2022: where the slant boys become slant men...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:
- Is Michael Thomas good to go?
- Kendall's Bets: 5 rookie prop bets to make
- Two starting TEs don't get new contracts
- My guys: Jordan's Top 3 most drafted players
- Team preview: Green Bay Packers
- It’s 7/15. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
The Saints might be the most "mystery box" team in the entire league headed into 2022.
Here's all the moving parts:
- A star RB who may or may not be suspended (we have our opinions on Alvin Kamara, but it's still up in the air)
- A QB coming off a torn ACL that shortened his 2021 year in Jameis Winston
- A new head coach in Dennis Allen
- An older rookie drafted 11th overall, Chris Olave
- A former alpha WR who missed all of last season with an ankle/foot injury and has only played seven total games over the past two seasons.
The latter is, of course, Michael Thomas and he might be the biggest mystery of them all. The market has reacted accordingly, with Thomas falling all the way into the 80s in most Underdog drafts:
That said, we're starting to get some hints that he might be ready to go. Nick Underhill, the most plugged in Saints beat reporter there is, had this to say recently on Twitter:
Everything I'm hearing about Mike Thomas is optimistic. So, I'll go 11 wins until we see reason to think differently. twitter.com/josephpelsfan/…
Teams are always optimistic, but if Thomas is ready for the start of training camp and Kamara isn't suspended, things could really start to fall into place for the Saints.
When we're not drafting best ball teams, we do a little sports betting. Our Senior Analyst & Director of Social, Kendall Valenzuela, shares some of her favorite bets on the board right now...
The light is starting to brighten at the end of the tunnel as the NFL season is just under eight weeks away. Let’s dive into some 2022 rookie player props to pass the time. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings.
💰 Drake London: o764.5 Receiving yards (-115) & o4.5 TDs(-140)
The Atlanta Falcons took Drake London with the eighth overall pick to pair with TE Kyle Pitts while under the guidance of Marcus Mariota (maybe Desmond Ridder, but I digress). London enters a shallow WR room as the obvious No. 1 WR. The Falcons’ win total sits at five (the second-lowest ahead of only the Texans). Fantasy Life’s’ projections for London are 806 receiving yards and 4.7 touchdowns, which makes me confident in betting both the over on receiving yards and touchdowns.
💰 Chris Olave: o719.5 Receiving Yards (-125) & o4.5 TDs (+100)
Chris Olave was drafted by the New Orleans Saints with the 11th overall pick and is entering a somewhat questionable situation. Olave is ready to perform at the pro level, and the pieces around him could elevate his play. Alvin Kamara still has a potential suspension looming over him, but Drew Davenport reported that a trial could get pushed out late into the fall. More good news is that everything about Michael Thomas’ return is “optimistic”. Olave is a polished route runner with the potential to have a bigger workload if the injury bug strikes again. With everything trending in the right direction for this Saints offense, I like the over on Olave’s receiving yards and touchdowns.
💰 Aidan Hutchinson: o7.25 regular season sacks (-125)
Just trying to keep you all on your toes by throwing in a defensive rookie prop. The Lions snagged Aidan Hutchinson No. 2 overall in the draft in an attempt to bring the team back to relevancy. Pro Football Focus projects Hutchinson to record 9.4 sacks if he earns 450 pass-rushing snaps. If Hutchinson has a nine-sack season, that would account for roughly one-third of Detroit’s total production from 2021 (30). Hit that over.
💪 Everyone is bulking up. Including this Bears WR.
⛔ No contract for you, no contract for you! Two tight ends will play this season on their one-year franchise deals.
🤑 How to win $1,000,000 on Underdog. Hayden Winks looks at what the best regular season teams looked like in BBMII for a blueprint on how to win the million dollar regular season prize this year.
🐶 A Fantasy Life Puppy draft. Pete and Kendall drafted a fun team last night. Check it out.
We can tell you which players we like, but it's better if we put our money where our mouth's are. Below our Director of Content, Jordan Fiegleman, shares the players he’s selected the most so far on Underdog and why he can’t stop clicking on them in drafts.
This summer on Underdog Fantasy, where first-time depositors can get up to a $100 deposit match by using code LIFE, I’ve completed 147 total drafts, spread across Best Ball Mania 3, the Puppy & Puppy 2. And in those drafts, 41% of the time, I've ended up with teams that would be considered to be Zero RB.
I'm a sick man.
My portfolio of players reflects those drafting tendencies, so let's dive in.
Michael Carter (ADP: 144; Jordan's Exposure: 32% )
In yesterday’s newsletter, Professor Pete made his case for Breece Hall as a player to invest in before his ADP rises over the next month. I completely agree with the perspective that Hall’s ADP will rise, but I think Hall is too expensive at his current ADP of 45.
Instead, let's take a look at the RB2 for the Jets.
As a rookie in 2021, Carter amassed just shy of 1,000 yards from scrimmage in 14 games while showing the ability to be involved in all facets of the game. He was targeted an average of 3.9 times per game and was efficient with those targets, converting them into 36 receptions throughout his shortened rookie campaign.
Carter also displayed an impressive ability to be elusive. Per PFF, Carter forced 38 missed tackles on 128 attempts combined from his rushing and receiving production. If you’re wondering, that rate has Carter leading the NFL in forced tackles per touch among qualified RBs.
Hall can, and probably will, be the best rookie RB in fantasy this season, but Carter will not disappear. Since the NFL Draft, Carter’s ADP has dropped almost 78 spots from a high of 67. Volume is king for RBs, but Carter has shown he can make the most of his opportunities.
If you’re drafting Zero RB, target Michael Carter.
Raheem Mostert (ADP:191; Jordan's Exposure: 31% )
When drafting Zero RB teams, I do my best to target players that fit into a few different categories.
- RBs in ambiguous situations
- Contingency-based plays, or handcuffs
- Pass-catching backs.
Mostert isn't a pass-catching back, but if you squint hard enough, you can argue that the Dolphins might have the most ambiguous backfield in the NFL.
Chase Edmonds is currently the lead dog, but new head coach Mike McDaniel has shown how much he values having options at the RB position. During his five years coordinating the 49er’s running game, 5 players registered 200 or more carries:
"You've got to realize running backs, collectively ... you have about 300 to 400-some touches by that position."- McDaniel
I expect this trend to continue in Miami, and when it comes to value vs. upside, I would rather have Mostert at an ADP of 191 than Edmonds at 105. Especially when you factor in the other RBs on the roster in Sony Michel and Miles Gaskin.
This is shaping up to be a true timeshare situation, and I think Edmonds's position as top dog isn't as firmly entrenched as the market clearly does.
Mostert missed almost all of last season with a knee injury after struggling with ankle injuries in 2020, and in his seven seasons in the NFL, he's played in just 59 of a potential 113 games. So yeah, that’s not great, but if Mostert can return to form, we will have a serious value on our hands.
I would be lying if I said I wasn't concerned about Mostert’s health, but at an ADP of 191, I think this is a value too good to pass up.
Speaking of a value that is too good to pass up, the Puppy 2 is filling fast! Hop into a draft before it's too late for your chance to turn $5 into $75k!
Join us on Underdog! first-time depositors get up to a $100 deposit match with promo code LIFE:
The season is fast approaching, which means it is time for us to get to know all of these NFL teams and who we should be drafting and fading after a busy offseason. In today's team preview, Kevin Tompkins the Green Bay Packers.
The last time we saw the Packers in action, they were at home and on the losing end of a 13-10 contest with the 49ers in the Divisional Round. 90% of the receptions and 77% of the targets for the Packers in that game went to two players — Aaron Jones and Davante Adams. Jones remains, but Adams was surprisingly shipped out of town for two draft picks in the offseason. ✌️
The Packers are still a favorite in the NFC and the favorite in the NFC North per BetMGM. Still, a team that could only muster 10 points in a home playoff game while losing their top pass-catcher — that seems pretty sub-optimal, right? Luckily, the Packers still employ Aaron Rodgers, whose “will he/won’t he” trade saga fit for a daytime network soap opera concluded with a new contract and $153m in guaranteed money.
⚙️ Offseason changes
- Signed WR Sammy Watkins in free agency.
- Selected WRs Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Samari Toure in the 2022 NFL Draft.
- Traded WR Davante Adams to the Raiders for first and second-round selections in the 2022 NFL Draft.
- Lost WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown in free agency.
✨ Team vibes
Lots of people go out and buy a sports car for their mid-life crisis. Some travel around the world. Aaron Rodgers decides to date a supposed witch (or not a witch?) and gets his first tattoo. Such is life for the man who has won league MVP the last two seasons.
On the field, Rodgers has to find a way to retain his back-to-back MVP production without Adams and MVS. Rodgers’ incredible efficiency boosts his fantasy floor but not to the level of a competent rushing floor that QBs higher in ADP have. He’s an excellent value just outside the top-12 QBs, but his ceiling will depend on who steps up amongst the pass-catching group.
If we’re lining up players who could lead the Packers in targets in 2022, you could have more than a half-dozen realistic options. There’s Allen Lazard, 2022 second-round pick Christian Watson, 2022 fourth-round pick Romeo Doubs, and Sammy Watkins — who thinks he’s an alien. Add in holdovers Aaron Jones, A.J Dillon, Robert Tonyan, Randall Cobb, and Amari Rodgers, and we’ve got options here. I’m usually drafting the cheapest options, but this is a “choose your adventure” pass-catching group if there ever was one.
As far as the Packers running backs go, both Jones and Dillon are studs. Jones is drafted higher than Dillon, but Dillon has standalone fantasy value independent from Jones with contingent value should Jones get injured. If you’re looking for a cheaper way to play the Packers backfield, Dillon and his over 1,000 yards from scrimmage in 2021 seem like the value play with tremendous upside. Plus, you know, the thicc quads are part of the package.
🎯Draft targets
- Aaron Jones (Underdog ADP 17.5, RB9)
- A.J. Dillon (Underdog ADP 67.6, RB24)
- Aaron Rodgers (Underdog ADP 105.6, QB13)
- Robert Tonyan (Underdog ADP 147.1, TE16)
- Sammy Watkins (Underdog ADP 171.8, WR75)
- Romeo Doubs (Underdog ADP 214.2, WR100)
👋Draft fades
- Allen Lazard (Underdog ADP 80.7, WR39)
- Christian Watson (Underdog ADP 116.2, WR53)
Please enjoy
