If chaos is a ladder, the winner this week will be doing a lot of climbing
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM:
U.S. Open: Pinehurst No. 2 has that dog in it. Does Viktor Hovland?
Watercooler: The Celtics can run the table.
U.S. Open Best Bets: A Top 20 target with monster odds.
It’s 6/12. Take it away, Geoff Ulrich…
The U.S. Open is typically described as the toughest test in golf, and for that reason, it also often ends up being the most entertaining tournament of the season. There is something about watching professional golfers struggle to make par that makes them more relatable — and perhaps easier to cheer for.
While this year’s layout is somewhat different stylistically, it’s still going to bring the heat. Pinehurst No. 2’s greens have some of the most severe run-offs in the world and when you combine it with the hot weather rolling through, chaos and carnage are likely to make an appearance at some point this weekend.
In other words, prepare yourself to be entertained.
Expect Pinehurst No. 2 to put the hur(s)t on
If you’re not familiar with Pinehurst No. 2, I went over it in detail in the early week Course Preview. Here are the basics:
It’s a longgg Par 70 (7,539 yards) that has hosted the US Open three times prior (‘99, ‘05, ‘14).
It has zero rough, but its fairways are surrounded by sandy waste areas that give out good and poor lies with equal impunity.
It has saucer-like greens with big run-offs that are playing fast and may get faster by Sunday, thanks to high temperatures.
One last note. Length is still an advantage, but it is worth mentioning that big hitters didn’t thrive at Pinehurst back in 2014 to the extent they do at most U.S. Open venues. I would still choose a better driver of the ball over a poor one (all other things being equal), but Pinehurst’s setup will bring more players into the mix than a regular U.S. Open.
Who can climb the ladder?
34-year-old Erik Compton, who didn’t have a PGA card at the time, finished T2 at Pinehurst in 2014. The top 12 that year also included numerous other names we would never expect to show up that high on a U.S. Open leaderboard.
Still, the winner was ultimately a former major winner in Martin Kaymer, who dusted the field by eight strokes with creative excellence on his approaches and around the greens. My first pick, another European and a man with similar game and abilities, makes up my first of three main outright picks for this week.
🎯 Outright Pick #1: Viktor Hovland (+2000; BetMGM)
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that some of Viktor Hovland’s best work has come on venues that require a little more creativity. He’s often struggled with scrambling on courses with the typical heavy rough collars we see at most US Opens but has managed to find better success at many links-styled and resort venues that feature tighter run-off areas and little to no rough.
To me, that makes Pinehurst No. 2 a course he should enjoy. From a player profile perspective, he lines nicely with Kaymer, who himself was deficient around the greens – even in his prime – but has always been a superb links player whose iron play has often drifted into the sublime.
Hovland wasn’t able to keep himself in contention last weekend at Muirfield, but his T15 finish there saw him strike the ball as well as anyone not named Scottie Scheffler.
Widely available at +2000 this week, he’s a player I’m happy to have on board at this price. It’s not as big as the +5000 that he went off at for the PGA but it's still bigger than the price we saw on him in several futures markets back in December of last year.
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🤔 The Mavs return to Dallas to host the NBA Finals. Why it won’t matter in Game 3.
💰 Big Bet alert! And we do mean big. At least one person thinks there is value with the Celtics in Game 3.
👀 Kristaps Porzingis’ status is unknown after suffering a “complex” injury. But the forward did say he’ll risk it all to play.
🏀 Basketball icon Jerry West has passed away. The icon left his mark on the game in so many ways.
🤯 Scottie Scheffler making history again. His odds this week are even shorter than they were at Augusta!
🦶 Spaniard Jon Rahm withdrew from the U.S. Open. To be fair, golf is hard enough with 10 healthy toes.
⏩ You best hit your spots at Pinehurst No. 2. More proof the greens are running faster than Usain Bolt.
🥶 Can Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl turn things around? They’ve been ice-cold through two games.
🎙️ Need more U.S. Open Content? Check out the Betting Life Podcast before players tee off on Thursday.
The U.S. Open Course Preview went up earlier in the week, so today, we’re sticking solely to the bets. Geoff Ulrich broke down one of his favorite outright targets above but is back with more plays for the week, including his second of three outrights and a longshot in the top 20 and first-round leader market.
👑 Outright Pick #2: Tommy Fleetwood (+4000; FanDuel)
Top 10 (+230; FanDuel)
Fleetwood has been treading water since a T3 at Augusta National in April but has maintained solid approach numbers and is showing more confidence with the flat stick, an important club this week regardless of the name on your caddie’s bib. He comes in having gained over 1.5 strokes putting in each of his last three PGA starts.
Live Hovland, Fleetwood is no stranger to links play, and his best U.S. Open finishes have also come at some of the more unique U.S. Open stops. Fleetwood’s number ideally would have drifted into the +5500 range this week, but his record in majors, especially of late, means he won’t go off that high again in these events unless his form takes a major dip.
Ultimately, I'm still happy to take him at a slightly bigger number than we saw last week and have him on the card. He’s proven too adept at these big events not to at least have a piece of him in the top 10 market, and I remain committed to seeing him pay off these bigger prices for an eventual outright.
📈 Daniel Berger Top-20 (+600; DraftKings)
Top 20 After Round 1 (+550; DraftKings)
Berger’s recent 18-month hiatus away from golf due to a back injury has been well documented, but he’s now played a full schedule for six months on the PGA. He’s been a leader in fairways gained off the tee over the last month or so and finished T13 at the Byron Nelson in May, where he gained 2.3 strokes on approach.
The 31-year-old played in this event back in 2014 as a rookie and finished T28, shooting 66 in the final round. He and Martin Kaymer, who shot 65 in Rounds 1 and 2, were the only two players to shoot under 67 that year.
Coming off a 65 he shot in U.S. Open qualifying, his 500-1 outright price on FanDuel seems far too big to me, even if his actual win equity is quite small. However, he’s more appealing as a top-20 target — where his price is about on par with Tiger Woods — or in the first-round markets, especially given his early morning tee time on Thursday.
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