’s QB Jacoby Brissett loves to funnel passes to the tight end. In 2019, 50% of his touchdown passes went to tight ends, while he targeted Mike Gesicki on 20.2% of dropbacks last season. Njoku’s volume is that of a player priced at least $1,000 higher, and he is in a smash spot Sunday.

Rookie receivers who break out early are the guys we need to pay attention to, and Drake London is doing exactly that. Through three weeks, London has seen 35% of the Falcon's air yards and 34% of the team's targets. London is dominating in play action this year, per Dwain McFarland’s ranking and tiers article.

“Over the last three seasons, play-action targets are worth 18% more than non-play-action for WRs. On average, WRs see 23% of their targets on play action, but London is at 42%.”

While the Falcons’ passing volume is less than desirable, London has an elite market share in it. As long as Mariota throws 25+ times, he should have a good game, and if the Falcons go in catchup mode, London has slate-breaking upside. 

The Bucs bottomed out last week against the Packers scoring only 12 points, but there's room for optimism heading into their SNF tilt vs. the Chiefs. They are currently one-point home favorites with Mike Evans returning from his one-game suspension and both Chris Godwin and Julio Jones officially listed as questionable but likely to return.

Considering the talent in this game, it's a bit surprising to see the total sitting at just 45.5. The Chiefs offense has underwhelmed of late, but this game certainly has the potential to shootout.

Here's everything we like tonight from a fantasy, DFS, and betting perspective:  All odds via BetMGM

Our research for these plays comes from, Run the Sims, Props.cash (Use promo code LIFE to save 20% on your subscription), PFF, OWS, and the Fantasy Life Rankings, Start/Sit tool, and Player Props tool.

Every Sunday we'll highlight two interesting matchups you should be aware of before setting your lineup. Take it away, Kevin...

🔥 Khalil Herbert @ NYG

After finishing as last week’s fantasy RB1, some would think including Khalil Herbert here is low-hanging fruit. But with David Montgomery out for Week 4, the Bears being toxic for most everything fantasy-related in 2022, and an over/under that’s one of the lowest on the slate at 38.5, that there would be some trepidation to starting a Bear.

Not to worry, fantasy manager. You’re in good hands.

In two starts last season, Herbert scored at least 18.3 fantasy points in each game, including four targets per game. He just reeled off 169 total yards on 22 touches with two touchdowns. The Giants have allowed the third-most rushing yards to RBs this season at a robust 5.6 yards per carry, and if there’s one thing the Bears CAN do, it’s run the ball. Their league-leading 65.4% run play percentage is so absurdly high in today’s NFL that they may as well be wearing leather helmets and having their games broadcast in black and white.

Everything is breaking right for a monster Week 4 for Herbert. If you stashed him or picked him up from waivers this week, he’s an immediate start.

☣️ D.J. Moore vs. ARI

Never has the public sentiment been so low on a talented WR as it has with D.J. Moore. I had to even eat a nice, hearty self-own on social media.

The time for wallowing is over. The time for redemption is here.

Despite the Panthers’ lack of production on offense, I’m ready to ride with Moore this week. He’s too good to be down this long. Despite reeling in just seven of 18 targets, Moore still commands 23% of his team’s targets and over 30% of the air yards. Unfortunately, we haven’t seen the production follow Moore as we had hoped.

We’re talking about a WR who has averaged over 1,100 receiving yards and 140 targets over the last three seasons with not-so-great QBs like Kyle Allen, Will Grier, and Cam Newton. In this matchup, Mayfield can certainly be MORE efficient than he’s been through three games.

The law of averages has to take hold at some point. I feel good with Week 4 being a launch point for Moore as the Cardinals’ ineptitude at stopping teams from passing all over them with NFL’s worst PFF coverage grade by a wide margin gives reason for optimism.

i love when quarterbacks look at a tablet immediately after throwing an interception.

“yup, just as i suspected. threw it to the wrong team”

— Adam London (@_adamlondon)
Sep 30, 2022