Adapt or die trying, fantasy draftersā¦
In todayās Fantasy Life Newsletter:
- A strategy to help lean into WR-heavy drafts.
- What Now? Find out how you really feel.
- Quad SZN returns. A BIG sighting.
- Panthers Preview: In or out on Miles Sanders?
- It's 6/7. Take it away, Dwain McFarlandā¦
Fantasy drafters are flocking to the high-flying superstars of the gridiron in the early rounds. Get it? Flocking and high-flying? Yeah, we are talking about the guys that do their damage primarily via the air ā the WRs!
Last season we saw some of the craziest WR ADPs ever, and the price tags have increased. According to Underdog, the top 50 WRs are going 3.9 spots higher on average.
Due to this trend, we have insane RB value falling down the board, which might lead us to zig while others zag and snap up multiple RBs early.
While that sounds great on the surface (and I am a proponent of trying it at times), the challenge with going all-in on RBs early is drafters arenāt relenting at WR after the first four rounds.
Historically, you might have made up for a weak start at WR in the early-middle rounds. Unfortunately, on Underdog, the WR avalanche can be too deep to dig our way out for two reasons:
By the time we start taking WRs, the QUALITY is lower than in recent years.
It is difficult to draft the QUANTITY of solid options needed to give us a chance to hit on enough WRs.
Unlike RB, volume isnāt king in WR land.
Talent is king, and if a WR canāt earn targets, getting on the field doesnāt matter. The supply of high-quality target-earning humans is much lower than the demand, and the market has figured this out.
Q: So, how do we combat the WR craze?
A: Embrace it.
Thatās right, our best chance of survival might be embracing the avalanche. However, we must have a plan for the RB position to pull that off. Luckily, we have some unique opportunities at RB ā especially if we pick from an early or middle position on Underdog.
š» The M&M RB Strategy
Two RBs in high-quality offenses are going in Rounds 5 and 7. Both have RB1 upside but are shrouded by uncertainty, leading to lower ADPs.
š» Joe Mixon (56 ADP)
He could still face suspension, but the Bengals havenāt added any significant competition. Cincinnatiās lack of offseason movement doesnāt mean Mixon is in the clear, but it doesnāt hurt. Mixon has deteriorated as a rusher over the past few seasons but was highly active in the passing game last year on a top-five offense.
He has averaged 15.2, 16.8 and 15.0 points over the last three years in half-PPR formats. That is RB1-worthy.
š» Alexander Mattison (77 ADP)
Mattison signed a new contract this offseason with the Vikings, and there are rumors that Dalvin Cook could be a cap casualty.
A trade would free up $11 million, and a release would save the team $9 million. The team tried to move him during the NFL Draft but couldnāt get anything finalized. Recently, the Vikingsā social media featured Mattison on their banner, not Cook.
In games without Cook, Mattison has finished as the RB47, RB4, RB7, RB6, RB8 and RB13. Forecasting similar finishes on a larger sample doesnāt always work, but at a minimum, Mattison has RB1 upside.
While it is risky, it is worth building at least a few lineups around Mixon & Mattison because we can offset the WR avalanche AND access upside at RB.
Each of these builds leaves multiple outs for QB stacks later and has some natural Week 17 correlation already established.
This strategy isnāt for the faint of heart because we embrace unknowns. However, the payoff is potentially huge (which is what we care about in top-heavy contests).
The key is drafting with the expectation that Mixon and Mattison WILL provide you with RB1-worthy performances. So, from Round 9 on, draft as if you took them much earlier!
Head over to Underdog and use the Code LIFE to receive a 100% first deposit match on up to $100! Good luck!
Welcome, degenerates. We donāt unplug just because the NFL does. Youāre reading this newsletter because youāre here for the long haul. āWhat now, Cooter?ā Each week Iāll break down ways to survive the off-season.
š Survival Tip #12: Find Out How You Really Feel
Weāve all heard of the Coin Flip strategy, right? You flip a coin on a tough decision to let heads or tails decide, but the outcome is only a suggestion. You donāt have to follow suit.
In fact, research has shown that by using a coin flip as an aid, it can result in individuals experiencing āstronger feeling[s] of suddenly knowing what they want.ā So as any true scientist would, I put this theory to the ultimate fantasy football test.
Thatās right, I joined a 4-team, best ball league with three of my buddies with a bottle of tequila on the line.
The prize made it meaningful.
The small league size made it novel enough to be unpredictable. And like I always tell my husband, best ball leagues donāt count. They donāt add to the overall number of leagues youāre in because they donāt require any in-season management.
So, itās fine. Seriously, itās not a big deal, babe!
All jokes aside, this draft was exactly what I needed to find out how I really feel about certain draft strategies and players.
Late QB? Zero RB? My guys?
This was my metaphorical coin flip. And yes, I experienced stronger feelings of suddenly knowing what I want. Science!
Here are three things that I learned about myself. Will these be meaningful for you? I donāt know, flip your own metaphorical coin.
I need to leave with one of: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, or Lamar Jackson. Can I wait on QB and be fine? Sure. But will I be happy? NO.
If I donāt get Bijan Robinson, Rhamondre Stevenson, or Tony Pollard, Iām about to have a bad time.
I still canāt stop drafting DeVonta Smith.
I may be a Saints fan, but I sure donāt draft like one. Sorry, Michael Thomas. You canāt hurt me anymore.
*Disclaimer, I still cannot draft on Underdog in Louisiana. Please call my local representatives for me. Thanks.
The best part about this 4-team draft is that my team is STACKED. I mean, so are the other teams, but mine is, too.
wOw MuSt Be A FoUr TeAm LeAgUe https://t.co/sQDHxLtrPt
And now, I have clarity for my big-league drafts. The haze has been lifted, and I know what I need to do. Now itās your turn. Find a way to shake things up. Flip the coin. Find out how you really feel.
š¤£ You canāt bet on games. But sometimes you have to gambleā¦
š His rushing profile looks fantastic. But there ARE questions.
š Can this QB regain his old form? His best practice since arriving.
āļø This former NFL player is down 100+ pounds. How did he do it?
š“ A three-way TE rotation? The 2022 draft pick is HUNGRY.
š¬ Beastmode hitting the box office? That is a wild premise.
š¦µļø Quadzilla returns. Letās be honest, he could also be Glutezillaā¦
šļøāāļø Will the vet WR be ready for camp? He says he will be back to form.
šØāš©āš¦ Dynasty is special. You are building a family.
Fantasy Life senior analyst Ian Hartitz is breaking down all 32 NFL teams over the next two months. Letās take a look at the Panthers, who revamped their entire offense, starting with the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draftā¦
š RBs
Miles Sanders (Ianās RB22)
Chuba Hubbard (RB57)
Raheem Blackshear (RB105)
The former Eagles RB has averaged five yards per carry for his career while demonstrating true flashes of big-play ability. In fact, Sanders posted a 15% 10-plus yard attempt rate in 2021 and followed that up with 13% in 2022, which ranked ninth-best among RBs.
And yet, itās hard to not look at that high-end efficiency with just a bit of skepticism. Dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts regularly helped open up wider rushing lanes thanks to his read option threat, and it certainly didnāt hurt that Sanders was running behind PFFās top-ranked offensive line last season.
PFF Elusive Rating, which measures the success and impact of a runner with the ball independently of the blocking, does a good job of illustrating Sandersā game. Heās more than capable of getting whatās blocked and can get from zero to 60 in a hurry, but there isnāt much consistent wiggle or high-end ability to pick up yards after contact here. Here are Sanders's elusive ratings:
2022: 55.1 (No. 22 among 42 qualifying RBs)
2021: 51.9 (No. 24)
2020: 59.9 (No. 16)
2019: 47.9 (No. 31)
Style points donāt equate to extra fantasy points, so Sanders is free to pick up yards and TDs in whatever manner he sees fit. Still, a quick highlight recap of last season shows all sorts of examples of the 26-year-old back mightily benefiting from one gaping hole after another.
Perhaps the Panthersā reigning 21st-ranked offensive line in PFF run blocking grade can take their game to another level in 2023, but they largely declined to add any sort of real reinforcements to the group either through the draft or free agency.
Good fantasy RBs are more prevalent in bad real-life offenses than any position other than QB, so Sanders doesnāt need to be overly efficient with his opportunities to be productive in fantasy as long as he gets the heavy majority of touches in this backfield.
Of course, projecting whether or not Sanders will get a true three-down role depends on which offseason quote you want to use.
Back in February, Panthers RBs coach Duce Staley said that he believes in using three RBs and noted that playing at the RB position is like being āin a car wreck". Then in April, Sanders said that reuniting with Staley was the main reason he signed with the Panthers and that āthey know Iām a three-down back".
Sanders did indeed see a far bigger pass-down role when Staley was the Eagles' RBs coach in 2019 and 2020 (115 targets) compared to 2021 and 2022 (60), although that could also be more of a result of playing alongside a dual-threat QB. Itās also fair to wonder if Sanders regressed as a pass-catcher since then, as he joined Derrick Henry as the two worst-rated backs in PFF receiving grade last year.
Ultimately, my bigger concern is the reality that Sanders never averaged even 14 carries per game in the 2019 and 2020 seasons under Staley. Those offenses made sure to also keep guys like Jordan Howard and Boston Scott heavily involved, so Hubbard and Blackshear could still eat into Sanders's rushing workload in 2023, even if they're not big names.
The Panthers obviously paid Sanders plenty of money for a reason, but the history of RBs changing teams in free agency has been rather brutal in recent years.
Sandersās path to success will necessitate seizing a three-down role or at least something close to it. While that's possible, his floor could be low as an early-down grinder for what sure looks like one of the NFLās bottom-10 offenses.
Iām out on Sanders at his current RB17 ADP, as guys like Cam Akers (RB24), Rachaad White (RB25), and James Conner (RB27) offer similar hopes for three-down roles in bad offenses and are going multiple rounds later over at Underdog Fantasy. There are also plenty of upside WR3 options available in this ADP range, so donāt go out of your way to land anyone on this likely-to-be sad Panthers offense.
How About The Revamped WR Room?
Bruce Arians only has 1 championship with Tom Brady, yet I have 2 with Brady from last year alone (superflex). You tell me who's the more impressive football coach
