Hide your kids, hide your wife: Bye weeks are here…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:
- The Seahawks took down the Giants in an instant classic (jk)
- Sheesh Report: Davante Adams was ROBBED
- Utilization Report: Is Jake Ferguson a TE1 moving forward?
- QUICK HITTER: A rookie RB ascending the ranks
- Hurt not injured: Justin Herbert (finger) is going to be okay
- Week 5 Waiver Wire: C.J. Stroud is absolutely balling out
- It’s 10/3. Take it away, Ian Hartitz…
The Seahawks captured a 24-3 victory over the Giants on Monday night in what was objectively an UGLY affair.
Here’s your game breakdown in exactly 100 words:
Geno Smith game-managed his way through a knee injury to gut out the victory. His six-yard TD to D.K. Metcalf was an absolute dart.
Kenneth Walker's 17-79-1 rushing performance would have been far bigger had his butt cheek not grazed the ground on what was initially ruled a 73-yard house call.
Darren Waller's 3-21-0 receiving line initially looks bad, but in reality, it's far more depressing because he only had three targets.
Daniel Jones was sacked 10 (!) times during the massacre; shoutout to rookie Seahawks CB Devon Witherspoon on accounting for two of them and adding an electric pick-six.
Remember: Bad Monday night football is still better than no Monday night football.
MOVING ON.
You know those plays that make you jump out of your seat thinking that your fantasy player just racked up bunches of points … only for something to then go horribly wrong? You know? The sort of moments that simply make you say “Sheesh!”?
Well, Ian enjoys tracking these sorts of near misses on a weekly basis as some sort of weird form of self-punishment, but it’s oddly convenient when assessing fantasy football bounce-back candidates so we continue to roll with it.
Presenting: The Week 4 Sheesh! Report.
☠️ Raiders WR Davante Adams scored a TD, but it wasn’t actually a TD
And his own head coach didn’t even challenge the ruling for reasons that remain unknown.
RB Josh Jacobs would score two plays later, rendering the decision a moot point in terms of real-life football impact, but fantasy footballers and anytime TD bettors certainly have to be feeling sheeshy following the most brutal “just short” of the year.
Well, maybe. This one was pretty rough too.
😢 Commanders RB Brian Robinson was oh so close to a three-TD day
It’s one thing to finish just short of the goal line and not capitalize with six points later in the drive. This phenomenon happens many times every week – and we at Sheesh Corp accordingly keep track of these instances!
However, it’s another thing to get stopped on one drive, and then FUMBLE across the goal line just before scoring later in the same game.
You might want to sit down for this one, Brian Robinson fantasy managers.
While the second-year bell-cow would finally punch one across the goal line later in the Commanders’ Week 4 loss to the Eagles, Robinson was truly just a few inches away from putting forward an extra special day at the office.
Here’s the full list of Week 4’s players who managed to get the football within three feet of the goal line, but not quite across the plane, and didn’t score later on the same drive:
- Texans QB C.J. Stroud (finished drive with a TD pass)
- Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell
- Commanders RB Brian Robinson (x2)
- Raiders RB Josh Jacobs
- Buccaneers RB Rachaad White
- Colts RB Zack Moss
- Chargers RB Joshua Kelley
- Jets RB Dalvin Cook
- Packers RB A.J. Dillon
- Raiders WR Davante Adams
- Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson
- Seahawks TE Noah Fant
- 49ers FB Kyle Juszczyk
“Congrats” to D’Andre Swift for being the only player with three such instances of this sheeshy affair so far in 2023. The likes of Stroud, Robinson, Jacobs, White, Kelley, Dillon, Kyren Williams, Isiah Pacheco, and Rashee Rice are the only other players with two such instances this season.
🐬 The Waddle that never was
TDs usually get nullified by a penalty for a good reason, but that doesn’t make the roller coaster of adrenaline any less sheeshful for fantasy managers to deal with.
In Week 4 there were three such instances.
*Law and Order Music*
These are their stories:
Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle hauled in an eight-yard TD early in the 4th quarter to potentially start a late comeback, but the score was wiped off the board due to an ineligible man downfield. No TD, and the drive would end with Tua Tagovailoa taking a sack and turning the ball over on downs.
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson coulda, shoulda, woulda had a three-TD day … if only TE Josh Oliver hadn’t been called for holding on Jefferson’s short two-yard score on the very first drive of the game. Salt was poured in the metaphorical sheesh wound when Kirk Cousins threw a 99-yard pick-six just two plays later.
Texans RB Dameon Pierce caught a five-yard TD on the Texans’ first drive of the game, only for the score to be nullified by an ineligible man downfield. The play happened just after QB C.J. Stroud was initially ruled to have scored a TD, but replay showed he was actually down just short of the goal line. Fantasy Life’s fearless leader Matthew Berry, was quick to point out just how sheeshy the entire sequence really was.
More of Week 4’s most sheeshy sheeshes
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Here’s the dirty little secret about NFL player usage: It’s probably the single most important variable to assess when attempting to fantasy football to the best of your abilities.
What’s that? You already know this? Get on with it? Alright fine, chill.
Without further adieu: Dwain McFarland’s critically acclaimed Utilization Report.
1. Khalil Herbert asserted himself as the No. 1 back for Chicago.
After sharing the workload with Roschon Johnson over the last two games, Herbert surged to utilization highs in Week 4, and the fantasy points followed with 22.
This was the Bears' first game to build a lead, which might have contributed to the enhanced role for Herbert. Still, regardless of the game script, Herbert has led the Bears in snap share in three consecutive games. He has played 68% of the snaps in 2023 when the Bears are within three points.
Herbert also registered season-high marks in passing-down situations with 73% of the LDD snaps and 50% of the two-minute offense. Johnson stole the lone rushing attempt inside the five-yard line, but Herbert dominated the SDD work with 88%.
The third-year RB hasn’t been quite as explosive as in previous years, but his yards after contact and missed tackles forced rank highly among the 35 backs with at least 30 attempts.
- 10-plus yard attempts: 9.8% (18th)
- Average yards after contact: 3.27 (8th)
- Missed tackles forced per attempt: 31.7% (1st)
Herbert also has a 19% TPRR, which is borderline RB1-worthy based on data back to 2012. If he can hold onto more passing-down work, he might make unexpected noise as a receiver in 2023.
The third-year RB could still experience swings in value because, unlike 2022, the Bears are no longer a run-heavy offense. They are a neutral DBOE team.
Outlook: Herbert UPGRADES to low-end RB2 with upside status.
2. Jake Ferguson has TE1-worthy talent and SHOULD BE ON ROSTERS.
Ferguson’s 27% TPRR ranks No. 2 in the NFL for TEs that have run at least 80 routes. Who is in first place, you ask? Travis Kelce.
I don’t mean to be overdramatic, but I want your attention. Ferguson is currently the TE8, averaging 9.5 points per game, but with a more prominent role, he has top-six upside.
In Week 4, Peyton Hendershot didn’t play for the Cowboys, opening the door to Ferguson’s biggest route participation day at 69%, and he delivered 15 points.
The TEs to reach at least a 70% route participation and a 24%-plus TPRR since 2011:
- Darren Waller
- Delanie Walker
- George Kittle
- Jimmy Graham
- Jordan Reed
- Mark Andrews
- Rob Gronkowski
- Travis Kelce
- Zach Ertz
Read that list again. DO IT.
Ferguson remains available in 47% of Yahoo! leagues and is a PRIORITY waiver wire target this week. He should be rostered over names like Pat Freiermuth, Hunter Henry, Tyler Higbee, and Chig Okonkwo.
FAAB Recommendation: 20 to 30%
Outlook: Ferguson UPGRADES to low-end TE1 status and offers a top-six upside with more involvement.
3. Is Romeo Doubs turning into a high-end target earner?
Doubs leads the Packers with a 25% target share despite starting the season at less than 100% due to a hamstring injury. In three of four games, he has reached a 25% TPRR or better, and in Week 4, he tallied a career-high 35% while accounting for 38% of Green Bay’s targets.
The second-year WR flashed WR3-worthy target-earning ability as a rookie with a 21% TPRR, but the rest of his data profile was questionable, including his 62.0 PFF receiving grade. That hasn’t been the case in Year 2. His 1.75 YPRR is WR3-worthy, and his 75.8 PFF receiving grade is at a WR2 level.
The Packers didn’t get Christian Watson back until Week 4, and he only played on 48% of the passing plays. As Watson returns to health, Doubs could regress with more competition, especially with the emergence of rookie Jayden Reed with a 22% TPRR.
Despite those concerns, it is hard not to notice Doubs’ chemistry with Jordan Love. There is a chance he will be the Packers' No. 1 in 2023. The second-year WR has delivered WR13, WR70, WR16 and WR10 finishes in four contests.
Doubs is available in 46% of Yahoo! leagues and is our waiver wire add of the week in 10-team leagues or smaller.
FAAB Recommendation: 20 to 30%
Outlook: Doubs UPGRADES to high-end WR3 status and will move into WR2 territory if his target shares withstand Watson in a full-time role.
MORE key utilization takeaways from Week 4
It’s Tuesday, which means it’s officially Week 5. To welcome in the new week of Fantasy Football, Matthew Freedman was up at the crack of dawn to make sure his rankings were ready for you before your morning coffee. Check out his full Week 5 rankings set here!
😅 Overall good injury news for the Steelers’ hopeful franchise QB. They’re saying there’s a chance.
📊 Stock up, stock down. The four biggest risers and fallers through four weeks.
🙏 Back-to-back season-ending injuries for one of Bills’ best players. Will God turn off injuries already?
🤔 Is the Jonathan Taylor saga almost over? How to handle the former overall RB1.
🐅 The Bengals’ passing game won’t be without one of their top dogs for long, if at all. Hurt not injured.
🎉 Very cool moment in the Rams locker room after the game. Great day to be great.
🐻 Just how bad has the Bears defense been over the last 12 months? Pretty, pretty, pretty bad.
😭 Nothing will change under center for the Falcons in Week 5. Free Taylor Heinicke.
⚡ Good injury news for the Chargers for once. Tis but a scratch.
🍁 Maple Jordan will remain out of the building. More drama in Chicago.
It’s Week 5, and the start of the bye-week gauntlet begins. But the break is something of a double-edged sword.
On the one hand, fantasy managers will be without high-end options like Justin Herbert, D.K. Metcalf and Kenneth Walker. But on the flip side, it gives other guys some time to heal.
Austin Ekeler hasn’t played since Week 1, and Mike Evans left Sunday’s contest with an injury. Regardless, we need production. And after four games, we know a bit more about these offenses.
Chris is here to dive into the waiver wire and see who’s worth picking up on Tuesday.
💪 QB C.J. Stroud, Texans
The Texans’ rookie now ranks inside the top 10 for passing success rate and EPA per dropback. C.J. Stroud has eclipsed 300 yards in half of his starts, thrown at least one TD in three of four, and (critical for fantasy purposes) he uses his legs. Since Week 1, he’s had a designed rushing rate above 5.0%.
The results have been QB1-worthy (QB12 on the season), and against the Falcons this week (22nd in EPA per dropback allowed), Stroud should be a popular streaming option.
🏈 QB Sam Howell, Commanders
Sam Howell is an “all or nothing” option. In positive situations, he has the seventh-best adjusted completion percentage — but watch out if a defense forces him to speed up his process. He’s thrown the most interceptions under pressure and has taken the most sacks of any QB.
But he’s playing the Bears this weekend. They’re 25th in pressure rate and have just two QB takedowns through four weeks.
At a +1% dropback over expectation rate, Howell could sling it enough to reward fantasy managers in Week 5.
🧀 WR Romeo Doubs, Packers
Of all the Packers’ receivers, I had the most doubts about Romeo Doubs coming into the 2023 season. In ’22, Doubs functioned as the team’s X-receiver, running most of his routes from the outside. He still does. And with Jordan Love coming into the season as a first-time starter, high-percentage throws made more sense to ease him into the system.
With all the hype around Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave, Green Bay’s passing game didn’t need to focus on the perimeter. They already had Christian Watson. But Watson returned in Week 4 for TNF, and Doubs’ role didn’t shrink. In fact, it expanded:
- Routes per dropback (Weeks 1-3 to Week 4): 78.3% to 87.8%
- Target share: 21.1% to 38.2%
- Air yard share: 23.5% to 40.8%
- Targets per route run: 0.24 to 0.36
Keep in mind Watson was on a snap count, and Musgrave got knocked out midway through the game. Regardless, Love is first in air yards per attempt and sixth in deep-passing rate. He’s not your typical first-time starter. It gives Doubs (and Reed, more on him in a minute) more week-to-week stability than anticipated, making him our add of the week in leagues with 10 or fewer teams.
🐦 WR Michael Wilson, Cardinals
Michael Wilson scored two TDs on Sunday in yet another surprisingly competitive game for the Cardinals. Wilson had earned some offseason hype, so it’s good to see positive early-season returns.
He’s my top deep-league WR add for the week, but I’ll add some context to his Week 4 performance.
His 17.1% target share was the highest it’s been all season
Wilson’s air yard share has fluctuated every game (36.6%, 18.3%, 33.6%, 19.0%)
He was still third in targets on Sunday (behind Marquise Brown and Zach Ertz)
Wilson was even third in red-zone targets (behind Ertz and Zach Pascal)
I’m not saying this to say Wilson is bad or lucky (well, catching two TDs on two red-zone targets is fortunate). It’s more to highlight his opportunity and what to expect. And, in the end, you should expect the production of a rookie WR attached to a (frisky!) Josh Dobbs-led offense.
But against the Bengals in Week 5? Who’ve allowed the fifth-most explosive plays? Wilson could give us a repeat performance.
