In the words of Larry David, “You wait. YOU. WAIT.”
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Prop Drop:
- Navigating +2.5: “Patience,” but in an Axl Rose voice.
- Player Props! Taysom Hill… once again…
- A Group Chat Parlay: Da Bears.
- The sharps: What they’re betting this week.
- SNF Betting: Offense. Offense everywhere.
- It’s 11/5: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…
In the Thursday Betting Life Newsletter, I highlighted the optimal ways to bet short underdogs.
For teams getting between +0.5 and +2.5 points, the moneyline has historically been more profitable than the spread. Also, for teams between +1.5 and +2.5, a great option is six-point teasers.
One thing I didn’t discuss was how to navigate the pivotal number of +2.5.
I’ll do that now, using a few games from Week 9 as jumping-off points.
⚔️ Buccaneers +2.5 at Texans
The Buccaneers opened as +2.5 underdogs in the lookahead market and the early market — and the spread stayed at that number for most of the week until Saturday, when it hit +3 (PointsBet), where I logged it in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.
In my Wednesday best bets article (written before we got injury reports for the teams playing this weekend) I had this line projected at +2 and said this about the Buccaneers: “I will probably bet this if it gets to +3. If it doesn’t, I’ll consider teasing the Buccaneers up to +8.5.”
Why wait for +3?
I didn’t see enough projection value at +2.5 to justify a bet. And, more importantly, I saw sufficient pragmatic value at +3 — since that’s a key NFL number — to justify waiting to see if the market moved there.
But what happens if the market stays at +2.5? Either I don’t make a bet — or I bet the moneyline or include the Buccaneers in a teaser.
And what happens if the market moves against me? What if the spread moves down to +2 or even +1.5? At those numbers, the Buccaneers can still be teased through the key numbers of +3 and +7, so little is lost.
Takeaway: At +2.5, it’s often worth waiting to see how the market develops, because the upside of +3 far outweighs the downside of +2 and +1.5.
🐬 Dolphins +2.5 vs. Chiefs, Bills +2.5 at Bengals
Despite what I just said — that it’s often worth waiting at +2.5 to see if the line moves to +3 — I have a personal exception to that guideline.
If my projection shows value at +2.5 and/or if I strongly believe that the line will close below +2.5 and has a real chance to hit +1 — where it’s far less attractive in a teaser — then I might opt to tease an underdog early in the week, just to be sure that I don’t miss out on it in case the number rapidly moves.
And that’s why on Monday I teased the Dolphins and Bills from +2.5 to +8.5.
Given that they both play in spotlight games, I thought they might attract extra attention early, especially since the Dolphins departed for Germany on Monday and the Bills were -1.5 favorites in the look-ahead market.
As of writing (3:30 pm ET on Saturday), the Dolphins are +2 and the Bills are +2.5 at Circa, which I consider to be a sharper sportsbook — but they both hit +1 earlier in the week, so at least my general thesis (that the Dolphins and Bills could see their lines drop) was directionally correct.
I might ultimately be wrong in backing the Dolphins and Bills, but that’s the explanation of what I considered when teasing them early in the week instead of waiting for the +3.
Takeaway: If you see significant value at +2.5 and/or expect the line to move down and maybe reach +1, then you might want to bet the underdog right away.
For everything you need for Week 9 — including our inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates — you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:
Every week, Matthew Freedman writes an article with five of his favorite player props. Here are a couple of them, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.
⬆️ Taysom Hill Over 16.5 Rushing Yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Projection: 22.4
- Cutoff: 19.5
I have successfully bet the over on Hill’s rushing yardage prop for the past two weeks, and I still think it’s too low given Hill’s consistent workload and production.
Since last year — when OC Pete Carmichael assumed playcalling duties after the departure of HC Sean Payton — Hill has played in 24 games, all of them as a non-QB offensive weapon. In those games, he has averaged 5.6 carries for 32.4 yards with medians of five carries and 20 yards.
Hill is technically classified as a QB by the Saints, and among all QBs with at least 40 “plays” (passes, sacks, and carries) he is No. 1 in composite EPA and CPOE (+0.231, per RBs Don’t Matter).
Whenever the Saints have put the ball in Hill’s hands, they have been explosive (5.8 yards per carry, 14.5 AY/A since last year), so I expect them to continue to give him opportunities, especially as a runner.
Over the past two weeks, the team has made a concerted effort to get Hill the ball, resulting in a 20% designed rush rate (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
I expect him to have a comparable run rate this week.
⬇️ T.J. Hockenson Under 48.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel)
- Projection: 43.1
- Cutoff: 45.5
From the perspective of the point spread, I have the dropoff from Kirk Cousins (Achilles, IR) to Jaren Hall as -6.4 points.
Without Cousins (and with Hall), the Vikings might be the worst team in the league.
Here’s what I said about Hall in my preseason Vikings betting preview:
“Hall is a dual-threat fifth-round rookie with unimpressive size (6-foot and 207 pounds), advanced age (25 years old) and solid production (5,754 yards, 51 TDs passing; 148-657-6 rushing in two starting seasons).”
Hall is undersized and a scrambler, which means he’s less likely than the average QB to stay in the pocket and pass when he feels pressure, which translates into fewer target opportunities for the Vikings pass catchers.
Hall is old — and generally the younger a QB is when he enters the league, the better. And Hall is a late-round rookie, which is a negative on its own, and it’s rare for a Day 3 QB to have success if he started just two seasons in college.
With Hall, the offense could struggle mightily to move the ball through the air.
SEE THE REST OF FREEDMAN’S PROPS!
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Welcome to Week 9 of Bets from the Group Chat. This is where I (Geoff Ulrich) elicit as much information as possible from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their bets for this week.
If you’re tailing our group parlays from this segment, we’re now 1-2 (+3.43 units) after last week, when the Steelers and Cam Akers receiving yards were losers.
You can find a bigger overall recap using the link at the bottom, but for now, let’s get right into the Week 9 plays.
💰 Group Chat Parlay
🐻 Mark Drumheller Likes: Bears +8.5 (-110, BetMGM)
- Play to +8.5 (-120)
The Bears have risen to +8.5 from +5.0 where this game opened. Their offense is ugly but chasing this much steam with the Saints also seems like a recipe for disaster.
Derek Carr is also 8-24-2 ATS for his career when he comes into a game as a favorite of 3.0 points or more. Taking the Bears — whose number has shot up by 3.0 points — just off that trend alone seems warranted.
⚜️ Freedman & LaMarca Like: Taysom Hill 15+ Rushing Yards (Parlay w/ Bears +8.5, +240 BetMGM)
- Play to 18.5 (-110)
- Aggregate projection: 22.4 rush yards
Hill has a 20% designed rush rate over his last two games. As Freedman noted in his prop article this week, the Saints OC Pete Carmichael is bullish on getting Hill involved.
Let’s double-dip from this game. The Saints seem likely to use Hill lots again, either to help salt the game away or to provide a spark if Derek Carr struggles.
🦅 Geoff Ulrich Likes: D’Andre Swift over 13.5 rush attempts (-105, BetMGM)
- Play to 13.5 (-120)
- Aggregate projection: 14.4 attempts
Swift has gone over 13.5 attempts in four of his last five games. Last year, the Eagles ran Miles Sanders 18 and 21 times in two games against Dallas, and this week we also have a situation where backup Kenneth Gainwell is in the doghouse.
Swift is projected for over 14 carries this week on Fantasy Life. I think there’s a good chance he will go over this mark quite easily in Week 9.
🤝 Putting it all together: +549, BetMGM
📈 Week 9 Ladder Plays
Ladder bets are where you spread your unit allocation over different milestones.
The idea is to access bigger payouts while maintaining some exposure to the higher probability outcome lines as well.
The Week 9 ladder targets are below.
📈 Jonathan Mingo, WR - Panthers (BetMGM)
- 50+ rec yards (+168) - play to +150
- 75+ rec yards (+520) - play to +500
- 100+ rec yards (+920) - play to +900
I’ve been high on Mingo since he landed in Carolina. He was a great yards after-the-catch (yac) accumulator in college (16.5 ypc) and landed in a weak WR room.
He hasn’t broken out yet but it’s clear the Panthers want him to develop. He’s averaged a 96% route rate over his last two games, with a 17% (or better) target share in two of his last three starts.
The Colts are 26th in yards per pass attempt against and have allowed the ninth-most yards to opposing WRs. Mingo went for 50+ yards last week and plays a weaker secondary that has allowed four WRs (in 8 games) to go for over 100 yards.
🔙 Thursday Night Football Redux: The Steelers won again… and they still look like a bad team.
💰 Need more picks & plays? We’re up 19.4 units in the last 30 days, and have over 40 FREE bets waiting for you.
🏋️♂️ The Browns PR person has the toughest job in the world: “Of course, I’ve also never felt guilty about anything.”
👷♂️ This is an actual sports-like competition. Somewhere in the world, some nerd has a spreadsheet of forklift projections.
📺 Last minute bets, anyone? We’ve got you covered before kickoff.
📊 Taking a look at the smart kid’s homework. Where sharps are betting for Week 9.
⌚️ Sunday Night Football: Playoff. Leverage.
You can access everything you need for Bills vs. Bengals in our Game Hub, including projection guidance, bets, and more. Looking for a peek behind the curtain? We’ve got you covered.
Sunday Night Football features a surging Bengals team hosting a slumping Bills squad. Can the Bengals keep their three-game winning streak rolling, or will the Bills bounce back? Matt LaMarca is here to break it down and highlight some of his favorite bets for the game…
🏆 Best Bet: Bengals -1.5 (-115, FanDuel)
I’m slightly conflicted about this game. I think the Bills remain extremely talented, and they could flip the switch at any moment. However, without Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White, their defense is not equipped to handle the Bengals offense.
With Joe Burrow returning to form against the 49ers, I think there’s still time to get back on the Bengals bandwagon. Burrow is 20-12 ATS for his career as an underdog or favorite of less than a field goal, good for a +19.9% return on investment. The Bengals were also the most profitable ATS team over the previous two seasons, going 27-13 (including playoffs).
🛩️ Top Prop: Dalton Kincaid Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-135, DraftKings)
With Dawson Knox sidelined, the sky is the limit for the talented rookie as the top tight end in Buffalo. He’s coming off a season-high 85% route rate in Week 8, and he’s finished with at least five receptions and 65 yards in back-to-back games.
The matchup is also a good one, with the Bengals ranking dead last in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends this season.
We have Kincaid projected for closer to 45 yards, and I’m happy to play the over on Kincaid’s receiving prop up to that number.
🔥 Climb the Ladder: James Cook (BetMGM)
- 50+ RuYds (+100)
- 75+ RuYds (+350)
- 100+ RuYds (+725)
If you’re unfamiliar with ladder betting, I’d highly recommend checking out Geoff Ulrich’s primer from this offseason. You’re looking to take a single player to hit various statistical thresholds, with each “rung” earning a bigger payout.
For SNF, I’m looking to climb the ladder with Cook. His utilization has been solid as the Bills’ clear No.1 back, and the Bengals have been exploitable against the run this season. They’re merely 23rd in EPA/rush and 22nd in rushing Success Rate defensively.
Cook also boasts blazing speed, so he can turn any carry into a huge gain. We haven’t seen that yet this season — his longest carry is just 36 yards — but he’s a home-run hitter. He doesn’t necessarily need 20+ carries to get to 100 yards, so I think he’s a strong ladder candidate in this spot.
🤝 Same-Game Parlay (+1100, BetMGM)
- Bengals -2.5
- Over 50.5
- Burrow 3+ PaTDs
- Ja’Marr Chase ATD
- Cook 50+ RuYds
This feels like a lot for just a +1100 payout, but I think these bets all correlate together extremely well. Burrow and Chase correlate with both the Bengals -2.5 and over 50.5 points, so it’s not surprising that we’re not getting tremendous odds there.
Cook is the only leg that doesn’t fit like a glove, but I think 50+ yards is very reasonable given everything mentioned above. He’s hit this threshold in five of his past seven games, including each of his past three.
