We’re gonna need a bigger goalie — (Jaws always hit his overs)
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM:
NHL Playoffs: Expect the goals to flow in Edmonton
Watercooler: PGA Best Bets for the RBC Canadian Open
MLB Wednesday: Fade Spencer Schwellenbach in his MLB debut?
It’s 5/29. Take it away, Geoff Ulrich
The Oilers and Stars offenses started slowly but kicked things up a notch in Game 3. Edmonton’s speed broke down the Dallas defense early, while the Stars’ best skill player, Jason Robertson, finally made his presence felt with a hattrick.
All-in-all, the biggest stars on both sides of the ice, Robertson and Connor McDavid, combined for four goals and an assist, and the game ended with eight total tallies. Looking ahead to Game 4, it certainly feels like it will be tough for the defenses on either side to slow down these offensive juggernauts.
Edmonton’s weak goaltending depth is becoming a factor yet again as Stuart Skinner’s SV% for the playoffs has now dropped to .885%, by far the worst of the remaining four starters. On the flip side, Dallas’ defense got exposed for portions of Game 3 and will be facing a desperate Oilers squad who averaged 4.12 goals per game at home this season.
With this in mind, I’ve selected a few ways to potentially profit from a higher-scoring, back-and-forth affair tonight.
📈 Oilers vs Stars Over 6.0 Goals (+100; bet365)
I’m looking at a few higher variance props today (and a monster +3000 SGP you can find by clicking the link to the article) but targeting the total is the easy way to gain leverage off a potentially higher-scoring game. As of writing, there are still some 5.5 totals lurking, but they are all available at -125 or worse. Certainly, the smaller total gives you a little more security, but if we do get a ceiling game from one of the goalies (remember, even Stuart Skinner has recorded a shutout in these playoffs), then even that small number would be in jeopardy of getting chalked. Playing the bigger number at 6.0 just makes more sense, not only for the better odds we’re getting but also for how fast these offenses can strike if the same kind of back-and-forth game we saw in Game 3 breaks out.
Edmonton at home these playoffs has also been an over machine. Their home games have averaged 6.57 total goals and they currently sit with a 5-1-1 record to the over in seven home games. Just given the price action (73% of the handle is on the over at BetMGM), I’d expect we see 6.0 totals across the board by puck drop. This number could also move towards -110, making it a good one to add now.
🥅 Zach Hyman Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-118; FanDuel)
The price on Hyman’s SOG prop has shortened for Game 4, but it’s still offering us some decent value to the Over. The Oilers winger makes his living banging home pucks around the net, and, as he showcased in Game 3, that often makes him a very hard man to slow down with blocks or deflections. He attempted eight shots in the Game 3 loss to Dallas, and seven of those attempts ended up hitting the net.
Overall, Hyman has now gone over this prop in four of his last five games and has averaged a healthy 4.2 shots on net in these playoffs. He’s also a player who produced drastic home-road splits this season that are worth noting. The 31-year-old scored 63% of his goals at home and that was in large part due to how much more aggressive he was with his shot. In 40 games played in Edmonton, he averaged 4.05 shots on net vs. just 3.2 shots on net on the road.
Hyman’s been hitting the over on this 3.5 total with such ferocity that I wouldn’t hesitate to play this at an even shorter number than is currently listed. Even at -125, we’re getting an implied probability of around 55%, while his actual rate of going over 3.5 SOG in these playoffs sits at 66%.
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🍁 The RBC Canadian Open starts this Thursday. A +2600 Outright to target and more in this week’s PGA best bets.
⛹🏻♀️ Caitlin Clark has arrived. Her efforts already have her joining some very elite company in the WBNA.
1️⃣3️⃣ You get a strikeout, and you get a strikeout ... The Padres Jeremiah Estrada accomplished an insane feat on Tuesday night.
🐺 The Timberwolves survived Game 4, but can they go the distance? No team in NBA history has come back from 3-0 down.
🥊 Mike Tyson had a small health scare in his lead-in to the fight with Jake Paul. Thankfully (for us, not Paul), he seems like he’ll be fine.
🧐 It’s early, but this situation is worth keeping an eye on. Neither of the Bengals’ top WRs were at voluntary OTAs.
🤕 The Braves lost Ronald Acuna Jr. for the season. And went from heavy favorites to big underdogs to win the NL East.
The sports calendar may be a bit light this time of year, but you can always count on baseball. Wednesday features a massive 16-game slate, with the action spread pretty evenly between the afternoon and evening. Matt LaMarca breaks down his favorite MLB bet to target:
🇺🇸 Nationals ML at Braves (+130; BetMGM)
Things have not gone to plan for the Braves this season. They’re still a very respectable 31-21, but that puts them on pace for “just” 96.5 wins. That would place them well below their preseason over/under, and with the Phillies massively exceeding expectations, they may have to settle for a Wild Card spot instead of the NL East crown. The Braves also recently lost Ronald Acuna Jr. for the year, so it’s been far from an ideal start.
Things don’t figure to get any easier for them on Wednesday. They’ll be facing MacKenzie Gore, who has had a solid year for the Nationals. He owns a 3.04 ERA and a 3.63 xERA, and his strikeout numbers are all well above average. The Braves’ offense hasn’t been quite as good this season against left-handed pitchers, so it’s a spot where they could struggle to score runs.
If that happens, they’re not likely to get a ton of help from their starting pitcher. Spencer Schwellenbach will be making the jump straight from Double-A to make his first start at the major league level. He only had two starts above High-A before getting the call-up, so this is as aggressive a promotion as you’ll ever see. Schwellenbach has had plenty of success in the minor leagues, but he’s never faced hitters like the ones he’ll see on Wednesday.
+130 feels like a good price tag to fade someone making their first career MLB start. Schwellenbach may be a good pitcher, but it probably won’t happen right away.
