The sharpest of sports bettors vs. one of the worldās most efficient sports betting marketsā¦
In todayās Betting Life Newsletter:
- Top Dog: Rufus Peabody vs. the market.
- Unabated: Donāt make these prop betting mistakes!
- Tail or Fade? A disgusting Thursday Night Football betā¦
- Anytime TD Tool: For the real degenerates.
- TNF: This definitely wonāt be terrible!
- Itās 10/12: Take it away, Matthew Freedmanā¦
- Waitā¦Betting Life Newsletter?! You read that right.
As a loyal subscriber of Fantasy Life, we wanted to give you a peek behind the curtain of the newest branch of the family - Betting Life.
What follows is todayās edition of the Betting Life Newsletter, we hope you enjoy it as much as you do the Fantasy Life newsletter! Interested?
For the Week 5 āBigger Pictureā Betting Life episode, I chatted with Rufus Peabody of Unabated about a number of NFL and betting topics, including the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings, which (in my opinion) ā even 12 or so years after they were first released ā are still the sharpest publicly available power ratings around.
Despite having a dogās name, Rufus is widely regarded as one of the best bettors in the world.
In the Week 5 Thursday Betting Life Newsletter, I compared my personal power ratings with the market-based sets provided by Mike Beuoy at Inpredictable and Ben Baldwin on social media (as of early Wednesday afternoon).
In this issue of the newsletter, I want to repeat that exercise ā but with Rufusā Massey-Peabody ratings ā so that I can see in a very straightforward way where he disagrees with the betting market at a high level.
I think the value of that information is apparent.
ā¬ļø The Teams Rufus Likes More than the Market
- Buccaneers: +2.49
- Seahawks: +2.39
- Saints: +2.34
ā ļø Buccaneers (+2.49)
- Massey-Peabody: +0.79
- Market: -1.7
What if ā¦ Mayfield is actually good? Or at least decent?
He flashed in his first year and finished No. 2 in the Offensive Rookie of the Year voting. He underwhelmed in his second season under extremely suboptimal circumstances, but then he did well in his third season under the stabilizing influence of new HC Kevin Stefanski.
But then, in his fourth year, he suffered a Week 2 shoulder injury that derailed his season, and in his fifth year, he was traded shortly before the season started to a ādead man walkingā Panthers team.
Given his circumstances, his poor performance can be somewhat contextualized away ā and then weāre left with a QB who is currently No. 5 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.150, per RBs Donāt Matter).
šŖ Seahawks (+2.39)
- Massey-Peabody: +1.69
- Market: -0.7
No matter what top-level offensive metric you look at, the Seahawks are in the top 12, ranking No. 7 in EPA (0.068), No. 4 in SR (48.6%), and No. 8 in DVOA (14.1%, per FTN).
They can pass and run with explosiveness and consistency.
And they have a top-eight defense against the run and are improving against the pass with their young cohort of cornerbacks.
āļø Saints (+2.34)
- Massey-Peabody: +1.84
- Market: -0.5
The Saints are top-five in defensive EPA (-0.164), SR (37.2%), DVOA (-14.9%), and yards per play (4.5). Only once this year have they allowed an opponent to score even 20 points.
On offense, they have an above-average collection of skill-position talent led by QB Derek Carr, who in turn has one of the best backups in the league in Jameis Winston.
ā¬ļø The Teams Rufus Likes Less than the Market
- Bengals: -3.02
- Falcons: -1.84
- Steelers: -1.53
šÆ Bengals (-3.02)
- Massey-Peabody: +0.18
- Market: +3.2
On the podcast, Rufus mentioned that the ratings donāt take most injury situations into account. For instance, the ratings know if a starting QB is out ā but they donāt know if he is playing through an injury, which is the situation we had with the Bengals and QB Joe Burrow in Weeks 3-4.
That said, Burrow was No. 29 in composite EPA + CPOE (-0.012) in Weeks 1-2 ā before he aggravated his calf injury ā and in Week 5, he was still only No. 12 (0.152).
The defense has also been a mediocre unit to start the year, ranking Nos. 18 & 19 in EPA (-0.017) and SR (44.1%).
Itās hard to believe ā¦ but maybe the Bengals are just an average-ish team this year?
š Falcons (-1.84)
- Massey-Peabody: -4.24
- Market: -2.4
As much as the Falcons might wish for it not to be the case, the NFL is a pass-driven league ā and theyāre Nos. 22 & 29 in offensive and defensive pass DVOA (-1.9%, 26.8%).
If a team struggles to pass and defend the pass, it probably wonāt win many games.
āļø Steelers (-1.53)
- Massey-Peabody: -3.23
- Market: -1.7
To this point in the season, the Steelers have been the leagueās luckiest team. Theyāre 3-2 but have a -31 point differential and could easily be 0-5.
HC Mike Tomlin is something of a motivational wizard, but thereās only so much magic he can work with a roster relatively lacking in talent.
šØ Week 6: Seahawks at Bengals?
Iām not saying that Rufus is betting this or that his ratings are saying you should bet this ā¦ but itās notable that Massey-Peabody likes the Seahawks and dislikes the Bengals significantly more than the market ā¦ and those two teams are playing this week.
And Iām not even saying that you should bet on the Seahawks ā but I do have a position for this game logged in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.
Check out Mattās FULL convo with Rufus!
Pitfalls can be hard to avoid when betting the player prop market. Lucky for us, our friend Captain Jack from Unabated is here to walk us through avoiding one of the biggest onesā¦
For many bettors, an NFL week isnāt complete without a healthy dose of player props. Individual performance can seem easier to manage than the vagaries of team play. Just ask anyone whoās lost a side or total on a ball tipped at the line that goes for a pick-six.
On the surface, props appear beatable. No way Josh Allen doesnāt shred the Giants, right? But there are pitfalls that trip up many bettors. Letās look at the mistakes you must avoid when betting on player props.
š The Popularity of NFL Player Props
For years, books paid little mind to prop bets. And if you did specialize in props, you would often be informed your business is no longer desired.
However, with legalization came a new generation of U.S. sports bettors. They were introduced to betting via daily fantasy sports. It has created a surge in the popularity of player props and resulted in books being more tolerant of props. But that doesnāt mean limiting is a thing of the past. If you exclusively play props, you could come in the crosshairs for books.
š§® Using DFS Projections To Beat NFL Player Props
DFS players are already familiar with projections for those sites. There are many services out there that have fantastic algorithms to project player performance for expert-level DFS usage.
Youāll have to do your own research as to which site, or blend of sites, becomes your source of truth. But be careful to avoid the mistake bettors make when using this approach.
š« The Big Props Mistake
Bettors tend to conflate mean and median.
The mean and median are very close together in a typical balanced probability distribution. If we were to choose a whole number between 1 and 5, then after many trials, we would expect our average to be 3. Thatās the mean. We would also expect the median number to be 3. Thatās the point at which 50% of the values on the list are above it, and 50% are below it.
However, with player performance in an NFL game, it is not a normal balanced distribution. The mean and the median donāt line up. Thatās because a player may go off for a spectacular day, but the lower barrier will always be 0. Simply, the mean will be higher than the median.
The problem is that sportsbooks arenāt making their line based on the mean. If they did, then mindlessly betting unders would be profitable.
Many bettors donāt realize this. They take mean projections from a DFS site and attempt to use them as their answer key in a betting market. This results in betting too many overs. Itās almost guaranteed to be unprofitable for the bettor.
ā”ļø Converting Mean To Median in NFL Player Props
To convert a mean projection to an effective median, you need simulation. For the average bettor, building a simulator is beyond their technical expertise. Unabated solves that with it NFL Player Prop Simulator.
Enter a projection and have it simulated 10,000 times. You get a distribution of outcomes and a median from the simulation.
š» Using Player Projections
Unabatedās Prop Odds screen allows you to load and blend projections from various sites right on the screen. If you run the in-line simulator, youāll convert all your means to medians and see your edge against current lines in the betting market.
But be careful. While large edges exist in NFL player props, you should always be willing to be suspicious of edges that appear too large. See if there is something that might not be factored into the projection. Seek alternate opinions.
Avoid those mistakes, and you can be well on your way to finding profitable betting spots in the player prop markets.
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āļø Can you guess the trend? I couldnāt.
š¶ļø Best Bets and HOT TAKES for Week 6. How spicy is too spicy??
š Freedman reads a chart: The Commanders couldāve drafted Joey Porter Jr. or Brian Branch ā¦ but they have a 166-lb. corner instead.
š„Ŗ To borrow from maybe the greatest movie of all time: āIāll bet what heās betting.ā
šµ āYakety YACā: The Dolphins are running away from the league.
š° For those degenerates who like to lose money betting on first TD props: Maybe this will help us lose a little less money?
š“ This is totally normal and not at all unhealthy. People tend to work well and think rationally when hallucinating from lack of sleep.
š¤ And, now, a baseball tweet from someone who probably lost money. I canāt wait for the robot revolution.
š„ The āpublicā is absolutely on fire. āHansel, heās so hot right now.ā
š© The most disgusting sentence Iāve ever read. Technically, theyāre NFL players.
šØ Thursday Night Football trend alert! Evidently, wind is bad.
Week 6 kicks off TONIGHT with a SUPER EXCITING AFC West matchup between the Chiefs and Broncos. Matt LaMarca is here to break it all down from a betting angleā¦
We have an AFC West divisional showdown between two rivals for this weekās edition of Thursday Night Football. The Chiefs and Broncos rivalry has been pretty one-sided over the past handful of years, with the Chiefs securing 15 consecutive wins.
Unsurprisingly, theyāre expected to take care of business in their first matchup of 2023, with the Chiefs hosting the Broncos as double-digit home favorites.
Can the Broncos manage to end their misery vs. the Chiefs ā or at least secure a cover ā or will the Kansas City machine keep on rolling? Letās dive in.
š“ Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
- Spread: Chiefs -10.5 (-110, BetMGM)
- Total: 47.0
- Moneylines: Broncos +425/Chiefs -600
The weather is the first thing to discuss in this matchup. There is a decent chance for some rainfall, but the more significant factor is the wind. The current forecast calls for 15-20 mile per hour sustained winds, with gusts into the 30s. Those have the potential to be a game-changer.
Weather is often overblown in NFL contests, but intense wind impacts the deep passing game and kicking. Both of those factors directly affect scoring.
Unders havenāt been hugely profitable in games with comparable wind conditions, but it has given under bettors a slight edge in games with high totals. In games where the total has closed at 45 points or higher, the under is 35-31 with winds between 15 and 20 miles per hour dating back to 2005.
The under wouldāve been much more appealing if the sharps hadnāt gotten their hands on it early. This figure opened at 51.0, but it has been driven all the way down to 47.5. Itās even down to 47.0 at some locations.
One of the biggest mistakes that amateur bettors make is āchasing steam.ā Grabbing the under on 47.5 ā or potentially lower if you wait till kickoff ā means surrendering at least 3.5 points of CLV. That doesnāt mean that the under canāt still win, but youāre getting a substantially worse bet than what the sharps got early in the week.
š¤ Best Bet: Broncos +10.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Instead of chasing the steam with the under, I will take my chances with the Broncos.
While this rivalry has been pretty one-sided of late, the team has at least been able to occasionally cover the spread. Theyāre 5-6 ATS against Patrick Mahomes for his career, including 3-2 in Kansas City. More importantly, theyāre 5-2 ATS vs. Mahomes when getting more than a touchdown.
That jives with everything we know about the Chiefs: Theyāre an elite football team, but they struggle to cover as big favorites.
Theyāre just 17-22-1 ATS when favored by more than a touchdown with Mahomes under center, including 1-1 this season. They did manage to blow out the Bears as massive favorites, but the Jets managed to make the game competitive.
The Broncos have been a lousy football team this season, but they do at least boast a competent passing attack. Russell Wilson has had a resurgence under new HC Sean Payton, ranking sixth among QBs in EPA + CPOE composite. Heās also averaged 8.2 adjusted yards per attempt, which aligns with his average from his 10 years with the Seahawks.
The Broncos defense will surrender plenty of points in this spot, but their offense should be able to score some of their own. This game could be more competitive than people think, and a backdoor cover is always possible with a spread this large.
The weather could also hold the high-flying Chiefs offense to fewer points than usual, making our +10.5 even more valuable.
