Will Zach Edey suffer the same fate as Caitlin Clark?
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM.
March Madness: Will tonight live up to the instant classics?
NFL Draft: Is a superstar wide receiver poised for a slide?
The Masters: Bet on experience and recent form.
It’s 4/8. Take it away, Matt LaMarca
Full disclosure — I’m not a huge college basketball guy. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll watch the first two days of games on Thursday and Friday, but my attention tends to wane as the tournament progresses.
But the National Championship? I’m all in, baby. It helps that we’ve had some phenomenal contests during my lifetime. Over the past 16 years, we’ve had three instant classics:
🏴☠️️ Virginia vs. Texas Tech in 2019
Maybe the most forgotten great game in recent college history. Texas Tech ended up erasing a 10-point deficit late in the second half, taking a three-point lead with 22 seconds left. However, De’Andre Hunter buried a 3-pointer for Virginia to force overtime, where the Cavaliers ended up winning by eight.
Hunter was brilliant in that contest, finishing with 27 points and nine boards. Virginia has become painfully boring since then, but at least they gave us a thrilling National Championship a few years ago.
🪶 Kansas vs. Memphis in 2006
Bill Self vs. John Calipari. Two of the best coaches in modern history looking for their first titles.
It looked like Calipari would come out on top, with the team leading by nine points with roughly two minutes to go. However, poor free throw shooting from Memphis opened the door, and Mario Chalmers kicked it off the hinges. He hit a heavily contested 3-pointer to send the game to overtime, where the Jayhawks ultimately prevailed.
This game featured a ton of future NBA players — headlined by Derrick Rose — so it was a truly phenomenal contest.
🐯 Villanova vs. North Carolina in 2016
Kris Jenkins. That’s all that needs to be said.
Jenkins etched his name into history by drilling a game-winning 3-pointer as time expired to win Villanova their second championship.
The only bad thing is that his shot has overlooked the miraculous 3-pointer that Marcus Paige hit just moments prior to tie the game.
Will tonight’s contest live up to any of its predecessors? Only time will tell. Fortunately, Kody Malstrom has a preview to get you fired up for UConn vs. Purdue.
💰 (1) UConn vs. (1) Purdue - Betting Breakdown
Purdue cannot afford to lose out on offensive possessions, especially against UConn’s hyper-efficient offense which wears down their opponents over the full course of forty minutes. Their offensive assault is built on generating high-quality looks at a consistent rate with resounding success as they rank first in AdjO.
UConn’s offense is well balanced with five players averaging double figures in scoring, running a scheme that creates space for their off-ball scorers off of cleverly designed screens across the middle. This is a glaring advantage against Purdue’s defense as we may see UConn abuse whoever Fletcher Loyer is on as an undersized weak defender.
Should Loyer, or anyone on Purdue, struggle to stay with their defender against a constantly revolving offense while dodging screens and chip-offs, then that leaves UConn with a high-quality scoring opportunity with the extra space against their coverage.
This also puts pressure on help-side defenders to decide to either crash toward the shooter or stay on their man.
Even if their jump shots run cold as we have seen throughout the tournament, the Huskies have had no issue keeping possessions alive with their aggression on the boards. With seven players playing meaningful minutes, five Huskies average at least 4.7 rebounds or more this season.
Purdue may lead the nation in Total Rebound Rate, but a majority of their success comes from Edey and his massive frame down low. Clingan counters that, as well as already bringing in extra bodies with their guards being aggressive down low as well. From there, UConn will have the ability to either try and get Edey in foul trouble with a putback or kick it out to an open shooter should the big man already hover above them.
I played UConn at -5.5, but with the current spread of -7, you are better off monitoring the game for a potential live play as this has blown past my last buy spot of -6.
Both Donovan Clingan and Zach Edey play a crucial role in their team’s success, but both will find themselves in aggressive situations with teams potentially targeting them on the defensive end, which could lead to foul trouble.
Should one get in foul trouble early on and have to sit for a prolonged period, then look to play a live wager on the other side.
Whether you got UConn at -5.5 or not on the pregame line, I will also look to add more on them at -4 or lower should they get out to another sluggish start.
The Huskies will generate more scoring consistency in the long run, meaning that they will create more consistent opportunities over the full course of the game while Purdue sputters at times against a defense that can face-guard their off-ball shooters. Capitalize on a potential swing, while also getting UConn at a more favorable number.
EVERYTHING else you need to know for Purdue vs. UConn
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⚾️ The week kicks off with a massive 13-game slate on the diamond. Best bets for Monday’s MLB action.
🤖 The robots can’t get here soon enough. Angel Hernandez does what he does best — punch out a batter in an egregious manner.
✅ Good teams win, great teams cover. It’s safe to say that UConn has been a great team since 2009.
🐓 Down goes Clark! Pre-event favorite South Carolina took down the Women’s NCAA championship game on Sunday night.
😑 Eight is not enough. Denny McCarthy made an insane back nine run but lost in a playoff at the Valero.
🏌️Masters movement. Which players saw their odds shift over the weekend.
🚩 Trouble brewing for Malik Nabers? The top prospect has reportedly had teams asking some tough questions.
✍️ Need more bets? Then check out our FREE Discord where we always provide the plays.
While all eyes will be on college basketball Monday night, don’t forget that we have another huge betting event in The Masters beginning this Thursday. Geoff Ulrich will have a full betting preview out in our Wednesday newsletter, but for today, he’s going through some important betting trends to get you set for the week.
⛳️ 2024 Masters: The Trends Can Be Your Friend
Augusta National is the only course that hosts a major championship every season. That means that course history and experience tend to play a far bigger role than in other majors. The venue plays as a traditional Par 72 – measuring at a lengthy 7,545 yards – and features severe elevation changes throughout the course (tee box to green) and the fastest Bentgrass greens on Tour.
With a venue this unique (and structured) and a field this limited, we have some very viable and sticky trends we can lean on for betting. I went through some of the more important ones below and also used them to help decide on my early-week betting target.
📈 Closing odds of past Masters champions
Three of the past four winners have had closing odds below +2000
Three players have won with closing odds of +4000 or longer over the past decade, but none have been longer than +5000 (Willett 2016 and Matsuyama 2021)
By contrast, four players with closing odds between +900 to +1200 have won this event over the past decade
Despite plenty of shorter-priced winners, the actual betting favorite (player with the shortest closing odds) hasn’t paid off at the Masters in well over a decade. However, golfers with odds of +4000 or bigger have won this event three times over the last decade (Danny Willett 2016, Patrick Reed 2018, and Hideki Matsuyama 2021).
️⛳️ Course experience of Masters champions
The last debutant (first-time Masters starter) to win at Augusta was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979
14 of the previous 15 winners had achieved (at least) a top 30 finish at Augusta in at least one previous Masters start
Eight of the last 11 winners had achieved a top-five finish at Augusta in at least one previous Masters start
As noted above, experience matters. Almost all of the past winners had at least experienced a little success while playing the weekend at Augusta, and the majority of the last 11 winners had finished inside the top five (at least once) in a previous Masters start.
📝 Recent form of Masters winners (results and stats):
Nine of the last 10 winners of the Masters had recorded a top-five finish in one of their previous five professional starts
Four of the last six winners had recorded a T2 or better in one of their previous three professional starts before winning at Augusta
📊 Recent statistical form of the last three winners (in their final four starts before Augusta):
Each of the last three winners had accomplished the following over their final four professional starts
Gained 2.0 strokes or more on approach in multiple starts
Gained 2.0 strokes or more around the green in at least one start
Gained 1.0 stroke or more putting in at least one start
Recent form is still the most important thing to focus on this week. The lead-up for nearly all of the recent Masters winners has been above average to stellar with many grabbing wins or multiple high finishes in their most recent outings. Statistically, we can see that while strokes gained approach stats are most worth monitoring, past winners have almost always spiked in around-the-green play heading into Augusta.
Click for Geoff’s Early Week Masters Bet
