It's a Super Weekend To Be Wild!!!

It is 2077. Jordan Love will be the guy in 2078, but Aaron Rodgers isn't retiring yet...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by the Fantasy Life Game Hub:

• We have a BIG WR upgrade!
• Rankings Update. Bell cow incoming?
• Bets from the group chat. Two sneaky overs.
• It's Wild Card Saturday, man.
• Its 1/14. Take it away Dwain McFarland...

Super Wild Card Weekend is here. Okay, fine, we can call it Wild Card Weekend if you want. Either way, we can't have any real fun in the NFL without running down the chaos invoked by injuries, and the playoffs aren't any different. 

Let's take a look at two players that will be impacted on the Saturday slate.

🚀 Joshua Palmer Gets a Boost

Mike Williams is out for Saturday’s game after Brandon Staley elected to play him in a meaningless game against Denver last weekend. This is pure negligence.

After an initial X-ray and MRI came back negative, #Chargers WR Mike Williams underwent further testing that revealed a fracture in his back that likely will sideline him a couple of weeks, per sources. Big loss for L.A. entering Saturday’s playoff against the #Jaguars.

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero)
Jan 13, 2023

While a door closes for Williams, another one opens for Palmer. The second-year WR played well from Week 11 to Week 13 with Keenan Allen while Williams was out.

Josh Palmer and Keenan Allen have played almost three full games together without Mike Williams this year.

Palmer in those games:

8.7 targets per game (25%)
6.7 receptions
74 yards
0.7 TDs
18.1 fantasy points

Note: 30.6-point explosion in Keenan's first week back

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland)
Jan 13, 2023

The Jaguars allow 250 yards receiving per game in non-overtime play – the third-most on the Wild Card slate.

Palmer climbs to WR16 and has WR1 upside in a contest with the second-highest game total and his reception prop bet on BetMGM is JUICY.

💪🏿 Tyler Lockett Nearing Full Strength?

Lockett was removed from the injury report after battling shin and hand injuries over the last few weeks. In Week 18, the new real-estate agent registered an 87% route participation despite the injuries and delivered 15.4 fantasy points on four receptions for 54 yards and a TD.

Over the last few years, we have seen the Seahawks prioritize Lockett against zone-heavy teams, and the 49ers run the second-most zone in the NFL (79%). It is a tough matchup against a good defense, but the veteran WR’s yards per route run (YPRR) leap from 1.37 against man to 2.14 versus zone.

San Francisco boasts the No. 1 run defense in the NFL, which could push Seattle to attack via the air early and often. However, for the Seahawks to pull off an upset, Lockett likely comes through with a big game.

Lockett is the WR15 this weekend but carries a top-five potential.

📝You Ever Cheat Off of the Really Smart Kids in School?

Yeah…Me Neither (😉). But if you did, then you’re going to love the Fantasy Life Game Hub.

You see, the NFL Playoffs are like school finals. They test you on everything you learned during the year.

The best teams competing in the toughest matchups (pretending not to see Seattle or Miami) means there are no easy answers. Until Now.

Pop Quiz: The Game Hub has which of the following features?

• A. Game Previews
• B. Betting Picks
• C. Player Stats
• D. Matchup Stats
• E. All of the Above and Much More!

Take all the stress out of the test day by getting the answers ahead of time at The Game Hub because the only C’s we are interested in are C-Notes!

Going with your gut can only get you so far. Use our industry-leading rankings to gain an edge over your league mates. Need help? Don't worry, Dwain has you covered.

📈 Risers

📈 QB – Kirk Cousins

Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow are the clear Tier 1 QBs of the 2022 season. Justin Fields would have joined them with health, but after that, Cousins leads the Tier 2 options with a QB7 finish.

Over his last three full games (excludes Week 18), Cousins is on a hot streak, averaging the third-most fantasy points, and he draws one of the worst-graded PFF coverage units in the Giants (52.1). In Week 16, the Vikings dropped 299 yards and 3 TDs passing on the G-men, and Cousins registered his highest PFF passing grade of the season (90.7).

The Vikings rank above the league average in pass rate in all game scripts.

• Trailing by four-plus points: 74% (4th)
• Within three points: 66% (5th)
• Leading by four-plus points: 57% (5th)

With the third-highest team total in a game that might not feature much defense, Cousins is a SMASH play, ranking three spots ahead of expert consensus.

📈 RB – Jeff Wilson, Jr. 

Wilson carved out the starting role in Miami over the last three games, but he could get another bump with Raheem Mostert (thumb) out. Salvon Ahmed will also pick up some work, but Wilson dominated the passing-down work over the last three games – opening the door to an every-down type of workload.

We haven’t seen Wilson in a game without Mostert, but we have witnessed Mostert without Wilson. In Week 15, Mostert played 76% of snaps and bogarted 71% of the rushing attempts. He also took all the work inside the five and played on passing downs. Ahmed played 24% of snaps and accounted for 25% of the rushing attempts that game.

Jeff Wilson Jr. during Wild Card Weekend 📈

— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife)
Jan 12, 2023

The Dolphins are almost two-TD dogs to the Bills and battling multiple offensive line injuries, making it hard to get too excited about Wilson. However, he has 21 and 18 total opportunities (attempts plus targets) over the last two games, so 20-plus feels safe.

Wilson moves to RB12, up from RB16.

📉 Fallers 

📉 RB – J.K. Dobbins

It sounded like Dobbins might have to take on a more significant workload early in the week, with Gus Edwards earning a questionable designation after missing practice. Thankfully, Edwards is off the injury report and will play.

Dobbins averaged 14.3 attempts and 99.3 yards over his last four games, and in Week 17, he saw a season-high 68% of attempts. So there is still a chance that Dobbins pushes for 15-plus touches, but Edwards’ presence reduces his potential for a 20-touch outing. The third-year RB has averaged 25% in route participation since his return, limiting him to only two targets over four games.

The Ravens are nine-point dogs to the Bengals, which could present a challenge for Dobbins. Fortunately, Baltimore ranks above the league average in run rate in trailing, close and leading game scripts – which helps offset the potential of a super low-touch game.

Dobbins remains in the top 12 with the return of Edwards, but his ceiling takes a step back.

👀 Monitoring

👀 WR – Isaiah McKenzie

McKenzie picked up a hamstring injury on Wednesday and didn’t practice on Thursday or Friday. Officially, he is questionable to play, but this feels like a doubtful situation.

Jamison Crowder returned to practice, and the Bills opened his 21-day practice window, but it sounds like he is still a week away. That leaves Khalil Shakir, Cole Beasley and John Brown to earn extra snaps if McKenzie can’t go.

Shakir and Beasley have flip-flopped back and forth in route participation over the last three games. However, Shakir has led the way in two out of three games with 42%, 14% and 24% versus 11%, 29% and 0% for Beasley – who signed back to the active roster.

Assuming McKenzie is out, Shakir is a mid-range WR3 now, thanks to a six-game slate.

🏆 We've partnered with Sirius XM Fantasy on a FREE Playoff Pick'em contest! Sign up for your chance to win REAL prizes. 

🎉 He's staying!!! Rejoice, Rams fans.

🕧 Cousins likes the early games? Late games, not so much.

💰 Two QBs to target for different reasons. These lines are wrong. 

😎 Don't forget this postseason rule change. Don't sweat the coin flip.

🏋️‍♂️ Damn, Zack. You are a badass.

🤝 Thank Brandon Staley for this one. You can count on Keenan. 

❓ A week of RBs in DFS? Find out who to play and why. 

🎱 Does this mean he is likely the MVP? Signs point to yes.

🚔 If you want to talk to him, you need permission. Follow the rules.

Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what Eliot came up with for Wild Card Weekend...

🏃 Trevor Lawrence Over 14.5 Rushing Yards -115 BetMGM

We have Trevor Lawrence projected for 22.1 rushing yards, 7.6 more than his current line. However, I was eager to bet on Lawrence's over-rushing yards even before seeing our projection. A successful strategy for me over the years is betting on QB-rushing props in playoff games. QBs are more willing to put their body on the line on the biggest stages. This is Trevor Lawrence's first-ever playoff game, but he played six in college. In those games, he averaged 8.8 rush attempts compared to 5.7 rush attempts in non-playoff games. As the Jaguars look to attack the Chargers' bottom 5 run defense, look for them to take advantage of Lawrence’s legs in zone reads and for him to sail over this number.

📊 Elijah Mitchell Over 36.5 Rushing Yards -115 BetMGM

Mitchell is averaging 10 carries and 59.5 rushing yards per game when he and Christian McCaffrey suited up, rushing for 55 or more yards in 3 of 4 games. As 9.5-point home favorites against a Seahawks defense that has been abysmal against running backs, I expect that trend to continue. Since week 9, the Seahawks are allowing 129.4 yards per game on the ground and 4.95 yards per carry. Both Mitchell and McCaffrey should have big days.

The playoffs are finally here, and we have you covered from every possible angle. Game previews? Pshh, we got you. Need picks and plays from betting experts that you can trust? You're in the right place. Jonathan has you covered on the game previews, and our betting team is on standby. Let's get into it...

🏈 Seahawks at 49ers -9.5

On paper, this appears to be one of the most lopsided matchups of Wild Card weekend. San Francisco is favored by nearly 10 points and they have been gaining serious steam as one of the favorites in the NFC. 

These two teams met in Week 15 and the 49ers pulled out a 21-13 win. That game seems like a reasonable blueprint for what we could see on Saturday. Seattle was able to move the ball, but struggled to put up points as San Francisco played good defense and mistake-free offense to get the win.

From a fantasy perspective, it doesn’t get any better than Christian McCaffrey, who faces a soft Seattle run defense.

Since he joined San Francisco, CMC has been the RB2 in total scoring and is primed to be the focal point of the offense for as long as the 49ers remain alive in the playoffs.

The offense will continue to be led by rookie sensation Brock Purdy, who helped the 49ers close the season on an incredible winning streak and remains undefeated as a starter.

The team is also getting healthier around him, with both Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell returning to the lineup last week.

Seattle snuck into the playoffs thanks to the Lions beating the Packers in the final game of the regular season. The Seahawks can already count this year as a great success with how much they have exceeded expectations. Despite the Vegas line, Pete Carroll will have his guys believing they can take down their division rivals. 

Geno Smith had a tremendous season, but has faltered a bit down the stretch. Since Week 14, he hasn’t thrown for more than 250 yards in a game and has just one multi-TD game in that stretch as well.

A matchup with the vaunted San Francisco defense isn’t likely to result in a big fantasy day, but if he can at least play a clean game, like he did when these teams last met, it should allow Seattle to keep this one close.

Look, you already knew that this is going to be a TOUGH game for the Seahawks. Let's get to the new info. Betting Team, assemble. 

💰 Brock Purdy Under 28.5 Pass Attempts

Brock Purdy's pass attempt prop this week seems absurdly high considering the 49ers quarterback has only gone over this mark once in his last five starts.

He'll also be playing a Seattle team who ranks bottom 10 in defensive rush DVOA.

Look for Purdy to be in full "handoff mode" this week as Kyle Shanahan exploits a weak rush defense with Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey (among others).

🏈 Chargers @ Jaguars -2.5

This is one of the more underrated matchups of the week in my opinion. I’m excited to see what happens when one of the hottest teams in football, Jacksonville, faces off against a Chargers team with a penchant for playing in close games.

On one hand, the Jaguars have won six of their last seven and Trevor Lawrence has emerged to look like the star QB he was selected to be. On the other hand, Los Angeles is 5-3 this season in games that were decided by three points or fewer, while Jacksonville has only played in one such game all year. This type of close game experience should serve Los Angeles well in the playoffs. 

The Chargers are currently slight favorites on the road, but that could change before kickoff with the hype that has been building around the Jaguars. This Jacksonville team has a similar feel to last year’s Bengals, who got hot at the right time while their young, star QB announced himself to the league. Those kinds of narratives don’t have any impact on the football field, but it should make it easier for the public to buy into this team if they make it out of Round 1. 

As Dwain mentioned in the intro, the big news of Friday was the report that Mike Williams suffered a fracture in his back and will be out of action for 2-3 weeks. 

If you're a Chargers fan, I feel for you. If you're a football fan, I feel for you. If you're Brandon Staley, you should be ashamed. 

Enough negativity, let's dive into our best bets for this game. Geoff & Mark, take it away..

💰 Trevor Lawrence Under 35.5 Pass Attempts

The Jaguars matchup against a Chargers defense that allowed 5.4 yards per carry this year and ranked fourth-last in defensive rush DVOA. They also have a workhorse in Travis Etienne Jr. who led the NFL in total rush yards over expected this season.

Trevor Lawrence averaged just 28.0 pass attempts over the last three weeks of the year and projects for just 31.9 pass attempts on fantasy life this week -- making him a solid under-target.

💰 Chargers -2.5

The Chargers' significant edge on defense will be a deciding factor in a game featuring two young QBs making their playoff debut. Chargers pass defense is 6th in EPA per dropback (2nd in the last five weeks).

Jacksonville is 30th in pass DVOA, and Jacksonville is a poor tackling team (29th per PFF) and allows the most receiving yards to RBs. That will give Justin Herbert an outlet from the pass rush with Austin Ekeler. Herbert is much better set up to have success than Lawrence in this one. 

For the rest of our bets and for our full game previews, you know where to go.                               

@DallasZoo Did someone say a cougar's loose?

— Razzball (@Razzball)
Jan 13, 2023