The NFL sure knows how to spice up a random Monday in April …
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by the Fantasy Life Discord:
- Jalen Hurts is suddenly the highest-paid player in NFL history
- NFL draft betting odds are on the move at No. 1 overall
- Dynasty Rookie Profile: Cincinnati WR Tyler Scott
- 2023 NFL Mock Draft: Picks 9, 10 and 11
- It's 4/18. Take it away, Ian Hartitz...
And just like that: Jalen Hurts is the highest-paid player in NFL history.
The massive contract is for five years, $255 million including $179.3 million guaranteed, and includes a no-trade clause (shoutout Jimmy Graham). That locks in Hurts as the franchise QB of the present and future on a still-loaded Eagles team.
Head coach Nick Sirianni is certainly a fan of the deal and went as far as to compare Hurts to the basketball GOAT.
Eagles’ HC Nick Sirianni on Jalen Hurts in January: “It's like having Michael Jordan out there. He's your leader. He's your guy.”
Eagles’ owner Jeffrey Lurie last month: “The hardest part, for sure, is the scarcity of really good quarterbacks, and we got one, and we got a very… https://t.co/44sbKxFqEJ
Hurts isn’t exactly the world’s biggest underdog story – the man was a four-star recruit who spent his collegiate career with Alabama and Oklahoma before being drafted with the 53rd overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft – but he’s certainly demonstrated incredible resilience and self-belief after being benched for Tua Tagovailoa at halftime of the 2018 College Football Playoff National Championship.
The best part of the deal, from the Eagles’ side of things, has to be the reality that they got this done early before guys like Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow potentially reset the market.
Currently, just six QBs are making at least $45 million per season (per Over The Cap):
Hurts ($51 million per year)
Aaron Rodgers ($50.2M)
Russell Wilson ($49M)
Kyler Murray ($46.1M)
Deshaun Watson ($46M)
Patrick Mahomes ($45M)
It remains to be seen if 2022 was the best version of Hurts or simply a sign of even bigger things to come; either way, nobody can take away the incredible passing progression that the 24-year-old talent has demonstrated during his short NFL career.
The $255 million dollar question is just how much Hurts had to do with the Eagles’ third-ranked scoring offense. Obviously, every snap begins with the ball in the QB’s hands, but PFF’s No. 1 ranked offensive line, a consensus top-five WR duo in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith as well as stud TE Dallas Goedert certainly made life easier.
I took every team’s combined PFF rush, receiving and blocking grades to get an idea of the league’s best-supporting casts. The top-five groups from 2022 were as follows:
Eagles (81.9 combined grade)
Falcons (81.8)
Ravens (78.2)
49ers (78)
Chiefs (77.1)
Of course, Hurts’ dual-threat ability helped make this rushing attack as lethal as it was: The 2022 Eagles only trail the 2018 Rams in EPA per run play over the last decade.
Hurts’ aforementioned improvement as a passer also doesn’t paint the picture of someone who was constantly getting bailed out by his teammates. The man knows how to make plays with his arm.
Shocking but true: The numbers suggest that both Hurts and the rest of the Philly roster are really good at football. Nice time to be an Eagles fan!
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📊 Betting odds are on the move. There’s a new frontrunner at first overall.
❓ Name that 2020 pre-draft interview: “I don’t put a ceiling on how good I can be.”
☝️ Pre-draft QB visit szn. *Brian Windhorst meme*.
❌ They’re called VOLUNTARY offseason programs for a reason. These key players will NOT be attending.
💸 Lamar Jackson has entered the chat. SHOW ME THE MONEY.
💪 He deadlifted HOW MUCH WEIGHT? This stud WR is putting in some serious off-season work.
❓ The BIGGEST fantasy question marks. Ian & Pete are unsure.
💨 The Chargers bring back a familiar face. How much help does Justin Herbert need?
🐱 Cincinnati WR Tyler Scott
WR Rookie Model Percentile: 68th
Underdog ADP: 236.5
By looking at his measurables, you can reasonably project how an NFL team could deploy Tyler Scott. At 5’10, 177 pounds, the former Bearcat needed to highlight his athletic traits at the Combine to ease any concerns — and Scott moved into the Day 2 discussion thanks to confirmed 4.44 speed.
However, Scott has limited experience as a WR. He mixed in as an RB in high school, earned snaps as a rusher and receiver his first year at UC, and converted to a full-time WR as a sophomore.
Combined with the size-weight limitations, a team could instantly plug him in as a gadget receiver fit for screens and jet sweeps as he grows into the position.
📈 Pros
⚾ Homerun Hitter
Highlight reels are an easy starting point to understand where a player wins. In Scott’s case, his second gear was a problem for defenders. The Cincinnati product could take an intermediate post to the house or blaze by a defender giving him a 10-yard cushion.
Scott generated yards after the catch (YAC) regardless of the route type, making him a big-play threat wherever he goes.
Over a two-year sample, Scott is one of six WRs in this class with an average depth of target (aDOT) and YAC per reception over the class average. Through this lens, he compares favorably to Zay Flowers, but the Boston College prospect held a larger share of his team’s offensive production.
Regardless, Scott’s suddenness gave him the space to excel downfield.
📉 Cons
⚔️ Can’t Fight Through Defenders
Scott only played 26 slot snaps during his collegiate career (PFF). As you can imagine, being fleet of foot kept him away from defenders, and head coach Luke Fickell put Scott in advantageous positions on the field.
Scott faced man coverage on 27.1% of his routes in his final year. However, he struggled if pressed at the line of scrimmage.
Scott’s 1.18 YPRR (fourth-worst in the class) emphasizes what most already assumed: He’ll have trouble winning at the catch point. His small catch radius will cause QBs to have an even tougher time firing a pass in his direction.
His role on an NFL team will be the same as his size until he improves his route running and technique.
🖥️ Fantasy Impact
Scott has the tools to be an impact player as a rookie. His long speed forces safeties to respect any passer's penchant for creating an explosive play, and he can move the chains with YAC on short crossers. As a rotational player, he’d be the spark to ignite an offense.
He reminds me of what the Bills envisioned for Isaiah McKenzie.
Scott would seamlessly fit onto a squad with at least two established pass-catchers (e.g., Seattle, Dallas). He’d have the potential for spike weeks while continuing to develop as a receiver as the third or fourth option in a good offense.
Fantasy Life's Eliot Crist just released V2.0 of his first-round mock draft that considers many factors, including betting odds and teams' drafting history while pulling the curtain up on draft rumors and smoke screens. Today we are spotlighting his No. 9, 10 and 11 picks.
9. Chicago Bears: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
6’6, 311 lbs, 21 years old
There are rumors the Bears and Steelers have been discussing a pick swap here, allowing the Steelers to take the draft's best offensive lineman. However, I have the Bears staying put and taking the tackle with the highest ceiling in the draft, Paris Johnson Jr.
Bears general manager Ryan Poles covets length and physical traits, and Johnson will hit his marks. A recent clip from the Bears showed what the Bears factor in when looking at analytical player profiles.
10. Philadelphia Eagles - DT, Jalen Carter, Georgia, Jr.
6’3, 314 lbs, 21 years old
Carter has told teams outside of the top 10 that he won’t take a visit, which tells me he knows his floor is the Eagles.
The rich get richer as the Eagles land Jalen Carter, the top prospect on many expert boards before his off-field incident this offseason.
The Eagles sit at +200 to draft a defensive lineman with their first pick after successfully retaining both Darius Slay and James Bradberry in free agency. They did, however, lose multiple defensive starters and need to retool on defense. This is a bet that offers fantastic value.
The addition of Carter to the team is a home run for the Eagles, given his impressive track record. He will pair exceptionally well with his former Georgia teammate and Eagles' 2022 first-round pick Jordan Davis.
11. Seattle Seahawks (trade): Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
6’2, 238 lbs, 22 years old
A former No. 1 overall high-school prospect in 2019, Nolan Smith's athletic testing was off the charts, highlighted by his remarkable 99th percentile 10-yard split, 40-yard dash, 98th percentile vertical jump, and 95th percentile broad jump results.
Although his sack production may have been less than desired, Smith’s numerous tackles for losses and disruptive plays demonstrate his value on the field. This kind of pressure is precisely what the Seahawks desperately need, given their lackluster performance in this area in 2022, with a PFF pressure grade of just 65.1, leaving them ranked a disappointing 28th overall.
