Brandin Cooks DNP (wrist, pissed at the team for not trading him, sick of Davis Mills)...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by CreditStrong:
- Things aren't looking great for Jonathan Taylor
- Week 9: Rankings & Tiers
- TNF: Fantasy & Betting Picks
- A case for Dameon Pierce
- Bets from the group chat: All Eagles
- It's 11/3. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
One thing that got lost in the shuffle this week was RB Jonathan Taylor tweaking his ankle in the second half of the Colts' game against the Commanders.
It's the same ankle and the same injury that kept him out of two games earlier this season, and now he's starting out this week with a DNP:
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor will not practice today after tweaking the same ankle that held him out of 2 games earlier this season. Reich said team will weigh his progress as the week progresses.
Signed Jordan Wilkins to the PS as well.
RB depth chart
Taylor
Jackson
Moss
Wilkins— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer)
Nov 2, 2022
It's a very concerning development for the Colts and Taylor's fantasy managers, especially since the team just shipped Nyheim Hines off to the Bills.
Enter: Deon Jackson, an RB who should not be available on any waiver wires.
The last time Taylor and Hines missed a game for the Colts, Jackson put up true bellcow numbers against the Jags (12-42-1 on the ground and 10-70 through the air). The pass-catching ability is most notable here, especially with no other backs on the roster with a similar profile.
It's understandable to be concerned about this Colts offense with Sam Ehlinger at the helm—it's unlikely he'll check down at a similar rate to Matt Ryan—but this is a situation where we need to chase volume and opportunity.
Not only could Jackson be a nice spot start in Week 9 if the Colts elect to rest Taylor, but there are also scenarios where the Colts continue to lose games and are forced to shut down Taylor.
If still available in your league, Deon Jackson once again a priority add (avail in 84% of Yahoo leagues) twitter.com/ProFootballTal…
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Nov 2, 2022
If Taylor continues to gut it out, you can toss Jackson back to the wire. But there's simply too much ambiguity with this team and backfield not to stash him right now.
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It is time to make those tough lineup decisions, and Dwain has you covered with in-depth player tiers, rankings, and analysis. Here are a few of his favorites for Week 9:
Running Back
🥈 Tier 2 – Aaron Jones
Over the first four games, Jones averaged 40% of the Packers' rushing attempts. However, that number spiked to 59% over the last four games.
This development makes Jones a low-end RB1 option thanks to his 58% route participation and 21% TPRR on the season. He continues to bogart almost all of the passing-down work.
Jones and Dillon's underlying rushing data and ranks versus 46 RBs with at least 50 attempts:
🥉 Tier 3 – Miles Sanders
Sanders and the Eagles are double-digit favorites on BetMGM and carry the second-highest team total for Week 9. The veteran back is still splitting time with Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell, averaging 14.4 rushing attempts for 81.25 yards in games when all three play.
The committee caps his touch total, but the Eagles could run the ball on over 50% of plays. The Texans are also fresh off of a game where they couldn’t stop Derrick Henry despite a Titans passing attack that didn’t register 75 yards in the air.
Houston’s opponents average 32.6 rushing attempts for 184 yards and 1.4 TDs per game in non-overtime play.
Sanders upgrades to a high-end RB2 for Week 9, and his current rushing-yardage prop is 79.5 at BetMGM.
Wide Receiver
🥈 Tier 2 – Chris Godwin
Godwin averages 10.3 targets in the four games where he has played on 85% of the passing dropbacks. However, he has averaged only 68 yards with zero TDs as Tampa Bay’s offense has struggled to find a groove.
The 26-year-old WR has eclipsed the 90% route participation threshold in his last three games.
Historically, Godwin has been a 1.90 to 2.20 yards per route player, but that number sits at 1.74 in 2022. Godwin isn’t a year removed from his January ACL surgery, which is likely part of the challenge. As we move closer to the one-year mark, we could see Godwin’s efficiency metrics improve.
The Rams allow the sixth-fewest points to opposing pass catchers (49.6), but they utilize zone coverage more than any other NFL team (86%).
Godwin has a 12% TPRR and 0.65 YPRR against man coverage this season but has a 29% TPRR and 2.19 YPRR against zone.
Godwin is a SMASH play as a high-end WR2 against the Rams.
Tight end
🥉 Tier 3 – Taysom Hill
Hill registered season-highs in snaps (36%), rushing attempts (31%), route participation (34%), and targets (18%) in Week 8. The Saints lost Mark Ingram II during the game, which might have led to the enhanced role, but it could continue, given the lackluster depth chart behind Alvin Kamara.
Over the last four games, Hill averages two pass attempts, 6.8 rushing attempts, and 0.75 targets per game. That is a total of ~9.5 opportunities per game, and last week he had 13 in an expanded role.
Hill is a top-seven TE for Week 9.
Check out all of the Fantasy Life Rankings!
🎤 George Kittle mic'd up is the best. "Hahaha, I got you so good."
👋 Bye-bye, Dan Snyder? It could happen & Matthew is thrilled about it.
🤔 Should you fade Jalen Hurts in DFS tonight? There is an argument to be made.
😎 It's time to trade for Dameon Pierce. Dwain McFarland explains.
🐬 The Dolphins crush trades. Look at this haul.
🤣 Tweet of the year. Lmao.
⚠️ The Seahawks are back. And this guy kept receipts.
🚑 This doesn't sound good for Keenan Allen. Uh oh.
🏆 Tony Pollard knew he was dominating in fantasy. We love to see it.
😆 Start this WR in all formats. It feels great to be able to say this.
Don't be fooled by the 45-point over/under. Tonight's points will come via the Eagles, who are massive 14-point road favorites vs. the reeling Texans.
As if things couldn't get any worse for the Texans, they will be without WR Nico Collins. Also, keep an eye on Brandin Cooks. There are rumblings he might refuse to play as he angles for a release from the team.
Here's everything we like tonight from a fantasy, DFS, and betting perspective:
Our research for these plays comes from, Run the Sims, Props.cash (Use promo code LIFE to save 20% on your subscription), PFF, OWS, and the Fantasy Life Rankings, Start/Sit tool, and Player Props tool.
Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what Eliot came up with for this week...All odds via BetMGM
🔥 Eagles First Half Team Total Over 14.5 -110 MGM
The fastest-starting team in football this season is the Philadelphia Eagles. Averaging 21 points in the first half, the Eagles have gone over 14.5 points in six of seven games this season. This is no coincidence, it is by design.
The Eagles dominate early to bury opponents. They are one of the top rushing teams in the league and the strategy is to get up big, bleed the clock, and rely on star pass rushers and corners to dominate the second half.
No team has had more time of possession in the first half (57.3%) than the Eagles, while their opponent in the Houston Texans ranks 32nd (44.9%). With the Texans’ abysmal defense (30th in defense DVOA and 32nd in rush DVOA) taking on the Eagles' 3rd-ranked offense, look for Philadelphia to score in bunches early and sail over this number.
🔥 Panthers vs Bengals -7.5 -115 MGM
Buying low on Joe Burrow historically has paid off in a big way.
In his career, Burrow and the Bengals have scored less than 20 points 10 times. In the next game, the Bengals are averaging 31.4 points per game and are 8-1 against the spread.
Even with no Ja’Marr Chase, look for the Bengals' offense to bounce back against the Panthers.
While the Panthers’ offensive struggles get the most headlines, their defense ranks 27th in DVOA against the pass and 23rd at generating pressure. Keeping Burrow clean will be the key to success for the Bengals. Burrow’s completion percentage rises from 49.1% to 73.6%, and his yards per attempt rise from 6 to 8 when he is kept clean, per PFF.
If the Bengals' offensive trends follow suit in a bounce-back game, the Panthers are in trouble. Since 2020 they are just 6-24 against the spread when their opponents score 17 or more points.
Don't forget to track all your bets with Pikkit, which automatically syncs with the places you make bets so you never have to manually input anything:
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Nov 3, 2022
