If you aren't hand-timing every player's 40 time yourself, then you are getting outworked...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:
- The polarizing Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- The Jets and Browns add WRs
- What now? Fantasy football inception
- Dynasty Rookie Profile: Jahmyr Gibbs
- It's 3/23. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
Let's call a spade a spade: this isn't a great rookie WR class.
We've been spoiled the past few years with WR classes that are both deep and topped off with true superstar talents like Justin Jefferson (2020), Ja'Marr Chase (2021), and Garrett Wilson (2022).
The 2023 crop does not have the depth or high-end talent like those classes, which has turned the conversation around the presumed top WR off the board, Ohio State's Jaxon Smith-Njigba, into a contentious debate:
📣 The Detractors say...
Hey, he's too slow (more on that in a sec) to be an elite NFL WR. And the sample size on his college production is too small after he suffered an injury in early 2022 that essentially wiped out his entire junior year.
📣 The Fanboys say...
Hey, hold up. Smith-Njigba earned an impressive 23% target share as a 19-year-old sophomore while competing with Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave for targets and torched the agility drills at the combine.
⏱️ JSN runs the 40
Ohio State held its Pro Day yesterday, and all eyes, err, stopwatches, were on Jaxon after he didn't run the 40 at the Combine. Depending on which watch you consult, he ran either a 4.48, a 4.52, or a 4.4696969.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba did run the 40 at Ohio State’s Pro Day. Please use your home stop watches to figure out the time
— Bill Landis (@BillLandis25)
Mar 22, 2023
Regardless of what your Casio spits out, that's a perfectly adequate time.
Not all WRs can be Calvin Johnson. Heck, even a guy like Jefferson was considered a "safe" and "high floor/low ceiling" prospect coming into the league. Strong college production at an early age and an ability to consistently earn targets is a far more predictive metric than speed for translating success to the NFL.
You can put your stopwatch away: Jaxon Smith-Njigba is going to be just fine.
The real question, though, is whether the real prize from Ohio State is still a year away...
“Like window shopping at a Lamborghini dealership for the model that doesn’t come out until next year.”
Text from an NFL scout at Ohio State pro-day today after watching Marvin Harrison Jr. run routes
— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid)
Mar 22, 2023
🤝 A WR trade!
Not to be outdone by the Ohio State Pro Day theatrics, the Jets and Browns made some moves at WR yesterday.
First, the Jets signed Mecole Hardman to a 1-year deal, and then before the ink could even dry, they flipped WR Elijah Moore to the Browns for a one-round pick upgrade that will give them back-to-back second-round picks:
Compensation: Jets are trading Elijah Moore and their 3rd-round pick to the Browns for their 2nd-round pick, per source. twitter.com/adamschefter/s…
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)
Mar 22, 2023
Considering Moore had been banished to the shadow realm last year, it's hard not to consider a change of scenery a plus for his fantasy prospects.
With Wilson and Lazard in NY, was unlikely Moore was going to get enough looks to be fantasy relevant. This gives him a chance - as I’ve written before, CLE is going to be much more pass happy this year. Good NFL a move for Cleveland as well. twitter.com/adamschefter/s…
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Mar 22, 2023
As for Hardman, let's call it a neutral move for his value. He'll have a downgrade at QB play but should earn a few more touches in New York than he did in KC. And he's already promising more than just jet sweeps.
Now please, for all that is holy, finalize this Aaron Rodgers nonsense...
Welcome, degenerates. We don’t unplug just because the NFL does. You’re reading this newsletter because you’re here for the long haul. “What now, Cooter?” Each week I’ll break down ways to survive the off-season.
🤝 Survival Tip #4: Fantasy Football Inception
Let’s be honest. Your league just isn’t as invested in the rumblings of the NFL offseason as you are. They’ve unplugged from listening to podcasts and reading fantasy newsletters.
But not you. And now it’s time to plant some seeds. 🌱
It’s time to start feeding your league selective information to influence their draft strategy, without them knowing it was your idea, of course.
That’s right, we’re going full inception. Here are some tips to get you through the week:
🎯 Identify your targets
- Which league mate is most susceptible to your influence? Some fantasy players will always be suspicious. Avoid those guys; It’s too dangerous.
- Which league mate is drafting before you next season? Are you hoping for Justin Jefferson to fall to 1.02? You need to ensure they don’t snipe your guy on draft day.
- Lastly, identify which players you’re “out” on for 2023 so you can whisper sweet nothings about them all offseason.
♟️ Play chess not checkers
If we’re planting seeds of doubt around players we like and hyping up players we don’t, our moves must be calculated.
Never go in with a direct bait and switch.
If you’re all-in on TD vulture king Jamaal Williams, like me, you can’t simply trash-talk him in the group chat and expect to get away with it.
Focus on peripheral players. Plant seeds that the Saints' offense isn’t any good. Or draw attention to other players with similar ADP by tempting your league to debate about Rashaad Penny.
The opportunities are endless but don’t make it obvious.
🚩 Trust no one
Even Leonardo DiCaprio didn’t know what was real in Inception. You should apply the same level of skepticism to your fantasy leagues.
Anything sent from your league mates could, in fact, be foul play.
Actually, now that I think about it, where did I read about Jamaal Williams in the first place? Was his interview sent in the group chat? Sh*t, it’s time to wake up! WAKE UP!
🤔 Can you guess who has the most receiving yards in the NFL since 2015? The answer.
💸 A new billionaire is interested in purchasing the Commanders. Good luck with that pronunciation.
🤯 Could the Panthers shock us with their No. 1 pick? Sounds like it.
✉️ Who made the best moves in free agency? The envelope, please...
🚑 How concerned should you be about injuries in fantasy football? Great rundown from Ian.
🐆 The Jags add a RB. This is your new Travis Etienne handcuff.
💪 The best pro-day performance of all time? Um, what?
🙏 Get better soon, Foster. We're pulling for you.
The NFL Draft is fast approaching so it's time to dig into the 2023 rookie class. Today Chris Allen profiles a prospect who could be the second RB off the board...
👑 Jahmyr Gibbs
- Rookie Draft ADP: 6
- Underdog ADP: 60
It should be no surprise why NFL scouts and coaches are interested in the Alabama product.
He can do it all.
In his final season, you could find Gibbs on the SEC top-10 leaderboards for rushing yards, touchdowns, and kickoff return yards per attempt. His sudden acceleration made Gibbs a threat as a rusher but also as a receiver.
Bijan Robinson will hold the attention of every fantasy manager regardless of format, but Jahmyr Gibbs's skillset should not get lost in his shadow.
📈 Pros
💥 Explosive Runner
Gibbs resolved any questions about his speed at the NFL Combine. After running a 4.36 40-yard dash, his athletic score matches the tape.
He consistently displayed his patience and ability to process running angles to create explosives for Alabama. Of Gibbs’s 850 rushing yards in 2022, 466 came on attempts generating more than 15+ yards on the play. But I realize the volatility associated with such a stat.
Gibbs notched a 27.2% explosive run rate, ranking him seventh among his positional classmates. But, as I mentioned, it was just one year after transferring to Alabama.
Working behind the Crimson Tide’s offensive line allowed Gibbs to average the sixth-most yards before contact (2.93). So, a two-year sample, with any level of stability between seasons, would highlight Gibbs’s burst and vision. And he showed those skills in his final year at Georgia Tech.
Gibbs’s two-year explosive run rate sits at 24.0%, ahead of other prospects getting early-round buzz, like Robinson (23.0%) and Auburn’s Tank Bigsby (22.0%). While we can’t expect to see him dashing into the end zone every week at the NFL level, he could quickly carve out a role on third downs and two-minute scenarios.
🙌 Efficient Receiver
Gibbs in open space was a nightmare for defenders.
He can shift gears without notice creating highlight reels to watch on repeat. But his down-to-down efficiency gets avoided like the players trying to tackle him. However, he’s hard to miss when compared to his peers.
Gibbs’ had the team's third-highest targets per route run in 2022 (21%).
Against the other RBs in the class, he’s tied for first, and his efficiency as a receiver commanded more looks. Only Kenny McIntosh (2.42) has more yards per route run (YPRR) than Gibbs at 1.62. And with a positive aDOT (1.3), it’s safe to assume Gibbs has some route running to his game.
With concerns about his size, Gibbs can work alongside an early-down plodder and still be a valuable fantasy asset as a rookie. And as a functional runner, using zone-blocking concepts would enable teams to rotate him in without tipping their hand.
📉 Cons
🧩 Doesn't Fit An Every-Down Mold
Uncreative coaches or GMs might have a tough time slotting Gibbs into their offense due to his size.
At 5’9” and 199 lbs., questions about his pass-blocking or if he can churn out extra yards will come up over the next month. And realistically, Gibbs will have a tough time answering them.
I took a two-year sample, and Gibbs fell into the bottom half in a couple of key metrics. His inability to fight through first contact wasn’t a constant issue, but you can find some plays he’d want back.
However, stats like yards after contact (YAC) per attempt and forced missed tackle rate doesn’t correlate to fantasy success. And his coaches at the next level will aid in his development to work through arm tackles and pick up those critical 1-2 yards.
Ultimately, it comes down to which team selects him before we can speculate on his role.
👑 Fantasy Impact
We all know what we’re getting with Gibbs as a prospect.
His high-end receiving skillset instantly puts him on the mid-range RB2 radar, as his Underdog ADP sits at the 5-6 turn.
His dual-threat talent solidifies him as the RB2 for this class in dynasty formats. Few have the same blend of fluidity and burst necessary to carry early-round opportunity cost in rookie drafts. But his landing spot will give us more insight into projected usage, as any concerns about his size will be made clear by whichever veterans he gets paired with to start his career.
