"Weather nearly prevented the Jaguars from recording 251 yards of offense in the first half." - John Daigle
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Sirius XM:
- TNF Recap: Week 17 Options & '23 Draft Targets
- The Walkthrough: Burrow vs Belichick
- JMToWin's Week 16 DFS Tips
- Geoff's Bets: Commanders, Broncos
- Matthew Berry's Love Hate for Week 16
- Linda's Kickin' It: Top kicker plays
- It's 12/22. Take it away, Chris Allen
After all the hand-wringing about the weather, it didn't matter. The rain couldn't hide the gap between Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence, no more so than the Jets coaching staff. Wilson looked on from the sideline as Chris Strevler led two promising drives to no avail. The Jets have some soul-searching to do while Jacksonville contemplates football in January.
But before we talk about the playoffs, we've got our championships to win. After last night, we may have to take a longer look at a couple of players before keeping them in our starting lineup. I'm excited about both for next season but let's get through next week first.
🚀 Trevor Lawrence in the Top 10?
I won't say the hype has gone overboard with Lawrence. Sure, he's closing out the fantasy season in the Top 10, and he (likely) joins Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow as the only QBs with a top-12 fantasy finish against the Jets. But the resounding sigh of relief from fans isn't unwarranted. Think about where he was after last year.
Cumulative EPA on dropbacks for the 2021 QB class (via TruMedia)
The negative effect Urban Meyer had on Trevor Lawrence (and the Jags) is hard to overstate.
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_)
Dec 20, 2022
One of Lawrence's gifts is his ability to avoid sacks. He took one (albeit resulting in a turnover) against a team with a top-10 pass rush win rate while down his starting left tackle. I can easily see Lawrence inside the top 10 ranks for next year, given the team's current and future personnel. But let's look at Week 17.
The Jaguars travel to Houston for the final week of the fantasy playoffs. Historically, we'd make sure to grab any piece of an offense facing the Texans, but let's give credit to Lovie Smith. Houston stymied Patrick Mahomes for the better part of a half and nearly pulled off the upset against the Cowboys. I'm not expecting another rushing performance like last night, but Lawrence should remain in the top-12 discussion after a strong Thursday night outing.
😕 Garrett Wilson Vibes Check
"Process over results" is what I keep telling myself when looking at the Jets' offense. New York drafted Zach Wilson and did what any reasonable franchise would (should) do. They built around him. Garrett Wilson was the second early-round receiver selected to go with Wilson. And it looks like the Jets hit on another prospect.
Garrett Wilson: 90.1 REC Grade vs man coverage this season
5th highest among all WRs✈️
— PFF College (@PFF_College)
Dec 22, 2022
But last night was a tough scene. The box score says the rookie was the team's top target, but it sure didn't feel that way with only 30 yards. And we got a foot fumble to go with his meager fantasy output. The good vibes for Wilson seem to be fading as the Jets struggle with continuity at the most important position. The middle rounds are a likely landing spot for Wilson in '23 drafts, but he could cap off this season with a bang to secure a higher spot.
The Jets take on Seattle at Lumen Field in Week 17. Seattle may be third in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs, but let's look at their last few opponents.
- 49ers: No Deebo Samuel. Brock Purdy's second start. George Kittle runs wild.
- Panthers: DJ Moore injures his ankle run blocking. Three targets.
- Rams: Tutu Atwell was the team's leading receiver.
However, Davante Adams (W12, 11-74-0) and Chris Godwin (W10, 8-71-1) are WR1s for their respective teams with positive results. It's in the range of outcomes for Wilson to do the same. The Jets' QB situation will be a storyline from now until next September. But, in the meantime, I'm willing to bet on talent to overcome the situation in a plus matchup.
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The reason for the season—fantasy tips, gifts, and peace of mind:
The Walkthrough is the most comprehensive matchups column in the fantasy space. Every Friday, Rotoworld's Pat Kerrane outlines all the critical fantasy football context for each and every game.
If Joe Burrow is decently protected this week, he should be able to handle the Patriots' secondary.
Burrow has been excellent this season, ranking seventh in EPA per play and sixth in success rate. And Burrow's season is all the more impressive when considering that the Bengals' offense is designed to run through his arm. Burrow can handle a lot more passing volume than the average quarterback. He ranks fifth in EPA per game behind only Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Tua Tagovailoa. And although he's playing in very cold New England weather, winds are not expected to be a significant issue. With that in mind, both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are very strong plays this week.
Chase will undoubtedly see a lot of defensive attention, but that is nothing new for the superstar receiver. Chase just saw double coverage on 48% of his routes against the Buccaneers. That absurdly high rate actually marked his lowest rate of the last three weeks; he had a 54% double coverage rate against the Browns and a 61% rate against the Chiefs.
Chase has averaged 12 targets over the last three games, so it's hard to imagine that Bill Belichick can effectively take him away. Chase has seen double coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, yet he is still getting open and an 87th-percentile rate. Chase is simply too good not to be considered an elite fantasy option this week.
After logging 95% route participation against the Buccaneers, Higgins looks like a trustworthy WR2. And with Chase likely to draw coverage throughout this game, Higgins is well-positioned to deliver some big plays this week. His 11.2 aDOT is the deepest on the team, giving him access to big plays downfield.
JMToWin is a founder/developer of One Week Season, where we focus not only on preparing you for each unique slate, but also on teaching you the strategies and theories behind winning DFS play. Our team has millions of dollars in net DFS profit, and each week we strive to build the OWS Fam into a leaderboard-crashing unit. Become a part of the OWS Fam with OWS Free!
Happy Holidays, Fantasy Fam!!!
Here are four key angles for this Christmas Eve slate — wrapped up for your enjoyment.
💸 Christmas On a Budget
When doing Christmas on a budget (or on a "salary cap"), it's important to get the most bang for your buck.
Enter the Seattle offense, which A) will likely be chasing points this week against Kansas City (only three teams are allowing more points per game than Seattle; no team is scoring more points per game than Kansas City), and B) will be without Tyler Lockett.
While Lockett's absence elevates DK Metcalf's ceiling, the most exciting piece on Seattle may actually be Marquise Goodwin. Goodwin went 4-67-2 on five targets when Metcalf got injured early in Week 7 — and that was a game the Seahawks dominated on the ground, with Geno Smith throwing for only 210 yards on his second-fewest attempts of the season.
💭 It's The Thought That Counts
When we say "It's the thought that counts," we are typically referring to a gift that may not have been obvious at first, but that was ultimately "just the right item" for the situation at hand.
With the Atlanta Falcons sporting a paltry 14.5-point implied team total this week, it's unlikely we see a ton of attention on their offense. One bright spot has stood out for the Falcons, Drake London.
London has seen 23 targets across the Falcons' last two games, in spite of the Falcons throwing the ball only 50 combined times (a 46% target rate!!!).
The Titans and 49ers are the only teams that face a higher opponent pass-play rate than Baltimore. While we know that this Falcons offense will want to keep the ball on the ground, this is nevertheless a spot that should ultimately lead to more pass attempts than normal. London is a strong candidate for double-digit looks, and could prove to be that special gift that makes all the difference when it's all said and done.
🪀 The Toy That Everyone Wants
Derrick Henry is set to take on a Houston Texans defense that he has notoriously dominated over the years, and is sure to be one of the most popular players on this Christmas weekend slate. "Overhyped?" Maybe. But if we hop in our time machine, we'll find that Henry's worst game against the Texans in his last four was 211 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
Over his last four starts against Houston, Henry is averaging 223 rushing yards and 2.25 touchdowns, with zero games in this stretch below two touchdowns scored. Did The Derrick Henry Factory order enough yards and touchdowns this weekend to meet demand? That's the question — and the answer will largely shape this slate. I'll start every roster this week with a decision on whether or not I'm playing Henry — and on rosters where I don't play him, I'll aim to account for this decision throughout the rest of my build.
🎄 The Grinch
If you choose to NOT play Henry, how do you "account for this"?
One way is to say, "We know the Texans will throw everything they can at Henry and try to force Malik Willis to win this game through the air." It didn't work for them last time (Week 7: Henry went 219-2 on 32 carries in a 17-10 win, while Willis threw the ball only 10 times for 55 yards), but who's to say it won't work this time?
Yes, Henry has gone for at least 200 yards and two touchdowns in four consecutive games against the Texans…but in the game preceding this streak, Houston held him to 86 yards and no scores. If that happens this week, and the Texans are able to force Tennessee to the air, the Houston DST could Grinch-ily take away points from Henry while adding points to your own bottom line.
🐰 CJ Uzomah reenacts A Christmas Story before TNF. The bunny suit works for him!
🛵 Scooters for the Buccaneers! Mike Evans is a real one for this.
📉 The betting market doesn't believe in Desmond Ridder. Take the under, right?
🎄 The Bills get into the holiday spirit. Poor Matt Barkley.
🥶 This sportscaster wasn't happy about the weather. Just a legendary performance.
💪 Looks like AJ Dillon will be playing this weekend. That poor sled...
🤝 Robert Kraft does a solid for a young fan. The kid showed elite patience in the moment.
In between placing waiver claims and setting our lineups, we do a little sports betting around here. Today Geoff is here to give you his three best bets of the week. All odds from our friends at BetMGM.
🎄 Commanders +7.0
The Commanders have been a tough out on the road this season. While they’re only 4-3 ATS as the away team, they’re also undefeated in their last five contests on the road. The team struggled with early pressure by the Giants last week but saw adjustments in the passing game that put them in a spot to tie the game late before the referees took over.
THIS IS PASS INTERFERENCE
— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII)
Dec 19, 2022
The 49ers have looked somewhat unstoppable the last few weeks but they’ve also faced one of the worst rush defenses in the league in Seattle and an eroding Tampa Bay squad in back-to-back weeks. Washington is ranked fourth in defensive rush DVOA and was able to hold Saquon Barkley to 4.1 yards per carry in back-to-back meetings.
Ultimately, Washington was unlucky to get the loss last week and, at the very least, the game was a lot tighter than the 20-12 final score indicated. With almost 70% of the early bets coming in on San Francisco and pushing this Washington line up to +7.0, it’s a solid spot to fade the public and back the Commanders, whose 8-point loss to New York last week was the first game they have lost by more than 7.0 points since Week 6.
🎄 Broncos -2.5
Denver surprisingly took care of the Cardinals with ease last week, picking off the Arizona quarterbacks three times and rushing for a solid 4.9 yards per carry on offense. They now face another weak NFC West team in the Rams, who are struggling just to field a full roster. Los Angeles lost yet another O-Lineman when they placed Brian Allen on IR this week and also lost WR Ben Skowronek for the season as well.
With Aaron Donald questionable and not yet medically cleared to play, the Rams will also be featuring a patchwork defensive line again that allowed eight- and one-yard TDs to AJ Dillon in Week 15. Denver’s currently riding a three-game cover streak and will be getting back Russell Wilson at quarterback after he cleared concussion protocols early.
In truth, the quarterback play for Denver may not even matter much as Baker Mayfield is going to have trouble just surviving the game behind an offensive line that’s allowed the most sacks against this season. With Denver running the ball more effectively, and featuring a top-5 passing defense, look for the Broncos to suffocate the ailing Rams and pull out some kind of moderately convincing win on Christmas Day.
🎄 Top Props Week 16
- Darius Slayton Over 48.5 Receiving Yards -115
- Andy Dalton Under 0.5 Passing TDs +135
❤️️ It's time for Love/Hate!
It’s #LOVEHATE day! Week 16 plus an AMA - Ask Matthew Anything - is up and as always, 100% free.
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Dec 22, 2022
Picking kickers can be a pain, but relax, we have our resident kicking expert Linda to help you make the right choice...
It’s the most wonderful time of the year, that’s right – Semifinals! And in the best fantasy football fashion the weather this weekend is atrocious, not just in one or two games but in about eight. So, let’s see if we can find you an advantage to make it into your fantasy football championships.
🦵 Graham Gano (Linda's Rank: K10)
While I would normally prefer streaming a kicker that’s favored in their matchup, Graham Gano is in a juicy position to put up points this week. The Giants get the Vikings in Week 16, a team that’s giving up the most field goal attempts to opposing teams.
Field goals against isn’t a surefire stat to get behind, though what is in this lovely game we play? But it’s not the only thing Gano has going for him this week. The matchup is tied for the 3rd-highest over/under on the week, according to BetMGM. The most important piece of the puzzle for Gano this week though, is that he’s playing inside. Yep, no weather concerns at all. Talk about a Christmas Miracle!
Gano is rostered in about 60% of Yahoo! leagues, so he’s going to be available on every waiver wire. If he’s available on yours, go make the move and stop thinking about snow and wind for the weekend.
🦵 Michael Badgley (Linda's Rank: K6)
The weather doesn’t look like it’s going to be a huge factor in the Lions matchup with the Panthers. The Money Badger has attempted multiple field goals in four straight games, including 10 attempts over their last three wins. According to BetMGM, the Lions are 3-point favorites this week, lending to a positive game script for Badgley. He’s rostered in less than 50% of Yahoo! leagues.
My full Week 16 kicker rankings can be found on FantasyLife.com.
