If you’re not already betting Super Bowl lookahead lines, you’re not the most intelligently degenerate bettor you know …
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Buffalo Wild Wings:
- Super Bowl Projections: Futures and lookahead lines …
- Unabated: To hedge or not to hedge, that is the question.
- Jared Goff: Not a Bay guy.
- Best Bets: No Deebo, no problem?
- It’s 1/25: Take it away, Matthew Freedman …
Our friends at Unabated have an NFL Season Simulator that allows users to upload data and play out 10,000 seasons.
So this week, I’ve created two sets of postseason projections: One using the Unabated Simulator (with my power ratings, home-field advantage values, and QB ATS values) and one using my game models, which have some inputs I can’t upload to Unabated (such as travel effects).
Then, I averaged the projections together to calculate each team’s odds of winning the Super Bowl.
On top of that, I’ve projected the spreads and moneylines for all four possible Super Bowl matchups.
Here are my projections, along with two bets I think offer value.
🏆 Odds to Win Super Bowl
- Ravens: 39.5% | +153
- 49ers: 35.8% | +179
- Chiefs: 14.9% | +573
- Lions: 9.8% | +922
🔢 Possible Super Bowl Matchups
- Ravens vs. 49ers: Ravens -0.75, -106
- Ravens vs. Lions: Ravens -5.25, -217
- 49ers vs. Chiefs: 49ers -2, -118
- Chiefs vs. Lions: Chiefs -2.75, -133
☝️ Ravens to Win Super Bowl
- Best Line: +190 (DraftKings)
- Projection: +153
I first highlighted the Ravens as a valuable Super Bowl bet — at +700 — in the Week 14 Sunday Betting Life Newsletter. And even though their odds have drastically shortened, I still think they offer value.
The Ravens are the No. 1 team in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings (+11.07). They have the No. 2 defense in EPA (-0.131, per RBs Don’t Matter). QB Lamar Jackson is playing at a top-three level.
One can see how the Chiefs and QB Patrick Mahomes beat the Ravens this weekend (more on that in a second), but I believe the Ravens have the edge.
🏹 Super Bowl Matchup: Chiefs +3 vs. 49ers
- Best Line: -115 (FanDuel)
- Projection: Chiefs +2
Some books have already posted lookahead lines for potential Super Bowl matchups, and I like the Chiefs getting points against the 49ers.
This bet will void if these teams don’t meet in the Super Bowl. If they do, the Chiefs as road dogs will have bested the top-rated Ravens, while the 49ers as big home favorites will have beaten “only” the Lions.
In that instance, I would expect the Chiefs to get a markedly bigger upgrade than the 49ers and for this spread to shorten, and I like the Chiefs at the current line anyway.
Also, this bet can be used as a freeroll hedge on any Ravens position: If the Ravens beat the Chiefs, this bet will evaporate, but if the Ravens lose this weekend, then at least we’ll have a shot to pick up extra value on the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.
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Jason Scavone from Unabated looks at whether bettors should hedge their Super Bowl tickets …
The 49ers are the Super Bowl favorite at any book you care to open, including +140 at FanDuel. But imagine you bought a $100 Niners Super Bowl future at +750 after Week 1.
Now that you’re two thin wins away from cashing your well-appointed ticket, doubt starts creeping into your head.
What if the Lions are for real? What if the Niners are a different team without WR Deebo Samuel (shoulder)?
What if Thanos-inevitable QB Patrick Mahomes makes it in?
Should I hedge?
Set aside those doubts. Usually, the answer is “no.”
🤔 Deciding Whether to Hedge
Here are the prices of the four contenders at FanDuel, along with their implied probabilities. You can do those odds-to-probability calculations quickly using an Odds Converter.
- San Francisco +140 (41.7%)
- Baltimore +170 (37%)
- Kansas City +450 (18.2%)
- Detroit +850 (10.5%)
To figure out if you should hedge, you can use a tool like a Hedge Betting Calculator, but first you need to know some probabilities, including the chance your team wins and what price you’d have to pay to bet the other three.
Niners get 41.7%. But the others don’t add up to 59.3%. That’s because anything over 100% in a market is the overround, or vig. In this case, FanDuel can expect to keep around 7% of the total action after paying out winning tickets.
The other teams’ combined probability is 65.7%. Convert that back to American odds, and it’s a price of -192.
Now that you have two sides, you can use a No-Vig Fair Odds Calculator to get true implied probabilities. In this case, it’s San Francisco 37.91% (or -117) and everyone else 62.09% (+117).
But no matter how nice we ask the sportsbooks, we can’t bet the vig-free number. So when we plug everything into the hedge calculator, we’ll use our aggregate price of -192 so we don’t have to do this exercise individually for each team.
Assuming you have a $10,000 starting bankroll and you put $100 on the future, the calculator says it’s not worth it to your bankroll to hedge this bet by spreading money around the rest of the field.
At its core, hedging is about minimizing risk and maximizing bankroll growth. The answer to whether you should hedge will change depending on the size of your current bankroll.
The original expected value of our initial bet says 37.91% of the time we win $750 and 62.09% of the time we lose $100. The expected value of the bet is:
($750*.3791)-($100*.6209) = $222.24
If you wanted to guarantee at least $100 in profit on the hedge at -192, you’d have to bet at least $384. If our initial bet wins, great. We’ve bet a combined $484 and returned $850 for a profit of $366. If our hedge bet wins, we’ve bet $484 and returned $584 for a profit of $100.
But look at the EV of the hedge bet. The price is -192, and our true odds are 62.09%.
($200*.6209)-($384*.3701) = -$13.94
The first bet has a huge positive expectation. The second, a negative expectation.
We already said that hedging is mostly a math problem, but pro bettor Rufus Peabody says it’s also a psychological question.
“Hedge betting is very difficult for some people because of regret,” he writes. “If you don’t hedge a potential big payday and the bet ends up losing, you kick yourself for not hedging. If you hedge and the original bet wins, you kick yourself for hedging.”
Check Out Rufus’ Thoughts on Hedging
🏀 Knicks (+2.5) vs. Nuggets (-108, FanDuel)
Break up the Knicks! New York is a near-perfect 10-2 since getting OG Anunoby in the lineup, with their two losses coming by just four points apiece. They’re second in the league in Net Rating over that stretch, outscoring opponents by an average of +12.9 points per 100 possessions.
They’ll take the court as home underdogs vs. the Nuggets, who are just 6-12-1 ATS as road favorites. The Knicks are 2-1-1 as home dogs, so this is a perfect opportunity to target them.
📺 Injuries, line moves, and best bets. How to attack the conference championships.
🤕 Even Superman has a weakness. The 49ers have been his Kryptonite.
🌃 Whatever the iron (bowl) price was it was not paid. Imagine betting on a basketball game with no lights.
💰 Speaking of bets, we have lots. And they WIN! Up +52.3 units on the NFL season.
⚡️ A new era? After hiring a new HC this team’s 2025 Super Bowl odds plummeted.
🐐 Don’t disrespect the GOAT. History says that when bettors fade this star he tends to shine.
💣 The Gray man? If this Chiefs receiver scores Sunday he’ll pay off at ginormous odds.
💬 Chat directly with our bettors, get daily picks in real-time, and more. Just one click away.
Every week, Matthew Freedman writes an article with some of his favorite bets for spread, totals, and moneylines. Here are a couple of them, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.
⬇️ Ravens-Chiefs Under 44.5 (-110, BetMGM)
- Projection: 42.4
- Logged Bet: Under 45
Since 2003, outdoor unders in the postseason are 101-77-5 (9.6% ROI).
More importantly, we have two top-six defenses, a Chiefs offense that underwhelmed for the supermajority of the season and a Ravens offense that should be able to grind the clock down with its running attack.
The Chiefs have been the league’s most extreme under team this year.
- Under: 13-6
- ROI: 30.8%
- Margin: +6.34
And the Chiefs have been even more profitable on second-half unders.
- Under: 17-2
- ROI: 72.3%
- Margin: +7.68
That makes sense to me. The Chiefs have a strong defense that can make halftime adjustments. The Chiefs offense, though, is less capable of making meaningful changes at the half.
If the Chiefs enter the third quarter with a lead, they have neither the ability nor the inclination on offense to pile on the points. And if the Chiefs trail, they’re vulnerable enough with their rush defense to allow opponents to run the clock and decrease the number of possessions in the game.
As much as I like under 44.5, I probably like 2H under 22.5 even more.
⛏️ 49ers-Lions Over 50.5 (-115, FanDuel)
- Projection: 51.9
- Logged Bet: Over 50.5
I’m skeptical that WR Deebo Samuel (shoulder) will play this week, but I think the impact of his absence will be overestimated.
The 49ers underwhelmed in the four games Samuel missed or exited early this year, but in those games the 49ers were also dealing with significant weather issues or the absence of first-team All-Pro LT Trent Williams.
This week, Williams is healthy, and the weather forecast is ideal at Levi’s Stadium: I think the 49ers offense will be almost as functional as it usually is.
It doesn’t hurt that Lions games are 12-7 (20.4% ROI) to the over this year.
Also, I haven’t bet the first half over (24.5, -110) — but I’m thinking about it.
The 1H over is 12-6 (28.3% ROI) in 49ers games, and I can imagine both teams starting fast with their scripted plays.
Check Out the Rest of Freedman’s Best Bets!
