It wouldn’t be the playoffs if we weren’t talking about the weather …
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:
- Saturday Injuries: Not too shabby …
- Underdog Pick’Em: We pick ’em, you play ’em.
- Ravens vs. Texans: Wind, winter weather, forever more.
- 49ers vs. Packers: Points, points, and more points.
- It’s 1/20: Take it away, Matthew Freedman …
The Divisional Round kicks off today with two games: Texans at Ravens and Packers at 49ers. While Geoff Ulrich and Matt LaMarca break down these games later in the newsletter, here are the key injuries to be aware of for each matchup.
🤠 Texans
WR Noah Brown (shoulder, IR) is out for the year after trying to gut his way through an injury last week, and the Texans are without rotational EDGE Jerry Hughes (ankle) for a second straight game, but their injury report is otherwise encouraging.
FB Andrew Beck (back, Q) has a chance to play after practicing limitedly on Thursday, and RT George Fant (illness, Q) doesn’t seem in real danger of missing this game.
🐦⬛ Ravens
Despite coming off the bye, the Ravens are not as healthy as they’d want to be. On offense, No. 1 TE Mark Andrews (ankle, IR) and depth WR Tylan Wallace (knee) are out, as is No. 1 CB Marlon Humphrey (calf) on defense.
And I’m skeptical that returner/WR Devin Duvernay (back, IR), LB Del’Shawn Phillips (shoulder), and S Ar’Darius Washington (pectoral, IR) will play through their questionable tags.
The Ravens aren’t massively injured, but the absence of Andrews and Humphrey is notable. I’ll likely bet Texans +10 if that number becomes available.
🧀 Packers
The Packers are without rotational EDGE Kingsley Enagbare (knee), and No. 2 RB A.J. Dillon (thumb/neck, Q) seems likely to miss his third consecutive game, but a limited practice to close the week opens up the possibility of a return.
The big unknown for the Packers is No. 1 CB Jaire Alexander (shoulder/ankle, Q), who suffered an injury aggravation on Sunday. The Packers medical staff tends to be conservative with injured players, but Alexander has the same practice pattern this week that he had last week (LP DNP DNP). He’s one of their most important players on the defense, and this is the playoffs. I tentatively expect him to play.
I also think LB Isaiah McDuffie (neck, Q) and P Daniel Whelan (illness, Q) will suit up.
⛏️ 49ers
The 49ers exited Week 18 with a lot of injuries, but they got almost fully healthy over the bye.
EDGE Clelin Ferrell (knee) is out, and LB Dre Greenlaw (Achilles, Q) is uncertain, but he might play after getting in two limited practices to close the week.
Otherwise, everyone else ended the week with a full practice.
I bet the Packers early in the week at +10 when the 49ers still had some injury uncertainty, but I wouldn’t touch Green Bay at +9.5.
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The Texans and Ravens meet in a game that will likely feature frigid and windy conditions. Baltimore has the soon-to-be 2x MVP winner Lamar Jackson under center, while Houston will counter with likely 2023 OROY C.J. Stroud. Will the star QBs live up to the hype, or will the weather be the star of this game? Geoff Ulrich breaks everything for the Divisional Round game.
👎 Under 43.5 (-110, BetMGM)
- Play to: 43.0 (-110, unless the weather improves)
I bet this total in our FREE Bet Tracker at the beginning of the week. It’s moved nearly three points since then (46.0 to 43.5), but I would still lean towards the under at this number.
Let’s start with the weather in Baltimore this Saturday: a high of 25 degrees Fahrenheit and a low of 16, plus winds in the 15-20 mph range. That’s not great. As noted in our Divisional Round Betting Life newsletter, outdoor unders have been money in the playoffs, and two of the three outdoor games went well under their totals last week.
There are other trends, too. Houston is a solid 11-7 to unders on the year, and their defense has allowed an average of 14 points per game over the past three weeks.
While the forecast is worth watching, I’d still be inclined to play this at its current number unless something drastically changes with the weather.
🚌 Top Prop: Gus Edwards Anytime TD (+120, FanDuel)
While he’s not flashy like Zay Flowers and can’t bend the field to his will like Odell Beckham, RB Gus Edwards remains, by far, the Ravens’ best TD producer. Entering this game, the veteran has 13 scores on the season and has now scored 12 times in his last 11 games — a rate even Christian McCaffrey would be proud of.
Edwards leads all RBs in carries this year inside the five-yard line, and while he’ll face a tougher rush defense this week, it’s worth noting that the Texans haven’t been stellar inside the red zone, allowing the 12th-most rushing TDs to opposing RBs this season.
While you may not agree with how much the Ravens use Edwards, his role isn’t going to change heading into such an important game. It makes his +120 anytime odds extremely attractive and also makes him a great first-TD candidate (+650, FanDuel), especially given that the Ravens have scored the first TD in 14 of their games this year (the most in the league).
🚀 Same-Game Parlay (+3000, DraftKings)
- Texans +9.5
- Under 43.5
- Edwards anytime TD
- Stroud over 8.5 rush yards
- Stroud under 234.5 passing yards
As far as +3000 five-way parlays go, I think this one is somewhat reasonable. I discussed the case for the under above, and correlating the underdog with a play on the under often makes sense in games with a spread this wide. The Ravens are also a little banged up on the back end with CB Marlon Humphrey out, and the Texans for the year are 7-3 ATS as underdogs.
Using the Edwards TD prop alongside the under gives us a “negative correlation,” but the boost in odds is worth it. The Ravens still have a 26.5-point implied team total and are likely to score a couple of times, even if the under hits.
Finally, two bets I do like that also correlate (positively) are the under on Stroud’s passing yards with an over on his rushing yards. The Ravens allowed just a 60% completion rate to opposing QBs this season and were first in yards per attempt on defense. Stroud ran for 20 yards in his first game against Baltimore and has been over 8.5 yards rushing in three of his past four starts.
Today’s second game features two of the most surprisingly dominant offenses in football. The 49ers were prolific with Brock Purdy under center, while the Packers were among the best offenses in football over the second half of the year. Will either defense be able to get stops consistently, or will the offenses reign supreme? Matt LaMarca breaks down his best bets for Packers-49ers.
👌 Best Bet: Over 50.5 (-110, BetMGM)
When the 49ers have been at full strength offensively, they’ve been impossible to stop. In 13 games where Deebo Samuel played his usual complement of snaps, the team has averaged 32.3 points per game. They’ve scored at least 30 points nine times and are first in the league in EPA/play.
The Packers’ defense came up with a few big plays last week vs. the Cowboys, but the 49ers are a whole different animal. Green Bay ranks just 23rd in EPA/play defensively for the year, so it’s hard to imagine them stopping this juggernaut.
That said, I do think the Packers can keep up offensively. Their offense has been nothing short of phenomenal over the second half of the year, with Jordan Love blossoming into one of the best QBs in football.
The 49ers defense has a lot of similarities to the one that Love shredded in the Wild Card round. Both the 49ers and Cowboys can rush the passer, and if you let them build a lead, it can be a long day for your QB. However, they’re vulnerable against the run and against QBs who get the ball out quickly, something that Love has excelled at this season.
The only real X-factor here is the weather. Things can only get so bad in California, but the current forecast calls for rain and moderate winds. It’s something to consider, but I don’t think it should significantly impact the offenses overall.
⬇️ Top Prop: Christian Watson Under 2.5 Receptions (-125, DraftKings)
The Packers receiving corps was a major question mark at the start of the year, but they suddenly have an abundance of options at the position. It’s gotten to the point where Watson has become more of a luxury than a necessity.
Watson returned from a multi-week absence in the Wild Card round, but he’s still hampered by a hamstring injury. He was limited to a 38% route participation vs. the Cowboys and saw just one target. He might be a bit healthier vs. the 49ers, but he was a limited participant at practice all week. With Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and Jayden Reed all proving capable replacements, I expect another limited workload for Watson.
🤝 Same-Game Parlay (+1257, FanDuel)
- Over 50.5
- Christian McCaffrey anytime TD
- Aaron Jones anytime TD
- Jones over 68.5 rushing yards
- Watson under 2.5 receptions
- Watson under 28.5 receiving yards
I think this SGP correlates nicely. The over 50.5 pairs well with anytime TDs for McCaffrey and Jones, who are more than capable of finding the paint. McCaffrey has scored in all but three games this season, while Jones scored three times last week.
And Jones should continue to see an expanded workload with A.J. Dillon banged up. He’s handled at least 20 carries in four straight games, and he’s cleared 100 yards in each of them.
Finally, I’m throwing in the under on both of Watson’s receiving props. If he’s as limited as he was last week, it’s going to be tough sledding for him vs. the 49ers.
