At this point, the only letters I know are ‘Q’, ‘O’, and ‘IR’…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by GameBlazers:
Two WRs to hold for one more week: We still believe in them
Rankings Roundtable: Who we like for Week 6
QUICK HITTER: Injury Updates for Sunday
The Bengals may get their WR2 back
The Walkthrough: Josh Jacobs. Renaissance Man.
Week 4 DFS Stacks: Rams passing attack = $$$
It’s 10/14. Take it away, Chris Allen…
After this week, I totally understand having to make some tough choices with your bench spots.
We’ve needed replacements for Justin Jefferson, Anthony Richardson, De’Von Achane, and James Conner in the last few days. And it’s not like we can drop any replacements we’ve picked up. Saquon Barkley still carries a Q tag as he returns from a high ankle sprain, and Lions’ fans and fantasy managers alike wait on bated breath for updates on Sam LaPorta.
As a result, we’ve had to make some cuts. But if you can wait one more week, I’ll make the case to keep these two WRs who were a disappointment in Week 5.
🤔 Tutu Atwell, Rams
We wanted Cooper Kupp back. He returned. And then immediately reminded us why we drafted him in the first round.
He's baaaaaack 🗣️ @CooperKupp
📺: #PHIvsLAR on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlusbit.ly/3F5ujiN— NFL (@NFL)
Oct 8, 2023
But the fun didn’t stop there. Puka Nacua got in on the action (11-71-1 stat line - more on him later), easing any concerns about the two receivers coexisting. However, their dominance left Tutu Atwell out in the cold.
Atwell’s target share (14.7%) hit a season-low with Kupp and Nacua hogging every look from Stafford. And even with the touchdown, he scored fewer PPR points (8.6) than Cedrick Wilson. Naturally, Atwell’s been a cut candidate but some of his peripherals make him worth holding (per TruMedia):
Routes per team dropback (in Week 5): 95.1% (third on the team behind Kupp and Nacua)
TPRR from inside the 10-yard line: 50.0% (tied for first with Kupp)
Slot rate: 56.4% (second behind Kupp)
The Rams are tied with the Chiefs and Bengals for the second-highest dropback over expectation rate, and Matthew Stafford is seventh in air yards per attempt. If you can, try and stash Atwell to capture some of LA’s passing attack.
🙏 Jahan Dotson, Commanders
Reason #1? #JustWatchtheTape
Jahan Dotson #ArrogantHands in all it's glory
— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo)
Oct 10, 2023
But even Film Bros can agree only 140 yards after five games is disappointing after Jahan Dotson led the Commanders in targets (35) and air yard share (34.8%) over the final five games of the ‘22 season. And after five weeks with Sam Howell, Dotson has had fewer attempts lobbed his way than Kendrick Bourne.
However, it’s not Dotson’s fault, per se. Howell just has an abundance of options. Here’s the number of players with a +10% target share in three areas conducive to fantasy production:
On passes of 20 air yards or more: 5
In the green zone (inside the 10-yard line): 4
In obvious passing situations: 6
However, only one WR has his name in all three buckets: Dotson.
Howell is averaging more pass attempts per game (38.2) than Josh Allen (35.0) and has more passing yards (1349) than Patrick Mahomes (1287). If you can wait and see this passing game coalesce around fewer choices for Howell, bet on talent, and hold Dotson.
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Debating between two guys on your roster? Need someone to break the tie for you? Matthew Freedman, Dwain McFarland, and Ian Hartitiz dove deep into their rankings to find a few players they’re willing to push into their starting lineup for Week 6.
Week 5 is in the books, and to some, it feels like the season is already over. Multiple stars headed to injured reserve earlier in the week with less-than-ideal options on the waiver wire to replace them.
Slotting K.J. Osborn into the same spot typically used for Justin Jefferson is about as painful as it sounds.
But what else are you going to do? Check out our player tools and rankings, of course!
Our rankings squad got together again to find a few players they’re higher or lower on relative to consensus. So, if you’re having questions about setting your lineup for Week 6 or looking for that one guy that might give you the push you need to get a W, check out their notes before kickoff.
🌟 WR – Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Cardinals
Nacua is the WR3 on the season and delivered a WR10 performance in Cooper Kupp’s first game back. It is meaningful that Nacua did this in a game where Kupp had a 98% route participation with a 37% target share. That was a monster target-share game for Kupp, and Nacua was STILL viable.
Nacua is likely here to stay, given his high-end target-earning ability and the Rams' offensive philosophy in 2023. Sean McVay is keeping the pedal to the metal with the fifth-highest dropback rate over expectation (DBOE) at +6%, and they rank sixth in plays per minute over expectation (PPMOE) at +0.06.
The Rams are willing to throw the ball in all game scripts, which gives us the green light against the Cardinals this weekend despite their status as seven-point favorites. Arizona gives up the sixth-most passing yards per game (274) in non-overtime play this year, and opposing passing attacks average the fifth-most TD passes (1.8) per contest.
Nacua is my WR7 and is No. 14 in my overall ranks – seven spots ahead of the Fantasy Life consensus.
- Dwain
💪 QB - Brock Purdy (49ers) at Browns
There is some debate about Purdy’s standing among the league’s QBs in terms of how much of the team’s offensive success he is truly responsible for; just realize style points don’t matter in fantasy land, and Mr. Relevant continues to do nothing other than rack up solid performances.
Purdy has put forward the following weekly fantasy finishes in his 11 career regular season starts in chronological order:
QB17
QB6
QB14
QB13
QB10
QB5
QB9
QB22
QB11
QB11
QB6
Nine of the 11 performances have featured top-14 production, while Purdy has finished as a legit QB1 in all but one of his last seven starts.
Of course, the 49ers haven’t exactly put the most on Purdy’s plate. He’s finished with fewer than 30 pass attempts in all but one game this season and has certainly benefited from the team's myriad of talented play-makers all over the field.
Still, the presence of those players has helped Purdy produce the sort of asinine efficiency numbers that will continue to keep him firmly in the weekly QB1 conversation. Purdy (9.3) joins Tua Tagovailoa (9.7) as the only passers averaging over even eight yards per attempt this season – the 49ers and Dolphins are largely playing a different game than everyone else.
Nobody is going to confuse Purdy for guys like Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts in fantasy land anytime soon, but why can’t he continue to produce numbers on par with more pure pocket passers like Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, C.J. Stroud and Matthew Stafford? Continue to fire up Purdy as a legit top-11 option as long as his play-makers and play-caller continue to be healthy.
- Ian
🦁 RB David Montgomery (Lions) at Buccaneers
Montgomery exited Week 2 early with a thigh injury and missed Week 3, but in Weeks 1 & 4-5, he had a dominant 344 yards and five TDs on 72 carries and six targets. For the season, he leads the league with 12 broken tackles forced.
With 1,000-plus yards and 25-plus receptions in each of his four full NFL seasons (2019-22 Bears), Montgomery has a three-down skill set.
He could be without No. 2 RB Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring), who missed last week as a late addition to the injury report, and the Buccaneers are No. 29 in defensive rush SR (45.3%).
I’m not a big bettor in the anytime TD market, but Montgomery has an NFL-high eight carries inside the five-yard line, and he has scored a TD in every game played this year.
Plus, last week, he narrowly missed out on two TDs by getting tackled at the one-yard line (sheesh, right?).
- Freedman
✍️ What to expect from K.J. Osborn? Trade DeAndre Hopkins?!? Get all you need to know for Week 6 here.
🐅 Tee Higgins logs a full practice, but still gets the Q tag. Do you think he plays?
🍿 The gang gets together with Pat Kerrane to talk Week 6 matchups. Rams-Cardinals looks like the game to target in DFS.
🚀 Jeff Wilson DOUBTFUL for Sunday. Mostert? More like Must-Start, amirite?
⚔ It’s Revenge Week in New York! Bills’ former QB gets to start for the G-Men in Week 6.
😡 If you roster Javonte Williams, LOOK AWAY. RBBCs make me M-A-D.
📈 Usage for one Chiefs’ WR is on the rise. Let’s hope Andy Reid puts him out there more.
💪 Bucs’ WR1 back at practice on Friday. He could be in for a big day on Sunday.
An all-encompassing Week 6 preview breaking down EVERY game with an array of advanced analytics as well as devoted film analysis from a champion expert in the field who just so happens to also be a rather great writer — is that something you might be interested in? Well, good, because Legendary Upside founder and Fantasy Life partner Pat Kerrane is here to spread the good word ahead of Week 6…
Josh Jacobs will share the field with Rhamondre Stevenson on Sunday. And it's striking how similar both backs look in a variety of rushing metrics this season... which is not a good thing for either player.
Neither running back has been explosive. Stevenson ranks RB47 in NFL Next Gen's rush yards over expected per game; Jacobs is RB42. Neither player has been consistent. Stevenson ranks RB35 in NFL Next Gen's success rate; Jacobs is RB45. Neither player is even breaking tackles. Stevenson ranks RB41 in PFF's elusive rating, Jacobs is RB40.
But there are two big differences between Jacobs and Stevenson.
First, Jacobs is actually delivering on his promise as a workhorse RB. Despite his inefficiency, Jacobs maintains a complete grip on the Raiders backfield, ranking RB6 in snap share and RB4 in carry share.
Second, Jacobs has been very impressive as a receiver. He ranks RB2 in target share, RB4 in TPRR, and RB3 with an elite 1.95 YPRR. It’s hard to believe that Jacobs is washed when he’s flashing elite receiving metrics.
Jacobs now faces a solid Patriots run defense that ranks 15th in EPA allowed per rush and fifth in rushing success rate. The Patriots aren't doing much right this year, but they've been solid on the ground. But the Raiders offensive line has been sneaky impressive, ranking fifth in ESPN's pass block win rate and 10th in run block win rate.
The Raiders should also be able to move the ball reliably through the air against a weak Patriots pass rush that should give Jimmy Garoppolo plenty of clean pocket throws. Garoppolo has his flaws, but he's solid when kept clean. The Raiders rank 12th in EPA per dropback with a clean pocket.
Given how rough he’s been this year, it doesn’t feel good to hype Jacobs. But in a matchup where the Raiders should be effective on offense while playing in plenty of neutral and positive game scripts… Jacobs is a clear-cut RB1.
Finding the right player stacks can be the key to building a profitable roster in DFS. If you want to get the jump on this weekend, James McCool from Paydirt DFS has the data to guide you for Week 6.
🥇 Popular option: Los Angeles Rams
📜 Facts:
The Rams are one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league with a DBOE (Dropback over expectation) of +6%, as well as weeks of +12%, +14%, and +12% in their sample.
In his return from injury, Cooper Kupp was in on 98% of routes and had a 37% target share, obviously both terrific marks, but more important was Puka Nacua maintaining a strong role with 100% route participation and 31% of the target share.
Although the Rams are not up against a “difficult” opponent, the Cardinals have shown that they will speed up in a trailing gamescript. Last week against the Bengals, they had a .83 PPMOE (Plays per minute over expectation), so if the Rams get a lead, we should expect a great environment for fantasy.
📊 Stack info (DraftKings)
💰 Salary and projections:
Combo 1 (Matthew Stafford/Cooper Kupp/Puka Nacua): This combination is the most expensive at $23,100 and has the highest Median score of 58.79.
Combo 2 (Matthew Stafford/Cooper Kupp/Tyler Higbee): Moderately priced at $19,100 with a Median score of 47.49.
Combo 3 (Matthew Stafford/Puka Nacua/Tyler Higbee): Least expensive at $18,100, with a Median score close to Combo 2 at 46.65.
Among the combinations, Combo 3 provides the best efficiency, but Combo 1 isn't far behind. You have strong options through multiple price points here, though the best combo is clearly Kupp/Nacua if you have the salary.
🧮 Finish percentiles
Combo 1 (Matthew Stafford/Cooper Kupp/Puka Nacua): Leads with a 17.56% Top Finish and a strong 78.44% 2x%.
Combo 2 (Matthew Stafford/Cooper Kupp/Tyler Higbee): 2.00% Top Finish with a solid 76.36% 2x%.
Combo 3 (Matthew Stafford/Puka Nacua/Tyler Higbee): Slightly better Top Finish at 2.28% than Combo 2 and a high 78.36% 2x%.
🔥 Combo 1: Premium Choice with High Efficiency
This combination offers both top-tier upside and efficiency. With the highest Median score and top finish potential, this is a go-to for those willing to invest in premium choices with consistent scoring.
🤷♂️ Combo 2: Mid-Tier with Balanced Potential
Though it's moderately priced, its efficiency isn't as striking. The upside is limited, but it's a reasonable choice for a balanced approach.
👎 Combo 3: Value Pick with Optimal Efficiency
The least expensive, yet it offers the best efficiency. With a similar Median score to Combo 2 but at a lesser cost, it presents great value. Its 2x% is also impressive, making it a solid contrarian or budget pick.
The LAR team combinations cater to different budget ranges and strategies. Combo 1 offers top-tier potential, Combo 2 is the middle-of-the-road option, while Combo 3 offers great value for its price. Both me and Dwain agree that Stafford has been in a position to erupt for a while now, and with his team now at near full health, he should be made a priority.
Cynics who are claiming the Travis Kelce-Taylor Swift thing is a publicity stunt, that woman has spent 3 nights of her life watching the Jets, Bears and Broncos play football -all for Travis Kelce. This is true, pure love.
— Shiv Ramdas Official Boye Mafia Spokesman (@nameshiv)
Oct 13, 2023
