🔑 Key Week 6 Fantasy Questions and Answers

Isiah Pacheco isn’t afraid of Friday the 13th, so why should you be?

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Rival Fantasy:

• The Chiefs take down the Broncos on Thursday Night Football
• Biggest Week 6 Fantasy Questions: Geno Smith, Bijan Robinson, more
• Matchup of the week: Rams vs. Cardinals
• Tyreek Hill comps Chase Claypool to a…vending machine?
• Best Bets: A Bryce Young over? In this economy??
• It’s 10/13. Take it away, Ian Hartitz…

The Chiefs won 19-8 on Thursday night, as a dominant defensive effort and just enough Patrick Mahomes goodness was enough to get the job done (job done). It was a rather ugly performance for the Chiefs offense, as they only converted four of 13 third downs and didn’t manage to score a single point off of three Denver turnovers.

There were still plenty of highs — Travis Kelce (9-124-0) put together a dominant performance, and Isiah Pacheco (98 total yards) continued to run like the ground has taken everything he’s ever worked for — but it wasn’t exactly the offensive masterclass many expected from the game’s best QB against a Broncos defense that ranked dead last in most meaningful defensive metrics going into the game.

Of course, even ugly football can provide beautiful utilization takeaways.

😡 “Stop trying to make Marvin Mims happen.” - Sean Payton

The Broncos’ electric rookie WR has made the most out of his opportunities this season as both a receiver and returner, but continues to get shafted when it comes to overall route participation:

• Courtland Sutton (49 routes)
• Jerry Jeudy (34)
• Brandon Johnson (16)
• Lil'Jordan Humphrey (15)
• Marvin Mims (12)

Mims isn’t someone fantasy managers can even think about relying on at the moment, but he is a recommended stash with so many rumors swirling around a potential Jerry Jeudy trade.

This might not be the most fantasy-friendly offense in the world; just realize Russell Wilson already has thrown 12 TDs this season — a mark that took him until Week 16 just one season ago. A full-time role down the stretch for Mims could be just the recipe he needs to provide him with a 2022 Christian Watson-esque boom stretch.

👀 Isiah Pacheco, running back, THE running back, ya’ll

The Chiefs appeared content to feature three backs fairly evenly in the early going of 2023, but Pacheco has pulled away as the clear leader of the pack in recent weeks.

• Week 1: 8-23-0 rushing, 4-31-0 receiving, 48% snap rate
• Week 2: 12-70-0, 1-0-0, 51%
• Week 3: 15-62-1, 2-16-0, 42%
• Week 4: 20-115-1, 3-43-0, 60%
• Week 5: 16-55-1, 1-9-0, 59%
• Week 6: 16-62-0, 6-36-0, 63%

While Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire don’t figure to completely exit the equation, Pacheco has earned weekly upside RB2 treatment at worst thanks to the reality that he’s a safe bet for 15-plus weekly touches inside what is usually one of the best offenses the NFL has to offer.

Two more quick notes:

Broncos RB Jaleel McLaughlin (40% snaps) got the start and continued to make the most out of touches, but this was a heavy three-way committee that also featured Javonte Williams (35%) and Samaje Perine (17%) also heavily involved. The answer to which Denver RB to overly trust for the time being is probably just: No.

Chiefs rookie WR Rashee Rice (4-72-0, third-most routes) continued to impress and could feasibly be relied on more moving forward if Justin Watson (elbow) is forced to miss future game time.

Always remember: Mediocre Thursday night football is better than no Thursday night football. MOVING ON.

Fantasy-relevant questions and answers from our dude Ian on every game in Week 6 meant to educate the masses on the league’s changing dynamics and get to the bottom of the week’s most pressing issues, is that something you might be interested in?

😢 Why do the injury Gods hate fun?

I don’t know, but taking electric rookie RB De’Von Achane (knee, IR) from everyone for at least four games objectively sucks balls.

All the third-round pick did in essentially three games of action was convert 47 touches into 527 yards (11.2 yards per touch) and seven TDs. And he did so in style.

Achane’s absence opens up a few possibilities, but Raheem Mostert figures to continue working as the team’s clear-cut No. 1 back.

And why wouldn’t he?

Mostert has already scored eight times this season while averaging a whopping 5.4 yards per attempt – an incredible number in the pre-Achane era. Only Christian McCaffrey has more total PPR points than Mostert at the position through five weeks of action; the 31-year-old veteran is an every-week RB1 at the moment.

The only reason we can’t be more confident about Mostert’s every-week usage moving forward is the potential for Jeff Wilson (finger/midsection, IR) to be activated this week and resume his status as a key piece of this rushing attack.

Last season, the only game that both played in that seemingly featured Mostert at 100% health saw the backs engage in a 49%/47% snap split and neither managed to reach double-digit carries.

It’d make sense if Wilson is somewhat eased back in, and Salvon Ahmed could also steal some snaps.

Ultimately, Mostert aka must-start (ha!), is the only recommended start for now, but Wilson could be joining him in a hurry, depending on how this week’s utilization shakes out.

👀 Just how drastic has the difference been between Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier?

Very!

• PFF rush grade: Robinson (83.1), Allgeier (67.8)
• Yards per carry: Robinson (5.4), Allgeier (3.1)
• Yards after contact per carry: Robinson (3.3), Allgeier (2.7)
• Missed tackles forced per carry: Robinson (0.3), Allgeier (0.21)

That’s right, Robinson is averaging more yards after contact per carry than Allgeier is averaging per rush attempt period. Madness.

This also isn’t the case of defenses loading up significantly more against Allgeier. Overall, both Allgeier (40.3%) and Robinson (32.8%) have faced eight-plus defenders in the box on a top-five rate of their rush attempts this season.

It makes sense that the Falcons don’t completely overwhelm Robinson with volume; preserving any player’s health is a perfectly rational thing to do. Still, a 67 vs. 62 discrepancy in rush attempts between Robinson and Allgeier seems a bit too close, considering the drastically different performance put forward by each thus far.

🏈 How close has the 2023 Geno Smith experience been to what we saw in 2022?

Pretty damn close!

• PFF pass grade: 2022 (76.1), 2023 (76.7)
• Passer rating: 2022 (100.9), 2023 (97.8)
• Yards per attempt: 2022 (7.5), 2023 (6.9)
• Adjusted completion rate: 2022 (77.8%), 2023 (82.2%)

Still a top-10 QB in completion percentage over expected (5.2%, 9th): Smith has proved through four weeks that 2022 was far from a fluke.

Is the 33-year-old signal-caller benefiting from a loaded supporting cast? Sure, but that group also isn’t exactly going anywhere. Smith is a recommended start in Sunday’s potential shootout against the Bengals – just make sure you keep an eye on the potentially problematic weather for this one (and about eight other games).

32 more fantasy questions and answers to get you ready for Week 6

You can also join Ian, Dwain McFarland, and Chris Allen as they break down ALL of your burning Fantasy Football questions heading into Week 6!

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The NFC West sure looks a lot like the best division in the entire NFC at the moment. While the Rams literally raised the Lombardi Trophy a short 18 months ago, new head coach Jonathan Gannon has the cardiac Cardinals playing feisty to start the season. Fantasy Life all-around-baller Chris is here to break down Fantasy Life’s Matchup of the Week.

Week 6 is the wrong week for this matchup.

Can we reschedule it?

I mean, don’t get me wrong. The Cardinals’ offense is still feisty. Despite losing to Cincinnati on Sunday, they were still league average in yards per play (5.2), matching the Chiefs' productivity on a per-play basis. But James Conner is out indefinitely. Plus, one of Arizona’s starting CBs left in Week 5 with a concussion.

Meanwhile, the Rams got a boost with Cooper Kupp’s return. And it’s not like he came back, was on a snap count, and turned in a modest stat line after missing a month of action. Matthew Stafford targeted Kupp six times…on the first of their eight drives. The only thing the triple-crown winner didn’t do in his ’23 debut was score a touchdown.

Regardless, at full strength, the play-callers on both sides have made each offense effective for both real and fantasy purposes. However, after Week 5, the Cardinals’ margin for error may be a bit thinner.

But let’s dig into the Cardinals’ backfield for a minute.

📊 Cardinals Week 6 Outlook

Emari Demarcado took over for Conner and had the type of usage typically reserved for bell-cow RBs.

As a result, the rookie became a popular add on the waiver wire. But I have concerns.

Keaontay Ingram missed Week 5 with a neck injury after logging two limited practices heading into the weekend. Corey Clement was active on Sunday but only played on special teams. So, he’s not a factor. But looking at Ingram’s usage in games without Conner, Ingram is someone worth stashing.

• Rushing Share: 30.0%
• Green-zone touch rate: 27.3%
• Route Rate: 20.9%
• Target Rate: 5.4%

Ingram earned a touch in every facet of Arizona’s offense. Plus, he was the only rusher to get a touch in two-minute situations. Of course, this was an offense that featured Kyler Murray. And Eno Benjamin was still on the team.

With Ingram managing an injury, Demarcado will likely take on the lead role in the backfield. But Ingram will take away some work. Clement can steal a touch or two. Plus, Arizona has Damien Williams and Tony Jones lurking in the background.

So, at best, Demarcado finds himself as the leader of a committee. And if the Cardinals’ offense struggles against LA’s defense, it’ll lower the freshman’s production even further.

How Will the Rams’ Passing Game Fare In Week 6?

#LOVEHATE is upon us, and Matthew Berry is here to take you through the Week 6 NFL slate!

😮 HOF WR and current NFL analyst Steve Smith had some WORDS for Jerry Jeudy. That’s not very nice!

📺 The BEST Week 6 matchups to target. The Underdog Best Ball Mania III champion has some thoughts…

✍️ Sneaky tournament plays and pivots off of the chalk. Your DFS guide to Week 6.

😃 One of the NFL’s best RBs finally appears to be fully healthy. Thank you, injury Gods.

👀 Three buy-low players you NEED to target. Run, don’t walk, to the trade block.

🤬 Bad midweek injury news on one of the game’s best young TEs. Take my eyes but not his calf.

🐅 It’s looking “promising” that this stud WR is back Sunday. Just in time to face the league’s worst fantasy defense vs. the position.

😬 Sources are sourcing that this QB won’t be suiting up this Sunday. A backup QB vs. the 49ers, what could go wrong?

🤯 Is being compared to a vending machine good or bad? Fun fact: Vending machines are more deadly than sharks.

🍫 Make sure you check your Halloween candy carefully. This Snickers bar will SHOCK you.

You like betting, we like betting, and Geoff LOVES betting. Lucky for you, he’s here to spread the good word with some seriously enticing best bets ahead of Week 6. Lock in.

💰 Colts +4.0 @ Jaguars (-110, BetMGM)

• Bet until: Colts +3.5

Both of these teams enter this pivotal game 3-2 straight up and 3-2 ATS on the year.

Trevor Lawrence played well last week but is still just 18th in EPA + CPOE composite among all quarterbacks and – for his career – is 0-4 ATS as a home favorite with head coach Doug Pederson. Speaking of Pederson, his career record as a favorite is just 25-31 ATS (per The Action Network).

There is also the unprecedented situation of Jacksonville coming home and playing DIRECTLY off of two games over in London – a situation that no team in the history of the NFL has ever dealt with before.

On the Indianapolis side, the switch to Gardner Minshew (0.44 EPA per play) has not meant a drop-off for the offense just yet.

The Colts have also run the ball extremely well at times (5.7 yards per carry last week), and their defense is getting healthier, with DE Kwity Paye and LB Shaquille Leonard both returning to full practices this week.

Indianapolis has hung with some tough teams (beat HOU, TEN, BAL straight-up, OT vs. Rams) and looks poised to keep this game close as well, under what is likely to be a slightly more conservative offensive approach with Minshew.

The points at anything above a FG look worth taking.

⬆️ Bryce Young over 217.5 passing yards (-115, BetMGM)

• Fantasy Life projection: 33.0 attempts and 221.5 yards
• Bet until: 218.5

As poor of a start as it has been for Young, this week does set up well for a mini-breakout of sorts.

The Dolphins’ defense is nearly as bad as the Panthers in several metrics – ranking 23rd in yards per pass attempt against (7.0) and 25th in overall defense DVOA.

Given that the Dolphins offense is also elite (first in overall offensive DVOA) it often leads to plenty of late-game possessions where the opposing quarterback is chucking the ball, without abandon, against a weaker secondary.

The last two QBs who have started and finished the game against the Dolphins:

• Week 3: Russell Wilson – (23-38, 306-1-1, 8.0 yards per attempt)
• Week 4: Josh Allen – (21-25, 320-4-0, 12.8 yards per attempt)

Young and the Panthers offense found some rhythm late in the game against the Lions and it’s worth noting that his yards per attempt metrics have improved over the last two starts (Weeks 1 & 2: 4.2, Weeks 3 & 4: 6.2).

While we can play for the regular over on Young’s 215.5 yardage total, his alternative totals (250+ and 300+) may be worth looking at upon release as well. We’ve already seen two QBs go for over 300 yards against Miami this season and there is a very high chance that Young is passing late into this game.

⬆️ Garrett Wilson over 51.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)

• Fantasy Life projection: 4.8 rec. 60.8 receiving yards
• Bet until: 55.5

This line opened at 50.5 and quickly shot up most places to 52.5 or higher.

And it’s for good reason.

Wilson comes into this game averaging 9.5 targets a game with Zach Wilson at QB, and has a stranglehold on the downfield passing work—with a 30% target share and 44% air yards share on the season (Allen Lazard is the only other Jet with an air yards share above 20%).

His catchable target rate is an ongoing concern, but there have been signs of improvement from Wilson (Zach) of late, who has completed 71% of his passes over the last two games.

The Eagles' secondary also isn’t on a great run at the moment, having allowed five different wide receivers over their last two games to go for 50+ yards against them.

Additionally, they’ve got two starters in their secondary (Darius Slay, Justin Evans – questionable) who may not suit up this week.

Wilson looks like a great over target and potentially a player you may want to consider ladder betting up to 100+ yards as well.

More Week 6 Best Bets from Geoff

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