And then there were eight…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Fantasy Life on YouTube:
- The Bills and Buccaneers advance to the Divisional Round
- Utilization Report: Isiah Pacheco, running back, THE running back, y’all
- Early Rankings: All-in on the Sun God
- The Chargers brought in Jim Harbaugh for an interview
- Fantasy Football Report: Jordan Love is the Real Deal Holyfield
- It’s 1/16. Take it away, Ian Hartitz…
Planet Earth was treated to a pair of relatively underwhelming playoff matchups on Monday with the Bills (31-17) and Buccaneers (32-9) emerging victorious over the Steelers and Eagles.
💯 Josh Allen played like he had an S on his chest
Overall, the stud QB threw for 203 yards and a trio of scores to go along with 74 rushing yards and an electric 52-yard TD run.
Whether or not the Steelers thought Allen was about to slide — what a play!
The Bills are now 17-0 when Allen hasn’t had a turnover since 2020.
Some might say it’s a “Joshumentary” when the former MVP runner-up has everything clicking like he did on Monday, but Allen certainly got by with a little help from his friends — particularly WR Khalil Shakir who showed off some breathtaking tackle-breaking ability on this 17-yard TD dagger.
Get your popcorn ready for next Sunday night’s matchup against the Chiefs in Buffalo.
🕛 The clock struck midnight on Mason Rudolph’s fairytale story
Rudolph was putting forward remarkable efficiency during the final three weeks of the NFL regular season, but he struggled to consistently lead the Steelers offense down the field on Monday afternoon.
He wasn’t terrible on his way to throwing for 229 yards and a pair of TDs, but the end zone INT was no bueno, and the offense’s lone TD drive of the first three quarters was thanks in large part to a short field enabled by a blocked field goal.
Tough loss for a Steelers franchise that quietly hasn’t captured a playoff W since January 15, 2017. Let’s just say Mike Tomlin’s press conference reaction to being asked about only having one year left on his contract was … interesting.
🏴☠️ Baker Mayfield and the Bucs are heading to Detroit
Kudos to Mayfield for continuing to look like a perfectly solid NFL starting QB on his way to throwing for 337 yards and three TDs. Honestly, that box score doesn't tell the full story: Buccaneers pass-catchers dropped a handful of targets, most notably Mike Evans (3-48-0) on a pair of potential long gains (this one could have been a TD).
Of course, the performance was boosted by some seriously suspect open-field tackling by the Eagles, as both WR David Moore (from 44 yards out) and WR Trey Palmer (56) broke multiple tackles on their respective YAC-filled TDs.
Few (nobody?) expected the NFC South to collect more playoff wins than the NFC East this year — but here we are! Congrats to the Buccaneers; here’s to hoping their rematch with the Lions is more competitive than the 20-6 loss they took back in Week 6.
😬 The Eagles are done flying
The offense was largely lifeless on their way to scoring just one TD on the afternoon. DeVonta Smith (8-148-0) was the only skill-position talent to total over 70 yards of offense for crying out loud.
You knew things were bad when Philly couldn’t even convert a tush push on a two-point conversion attempt from the one-yard line.
The loss marked the Eagles' sixth in their final seven games of the season. Jalen Hurts (250 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 1-5-0 rushing) didn’t look like his usual self athletically throughout the evening; it’s worth wondering just how much his nagging knee injury limited him down the stretch. Of course, not having No. 1 WR A.J. Brown (knee) didn’t help matters either.
This was undoubtedly a disappointing season for the Eagles, who have some SERIOUS off-season questions to ask when it comes to their defense and coaching staff. Suddenly not great, Howie.
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Just eight teams remain in the Super Bowl hunt ahead of … is there not a wonky nickname for the Divisional Round? We have “Super Wild Card Weekend” and “Championship Sunday” but nothing here?
Okay, sorry, ANYWAYS — there are just seven more NFL games before football fans are forced to hibernate for six months, so what better way to make sure you are caught up on all of the latest utilization changes than by listening to Professor Dwain McFarland’s good word ahead of the weekend?
Presenting: The Fantasy Life Divisional Round Utilization Report.
📈 Isiah Pacheco has morphed into a near-every-down back
The former Round 7 NFL Draft selection has commanded a 73% snap share since Jerick McKinnon was placed on IR ahead of Week 16. Over that stretch, Pacheco has bogarted 78% of the rushing attempts and taken over the two-minute offense (83%), enhancing his outlook in the passing game with a 14% target share.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is getting most of the long-down-distance work (67%), but those are historically low-calorie snaps. Pacheco is the lead short-yardage back with 83% of the snaps, including the high-leverage opportunities inside the five-yard line.
Pacheco has averaged 19.7 points per game over the last three outings, with 17.7 attempts and 4.3 targets per contest and that holds up when looking at historical comps. Since 2012, similar backs have averaged 18.5 points with an RB5 finish.
Outlook: Pacheco UPGRADES to mid-range RB1 territory.
📈 Nico Collins is dominating the Texans’ passing attack
Collins has eclipsed 70% route participation in three contests since the loss of Tank Dell to injury. In those games, the third-year WR has taken over Houston’s passing game with a 32% target share and 44% air yards share.
Collins’ 3.17 yards per route run (YPRR) ranks second in the NFL behind only Tyreek Hill, and his 26.4% TPRR ranks 10th. Since 2012, WRs with his profile have averaged 17.2 fantasy points per game with a WR11 finish.
Outlook: Collins is a low-end WR1 with high-end WR1 upside.
📈 Rashee Rice’s historical comps suggest he is a borderline WR1
Since taking over a full-time role in Week 14, Rice has averaged 9.2 targets (27%) and 56.4 air yards (29%) per contest. His expanded involvement in the offense has led to 20.2 fantasy points per game with three top-eight finishes.
The targets are high-end WR1 material, but his air yards and aDOT are below WR1 thresholds. However, based on the last 12 seasons of data, Rice’s comp group faired well, finishing as the WR13 on average with 16.4 points per contest.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Chris Godwin
- Jarvis Landry
- Jaylen Waddle
- Julian Edelman
- Keenan Allen
That’s not too shabby. Those WRs have all posted at least one top-12 finish, and most have multiple in their career. Playing in a pass-first offense with Patrick Mahomes, it’s hard to imagine Rice not paying off at least WR2 value next season while offering WR1 upside if he follows the path of St. Brown.
Outlook: Rice UPGRADES to high-end WR2 territory.
MORE Utilization Takeaways ahead of the Divisional Round
It’s Tuesday, which means Freedman was up at the crack of dawn publishing his Fantasy Football rankings for the week. Wait…rankings…in the playoffs? Yes, for you sickos in playoff leagues, Freedman has you covered. Get a sneak peek below…
🤝 The Commanders have a new general manager. Officially official.
📺 Recapping a wild…Wild Card Weekend. Ian and Dwain have you covered.
👏 A legend calls it a career. Next stop: Canton.
📊 An updated look at every remaining playoff team. Can the Bucs and Packers pull off another upset?
🗣️ Morale in Detroit has reached an all-time high. That’s their quarterback.
🤔 The Falcons Head Coaching interviews are underway. He has a history with elite TEs…
🤣 Tyreek Hill reacts to a rough rep. Way to be a good sport.
⚡ The Chargers completed a big-name interview. Who's got it better than them?
🤯 Justin Fields might go for HOW high of a 2024 pick?! Madness.
🔥 Bad weather wasn’t enough to stop Bills Mafia from having a fun time. Guys being dudes.
🦅 Who scheduled the Emmys at the same time as the Eagles game? At least it’s always sunny in Philadelphia.
There were several great individual performances during Super Wild Card Weekend, but nobody stole the show quite like Packers QB Jordan Love. The playoff victory might have been his true coming-out party, although true ball-knowers were already well aware of just how good the former 2020 first-round pick had been playing for the previous two months.
This brings us to Fantasy Life senior analyst Ian Hartitz, who is here to reflect on Love’s hot stretch and ponder the $200-plus million question: Can he keep it up?
Sorry everyone (especially Cowboys and Bears fans): It looks like the Packers have another franchise QB.
Jordan Love’s near-perfect 272-yard and three TD performance not only earned the TD underdogs a resounding 48-32 victory in Jerry World, but also likely cemented the 25-year-old talent as Green Bay’s QB of the future.
Yes, it was just one game. Also yes, it was literally the most efficient playoff performance since 2000 in terms of EPA per play (+1.13).
I mean, what the hell is this witchcraft?
The Wild Card W itself contained a $500,000 escalator for Love’s current base salary, which could look like chump change when considering his potential incoming extension.
There are currently 12 QBs making at least $40 million on a yearly basis. The low-end bar of Daniel Jones or Russell Wilson is no longer a question – now the predicament seems to be whether or not Love is already one of the game’s top-five QBs … period.
🧀 Recapping Jordan Love’s 2023 Season
Longevity matters in discussions like these; just realize Love has truly been anyone’s idea of an elite signal-caller ever since November rolled around.
Love among 38 QBs with 100-plus dropbacks in Weeks 9 through the Wild Card Round
- EPA per dropback: +0.294 (No. 2)
- CPOE: +5.9% (No. 2)
- PFF Pass Grade: 91.9 (No. 1)
- Passer rating: 111.6 (No. 2)
- Yards per attempt: 8 (No. 7)
Sure, a few of the performances were aided by cozy matchups against bottom-10 defenses like the Buccaneers, Chargers, Lions, and Panthers, but Love also managed to shine bright in TOUGH spots against two of of the league's very best pass defenses:
- vs. Chiefs (No. 3 in EPA allowed per pass): 25 for 36 (69.4%), 267 yards (7.4 YPA), 3 TD, 0 INT
- vs. Cowboys (No. 6): 16 for 21 (76%), 272 yards (13 YPA), 3 TD, 0 INT
His Week 10 performance against the Steelers was one of the first signs that Love could be especially lethal in extending the play. The NFL’s second-ranked QB in yards per scramble (9.1) behind only Kyler Murray (10.1), Love possesses a combination of athleticism and arm talent that has proved to be absolutely devastating inside this ever-well schemed Matt LaFleur-led attack.
Opposing defenses have been forced to account for nearly every square inch of the field on any given snap, resulting in only the 49ers posting a higher EPA per play and averaging more yards per play than the Packers since Week 9.
Of course, the X’s and O’s can only take the Jim’s and Joe’s so far: These young Packers pass-catchers have been balling out this season.
- Jayden Reed (24 in April) joins D.J. Moore, Deebo Samuel and Percy Harvin as rookie WRs with 750-plus receiving yards, eight-plus yards per target and 100-plus rushing yards (H/T @DynoGameTheory).
- Dontayvion Wicks (23 in June) has scored four times in his last three games, even proving capable of winning one-on-one with stud Cowboys CB Stephon Gilmore.
- Romeo Doubs (24 in April) 6-151-1 performance against the Cowboys was the cherry on top of a low-key impressive 59-674-8 regular season campaign.
- Christian Watson (25 in May) flashed weekly game-breaking upside down the stretch of 2022 and was heating up with 2-21-1, 5-94-1 and 7-71-2 performances before suffering (another) hamstring injury back in Week 13.
- Bo Melton (25 in May) tied for seventh among 123 WRs with 25-plus targets this season in yards per route run (2.68).
And that doesn’t even include long-time stud RB Aaron Jones, who has ripped off four consecutive 100-plus yard performances on the ground while averaging at least five yards per pop in every game along the way.
Hell, rookie TEs Tucker Kraft (24 in November) and Luke Musgrave (24 in September) have also emerged as viable all-around options, earning more than respectable 67.5 (26th) and 62.0 (44th) PFF offensive grades this season.
This brings us to the (likely) $200 million-plus question:
