I knew I should've gotten better at playing Clue when I was younger...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter, we're asking for your feedback.
- Sifting Through Four Practice Reports
- We want to hear from you!
- Week 15: Rankings & Tiers
- TNF: 49ers @ Seahawks Preview
- Bets From the Group Chat
- Chubb in a new role?
- It's 12/15. Take it away, Chris Allen
The good news is it's the first week of the fantasy playoffs. Those lucky enough (it was all skill, though, right) made waiver claims Tuesday night to fight for a championship. But we're coming into the week with incomplete information.
We exited Week 14 with a litany of injuries. Most of which we won't know the whole story until the weekend. A few stars like Saquon Barkley are clearly on track to suit up. However, there are still a number of guys up in the air for one of the biggest weeks of the fantasy season. I tried out my detective skills on three practice reports to gauge the likelihood of some of the big names being available in Week 15.
🙎♂️ Mike White (Ribs)
Mike White was limited, as expected. The big question is Quinnen Williams, who is 50/50 (at best). Jets are hopeful that Corey Davis will play. New addition: Will Parks, whose absence was non-injured-related. #Jets
— Rich Cimini (@RichCimini)
Dec 14, 2022
Mike White was at least able to get in a limited session on Wednesday after a brief trip to the hospital following Sunday's game. His partial practice participation and media availability are a positive sign that he'll be back under center against Detroit. With the Lions giving up QB1 performances to everyone but Trevor Lawrence and Aaron Rodgers over the last six weeks, the "White Knight" offense has a chance to make some noise in the AFC East.
🦵Tee Higgins (Hamstring), 👆 Tyler Boyd (Finger)
I don't know how many fans Zac Taylor had before last Sunday, but that number definitely dropped after the game when he told reports they knew they'd be without Tee Higgins in warmups. But Higgins and Tyler Boyd practiced, and Taylor seemed positive about their progress with a day-to-day outlook.
Zac Taylor said they'll see where it goes this week with Tee Higgins (hamstring) and Tyler Boyd (finger) but both were at practice today - not sure of their participation level right now but it seems to be a day-to-day situation right now #Bengals
— Kelsey Conway (@KelseyLConway)
Dec 14, 2022
If Boyd can catch a pass without too much discomfort, we should see him back against Tampa Bay, who've ceded solid outings to receivers who play on the interior (Brandon Aiyuk, 3-57-1; Chris Olave, 6-65-0; Tyler Lockett, 5-42-1). We'll need to see more from Higgins since the team is already expecting another week without Hayden Hurst.
🦶 Rhamondre Stevenson (Ankle)
Patriots injury report:
DNP: Jack Jones (knee), DeVante Parker (concussion),Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle), Isaiah Wynn (foot)
LIMITED: Christian Barmore (knee), Yodny Cajuste (calf, back), Joe Cardona (ankle),Damien Harris (thigh), Jakobi Meyers (concussion), Jalen Mills (groin)
— Mark Daniels (@MarkDanielsPJ)
Dec 14, 2022
No surprise after Rhamondre Stevenson couldn't finish Monday night's contest due to an ankle injury. However, it was a walkthrough on Wednesday, and if Stevenson has an injury limiting his ability to walk...
But seriously, Damien Harris is still working his way back, and Jakobi Meyers got in a limited session. Stevenson, a Vegas native, had his eye on Week 15 after Monday's game was over. Let's see if he can get in a partial practice Thursday before sounding off the alarm bells.
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Going with your gut can only get you so far. Use our industry-leading rankings to gain an edge on your leaguemates. Need help? Don't worry, Dwain has you covered.
Running Back
🥈 Tier 2 – Miles Sanders
Sanders has two 140-plus-yard rushing totals in the last three games. He continues to share the backfield (49% of rushing attempts), but the Eagles run the sixth-most total plays and rank No. 1 in rushing plays in non-overtime.
Philadelphia scores a TD on 35% of their drives – the most in the NFL, and Sanders operates behind the No. 2 PFF run-blocking unit. This is one of the healthiest ground-game environments in the league, which makes Sanders 17.5 opportunities per game (attempts plus targets) more valuable than other backs who get larger workloads.
Historically, Sanders has displayed explosive playmaking ability, and that has carried over into 2022. He ranks fifth in 10-plus-yard rushing attempts (15%) out of 50 RBs with at least 70 carries. The fourth-year RB is PFF’s No. 5 graded rusher (86.8).
In Week 15, the Eagles face a Bears team that invites opponents to run the ball the third-most per game (30.8) in non-overtime. Not only do teams run often against Chicago, but they also run wild thanks to the worst-graded PFF run defense. Teams average 146 yards and 1.6 TDs.
The Eagles are nine-point favorites in a game where they could eclipse 30 points on the scoreboard.
Sanders is a SMASH play and is my RB8 this weekend.
🥉 Tier 3 – Isiah Pacheco
Pacheco has quietly finished as the RB16, RB15 and RB17 over the last three games. Since taking over the lead early-down role in Week 10, he averages 16 rushing attempts per game and one target per game.
The rookie isn’t seeing much action in the passing game, and the Chiefs don’t feed him inside the five-yard line where they pass the third-most at 67%. These two factors typically keep Pacheco in the low-end RB2 range of the rankings, but this week he gets a special treat with a matchup against the Texans.
Houston allows the most rushing attempts (33.9) and yards (165) per game in non-overtime play. Pacheco has a shot at a 20-plus-touch game in a contest where Kansas City is favored by two TDs.
Pacheco moves into the high-end RB2 conversation this weekend as the RB13.
Wide Receiver
🥈 Tier 2 – Garrett Wilson
The Ohio State rookie has four top-16 finishes since taking over a starting role in Week 7, averaging 15.5 points per game. Wilson has become the centerpiece of the Jets' offense averaging 24% of the targets as a starter.
The rookie is playing at an elite level, ranking 18th in YPRR (2.00) and 12th in PFF receiving grade (84.7) out of 82 WRs with at least 250 routes. Only eight other WRs have delivered a PFF receiving grade in their rookie season: Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, Michael Thomas, Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans and Keenan Allen.
Wilson’s future is bright, but we need to look no further than Week 15 this season for a blow-up game opportunity. The Jets face a Lions defense with the third-worst PFF coverage grade (52.4). Detroit allows the third-most receiving yards per game (276) in non-regulation play and deploys the third-most man coverage (36%), where Wilson feasts (28% TPRR).
Wilson makes his top-12 debut, ranking as the WR9 in an absolute SMASH spot.
Check out all of the Fantasy Life Rankings!
🥶 The Dolphins try to simulate the cold in Buffalo. I'm putting on a jacket.
👨👦👦 Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow return. The gang's back together!
🤝 Bill Belichick shows some love to Nuk. Game recognize game.
💰 DFS Strategy from a pro. Find out who the best plays are for TNF.
🤠 The Odell Beckham saga continues. How soon can we be over this?
📈 You may not have noticed, but Chubb has a new role. This could be huge.
⚕ Arizona GM steps away due to health reasons. Can't get any wilder for the Cards.
😥 There's no Minshew-mania without Mike Leach. Minshew reflects on former coach.
👟 If you're looking for style, head out to Seattle. Dad runners unite!
😐 It's time to sit this veteran RB. It was fun while it lasted, but not really.
It's island game time, and we have you covered from a fantasy, DFS, and betting perspective. We also have previews and picks for every game in our Game Hub! 49ers @ Seahawks, take it away, Geoff...
The Seahawks come into this Thursday nighter off a bad 30-24 loss to the Panthers in a game that really wasn’t as close as the score indicates. Seattle has now lost three of their last four games and sits at second in the NFC West, two games behind the 9-4 49ers. The Seahawks are 3-3 at home this year and come into this game with just a +8.0 point differential on the season.
The 49ers didn’t retire Tom Brady last week, but they may have at least started the paperwork. The 49ers routed Tampa Bay 35-7 despite rolling with third-string quarterback Brock Purdy, who threw for two TDs and 8.8 yards per attempt in his first official pro start. The win was the 49ers sixth in a row and they enter this week with a massive +120.0 point differential on the year, but are just 3-3 on the road.
Despite these teams heading in very different directions in the standings of late, there are some concerns forming for the 49ers. Purdy (questionable – oblique) suffered an injury against the Buccaneers and his status for Thursday is up in the air. If he can’t go, then 36-year-old journeyman Josh Johnson, who has played for 14 different teams during his time in the league, would get the start.
San Francisco will also be without WR Deebo Samuel in this game, who suffered an ankle sprain last week. The 49ers look like they dodged the long-term injury bullet on Samuel (who was initially thought to be done for at least the regular season) but will be without his services for this game.
Seattle is also getting some positive news coming their way, as it looks like they’ll be getting RB Kenneth Walker back for this game. The Seahawks would love to establish some kind of run game after averaging just 19.7 rush attempts over the last three weeks, which is last in the NFL over that span. Getting any positive yardage on the ground may be tough against the 49ers, however, who allow just 3.4 yards per carry against (best in the NFL) and are ranked second in defensive DVOA against the run this year.
No matter who starts at quarterback for San Francisco, you have to figure they’ll still find a way to get the ball to Christian McCaffrey, and that in and of itself may be enough to win the game. McCaffrey was explosive, averaging 9.65 yards per touch last week, and will face off against one of the worst rush defenses in the league in Seattle. The Seahawks have allowed the fourth-most yards and TDs to RBs this year, and you can expect Kyle Shanahan to be dialing up plenty of opportunities for both McCaffrey and rookie Jordan Mason, who himself averaged 5.09 yards per carry on 11 attempts last week.
With the 49ers in possession of a semi-unstoppable rushing attack, and Seattle proving again last week that they are terrible at defending against exactly that kind of offense, this game will likely come down to the arm and legs of Geno Smith.
Smith had his worst output game of the season in the Week 2 loss to San Francisco but he did complete 80% of his passes in that meeting. The former 39th overall pick from the 2019 draft has been sacked sixth-most of any quarterback this season and has been dealing with minor injury concerns of late. He’s now thrown for four INTs in his last four games but has offset the mistakes with 8 TD passes.
The 49ers are a team of alphas and on a serious heater at the moment. At the same time, the Seahawks have been the ones getting positive news on the injury front and have a quarterback in Smith who has put up plenty of elite metrics this year – and currently sits fourth in yards per pass attempt among all starting quarterbacks. If he does play, it’s also worth noting that this will be Brock Purdy’s first road start in the NFL and first divisional game as well.
There are legitimate concerns about the Seahawks, who no longer look like anything better than a fringe playoff team. However, whoever starts at quarterback for the 49ers this week will also have undergone subpar preparation.
Despite the last three meetings between these two teams being decided by a TD or more, I expect Smith to at least keep the Seahawks close and potentially even pull-off the upset. The Seahawks won’t be a popular bet, but with the spread over the key number of 3.0, rolling with Seattle and the points is likely the right side for this Thursday.
Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what Jordan came up with for this week...All odds via BetMGM
Before we dive into this bet specifically, I want to chat about prop betting for a quick second.
Every week sportsbooks, like our friends at BetMGM, publish a ridiculous amount of betting offerings that you can choose from.
For each NFL game, every book publishes lines for the spread, moneyline, and total, and on top of that, they have alternate spread lines, game props, player props, and even live betting. The point here is that each week, to compete in the sports betting marketplace, these books are FORCED to publish these lines to compete for business.
From the perspective of a sports bettor, this is great news for us. We don’t have to bet on every line, but they still have to publish them...
We have the ability to shop around and find the best situations to wager on. This shouldn't be ignored.
This is where prop betting comes into play. Generally speaking, the player prop market is significantly “less protected” for sports book operators due to the sheer amount of prop lines that get published for a given game. In theory, it becomes challenging for sports books to manage this sort of volume, and that, combined with a majority of pro bettors focusing on spreads, leaves prop betting to be a vulnerable market.
When you find an edge, exploit it.
🔥 Christian McCaffrey over 119.5 Rush + Rec Yards
Going into Thursday Night Football on a short week, the 49ers are more than a little banged up. Elijah Mitchel remains out, Deebo Samuel suffered an ankle injury in Week 14, and Brock Purdy is less than 100% as well. This situation sets up very well for McCaffrey to be massively involved in both the receiving and rushing game plan.
The Fantasy Life Projections think that McCaffrey is in line to take over a majority of Samuel's rushing workload, giving him an estimated 60% rushing attempt market share. That would account for around a 15-20% increase in the rushing department.
That market share has us projecting McCaffrey for over 84 rushing yards, a 5-yard edge over BetMGM's line of 79.5.
On the receiving end of this prop, we have McCaffrey projected for 47.4 receiving yards, which is over a 12-yard difference on BetMGM's line of 35.5. In total, this bet gives us an estimated 17+ yard advantage.
