The artist known as Teddy Two Gloves has a new home
Late-Round QBs: Geno Smith has a LOT going his way
Cheapest workhorse RBs: A certain Bengals veteran leads the way
Itâs 8/8. Take it away, Ian HartitzâŚ
There are still quite a few RB dominoes left to (hopefully) fall before Week 1.
From big-name available free agents, to early-round holdout candidates: Itâs a scary time for fantasy football managers to believe in Murphyâs Law.
That said: Three key events unfolded on Monday as 30 teams continued to get ready for their first preseason action of 2023.
The former Chiefs and Browns talent spent his entire career putting up elite tackle-breaking numbers ⌠until last year.
2017: No. 4 in missed tackles forced per carry, No. 13 in yards after contact per carry
2018: No. 4, No. 11
2019: No. 1, No. 41
2020: No. 28, No. 14
2021: No. 3, No. 12
2022: No. 40, No. 38
28 in August, itâs certainly possible Hunt has already played the best football of his career and is no longer the same dynamic threat in the pass-and-run game, although the veteran deserves some level of credit for managing to rank 16th in explosive run-play rate and 10th in PFF receiving grade last season.
Ultimately, adding Hunt to the equation would be great for the Saintsâ real-life problems â they need RB help after all â but pretty f*cking far from okay for fantasy managers of all parties involved.
The expected early-season two-back committee of Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller would grow to three, and thereâs no telling if Hunt could work his way into the regular rotation in Week 4 and beyond with some good performances.
đ Browns RB Jerome Ford (hamstring) was injured in Mondayâs practice
The Brownsâ rising second-year RB was expected to work as Nick Chubbâs direct backup with room for pass-game involvement, which is a juicy enough projected role to land rather highly in my Handcuff RB Tiers.
Not all hamstring injuries are created equal; hopefully, Fordâs is more of the three-week variety as opposed to anything that could keep him on the PUP list to start the season (he did give a thumbs-up after!).
Head coach Kyle Shanahanâs assertion that Mitchell would be sidelined for âat least probably a weekâ hardly helps set a timeline, and the often-injured backâs laundry list of issues since entering the league (and even in college) also doesnât help matters.
This profiles as one of the more sneaky-relevant injury situations to monitor in fantasy football at the moment considering just how bonkers Christian McCaffrey went with Mitchell sidelined last season AND the potential for a cheap handcuff (Jordan Mason? Tyrion Davis-Price?) to emerge in this ever-efficient 49ers run game.
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Weâve almost come full circle from JJ Zachariasonâs iconic e-book and Rich Hribar preaching about the Konami Code. ADPs for the elite passers are back in the second round. Plus, mobile QBs are the top priority.
Now, JJ and Rich are like Thanos resting after the Snap. Their ideologies have reshaped the industry. And our options appear thinner than ever as we come out of the middle rounds. But, after a quick look back, Chris found a few worth targeting for the 2023 season.
đ Quick Notes on Process
You already know what makes a good fantasy QB: lots of passing and touchdowns. Preferably, our signal-caller is responsible for both. And, using the last season of Best Ball Mania data as a proxy, the results re-emphasize what QB archetype(s) should be our target.
At first glance, youâll see a few names and think itâs all about rushing. And youâre not wrong. But letâs dig a little deeper than these guys have some juice.
Justin Fields (15.8%) and Daniel Jones (9.8%) were top five in scramble rate last season. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence lit up the sky as the Jaguars were 12th in pass rate over expectation (PROE).
But, more importantly, Lawrence had the 11th-most rushing yards of any QB. He produced more than Lamar Jackson on unscripted carries (219 yards vs 206). So, with three of last yearâs LRQBs falling into a similar bucket, we have a profile: scramblers.
There were 37 passers with ten or more scrambles, and they collectively averaged 0.21 EPA per attempt on the ground. Patrick Mahomes averaged 0.18 EPA per attempt through the air. Scrambles matter.
So, of course, letâs find the QBs in the late rounds with solid pass-catching corps or on an offense predicated on the pass. Theyâll give us a viable floor.
But if we want to compete with the early-round slingers, weâll need guys that will at least think about dashing downfield if the situation calls for it.
On the one hand, Geno Smith redefined his career in 2022. He led the league in CPOE during the regular season. And, based on ADPs, we love Seattleâs offense. They have four skill players in the Top 100. Only the Chiefs and Eagles are more popular.
On the other hand, folks may think last season was a fluke. Plus, we âknowâ how HC Pete Carroll likes to operate. A strong running game with a stout defense should be any teamâs recipe for success. And Carroll does have a penchant for taking the controller away from his OC when the offense falters.
After the team went 9-7 in 2017, the Seahawks ranked 32nd and 30th in PROE and red-zone PROE. A similar trend happened after Russell Wilsonâs injury-riddled 2020 season.
But we didnât see Seattleâs season end on a depressing note in â22. If anything, Smith not only operated the offense as designed but brought an element back to the Seahawksâ offense most hadnât seen in some time.
Whether due to age or injury, Wilson couldnât move like he did a half-decade ago. If routes werenât open, his acrobatic skills couldnât save him. But Genoâs unscripted runs kept Seattle in games. And they should be part of his appeal in fantasy for the upcoming season.
Seattleâs already told us with their wallet what parts of the offense they want to develop. They added the consensus WR1 and a pass-catching RB with early-round capital.
Nothing indicates we wonât see more of Geno throwing the ball in 2023. And with his tendency to scramble, he can slide into the top-10 discussion again this year.
The only thing better than getting a workhorse RB in the early rounds? Getting one in the later rounds. Ian is here with thoughts on some of fantasy footballâs cheapest potential workhorse RBs.
The ideal fantasy football RB has an elite combination of:
Talent. The RB is personally extremely good at football.
Workload. The offensive play-caller has no reservations about feeding his lead RB the ball like itâs 1993.
Offensive environment. A badass offensive line and great QB helps produce anyoneâs idea of a top-tier scoring offense.
Of course, the few backs who possess high levels in each of these categories are few and far between; they arenât going to be available after the first round or two in drafts of most shapes and sizes.
One such RB serves as a potentially mighty exception to this rule:
Talent is the potential issue here: Mixon carried bottom-eight marks in yards per carry (3.9), yard after contact per carry (2.63) and PFF's Elusive Rating (33.1).
Of course, PFFâs reigning 28th-ranked offensive line didnât exactly help matters on the ground, and Mixon earned the companyâs sixth-highest receiving grade among 47 qualified backs.
Go ahead and put a question mark in the talent box, but the 27-year-old veteran easily passes our final two tests. Only Austin Ekeler averaged more expected PPR points per game than Mixon last season, and that was with now-Broncos RB Samaje Perine taking all sorts of fantasy-friendly pass-down work.
Ekeler (20.4 expected PPR points per game)
Mixon (19)
Christian McCaffrey (18.6)
Saquon Barkley (17.9)
Josh Jacobs (17.4)
Mixon has worked as the RB6 in PPR points per game in each of the past two seasons; even continued declines in overall rushing efficiency probably wonât be enough to keep him out of the positionâs top-12 options thanks to his status as the primary TD scorer inside of the leagueâs reigning seventh-ranked scoring offense.
So why is Mixon still regularly available in Round 4 of drafts?
Because of past concerns about the Bengals releasing him (Mixon took a pay cut) and the potential for the veteran to be suspended for off-the-field issues (next court date: August 14).
I wonât pretend to be a master of the U.S. Legal System or know exactly how NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell feels about the situation â but if they drag their feet even a little bit: Mixon shapes up as fantasyâs most-affordable workhorse back inside of a great offense.
The potential for a small suspension is arguably already baked into this price; itâd be surprising if anyone finds a way to rank Mixon outside fantasyâs top-12 backs in Week 1 and beyond.
Mixon is Fantasy Lifeâs only RB going outside of the top-40 picks projected to see 250-plus combined carries and targets (Najee Harris just barely missed the ADP cutoff), but there are a handful of additional RBs expected to see all sorts of volume.
The catch: Personal talent level or severe offensive environment concerns. Sometimes both. But beggars canât be choosers, and the following seven RBs pop off the page when looking at their potential workload at cost.
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