Scratch āJordan Love called the best QB in the NFLā off your offseason bingo cardā¦
In todayās Fantasy Life newsletter presented by Happy Head:
- Ranking the top four free-agent RBs available
- What Now: Checking in on your quiet league-mate
- Team Preview: San Francisco 49ers
- How fantasy football was originally invented
- Itās 6/20. Take it away, Ian Hartitzā¦
At this point in the offseason, Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, and Kareem Hunt stand out as the most-accomplished free-agent RBs available.
Each is seemingly waiting for the right situation to come to fruition, meaning eventual RB-needy squads might have their pick of the litter when they ultimately decide to make an addition at the position.
This brings us to todayās topic: Ranking the top four available free-agent RBs in terms of real-life ability entering the year 2023.
Why? Because itās June, baby. Why not!
š³ 1. Dalvin Cook
Averaged the 12th-most yards after contact per carry (3.18) with the 16th-best rate of explosive rushes (11.3%) among 42 qualified RBs in 2022.
Yes, other stats like EPA per rush and success rate paint the picture of a much less efficient back. Also, yes, Cook (28 in August) doesnāt appear to be completely washed if some of his home runs from 2022 are any indication.
Iāve already broken down Cookās most fantasy-friendly landing spots, but his mix of explosiveness and pass-down ability should make him any RB-needy clubās top priority relative to the other free agents at the position.
š¹ 2. Kareem Hunt
Hunt spent his entire career putting up elite tackle-breaking numbers ā¦ until last year.
- 2017: No. 4 in missed tackles forced per carry, No. 13 in yards after contact per carry
- 2018: No. 4, No. 11
- 2019: No. 1, No. 41
- 2020: No. 28, No. 14
- 2021: No. 3, No. 12
- 2022: No. 40, No. 38
28 in August, itās certainly possible Hunt has already played the best football of his career and is no longer the same dynamic threat in the pass-and-run game.
Or maybe a rumored reunion with former OC Eric Bieniemy in Washington is just what Hunt needs to get back into his groove.
Ultimately, Hunt still managed to rank 16th in explosive run-play rate and 10th in PFF receiving grade last season. He still boasts the sort of three-down skill set that would make a lot of sense in a handful of offenses without a proven workhorse available (looking at you, Rams).
šŖ 3. Leonard Fournette
The good: Fournette managed to handle enough volume to post top-12 marks in both overall and per-game PPR scoring while working as the Bucsā lead RB in 2022.
The bad: The artist known as Lombardi Lenny averaged the leagueās fewest yards after contact per attempt (2.31) while also ranking among the gameās bottom-six backs in explosive run-play rate (7.4%).
Playing through a Lisfranc injury didnāt help matters; just realize the only thing that saved Fournette from posting truly abysmal production last season was Tom Bradyās ever-present willingness to check the ball down.
š„ 4. Ezekiel Elliott
Zeke has been forced to battle through early-season knee injuries in back-to-back years.
Of course, thatās life with 2,186 career regular-season touches on the odometer. The 1,881 carries in particular are troublesome considering the history of RBs not being the same after reaching the 1,500 mark.
Elliott is coming off career-worst marks in virtually every efficiency metric. While heās still capable of providing help in short-yardage and pass-blocking situations, the days of Zeke making the most out of a bell-cow role certainly appear to be in the rearview mirror.
Welcome, degenerates. We donāt unplug just because the NFL does. Youāre reading this newsletter because youāre here for the long haul. āWhat now, Cooter?ā Each week Iāll break down ways to survive the off-season.
Survival Tip #14: Check in on your quiet leaguemate.
š¤« Observations of a Quiet Leaguemate
Day 64: The off-season has been mostly quiet. The group chat was filled with talk about rookies and combine stats for a few days. It didnāt take long for me to catch up on the unread messages.
Nothing major to report.
Day 78: Itās been a very active week. The league broke out in chaos and cursed the high heavens when Jahmyr Gibbs was drafted by Detroit.
I almost chimed in, but I feared their anger and confusion with the Lionsā backfield might turn toward me. Everyone calmed down a few days later when DāAndre Swift was traded to the Eagles.
They said they knew that would happen.
They always say that.
Day 80: I think I might ask about our live draft in the group chat today. Iām hoping we can schedule it only one time this year and not have to change the date.
Whatās the point of voting on a draft date if Charlie is going to go fishing and make us reschedule it anyways?!
Day 82: I did it. I asked about the draft. Everyone just started responding with GIFs. I think it means theyāre excited? But the discussion has been tabled for nowā¦ mostly due to it being buried.
Someone did tell Charlie to ask the fish what time works best for them. I liked that.
Iām hopeful, but Charlie will probably auto-draft his team on the lake.
Day 90: Things have settled lately. The chat consists of mostly memes and vague talk of league punishments that no one ever wants to commit to.
Still no further discussion about the draft. I tried.
Day 98: Okay, everyone is freaking out today. And, in my opinion, theyāre overreacting. Apparently, the Vikings changed their team photo on Twitter and this is supposed to be really bad news for Dalvin Cook.
Seriously? A picture change? They need to stop reading into things.
Day 121: Ohā¦
Day 126: Okay so big update. Benny wants to propose a new rule change to add FAAB instead of the typical rolling waivers. Not a huge deal since it would need majority approval, but John is threatening to leave if we change anything at all.
This has caused quite the stir.
I havenāt given my input yet, because we are going to take a vote on Sunday.
I would rather hear everyoneās perspectives before I make a decision. And believe me, they are all very vocal about their opinions.
Iāve muted the chat for now. Iāll catch up on Sunday. Maybe then theyāll want to talk about the draft.
š©ŗ This first-round WR hasnāt been able to practice this offseason. At least he should be okay for training camp.
š Matthew Stafford had some nice words to say about this WR. Heās awfully cheap in fantasy land too.
ā¤ļøļø Packers CB Jaire Alexander gave his two cents on who he believes is the NFLās best QB. Very funny.
š League-winning upside in the last round? Heck yeah, itās possible.
ā This No. 1 WR is pretty affordable in fantasy land. Are you in or out on this rising second-year talent?
š» Jordan Love tried to talk some smack to Bears fans. It didnāt exactly go as planned.
š® Hype continues to grow for this handcuff RB. So youāre saying thereās a chance.
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Fantasy Life senior analyst Ian Hartitz is breaking down all 32 NFL teams this offseason, and weāre closing in on the finish line! Letās take a look at the 49ers, who have arguably the most talented skill-position core in the league, but not exactly the most established situation under centerā¦
šØ WRs
- Deebo Samuel (Ianās WR18)
- Brandon Aiyuk (WR26)
- Jauan Jennings (WR116)
- Danny Gray (WR130)
Hamstring, ankle, and knee injuries certainly didnāt help Samuelās 2022 encore campaign, but things werenāt going great even before suffering the former injury at the end of Week 7.
Overall, Samuel was just the WR18 in PPR points per game during the first seven weeks of the season; he finished as the WR28 on a per-game basis for the entire year.
While Samuelās overall usage didnāt change all that much, his ability to work as one of the gameās best players with the football in his hand did:
- 2022: 13.5 expected PPR points per game (WR21), -2.9 fantasy points below expectation (129th)
- 2021: 15 expected PPR points per game (WR14), +98.5 PPR points above expectation (No. 1)
Samuelās breakout 2021 campaign was thanks to him averaging an absurd 18.2 yards per reception to go along with an unsustainable 59-365-8 rushing line.
The rising fifth-year veteran still led the NFL in yards after the catch per reception last season, but a changing offensive dynamic led to his average target depth cratering from 8.6 yards to 4.5. His carries per game also went from 3.8 before the CMC trade to 3.2 after.
Extra carries are fine and dandy ā fantasy managers will take all the touches they can get. Still, targets remain far superior if the conversation comes down to targets OR carries vs. targets AND carries.
This offense is absolutely loaded and, accordingly doesnāt need to force-feed one particular member. Deebo will still make plenty of great plays ā heās a great football player after all ā but heāll need to once again go super saiyan to make up for another potential WR3-level workload. Thatās tough to prioritize too far up in the WR2 ranks.
As for Aiyuk: His 2022 route-running mixtape is as good as anyone out there. The man seriously has a Davante Adams-vibe to his game
Aiyukās 78-1,015-8 receiving line was good for career-best marks across the board, although he did benefit from Deebo missing four games throughout the season.
I agree with the idea that Aiyuk is truly one of the best under-25 real-life options at the position, but unfortunately, we are talking about FANTASY football, where volume does matter.
The Fantasy Life projections currently have Aiyuk seeing just 99 targets in 2023. This average of just 5.8 targets per game has historically been a no-go at the position when looking for top-24 PPR production:
Only 2018 Tyler Lockett (4.4 targets per game, WR23 PPR points per game), 2016 Tyreek Hill (5.2, WR21) and 2017 JuJu Smith-Schuster (5.6, WR13) posted top-24 fantasy numbers with fewer targets per game.
Average targets per game from a top-24 WR over the past 10 years: 8.8. Median: 8.7.
The standard deviation of the group is 1.4, meaning that 95% of the top-24 sample averaged between six and 11.6 targets per game.
Luckily, Aiyuk (WR29 ADP) isnāt being priced as a true WR2; just realize history tells us that his likely volume will prevent him from truly booming without at least one injury to his volume-hog teammates.
I donāt mind taking shots on Aiyuk in this range anyway ā guys right behind him like Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Michael Pittman could see similar issues ā but it really is tough to see too big of a bull case for the ultra-talented 25-year-old receiver inside of this ever-crowded offense.
WRs not named Brandon or Deebo combined for just two weekly finishes inside the positionās top-24 PPR producers last season ā and none higher than WR17. An injury to either starter would more likely focus volume more on CMC and Kittle as opposed to Jennings, Gray or McCloud.
Check out this podcast between myself and Fantasy Lifeās Chris Allen to hear about some better late-round darts with non-contingency upside.
Read on about George Kittle and more!
