Cat people are in shambles right meow…
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Underdog:
NHL Game 7: Can the Oilers hit the gusher?
PGA Rocket Mortgage: Course preview and player spotlight.
MLB Monday: Back the Reds vs. the Pirates.
It’s 6/24. Take it away, Geoff Ulrich…
10 days ago, on June 13th, the Florida Panthers beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-3 and took a 3-0 series lead in the Stanley Cup Finals. After that game, their odds to win the series sat at -3000 (yes, three zeroes), while the Oilers were at +1300.
To quote Michael Scott: “Well, well, well… How the turntables…”
Down 3-0, the Oilers remained steady in their belief and in head coach Kris Knoblauch, who stated that they were playing the Panthers evenly and that, eventually, the goals would start dropping. As outlandish as it sounded then, he was right.
Edmonton enters tonight having outscored Florida 18-5 over the last three games and on the verge of the “reverse sweep.” They’ve done it by dominating on special teams and employing a counter-attacking style that has given 35-year-old Sergei Bobrovsky fits. He enters with a 0.793 SV% over his last three games and was also reportedly not at practice on Sunday for Florida.
Bobrovsky is expected to play (there has been no word on an injury), but more drastic lineup moves from Florida are expected, some of which have an air of desperation about them.
Going against popular wisdom has paid off in this series, but these are also uncharted waters we are entering. Florida, once up 3-0 and a seeming lock to secure the franchise’s first Stanley Cup, is now on the verge of an epic collapse. Meanwhile, Edmonton, once left for dead, is now one game away from ending Canada’s 31-year Stanley Cup drought.
With that in mind, here’s why I think you keep playing the Oilers in Game 7…
💧 Edmonton Oilers Moneyline (-108; DraftKings)
It’s clear the Oilers didn’t deserve to be down 3-0 to start the series, and now that they’ve evened things up, it’s hard to figure out how the Panthers will gain back momentum. Florida has out-chanced Edmonton 23-16 in High Danger Scoring Opportunities over the last three games but has been completely stymied by Stuart Skinner and the Oilers’ special teams, who have limited the Panthers to just one power-play goal in the series (out of 20 chances).
The Panthers are making some adjustments for Game 7 as they’ll move normally clutch winger Carter Verhaeghe from the top unit power play and replace him with Vladimir Tarasenko. Tarasenko has been solid, but it remains to be seen how he’ll handle being thrust into a starring role at such a critical juncture.
The moneyline on Florida has moved lower before puck drop in each of the last three games. However, we are finally starting to see some “sharp action” towards Edmonton before Game 7, with the Oilers taking in the majority of the bets and handle on DraftKings.
Being the contrarian in this series has paid off, but I see tonight more as a spot where the market is cutting its losses on Florida. The fact is, the Oilers have been outstanding in their last three starts, and with the Panthers now attempting some large-scale lineup changes, it’s not a time to go against the comeback kids. As long as the line stays at -110 or better, I see the Oilers as the correct side once again for Game 7.
📉 2-Way Same Game Parlay: (+110; bet365)
First Period Under 1.5 Goals (-150; bet365)
Aaron Ekblad Under 0.5 points (-310; bet365)
The under on 5.5 goals has already been steamed way down to -155. It’s a number I‘m not comfortable playing given how weak Florida’s goaltending has been and the potential for sustained late-game, empty-net goal scenarios.
An alternative option, and a way to neutralize the empty net, is to target the first period under instead, a bet that has hit in five of the first six games. The first-period under has also been bet down for Game 7, but using it as part of a smaller, same-game parlay has some appeal.
Aaron Ekblad’s under on 0.5 points (-310; bet365) has short odds but also correlates well with our first period under. Outside of a Game 2 goal, Ekblad has been kept off the scoresheet against the Oilers and also missed practice on Sunday with a potential injury. He’ll likely play, but the Panthers may choose to limit his power-play exposure.
Regardless, when we combine these two props, it bumps the -150 odds from the first-period play up to +110, giving us a much better payout. We’re taking a little more risk, but given Ekblad’s performance to date, his under looks worth adding on to get us to that better number for Game 7.
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⛳ The PGA Tour heads to Detroit for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Your early-week betting research starts here.
📈 Teams down 3-0 have not fared well across any sport. Edmonton can boost their win percentage tonight.
💰 An $0.85 cent (yes, cents) parlay can turn into $23k with an Oilers win. Maybe Tua Tagovailoa is elite?
👮 Even protestors can’t stop Scottie Scheffler from winning. At least this time, someone else left in bracelets.
⛳ Cameron Young didn’t win, but he did make history. His third-round 59 was the 13th sub-60 round recorded on the PGA.
🚗 Rejoice alternative sports fans, Car Jitsu is now legal to bet on in New Jersey. If they fight in a Tesla, does Elon Musk get royalties?
🐎 The CJ Stroud bandwagon is getting full. At least one sportsbook has been taking a lot of Texans action.
🏈 Thor Nystrom’s College Football Power Rankings are live! See which teams are trending up for 2024.
Believe it or not, we’re nearly halfway through the marathon that is the MLB regular season. Most teams have played around 80 games, and we’re approximately three weeks away from the All-Star break. Matt LaMarca breaks down his favorite target for Monday’s 12-game slate.
⚾ Cincinnati Reds F5 ML vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-118; FanDuel)
The Pirates are no longer cellar dwellers in the NL Central, largely due to their exciting young pitching staff. Paul Skenes and Jared Jones are already among the best pitchers in baseball, which gives Pirates’ fans their first taste of optimism in years.
However, this team still has some major issues. The biggest remains their inability to hit right-handed pitching. They’re 29th in wRC+ in that split this season, with only the lowly White Sox faring worse.
The team also can’t pitch Skenes or Jones in every contest. They’ll send Bailey Falter to the mound on Monday, and he’s a prime regression candidate moving forward. His xERA is nearly 1.5 runs higher than his actual mark (5.12 vs. 3.74), and he’s thrived due to an unsustainable .242 BABIP. Falter doesn’t excel from a Statcast perspective, so it’s hard to imagine his batted-ball success continuing.
The Reds’ offense is in far better shape on Monday, with the team ranking 16th in wRC+ vs. southpaws. They’ll also have the edge on the bump, with Carson Spiers (3.20 xERA; 3.67 xERA) grading out as the superior pitcher basically across the board. Getting them at -118 for the first five innings stands out as an excellent value.
