Life is all fun and games until the fantasy squad is staring down an 0-3 start…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Paramount+:
- Key usage takeaways from Thursday Night Football
- Week 3 Fantasy Questions: Gus Bus propaganda and more
- Paramount+ Matchup of the Week: Bills vs. Commanders
- QUICK HITTER: Are you tailing or fading this bet?!
- The Walkthrough: Pat Kerrane shares his legendary wisdom
- Best Bets of Week 3: A Kyle Pitts OVER? In this economy?
- It’s 9/22. Take it away, Ian Hartitz…
The 49ers took down the Giants 30 to 12 on Thursday night, getting huge games out of Christian McCaffrey (22.9 PPR points) and Deebo Samuel (25.1) on their way to easily covering as 10.5-point favorites.
Daniel Jones and the G-Men never quite seemed to get out of first gear, totaling a rather pathetic 150 yards on an average of just 3.3 yards per play against the vaunted San Fran defense. Darren Waller (3-20-0) managers are likely questioning their life choices after a performance that featured a brutal mix of inaccurate targets and drops.
Two key usage revelations stood out and will help us adjust the ole ranks for these squads in Week 4 and beyond.
🤷♂️ No Aiyuk? Just throw it to Deebo
The absence of Brandon Aiyuk (shoulder) led to more of a featured role than usual for the 2021 first-team All-Pro WR and occasional RB.
Overall, Deebo Samuel broke approximately 40 tackles, caught six of 12 targets for 129 yards, and hauled in a b-e-a-utiful 27-yard double-move TD.
The only other time that Samuel played without Aiyuk was in Week 12, 2020 ... and he posted an 11-133-0 receiving line on 13 targets. Samuel also went off during the first two weeks of 2021 (9-189-1, 6-93-0) when Aiyuk infamously found himself in Kyle Shanahan's doghouse to begin the season.
Here’s to hoping Aiyuk gets back to full health soon; just realize Deebo’s potential for weekly double-digit target totals during his absence has the making of MORE upside WR1 performances.
✍️ Featured RB szn in place of Saquon
It’s been confirmed by none other than Saquon Barkley himself that he is dealing with the dreaded high ankle sprain. Ugh.
Somewhat good news: The backfield usage singled in on one specific RB as opposed to a projected multi-back committee in his absence.
- Matt Breida: 41 snaps, 22 routes, 3 targets, 4 carries
- Gary Brightwell: 9 snaps, 5 routes, 3 targets, 4 carries
While the carries and targets were equal, it’s clear that Breida is the clear-cut leader here. The veteran speedster should see much more work in future matchups when, you know, the Giants can actually move the football with some semblance of consistency.
Still not exactly an upside RB2 who will NEED to be in fantasy lineups, but at least a solid-enough FLEX option who should see double-digit touches more weeks than not.
Life is simply better with Thursday night football in it — but let’s not get lazy people: We still have 15 more games to get ready for.
Week 2 was great and all, but you know what has the potential to be even cooler? Week 3, baby.
Ian Hartitz’s goal: Break down Week 3 by asking – and attempting to answer – the most meaningful fantasy-related questions possible.
⚡ Can Joshua Kelley still be trusted after last week’s dud?
Assuming Austin Ekeler (ankle) is sidelined once again: Yes. Don’t get it twisted: That performance sucked, but it did come against the perennially stout Titans run defense.
Kelley’s underlying usage was more than good enough to again warrant RB2 consideration:
- Snaps: 78%
- Rush attempt share: 62%
- Route participation rate: 66%
- Short down and distance snaps: 83%
- Long down and distance snaps: 77%
- Two-minute snaps: 100%
Don’t expect Kelley to get peppered with targets like he’s Ekeler, but 15-plus combined carries and targets should still go a long way inside of a Chargers offense presently implied to score 26.5 points – the seventh-highest mark of Week 3.
This Vikings run defense had absolutely no answers for D’Andre Swift (28-175-1) in Week 2. Kelley doesn’t need to be forced into every starting lineup – just don’t let last week’s dud completely impact this week’s start/sit decision.
👀 Death, taxes, James Conner RB2-level production?
That seems to be the case. The veteran RB has now peeled off six consecutive RB2-level finishes since Kyler Murray (knee, IR) went down at the end of 2022.
- Week 14, 2022: 15-85-1 rushing, 6-29-0 receiving, PPR RB5 (95% snaps)
- Week 15, 2022: 16-63-1, 3-28-0, RB12 (91%)
- Week 16, 2022: 15-79-1, 7-41-0, RB4 (97%)
- Week 17, 2022: 16-79-0, 3-31-0, RB15 (55% - left early with a shin injury)
- Week 1, 2023: 14-62-0, 5-8-0, RB20 (84%)
- Week 2, 2023: 23-106-1, 0-0-0, RB15 (72%)
It might not always be pretty, but Conner is the true engine of this offense and the favorite to account for whatever points they manage to put up on a weekly basis.
The Cowboys haven’t made ANYTHING easy on opposing offenses this season; just realize it’s awfully tough to bench any RB poised to rack up 20-plus touches during any given week.
🚌 Why won’t the mainstream media acknowledge Gus Edwards’ greatness?
I don’t know, but make no mistake about it: Fantasy Life is well aware of just how great the artist known as Gus Bus is at efficiently picking up yardage on the ground.
Here’s a list for you: Most career yards per carry among all RBs with at least 500 rush attempts in the Super Bowl era.
- Bo Jackson (5.4)
- Jamaal Charles (5.4)
- Nick Chubb (5.3)
- Gus Bus (5.2)
The former undrafted free agent has averaged 5.2, 5.3, 5, 5, and this year 5.2 yards per carry in his five career seasons. Sure, Edwards isn’t the flashiest juker in the world, and his straight-line speed won’t land him on the Next-Gen Stats fastest ball carriers leaderboard anytime soon, but the last time I checked, none of those things count for extra points in fantasy football land.
Justice Hill (toe) is banged up, locking Edwards into a likely 15-plus touch role (at least) as a big-time home favorite vs. a Colts defense that was a bottom-eight unit in PPR points per game allowed to the position one year ago. Guys like Melvin Gordon and Kenyan Drake will see some usage as well; just realize Edwards profiles as a volume-based RB2 expected to see a hefty amount of touches ahead of this rather great spot.
41 (!) more questions breaking down Week 3
You can also watch/listen to Ian Hartitz, Dwain McFarland, and Chris Allen as they break down ALL of your burning fantasy football questions ahead of Week 3!
👀 How Did You Watch the Best Game From Week 2?!
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Paramount+ is your home to stream local, national and postseason NFL games on CBS live, all the way through Super Bowl LVIII.
Sign up for Paramount+ now to catch CBS games all season long including your local Week 3 matchups:
1:00 pm ET Kick-Off
- Buffalo at Washington
- New England at NY Jets
- Tennessee at Cleveland
- Indianapolis at Baltimore
- Denver at Miami
4:05 pm ET Kick-Off
- Carolina at Seattle
Make it the best season yet and follow the road to Las Vegas with Paramount+.
Every Friday, Fantasy Life will highlight our matchup of the week, presented by Paramount+. This week’s pick features a perennial AFC powerhouse taking on a surprisingly undefeated NFC East squad still breaking in a new QB. Chris is here to help you get that popcorn ready…
I love the first few weeks of the regular season.
It’s a time when we get to learn about each team. What we see on the field challenges our offseason priors, and it makes us look back at last season to square it all. Plus, we can make grand statements that will (likely) look ridiculous in a month.
Like this one: The Washington Commanders are better than the Buffalo Bills.
Well, I mean, one team is undefeated, and the other lost to the Jets piloted by Zach Wilson. #TeamWinz have to count for something. But the Commanders’ dominance loses strength once you get past both win-loss columns.
The Bills are one of six teams in the top 12 for EPA per rush and EPA per dropback. Josh Allen can (usually) beat you through the air. Meanwhile, the trio of James Cook, Damien Harris, and Latavius Murray can break or avoid tackles. They sometimes do both on the same attempt. Buffalo has a balanced type of offense that should give any defense fits.
And it all starts with No. 17.
After a mistake-prone Week 1, Josh Allen was back on his game against the Raiders. The word “decisive” comes to mind when reviewing the game. Allen’s average time to throw was down, and he leaned on Buffalo’s short-area options more (he threw 10 air yards or less on 62.1% of his dropbacks). But the tell-tale sign OC Ken Dorsey settled his QB down was Allen’s lack of scrambles.
Allen hasn’t had a game with zero scrambles since 2020. At the same time, his entire arsenal got involved in the passing game. It meant fewer targets to his WRs (third-lowest target rate for WRs since 2020), which meant less for Stefon Diggs.
But Allen’s top option still tied for the most overall looks (7) and was the only WR with more than one attempt thrown his way in the red zone. Regardless, being on an offense with the fourth-most yards per drive allows fantasy managers to get interested in other players connected to the Bills.
Luckily, Dalton Kincaid already had our interest before the season even started.
At first glance, Kincaid’s box score looks worrisome. His snap rate dropped to 62.2% after a solid outing during the season opener (79.4%), and the rookie TE only has nine targets to Dawson Knox’s ten. For their offseason ADP gap, we expected more. But his peripherals are encouraging.
- Targets per route run: 10.5% in Week 1, 26.1% in Week 2
- Air yard share: 1.6%, 22.7%
- Targets out of 12 personnel (Kincaid and Knox on the field): 5.0%, 27.3%
Kincaid has become a larger branch in Allen’s decision tree in just a couple of weeks. Against the Raiders, the Utah product had a higher share of the team’s air yards than Diggs. And, like the above highlight (well…) highlights, Kincaid’s versatility as a blocker who can release for short-yardage gains is invaluable to Allen.
With Washington’s defensive front getting pressure on 52.4% of Russell Wilson’s dropbacks last week, an Allen-Kincaid connection looks like the perfect pairing to short-circuit the Commanders’ defensive approach.
More on this intriguing Bills-Commanders Week 3 matchup
❤️ Matthew Berry’s Week 3 Love/Hate column is LIVE. He loves WHAT RB?!
💰 Looking for Week 3 action? 5 Must-bet player props.
😢 The Cowboys lose a MAJOR piece on defense. Prayers up.
📺 Nine early-season trends you need to pay attention to. Are they REAL or FAKE?
🧠 Be comfortable being uncomfortable. Fading Week 3 chalk can lead to a massive payday.
🧑⚕️ Green Bay is getting healthier ahead of Week 3. Can NASA figure out a cure for hamstrings already?
👨🦰 Remember when Miles Sanders said Andy Dalton was a future Hall of Famer? BIG news for The Red Rocket.
😬 Fantasy managers aren’t the only ones frustrated with D.J. Moore’s usage. Guys being dudes.
👩❤️👨 Update on America’s favorite new (potential) power couple. Ball’s in your court, Taylor.
🤣 Kenyan Drake’s hoodie is absolutely amazing. People don’t forget.
An all-encompassing Week 3 preview breaking down EVERY game with an array of advanced analytics as well as devoted film analysis from a champion expert in the field who just so happens to also be a rather great writer — is that something you might be interested in? Well good, because Legendary Upside founder and Fantasy Life partner Pat Kerrane is here to spread the good word ahead of Week 3…
If the Vikings' offensive line continues protecting Kirk Cousins, they should have a lot of success attacking downfield.
In a league obsessed with preventing explosive gains, the Chargers aren't getting the job done. They've allowed 15+ yard passes on 26% of dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL. Much of that was driven by Miami's 17 (!) explosive passes in Week 1, but this is not the defense you'd pick to shut down a productive passing game.
Unsurprisingly, Justin Jefferson looks like an absolute superstar this season.
He hasn't missed a single route and is the engine of the passing attack, with a 27% first-read target rate. Even while dealing with a high rate of double coverage, he's delivering an ultra-elite 3.32 YPRR. He has a massive ceiling this week.
Jordan Addison's profile is less exciting than Jefferson's, but he looks like a great fit for this matchup.
The Vikings should be taking shots downfield against the Chargers, and Addison has been their go-to guy on deep shots. With defensive attention flooding to Jefferson, defenses can't fully account for Addison, who has seen double coverage on just 15% of his routes, compared to 26% for Jefferson.
And the Vikings are taking advantage of Addison's ability in one-on-one matchups downfield. With a 16.5 aDOT, a 26% air yard share, and a 1.99 YPRR, Addison is operating as a high-level deep threat.
In route participation, Addison (72%) remains behind K.J. Osborn (95%), but Osborn's low-end 0.74 YPRR would make him vulnerable to losing playing time under normal circumstances. It doesn't help that he has an explosive rookie on his heels.
Addison is a boom/bust option this week, but he's the type of guy I'd be breaking ties toward in the FLEX.
Addison is also a very interesting DFS play. He's in an ideal game environment and gets a matchup that perfectly fits what the talented rookie is bringing to the Vikings offense.
Read the Rest of the Week 3 Walkthrough!
You like betting on football, we like betting on football: Everyone likes betting on football. Especially Geoff, who has some Week 3 best bets to get off of his chest.
If Week 2 is overreaction week, then Week 3 might well be named the hyperventilation chamber.
Any team that hasn’t produced a win yet, and any player yet to produce above-average stats, is now on red alert – as their season teeters on the brink of catastrophe.
Naturally, as a connoisseur of underdogs and broken things, I’ve found one team and player for our bets that fit this mold well.
The Week 3 best bets are below...
📈 Prop: Kyle Pitts over 34.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)
There is good reason to be skeptical of any sentence that includes Kyle Pitts and “over” beside each other.
His Week 2 output (2-15, 5 targets) was about as bleak as it gets for a player of his talent level, and seeing Jonnu Smith (4-47, 6 targets) outproduce him was jarring – even for the most devoted of Pitts fans.
Despite the disappointment, Pitts still had a double-digit target share in Week 2, and his 91% route participation rate remains unchanged from Week 1. While betting overs is always slightly more risky, Pitts’ 40.5-yard projection on Fantasy Life this week does indicate there is some real upside lurking with him in this matchup.
The Lions have allowed the most receiving yards against to the TE position through two weeks and will also be without their starting safety CJ Gardner-Johnson (IR). The stars align so well this week for Pitts that we might even look to take this bet a step further.
BetMGM often has player Milestone lines for receivers at 50/75/100 yards and Pitts’ absurd after-the-catch ability (remember that time he posted 44 yards on two catches all the way back in Week 1) makes him live to hit some of these bigger odds in a soft matchup.
If you’re going to go over on such a volatile player you might as well go big, and Pitts, if he hits, seems likely to knock it out of the park this week.
🐴 Spread: Broncos +6.5 (-110, BetMGM)
The Broncos are 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS to start the year but did have legitimate chances at grabbing wins in both starts. They also saw some improvement from Russell Wilson (308-3-1, 5-56) against Washington, as the former subway sandwich artist averaged 9.6 yards per pass attempt in Week 2 (up from 6.3 in Week 1). Overall, he now ranks fourth among quarterbacks in the EPA + CPOE composite ranking on the year.
Even if Wilson has slowed down a bit, he’s playing well enough to give the Broncos a chance at the win every week – something that will eventually pay off with better results. I don’t necessarily expect Denver to pull off the upset but they are in an interesting spot for betting.
0-2 teams, who have also yet to cover (0-2 ATS), have done insanely well against the spread in Week 3 producing a 50-29-1 ATS record since 2016 – per The Action Network.
Miami has certainly looked good, but the market may also be overvaluing them just a touch. Their run defense has been an issue, and they needed a late review on a fourth-quarter drive to put the Patriots away. With Jaylen Waddle (concussion) also looking doubtful and Tyreek Hill having missed a little practice time as well, Denver seems like they’ll have a much better chance of hanging around in this game.
