Preseason football sounds pretty nice right about nowā¦
In todayās Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Masterworks:
What positions can provide fantasy goodness in bad offenses?
A deserving RB gets his deal!
What did Kadarius Toney ever do to the injury Gods?
Fantasy Life Mock Draft: Chris has some early takeaways
AFC East Betting Preview: Jets are BACK
Itās 7/25. Take it away, Ian Hartitzā¦
Fantasy football is supposed to be a fun game that attempts to reward the best real-life players with point totals reflecting what they achieve on the field.
Of course, Americaās favorite pastime isnāt perfect when it comes to its scoring always properly rewarding players for their actions.
Look no further than a broken-tackle-filled 12-yard run and a two-yard catch-and-fall reception both equaling 1.2 full-PPR points.
Volume cures all in fantasy football land, allowing players with multiple means of producing points (dual-threat QBs, receiving-friendly RBs) to sometimes outperform their real-life actions in our lovely little game.
This got me thinking: Are certain positions more capable than others when it comes to overcoming bad offensive environments?
Put simply: Yes. There have been more great fantasy RBs in bottom-10 scoring offenses than any other position over the past 10 years:
Top-12 QB: 5% from bottom-10 scoring offenses
Top-24 RB: 23%
Top-24 WR: 17%
Top-12 TE: 20%
Note that with no context, we would expect a 31.25% hit rate from a group of 10 offenses; itās still not ideal to have any position inside of an especially bad offense, but RBs have been far more capable of overcoming their porous environment thanks to sweet, sweet volume.
Right? Letās make sure. The following r-coefficients denote the correlation between each positionās expected PPR fantasy points and their offenseās scoring rank over the past two seasons. A high number means they are very correlated. A lower number indicates the two variables are probably ājust friendsā.
QB: +0.475
RB: +0.261
WR: +0.391
TE: +0.13
The expected, not even realized, fantasy points of RBs and TEs have been far less correlated to their teams overall offensive success than QBs and WRs. Again, both are still positively correlated ā we ideally want all of our fantasy players to play in great offenses ā but itās been far less important for the more underpaid skill-position talents (funny how that works).
Fantasy Lifeās (free!) Strength of Schedule tool shows the implied Vegas point totals for every offense in every game. Oddsmakers arenāt perfect, but they are often directionally correct and can help point us in the direction of good or bad offenses.
These are the bottom-10 projected scoring offenses ahead of 2023:
Cardinals (16.7 points per game)
Buccaneers (18.1)
Texans (18.8)
Rams (19.1)
Colts (19.2)
Titans (19.5)
Commanders (19.6)
Panthers (19.7)
Patriots (20.3)
Packers (20.3)
There are, unsurprisingly not many top-12 QBs or top-24 WRs coming from these offenses. In fact, only Anthony Richardson, Cooper Kupp, Christian Watson, DeAndre Hopkins and Terry McLaurin qualify. Still, Iām not exactly out on any of these players because of this study.
Our findings from RB and TE highlight two potentially exploitable ranges of fantasy drafts: Rounds 7 to 10 RBs (Rachaad White, James Conner, Antonio Gibson, A.J. Dillon, Brian Robinson) as well as dirt cheap LATE-round TEs (Trey McBride, Cade Otton, Jelani Woods, Logan Thomas, Hayden Hurst, Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki, Luke Musgrove).
Obviously, not all of those players are going to hit, but itās worth wondering if the steep discounts they carry compared to pricier early-round options at their respective positions are really worth it.
Long story short:
Itās ideal to target fantasy options in good scoring offenses, but RBs and TEs have been much more adaptable to bad offensive environments than WRs and QBs.
Cool? Cool.
š° A million-dollar Banksy got investors 32% returns?
It's like grabbing Jalen Hurts in a start-up Dynasty Draft.
These results arenāt cherry-picking. This is the whole bushel. Masterworks has built a track record of eight exits, the last three realizing 10.4%, 35%, and 13.9% net returns even while financial markets plummeted.
But art? Really?
Okay, skeptics, here are the numbers. Contemporary art prices:
Outpaced the S&P 500 by 131% over the last 26 years
Have the lowest correlation to equities of any asset class
Remained stable through the dot-com bubble and the ā08 crisis
āNet Return" refers to the annualized internal rate of return net of all fees and costs, calculated from the offering closing date to the date the sale is consummated. IRR may not be indicative of Masterworks paintings not yet sold and past performance is not indicative of future results. See important Regulation A disclosures at masterworks.com/cd.
The Fantasy Life team started a mock draft last weekend to decide who keeps a job and who doesnāt have a fun time and conduct some solid offseason research. Chris Allen is here with some first-round takeaways, presented by Epic Seatsā¦
Iāll be honest. I usually avoid doing mocks before showing up to my redraft league.
Best ball has taught me everything.
Based on trends from a top-heavy tournament allowing multiple entries, Iāve got a feel for who should be available in each round. So, Iāve walked into every home league draft with unwavering confidence.
Drafting against well-adjusted fans should be a walk in the park after battling against sickos who started building their portfolio in March.
At least, thatās what I tell myself until the picks start flying.
We spend so much time on best ball strategy that our redraft approach can get put on autopilot. To help, I got some of the Fantasy Life staff together for a mock.
Letās look at the teams and their process with a few rounds complete.
Jefferson was one of five WRs in the top 10 for target share, air yard share, weighted opportunity, and routes per dropback. The Vikings ended last season sixth in pass rate over expected (PROE) and added a receiver with their only top-100 pick. No need to overthink this one.
Before suffering a fractured hip, only Tyreek Hill had more targets than Chase. The explosive junior saw even more work out of the slot in his second season while still functioning as the WR1 on an offense with the fourth-highest Super Bowl odds. My Bengals bias aside, there isnāt a better option from the two spot than Chase.
You can find Kupp towards the top of the same lists as Chase and Jefferson before injuries derailed his and the Ramsā season. But we should expect more passing with a healthy Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay back to command the offense. Donāt be surprised if we see a lite-version of Kuppās triple-crown performance this year without the team adding more competition.
Kelce is still the undisputed TE1. He had the third-best targets per first down rate (2.0) while still having a target share (24.9%) similar to D.K. Metcalf (25.6%) in 2022.
If Patrick Mahomes still trusts him, so should we.
Ekeler ran hot in ā22 with an 18.5% target share alongside the leagueās 10th-highest share of his teamās carries from inside the 10-yard line.
Kellen Mooreās arrival should produce more vertical shots from the Chargersā offense, but Ekeler still has the every-down role to justify taking him in the first round.
Looking to catch some of these first-round picks in action this season? With Fantasy Life's exclusive ticket provider, Epic Seats, you can! Get the best deals for the best games, all season long. Get your tickets TODAY!
The AFC East is slated to be one of the best divisions in all of football, thanks to many moving pieces in the offseason. Here, Matt McCuen will break down what all four teams did in the offseason and how he believes that will translate to the field and sportsbooks this season.
The New England Patriots had controlled the AFC East for a long time, winning the division from 2003-2019.
Since then, Josh Allen has flipped the script on that narrative as the Bills have been crowned champions for three consecutive years.
Miami will look to win their first divisional title since 2008 when they went 11-5.
The Jets, meanwhile, bring in a newly constructed roster headlined by future hall-of-fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers as they attempt to win for the first time since 2002 when Chad Pennington and Curtis Martin led them.
New York enters this season with their highest expectations in over a decade. The main reason for that is the addition of future Hall of Fame signal-caller Aaron Rodgers, who was acquired via the Jetsā headline-stealing blockbuster trade in late April.
But the million-dollar question is, how good does this team become with the addition of Rodgers?
Well, if you look at last year, this move could make them one of the best teams in football. New York ranked fourth in scoring defense last year and continues to be led by multiple stars, including Rookie of the Year cornerback Sauce Gardner.
As great as the defense was for the Jets, the offense was sometimes tough to watch. The Jets ended the year ranked 29th in the NFL in points per game (17.4 PPG).
Pick: New York Jets to win the Division (+250, BetMGM)
I am extremely high on this Jets team entering the season. New York has a high-end defense, and now, with the addition of Rodgers and some other offensive weapons, can be one of the more balanced teams in the NFL.
The trade for Rodgers has been well noted, but I also love what the Jets did in the offseason at the WR position. They brought in Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, who each have experience playing with Rodgers from their days in Green Bay.
I am also high on the addition of Mecole Hardman, who is one of the fastest players in the league and will fit into this offense well.
Lastly, we must remember second-year star Garrett Wilson, who should have great success paired with Rodgers.
I will take a chance and bet on the Jets to win their first division title since 2002.
The ultimate fantasy football and sports betting experience. Expert rankings, projections, betting models, customized tools, league sync and so much more!