🔥 Is The QB Trade Market Heating Up?

by Peter Overzet

1 year ago

If you lack clarity, consider a darkness retreat...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Pristine Auction:

Two QBs in the news.
Game Preview. QB History
Betting Preview. An UNDERvalued bet
Free Agency Files: Tight Ends
It's 2/8. Take it away, Dwain McFarland...

The Raiders have a big decision to make on Derek Carr in the next week, thanks to a $40.4 million dollar guarantee that will trigger on February 15th. With the deadline quickly approaching, Las Vegas granted New Orleans permission to speak with their QB.

Sources: The #Saints invited QB Derek Carr for a visit and the #Raiders have granted permission for that to happen. The plan is for a visit tomorrow. Carr, who has a no-trade clause, is doing due diligence and no trade is imminent.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet)
Feb 7, 2023

A trade to the Saints would reunite Carr with the coach who started him as a rookie — Dennis Allen. The Raiders' asking price isn't believed to be high, but one potential hangup could be Carr's stance on reworking his deal.

Themes emerged from talks w/ teams on Derek Carr:
-Inquiring teams want to rework deal, which they believe Carr probably won't do
-Raiders' asking price modest. One NFL source said 3rd rd pick could get it done
-N.O. believed to be only team engaged to extent of visit as of now
— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN)
Feb 8, 2023

The Saints are currently in salary cap hell, ranking 32nd in available space, so it will take some creativity to strike a deal, but it isn't impossible.

Another potential QB trade candidate — Aaron Rodgers — chimed in on where he is in the process of deciding if he will play in 2023. Maybe darkness will bring him clarity...

Aaron Rodgers says on @PatMcAfeeShow that he's going on an "darkness retreat" in a couple weeks. It's 4 days, complete darkness, just himself, in a little house.
"I've had a number of friends who've done it and they had profound experiences."
He expects a decision after that.
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate)
Feb 7, 2023

Easy there, buddy.

While you were gawking over the latest addition to my man cave, your appetizer plate got a little close.

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LET'S GO TREASURE HUNTING

It's time for the big game, and we have you covered from a fantasy and betting perspective in our Game Hub! Now, let's take a look at the Super Bowl matchup, take it away, Chris...

Well, there’s no doubt about this year’s Super Bowl. The NFL scriptwriters nailed it. Just look at all of the narratives heading into Sunday.

First and foremost, the big game will feature two black quarterbacks for the first time in NFL history. On one side, Patrick Mahomes continues to add to his legacy, while fans of Jalen Hurts squabble over his collegiate backstory.

Meanwhile, the Kelce brothers are cracking jokes. The human element of football has brought us enough storylines to keep us occupied for the last couple of weeks. But it’s time to dig into the onfield sequences that will earn one of these teams a championship.

On the Chiefs’ side, it’s all about No. 15 and how the Eagles slow him down. This week’s conversation has centered on the potential OL/DL mismatch and Philadelphia’s ability to get home. Makes sense.

The Eagles’ front had (an injured) Brock Purdy and Josh Johnson in hell on 13 of their combined 20 dropbacks. And Cincinnati got through Kansas City’s protection on 42.0% of Mahomes’ attempts in the conference matchup. But even if Philly gets through, getting him down is another issue.

Mahomes ended the regular season with the lowest pressure-to-sack rate (10.8%), and even with the ankle sprain, he’s continued to evade negative plays. So the battle isn’t solely in the trenches. Philadelphia’s pass rush will have to work in sync with their coverage. Sounds simple, right? Well, let’s see how well this idea has worked over the ’22 season.

During the regular season, Mahomes was top 12 in every significant passing stat (minimum of 100 dropbacks). And naturally, he’s risen to (or close to) the top for each metric in the playoffs. His aDOT vaults from 5.4 to 8.6 once he feels the heat from the defense, and, per PFF’s Big Time Throw Rate, Mahomes can still generate explosives. But with a shaky receiving corps, he’ll need a reliable option outside Travis Kelce.

Throughout the playoffs, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has the second-most targets when Mahomes gets pressured. He became the Chiefs’ WR1 by default after Kadarius Toney’s and JuJu Smith-Schuster’s early exits, but his 1.88 YPRR ranks third amongst all pass-catchers playing on Sunday. MVS has run 41.0% of his routes from the slot, which was the primary path to attacking the Eagles until Avonte Maddox returned. Maddox may shore up their run defense, but Valdes-Scantling (and Mahomes) should test his deep speed if Philly’s pass rush gets through Kansas City’s offensive line.

However, the opposite has been true for the Eagles’ aerial attack. Jalen Hurts was 21st in adjusted completion percentage when pressured before his shoulder injury and, at 58.3%, ranks 8th through two playoff games. But he’s still gotten it done on the ground.

I only used designed runs here to highlight how integral Hurts’ mobility is to the offense. He’s moved the chains more often than any quarterback this season. His shoulder has hampered his ability to drive through tackles, as his forced missed tackle rate dropped from 23.6% to 11.1% in the playoffs. We see the effect in his EPA rank. But teams have used other methods to beat Kansas City’s pass rush.

Joe Burrow got rid of the ball in less than 2.5 seconds on 53.1% of his attempts in the AFC conference game. Throws of that type netted him over half of his first downs (7) and a touchdown to Tee Higgins. There’s no doubt Hurts boasts a better offensive line with two All-Pro offensive linemen in front of him. Plus, his quick game has been effective during the playoffs.

It’s a two-game sample, but Hurts ranks fourth out of the playoff passers. He has a higher adjusted completion percentage than Mahomes, with more first downs created. And while his aDOT reduces to 4.3 on these short dropback concepts, his passing options remain the same.

A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert are within one route run of each other on Hurts’ attempts of five air yards or fewer. And collectively, they’ve hoarded 22 of his 30 attempts in this area. But Goedert has a slight edge with the most YAC of the group. Hayden Hurst gave the Chiefs similar troubles during the conference matchup and narrowly missed out on a score early in the game. If Hurts has to rely on distributing the ball quickly, expect Goedert to exploit the Chief’s coverage with all eyes on the quarterback.

💡 Travis Kelce doesn't fade under the bright lights. This would be his best season.

♨️ No team starts hotter. That's a lot of opening-drive TDs!

🤑 Travis Kelcie is really good in the playoffs. You should bet this.

👀 The Vikings have a new coordinator. Big changes could be coming.

💰 This QB has nothing left to prove. Extension coming?

❓ Is Jalen Hurts a top 5 QB? He has a STRONG argument.

❤️️ One of the greatest QB-Coach duos ever. They still have a lot of love.

👅 He did a great job as an interim head coach. Now he lands in a tasty spot.

With the Xs and Os covered in the Game Preview, let's take a look at where the money is flowing and some recent betting trends for the Chiefs and Eagles. LaMarca is here to keep you sharp...

The final game of the 2022-23 NFL season is nearly upon us. The Chiefs and Eagles will square off in Glendale, AZ, with the Eagles listed as 1.5-point favorites. The Chiefs actually opened as slight favorites, but the line moved significantly in the Eagles' favor. The Eagles got as high as -2.5 last Monday, but the number has since moved back in the Chiefs' direction.

There has been a smidge of sharp activity on the Chiefs, but the Eagles have received most of the action. They’ve racked up 69% of the spread bets and 71% of the dollars, so they have been the clear preferred target for the public.

Being on the public side in the Super Bowl hasn’t necessarily been a bad thing. The team with the majority of the spread dollars has gone on to win the final game on five of the past six occasions.

When the line moves in the Super Bowl, following the movement has historically been a good idea. With a line move of at least two points, the team with the move in their favor – the Eagles would qualify in this spot – have gone 14-4 against the spread. Following the line movement is always important in NFL betting, but it’s particularly important with so much money on the table.

There are some strong betting trends that support both sides. On the Chiefs’ side of this matchup, it’s very tempting to grab the points with Patrick Mahomes.

He has historically been elite as a small favorite or underdog, posting a record of 18-6-1 against the spread as an underdog or a favorite of fewer than 3.5 points. As an underdog specifically, he’s a sparkling 7-1-1 against the spread.

Additionally, Andy Reid has historically been one of the best coaches in the business, with additional time to prepare. He’s a ridiculous 30-6 straight up following a bye week, and he’s 22-14 ATS. As an underdog, a straight-up win would be more than good enough to cover the number.

On the Eagles' side, Jalen Hurts has historically taken care of business when expected. He owns a record of 21-4 straight up when favored, and history suggests that if Hurts wins straight up, he’ll cover. This spread is obviously very low, and the Super Bowl winner has gone 47-7-2 ATS in the Super Bowl.

As for the total, most of the action has been on the over. There has been a bit of sharp activity on the over, which has pushed the number up to 50.5

However, 50.5 has been a big number this season. There have been 27 games with a total of at least 50 points this year, and the over has gone just 9-18. Most defenses are focused on limiting the big plays, which results in long, sustained drives. Both teams might be able to put points on the board, but you need points quickly to hit the over on a big number.

Finally, there have been 13 Super Bowls with a total of at least 50 points, and the over has gone just 3-9-1. Add it all up, and there’s a reason to believe in the under in this spot.

With the NFL offseason quickly approaching, it is time to dive into available free agents. Today, we turn our attention to the TEs, where Dwain identifies the top options using historical data profiles for top-12 performers.

Top-12 Fantasy TE Data Profiles (2011 to 2022):

Despite battling an MCL injury for almost half of the season, Schultz came through for fantasy managers when it mattered most. From Week 12 to Week 17, he averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game and notched three top-four performances.

Schultz finished the season as the No. 9 fantasy TE, demonstrating mid-range TE1 upside in his ability to earn targets when compared to data since 2011. However, his ability to squeeze additional value out of targets wasn’t as strong compared to his 2022 peers or historical thresholds.

Schultz 2022 Data Profile (min 250 routes including playoffs through championship):

From Week 13 through the Divisional Round loss in the playoffs to the 49ers, Schultz returned to a full-time role. During that stretch, his average target share jumped from 17% to 22%. Schultz has also improved his TPRR over the last three seasons, averaging 15%, 18%, and 21%.

While target earning isn’t an issue for Schultz, his YPRR over the last three years (1.11, 1.47, and 1.43) is just below the top-12 threshold for the position since 2011 (1.54). His average PFF receiving grade of 68.7 – which focuses on making the most of opportunities – echoes that sentiment.

Schultz has mid-range TE1 upside in a pass-heavy and/or high-quality offense (TD upside) as the No. 2 or No. 3 target. In a low pass-volume and/or low-quality offense, his value takes a significant hit due to his low-end efficiency profile.

Engram took the fantasy world by storm as the TE5 in his rookie season, averaging 11.6 fantasy points per game with 22% TPRR and 1.45 YPRR.

His underlying data profile remained strong, along with his points per game (11.3 and 13.7) over the following two years, but injuries limited him to 19 total games. Then in 2020 and 2021, the former first-rounder fell to career-lows of 8.9 and 7.0 points per game, with his TPRR (15%) and YPRR (0.89) bottoming out in 2021.

This offseason, he signed with Jacksonville on a one-year prove-it deal for $9M at the age of 28, where he rebounded with a top-five fantasy finish.

Engram 2022 Data Profile (min 250 routes including playoffs through championship):

From the most important perspective, target earning, Engram has now demonstrated mid-range to low-end TE1 ability in four of six seasons.

As a playmaker, Engram hasn’t fully lived up to his high-end athletic profile. Engram is above average when it comes to yards after the catch (6.6) for tight ends, but historically he has operated as an underneath option, which played out again in 2022 with a 6.4-yard aDOT. When you add it all up, his 7.2 yards per target are below the top-12 historical threshold of 8.3 yards.

Engram offers a low-end TE1 profile that could push for mid-range TE1 status in a pass-happy offense with less target competition than Jacksonville. The Jaguars will add Calvin Ridley to Christian Kirk and Zay Jones in 2023, which could further dilute Engram’s offensive equity.

Gesicki had three consecutive top-12 fantasy finishes entering the 2022 season. However, the Dolphins' offense required a tight end that could run block, which turned Gesicki into a passing-down-only option. He battled for slot reps in that role, and his route participation fell to a four-year low of 55%.

As a result, the former second-round draft pick notched his worst fantasy campaign since his rookie season, averaging a mere 6.0 points per game.

Gesicki 2022 Data Profile (min 250 routes including playoffs through championship):

To get a full understanding of the soon-to-be 28-year-old’s potential in a new offense, we must rewind the clock to 2020 and 2021. In those two seasons, Gesicki delivered a 19% TPRR and 1.51 YPRR, both low-end TE1-worthy marks. He also registered 79.4 and 70.8 PFF receiving grades in those two seasons.

Gesicki hasn’t been much of a YAC threat (3.1), but he can attack deeper portions of the field, as indicated by his 10-plus-yard ADOT in three of the last four seasons. He is also a plus threat in scoring position, garnering 26% or more of the Dolphins' end zone targets in three of the last four years.

Gesicki has TE1 upside in a pass-first offense that isn’t concerned with his run-blocking ability. If he ever eclipses 80% route participation, he could push for a top-six finish with some TD luck.

WHO ELSE MADE THE LIST!?!?