We all totally knew this was going to happen during the preseason.
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Pristine Auction.
- How It Started, How It's Going
- Week 16: Rankings & Tiers
- TNF: JAX @ NYJ Game Preview
- Bets From the Group Chat
- It's 12/22. Take it away, Chris Allen.
At this point, I feel we shouldn't be surprised by the headlines, but I'm still shocked. It's mostly because I think about how much has changed over the course of the season. Four months ago feels like a lifetime ago, but our road to the playoffs started with some offseason narratives that just look silly now.
So, when I saw a couple of news items, I decided to revisit what we thought back in August. Of course, we're supposed to change our opinions as we get new information. But you would have laughed if I told you we'd end up here back then.
🐴 Pre-Season Take: The Colts Will Win the AFC South
As training camps started, Indianapolis was the odds-on favorite to take over the division. Matt Ryan was set to take over for Carson Wentz, key pieces along the offensive line were due back from injury, and Michael Pittman was seen as a clear breakout candidate. With Jonathan Taylor looking to defend his rushing title, you couldn't ask for a better setup for a team one win away from the playoffs last year. At least, that's what we thought.
And now HC Jeff Saturday has made the announcement official: QB Nick Foles will start Monday night vs. the Chargers.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)
Dec 21, 2022
Ryan now hits the bench for the second time this season by two different coaches. After suffering another historic loss, Indianapolis turns to Nick Foles to close out the year. With Taylor already on IR, catastrophic doesn't even begin to describe the vibes at Lucas Oil Stadium. Regardless, how we got here is just as surprising as the news itself.
We billed the Colts as a team with a strong offensive line that would enable Ryan to be efficient. But he's taken a beating this year. That once-vaunted Colts' offensive line is 27th in adjusted line yards and dead last in pass block win rate.
Ryan had as many multi-TD games (4) as multi-INT, and his future (career, even) looks uncertain. But Foles could at least keep the ship afloat in Week 16 against the Chargers.
Michael Pittman Jr., leading the team in targets (35), is the only trustworthy pass-catching option against the Chargers. But the QB change also affects Zack Moss. He assumed most of Taylor's workload against Minnesota, and his projected volume puts him in high-end RB3 consideration. If you got him off waivers, he's worth a start over players like D'Onta Foreman and Brian Robinson, per our consensus rankings.
🤪 Pre-Season Take: Drew Lock Is The Better Fantasy QB
The Denver side of the Russell Wilson trade will be fascinating to follow over the offseason. But the Seattle fallout was equally captivating six months ago.
Veteran Geno Smith was set to battle Drew Lock entering his third year. Lock's downfield aggression and scrambling ability made him more appealing to fantasy managers. The thought was that his upside could keep the values of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett afloat. So we wrote Geno off, and he didn't write back.
.@GenoSmith3's been doing it all year long.
Pro Bowl Bound he goes. ➡️
📺 next up: #SEAvsKC on FOX
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks)
Dec 22, 2022
Smith has been everything the Seahawks needed him to be. Even as their playoff hopes fade, he's 10th in EPA per play and first (yes, first) in CPOE.
His play has given the Seahawks a chance to evaluate their young talent (Kenneth Walker III ✅, Abraham Lucas ✅, Charles Cross ✅) while supporting two top-12 WRs (Lockett WR8, Metcalf WR12). We've also seen Seattle's depth pieces, like Marquise Goodwin, step up in meaningful ways.
Goodwin will look to take over part of Lockett's role in his absence. Over the last month, he's run 62.5% of his routes from the slot and matched Lockett in end-zone targets. Plus, we've seen interior receivers perform well against the Chiefs in the past. With Walker (along with Noah Fant) still missing practice, the veteran WR becomes a strong flex option in Week 16."
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Going with your gut can only get you so far. Use our industry-leading rankings to gain an edge on your leaguemates. Need help? Don't worry, Dwain has you covered.
Running Back
🥈 Tier 2 – Dalvin Cook
Cook had a rough stretch of games from Week 11 to 14, but his underlying utilization remained strong. In Week 15, he got things going again with the No. 2 RB fantasy output of 29 points.
Cook is second in the NFL in RB snap share (75%), third in rush share (72%), and fifth in route participation (57%). And for all of the Vikings' shortcomings, they are a top-ten offense in non-overtime plays and convert 24% of their possessions into TDs – the 11th most.
This weekend, Cook lands a soft matchup against the Giants, who allow a ridiculous 154 yards per game on the ground in non-overtime play. New York is the fifth-worst graded PFF run defense (46.4), and the matchup is one of only three games with a total of 48 or higher.
Cook is a top-six RB and a SMASH play.
🥉 Tier 3 – Isiah Pacheco
Pacheco disappointed fantasy managers in a great matchup thanks to a heroic effort from the Texans, who flipped the game script on its head. However, we get another chance for the rookie to boom in a great spot against the second-worst run defense, who allow 156 yards per game in non-overtime play.
There is room for Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon to shine – they play different roles.
The Rutgers product remains the primary early-down option, averaging 15.8 rushing attempts per game since Week 10.
Pacheco is once again in a SMASH spot as a mid-range RB2 with RB1 upside.
Wide Receiver
🥇 Tier 1 – DK Metcalf
Metcalf has a career-high 27% target share and averages 10.3 targets over the last four contests. He ranks as the No. 12 WR in fantasy, with 14.5 points per game, but that average is up to 19.3 points with his recent surge in targets.
The fourth-year WR ranks No. 2 in endzone target share (49%) yet only has six receiving TDs, so there is room for more production. This weekend, he could see additional looks with Tyler Lockett out in a matchup where the Seahawks are 9.5-point underdogs against the Chiefs.
Kansas City allows the ninth-most yards per game (256) and the most TDs (2.1) through the air in non-overtime play.
Metcalf ranks as the WR7 and is a SMASH play this weekend.
🥉 Tier 3 – JuJu Smith-Schuster
Smith-Schuster averages a juicy 19.0 points over his last six healthy games with a 22% target share. That isn’t an enormous target share, but the Chiefs rank No. 4 in dropbacks in non-overtime play and rank above the NFL average in pass rate across trailing (+4), close (+9), and leading (+12) game scripts.
Of course, volume isn’t the only positive about this offense; Kansas City converts the second-most drives into TDs (33%) in the NFL.
This weekend, they face a Seahawks defense with a bottom-ten PFF coverage grade, and the Chiefs carry the No. 1 team total on the slate.
Smith-Schuster is a mid-range WR2 with WR1 upside.
🥉 Tier 3 – DJ Moore
Moore registered a 30%-plus target share in two of Sam Darnold’s first three starts. In a passing offense as bad as the Panthers’, dominating targets is key, and Moore’s fantasy finishes echo that sentiment. In games with a 30%-plus target share, he averages 18.5 points.
In Week 16, the Panthers get the Lions, who offer the third-worst PFF coverage grade (48.3). Opponents average the third-most receiving yards (284) in non-overtime games against Detroit.
The fifth-year WR is always a bust risk, but he has top-12 WR upside when he hits. Consider Moore a low-end boom-bust WR2 against the Lions.
😥 We lost another legend yesterday. Watching the "Immaculate Reception" still gives me chills.
👮♂️ Chiefs fan involved in a bank robbery?!? This story gets wilder as you read it.
👽 There are mobile quarterbacks, and then there's Josh Allen. Please just stay healthy.
👾 What's happening with Eli and the Giants? Something strange going on here...
🤓 5 picks that will make you look smart around your family. At least partially...
😫 You gotta love coaches like Ron Rivera. It must be dusty in here.
💰 Bad weather means increased rostership for RBs in DFS. Find out how to pivot.
👀 Rob Gronkowski with a cryptic tweet. Is a return imminent?
🎨 A pixelated recap of Chandler Jones' revenge on the Patriots. Just a brutal stiff arm.
🔬 WR2 Where Art Thou? He should be on the bench.
☃️ Jaguars +2 at Jets – 37.5 total
This matchup features two teams trending in opposite directions. The Jets are currently sitting at 7-7, and while they currently have a one-game lead over the Jaguars in the standings, Jacksonville is the team with all the momentum. They managed to secure an upset over the Cowboys in Week 15, and they now have a 44% chance to qualify for the postseason. The Jets have dipped to just 20% to make the postseason after losing three straight games.
The big difference is that the Jaguars are very much alive to win the AFC South. The Titans are currently just one game ahead of the Jaguars in the standings, but those two teams will meet again in Week 18. The Jaguars won their first head-to-head matchup this season, so Jacksonville controls its own destiny to make the postseason. If they can win their final three games, they will head to the playoffs.
With the way Trevor Lawrence is playing at the moment, I wouldn’t bet against Jacksonville actually pulling it off. The former No. 1 overall pick stumbled a bit out of the gates, but he has really hit his stride in recent weeks. He has at least 318 passing yards and three touchdowns in three of his past four games, and he’s averaged 8.59 adjusted yards per attempt over his past six contests. He’s racked up 15 total touchdowns over that span – 14 passing and one rushing – along with just one interception.
On the other side, the Jets have major issues at quarterback. Zach Wilson returned to the lineup in Week 15 following a brief hiatus, and he didn’t look particularly improved.
His overall numbers were fine – 317 passing yards, two touchdowns, and one interception – but he continued to miss throws that an NFL-caliber quarterback has to make. Pro Football Focus credited him with a 59.2 passing grade against the Lions, and while that was a slight upgrade from his season-long numbers, it still makes him one of the worst starters in football.
Fortunately, the Jets do have a really strong defense. They rank in the top four in both yards and points per game allowed, and they’re sixth in defensive DVOA. They held a potent Lions offense to just 20 points last week, and seven of them came on a punt return.
That said, it remains to be seen if that will matter against Jacksonville. The Cowboys have had an even better defense than the Jets this season, and the Jaguars just hung 40 points on them. If the Jets can’t slow down the Jaguars, they’ve shown no ability to put points on the board with Wilson under center.
Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what Geoff came up with for this week...All odds via BetMGM
Speed can be a huge factor in betting player props. When one side of a line gets heavily bet, Sportsbooks often change the line to try and generate action on the other side. So if everyone is taking the over on a 249.5-yard player prop, the book may raise that line by a few yards (or more) to generate action on the under and balance out their exposure.
This is why when we see a line that goes up early that we like (or think we have a significant edge on) we want to bet it fast before more people come to that same realization and the line potentially moves.
Below I’ve outlined a couple of props for this week that look like good early-week targets.
🎄 Zonovan Knight Under 59.5 Rushing Yards -115
Knight has taken over as the early down grinder for the Jets but still shares time with Michael Carter, who has played on over 50% of the snaps two weeks running. After a 13-carry, 26-yard performance against Detroit, there are legitimate concerns that Knight will take a step back this week and the Jets will cede more work to Carter.
Knight’s projected for a smaller volume role this week in the Fantasy Life projections, which has him going for under 11.0 rush attempts against a Jaguars defense that also held the Cowboys' rush game to under 4.0 yards per carry. Given the matchup and some injury concerns that popped up with Knight last week, this is a line I could see shrinking as we get closer to game time.
🎄 Darius Slayton Over 48.5 Receiving Yards -115
For Saturday, Darius Slayton’s receiving line looks like a great one to jump on early. The Vikings have been pushing teams into pass-heavy game scripts of late, as opposing offenses are averaging 43.3 pass attempts per game against Minnesota since Week 13.
The Fantasy Life Projections see this as a great opportunity for Slayton to see increased usage, as well, as they have him estimated with a target total of 8.3 for the week and a yardage total that’s 32% above his current Over/Under on BetMGM.
For reference, Slayton has averaged just 5.0 targets over the last two weeks, but did average 8.0 targets between Weeks 11 to 13, a three-game stretch in which he cleared 60.0 yards in each game. He’s also cleared his current 48.5-yard total in seven of 10 games this year and has a strong projected edge to do it again in Week 15.
