📝 Mock Draft 3.0: Jayden Daniels > Drake Maye

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In today’s Betting Life Newsletter presented by OddsJam:

We are nearing the finish line for the NBA regular season. We have approximately one month left until the start of the play-in tournament, but there’s still plenty at stake for most teams.

Some are looking to solidify a guaranteed postseason spot or secure home-court advantage in the first round. Others are jockeying for positioning in the play-in tournament. Some of the less fortunate teams are attempting to land as many ping-pong balls as possible in the NBA lottery.

Ultimately, most teams have about 18 games to get things squared away.

That includes six games to choose from on Monday. Let’s dive into some of my favorite betting options:

🐎 San Antonio Spurs (+4.5) vs. Golden State Warriors (-110; BetMGM)

The Warriors are not in a good place at the moment. Thankfully, they have a pretty large gap in the standings over the No. 11 team (Houston Rockets), so they’re not in any real danger of missing the play-in tournament. That said, they’re likely going to have to try to make the postseason from the No. 9 or 10 spot. That means winning two straight games just to earn a trip to one of the top seeds in the conference in the first round.

The biggest reason for pessimism involves the injury to Steph Curry. He’s already been ruled out for Monday’s contest vs. the Spurs, and there’s no guarantee he’s able to return to the lineup shortly after.

It goes without saying that Curry is the Warriors. While the rest of the team has started to show their age, Curry is having another fantastic season. He’s averaging nearly 27 points per game while shooting better than 40% from 3-point range, and his impact on the team’s offense can’t be overstated. The Warriors average +5.4 additional points per 100 possessions with Curry on the court, and they increase their effective field goal percentage by +4.1% (per Cleaning the Glass).

Without Curry on Saturday, the team suffered a 13-point home loss to these same Spurs. San Antonio didn’t even have Victor Wembanyama or Devin Vassell available for that contest, and both players are expected to suit up on Monday. With this game being played in San Antonio, I’m happy to grab the 4.5 points with the home squad.

🇧🇦 Jusuf Nurkic Over 11.5 rebounds (+105; DraftKings)

Nurkic can be a bit of a forgotten man for the Suns. He’s not seen as a member of their “big three,” but he’s been a huge part of their rotation. The team has averaged +8.8 additional points per 100 possessions with him on the floor this season while allowing -6.2 fewer on defense.

Nurkic’s biggest contributions have come on the glass. He’s racked up at least 10 boards in seven straight games, and he’s had at least 12 in five of them. He went off for a monster 31 rebounds vs. the Thunder, making him one of just five players to eclipse 30 rebounds in the 21st century.

The Cavaliers are a tough matchup for rebounding purposes, but they’re a bit less intimidating without Mobley. They’ve posted a rebound rate of just 49.3% over their past three games, which represents a meaningful decrease compared to their season average of 50.6%. With Nurkic rolling, I don’t expect his rebounding streak to end on Monday.

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🚨 The free agency dominos are falling. Get real-time updates here.

🏆 Back to back to back. Caitlin Clark and Iowa erase a 13-point deficit for their third-straight Big 10 title.

🏦 This bank was open late. The Gamecocks nailed a buzzer-beater to knock off Tennessee and keep their perfect season alive.

🤯 I don’t always bet on the Oscars, but when I do, I parlay them with three other sports. Oppenheimer completed a wild parlay.

💸 Rudy Gobert had some thoughts about the officiating in Friday’s loss to the Cavs. Now, his wallet is $100k lighter.

⛳ A favorite finally wins. Scheffler takes down the API, and he was a (very) popular bet. 

🏆 Luka Doncic makes history with his sixth-straight 30-point triple-double. Is it enough to get him in the MVP conversation?

🚪 Purdue bettors, avert your eyes. Wisconsin with the meaningless steal and dunk to waltz in the backdoor.

🏀 Our NBA bets can feel the KENergy. Up +14.02 units on the season.

With free agency just a few days away, Matthew Freedman shares his updated 2024 NFL mock draft.

Here are my top 10, with notes on the top three.

🏈 2024 NFL Mock Draft

• 1.01 (Bears): QB Caleb Williams (USC)

• 1.02 (Commanders): QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)

• 1.03 (Patriots): QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)

• 1.04 (Cardinals): WR Marvin Harrison (Ohio State)

• 1.05 (Chargers): OT Joe Alt (Notre Dame)

• 1.06 (Giants): WR Malik Nabers (LSU)

• 1.07 (Titans): OT Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State)

• 1.08 (Falcons): EDGE Dallas Turner (Alabama)

• 1.09 (Bears): WR Rome Odunze (Washington)

• 1.10 (Jets): OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State)

🔒 1.01 (Bears): QB Caleb Williams (USC)

Any mock that doesn’t have Williams No. 1 overall is trying too hard. He goes No. 1 in 100% of the mocks I’ve surveyed over the past month.

The price is steep, but he might still be bettable at -1200 (DraftKings). For some price-shopping perspective, he’s already as high at another book as -2000 (FanDuel).

By the time we get to draft day, this number could be -5000.

I originally bet Williams No. 1 at -900 and logged it in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.

📈 1.02 (Commanders): QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)

Ben Standig of The Athletic — a sharp mock drafter and ace beat reporter for the Commanders — has Daniels at No. 2.

Mike Sando (also of The Athletic) surveyed six NFL executives during and after the combine: Five expected Daniels to go to Washington.

In his first show after the combine, Rich Eisen of NFL Network highlighted the five juiciest rumors he heard in Indianapolis — and one of them was that Daniels is the QB2 ahead of Drake Maye in this class.

Maye is still a minus-money favorite across the industry to go No. 2, but I think that’s flat-out wrong. I bet Daniels No. 2 at +155, and I still like him enough at +120 (FanDuel).

📉 1.03 (Patriots): QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)

At this point, I’m not convinced that Maye goes ahead of WR Marvin Harrison or QB J.J. McCarthy.

But based on the numbers, it’s not as if there’s much analytically “wrong” with Maye. He had a 9.0 AY/A in college with 302-1,209-16 rushing. He has sufficient size (6’4” and 223 lbs.). With two years of starting experience and good production, he’s not a one-year wonder. And he’s not old (22 years old as a rookie).

Even so, his draft stock has dropped since the season ended.