"You lose 100% of the best ball drafts you don't enter." - Wayne GretzkyâŚ
In todayâs Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:
Is this Giants offense once again doomed to fail?
Watercooler: The Rams and Texans get a trade done
Best Ball Bankroll Management: Professor Pete is in the building
Itâs 5/10. Take it away, Ian HartitzâŚ
Thursday was relatively quiet in the fantasy football world ⌠other than the Giants adding a former Pro Bowl WR to their offense! Cue the purposely misleading old highlight video tweets.
Maybe Allen Robinson (31 in August) still has some gas in the tank, although his most recent one-year stints with the Rams (33-339-3) and Steelers (34-280-0) didnât exactly inspire a ton of confidence. The fit is also peculiar, considering the Giants already employ roughly 147 slot receivers.
Ultimately, itâs more likely than not that A-Rob simply becomes another sad name to the growing list of mediocre or past-their-prime WRs to suit up for the Giants over the past few seasons. With all due respect to No. 6 overall pick Malik Nabers: Thereâs a better-than-decent chance Daniel Jones is once again forced to operate with anyoneâs idea of a bottom-five supporting cast.
We can get an idea of how good a QB's offensive environment is by averaging a team's PFF rushing, receiving, pass blocking and run blocking grades (everything except passing). It's not a picture-perfect formula (what is?), but the results at least match the eye test in New York.
Giants rank in Supporting Cast Rating:
2023: No. 32
2022: No. 21
2021: No. 30
2020: No. 31
2019: No. 23
Whether it was the often mediocre offensive line, unproven and usually meh group of pass-catchers, or even a banged-up and largely past-his-prime Saquon Barkley: It's safe to say Jones has been dealt one of the worst hands of any QB since being drafted with the No. 6 overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft.
Of course, the Giantsâ $160 million franchise QB also hasnât exactly put his best foot forward for more years than not.
Jones EPA per dropback and completion percentage over expected (CPOE):
2023: -0.211 EPA per dropback (No. 44), +0.3% CPOE (No. 21)
2022: +0.114 (No. 14), +2.3% (No. 11)
2021: +0.012 (No. 29), -0.8% (No. 26)
2020: -0.019 (No. 37), -2.2% (No. 36)
2019: -0.021 (No. 34), -1.9% (No. 31)
A potentially improved offensive line (PFFâs reigning 30th-ranked unit can't get much worse) and the aforementioned addition of Nabers (he's really good!) should help, but then again, that's if Jones manages to return to full form following last yearâs season-ending ACL injury (the neck stuff isnât ideal either). Guys like Daniel Jeremiah have even added credence to the idea that Drew Lock could win this starting job.
At the end of the day, this Giants offense has ranked 30th or worse in scoring during three of the last four seasons. Hereâs to hoping Jones â or A-Rob, why the hell not â can ignite a spark and help put a rare smile on the faces of faithful New York-invested fantasy managers.
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đ° ADP deep dive. The price is right on these playersâŚor is it?
đ Check out Matthew Berryâs way-too-early positional ranks! Caleb Williams is HOW high?
đ¤ What are the 2014 NFL Draftâs WRs up to these days? Pete is on the case.
đ Ever wonder what is in an NFL playbook for rookies? Good stuff from Dan.
đ¤ Trade alert! How much help does CJ Stroud need?
đ¨ Breaking news out of Washington. Rough deal for the punter ngl.
đś Underdog draft games are LIVE in Michigan! Great day to be great.
đŤ RB regular-season career touch leaders entering 2024. Thatâs a lot of mileage.
Best ball summer is here, baby.
Of course, simply throwing yourself into the fire isnât maybe the best decision. Itâs important to have a plan for both general draft strategy and perhaps even more importantly: Bankroll management.
Enter: Professor Pete, who is here to offer guidance on how to best manage your best ball portfolio depending on what type of drafter you identify as.
On Wednesday, Underdog Fantasy dropped three new contests, all of them with low-dollar price points:
The Puppy ($5 150 max)
The Chihuahua ($4 25 max)
The Golden ($10 single entry)
Bankroll management and contest selection are both hugely important elements of being a successful fantasy player and are also completely unique to each individual drafter.
Below, I'm going to share my advice on how to think through these decisions so you can get the most enjoyment (and bang for your buck) out of best ball summer as possible.
đ° Determine what your goals are (and your bankroll)
The first thing you need to determine is what your goals are. I would bucket the typical drafter into one of four categories:
Low-stakes edge grinder
Low-stakes best ball enjoyer
Mid- to high-stakes edge grinder
Mid- to high-stakes best ball enjoyer
When I say "edge grinder," I mean a drafter who cares about building the best possible team, is consuming best ball strategy content, staying up to date on news and drafting only in contests that have solid payout structures where their skill can be rewarded.
When I say "best ball enjoyer" I'm speaking more about a casual drafter who just loves drafting and gets entertainment value out of hopping in drafts. They are less concerned with every single strategic angle and micro edge when drafting.
The low-stakes vs. high-stakes element is more straightforward. I consider most contests with an entry fee under $10 as low stakes. I consider contests between $25-$75 as mid-stakes. And then anything over $100 buy-in as a high-stakes contest.
If your goal is simply to have fun and do a couple of practice mock drafts before the start of the season, you can hop in any of the low-stakes contests.
If your goal is to realize the best possible return on your investment (which does entail locking your money up for months because these contests won't pay out until January 2025), then you need to hunt for smaller contests with smoother payouts.
Once you determine what kind of drafter you are and what your bankroll is, you can start shopping around for the right contests.
Please tell me less about it tho
