đ¨ Should We Care About October's Weather...In July?!?
Maybe if we just think about the cold months ahead, itâll cool down a bitâŚ
In todayâs Fantasy Life Newsletter:
- What Matters When Talking About the Wind
- What Now?! Itâs draft szn, baby!
- Weâre Back! Fantasy Life returns to Sirius XM today!
- ADP Misprices: 6 Guys You Donât Want to Avoid
- Itâs 7/5. Take it away, Chris AllenâŚ
I started writing about weather effects nearly five years ago and the vibes on Sunday mornings are still the same: high winds cause panic in the streets.
We remember that time Mac Jones only threw three passes, or the time neither Justin Fields nor Josh Allen could eclipse 200 passing yards with the wind whipping through Soldier Field. For most, itâs like a cognitive bias that kicks in when a discussion about bad weather pops up.
And normally, I wouldnât worry about how we should adjust to contests with strong gusts or high air currents in early July. I mean, we were all grilling meat and watching fireworks just yesterday. As of right now, I canât even forecast which players will be on the field let alone what the weather will be like.
But since weâre so starved to find an edge in Underdogâs Best Ball Mania IV contest, the potential for wind and rain along the coasts has some rethinking their draft strategies. Luckily, Iâve been doing some research on the subject and found a couple of things that do matter when thinking about the weather.
đ Timing
The weather can shift at any point, but subjectively, we associate worse playing conditions with the fall and winter months. Rain turns to snow and soon after weâve got bigger problems on our hands, like if our players can make it to the stadium and play. Coincidentally, historical trends line up with our feelings about the weather during the final few months of the year.
When games were played at 15+ mph windspeeds (2018-2022)
On one hand, the increased likelihood of running into a matchup with winds over 15 mph while dealing with bye weeks makes redraft leagues all the more difficult. Itâs not to say youâre doomed for that week, but it does make best ball leagues seem even more convenient.
On the other hand, the early weeks and playoff time periods have worked out for fantasy purposes. Using game totals and their projections, more contests with winds over 15 mph met expectations during the tail end of the season than during the middle.
- Early Season: 13 of 19 games (68.4%) hit the Over
- Mid Season (70 games): 35.7%
- Playoffs (15 games): 46.7%
In short, timing is everything. Regardless, a bad weather report should force us to further evaluate our players, their projections, and how they win in order to override any concerns about the weather. But there is another component to consider.
đ Location
Stadiums can serve two functions. The first is why theyâre built: for us to sit in and watch the game. They can also act as a natural barrier against the elements, and some do it better (or worse) than others.
Weâve seen kickers have a tough time at Gillette Stadium with its north end open for gusts to send the ball anywhere. Meanwhile, the Giants hosted the Lions with 21 mph winds in the area, and it looked like a regular day as Jamaal Williams plowed ahead for three scores. So stadiums can play a (small) role and one spot stuck out.
FirstEnergy Stadium stands at 171 feet, and weâve got a decent sample size of bad-weather games over the last five years to get a feel for what to expect. With names and fantasy ranks, we can start to see who we can rely on when the wind picks up.
- 2019, Week 6: Baker Mayfield: QB7, Russell Wilson: QB3
- 2020, Week 8: Mayfield: QB16, Derek Carr: QB12
- 2021, Week 6: Mayfield QB17, Kyler Murray: QB4
- 2021, Week 7: Case Keenum: QB15, Teddy Bridgewater QB14
- 2021, Week 18: Keenum: QB20, Brandon Allen QB34
- 2022, Week 3: Jacoby Brissett: QB10, Mitch Trubisky: QB15
- 2022 Week 16: Deshaun Watson: QB18, Andy Dalton: QB31
Murray and the 2019 version of Russ (who was sixth in QB rushing) stick out among the passers fighting against the wind. Even Baker had to boogie 35 yards and a score to save his day against the Seahawks. Regardless, how teams fare at each location can also give us a glimpse into which players to bet on when the weather doesnât go our way.
Welcome, degenerates. We donât unplug just because the NFL does. Youâre reading this newsletter because youâre here for the long haul. âWhat now, Cooter?â Each week Iâll break down ways to survive the off-season.
What Now? Itâs Draft SZN, Baby!
What now? WHAT DO YOU MEAN âWHAT NOWâ? This is what weâve been waiting for!
We made it! Itâs draft szn, baby!
Redraft connoisseurs are tuning back in and we can finally rest easy knowing that draft season is right around the corner. Itâs time to actually get back into the swing of things. So letâs make sure weâre ready:
đ Take Inventory
Your spouse will likely be asking how many leagues youâre in come August, so just go ahead and calculate it now. Youâve got your home league, your work league, your Twitter league, your dyna-
JustâŚfigure out how many leagues youâre going to be in for 2023.
Rip the bandaid off now. And leave a little bit of wiggle room just in case you want to join one more before kickoff at 8:20 EST on September 7th.
PSA: Best-ball doesnât count in our final tallies. We set those and absolutely forget those. No need to report those numbers to corporate.
And while weâre taking inventory⌠Go ahead and get a head count of everyone that will be returning to your leagues. No one wants to have to scrounge around for a league-mate replacement the week before the draft.
đľ Pay Your Debts
If your league has a loser punishment (and it shouldâŚ), itâs time the loser pays up. Seriously, itâs been months.
You lost, you frickin loser. And now, you must be punished. Follow through.
Oh, and while weâre talking about paying up⌠Start saving now so you can pay those league dues on time. Donât make your commissioner have to remind you with some weird âpay meâ playlist.
đ Get the Skeletons Out of the Closets
Itâs time to start stocking up on ammo⌠the emotional kind. Itâs time to refresh your memory, because youâll need to remind your league soon. Trash talk doesnât always come easy - stock up now!
Who came in 12th? They need weekly reminders.
Who committed massive waiver wire blunders? We should talk about it in the group chat.
Who blew all of their FAAB way too early? Show them the screenshots. It was bad.
Who traded away Jamaal Williams after Week 6 and missed out on all of those juicy rushing TDs? Donât let them live it down.
Weâre here for a good time, not a nice time.
đ§ Stand Out
August brings us all the promises of a fresh start, but itâs also a time to stand out from your peers. Now, more than ever.
Curate the perfect team name. Start making your list of âmy guysâ that you refuse to miss out on during the draft. Re-subscribe to all of your favorite fantasy football podcasts.
As the kids would say, âIf you donât stand for something, youâll fall for another aging RB in the early rounds.â
đ Looking for the hottest fantasy sports show on Sirius XM? Look no further!
â Apparently sports rivalries exist past the grave. Some things are more sacred than life itself.
đ Truly a peak athletic performance. How much could you eat?
đş Hunting for $3 million dollars. Draft with Ian & Matt at 4pm ET.
đŻ Looks like Jared Goff and his WR1 are in sync. An underrated duo in the making.
đ¤ One million dollars or try and gain five yards for $10 million? Iâd rather take the million and keep my health.
đ This QB is on the rise. Are you drafting him?
đ We found the best TEs. No, we canât quit Kyle Pitts yet.
One part of the fantasy football rankings process that is an unfortunate reality is that rankers arenât incentivized to make any sort of meaningful stands against average draft position (ADP). Everyone becomes a value at some point; being âcompletely out no matter whatâ on anybody is nonsense.
I am certainly mindful of ever-evolving ADP while updating Fantasy Life fantasy rankings, but the following six players are just so cheap that I continue to have a really hard time moving them any lower in the ranks despite my high personal rankings.
Donât hate the player; hate the ADP â and I LOVE the current ADP on the following talents.
Colts QB Anthony Richardson
- ADP: QB11 (pick 99.7)
- Ianâs rank: QB10 (85)
The simple fact of the matter with Richardson comes down to whether or not you think the freakiest athlete weâve ever seen play the position will be used as an especially high-volume rusher in an offense led by head coach Shane Steichen â AKA Jalen Hurtsâ former offensive coordinator.
If your answer to that question is yes, then Richardsonâs current ADP looks like a smashing value, especially if Steichen takes a page out of the Eaglesâ 2022 playbook and features the 6â4, 244-pound monster on âtush pushâ QB sneaks.
While itâs (sadly) possible Gardner Minshew gets the initial nod under center, 21 of 26 rookie QBs drafted inside the top-10 picks have gone on to start at least 10 games (average 12.1) since 2010.
Itâs a matter of when â not if â Richardsonâs dual-threat talents are unleashed at the professional level. The rookie profiles as the sort of asset capable of working as a great fantasy QB even if it takes a bit for him to become a competent real-life passer.
Not drafting one of the elite options in the first four-to-five rounds can leave your QB position low on big-time upside â Richardson is one of the very few later-round options available who could quickly find themselves in that same early-round conversation this time next year.
Commanders RB Antonio Gibson
- ADP: RB32 (pick 101.1)
- Ianâs rank: RB28 (92)
There are three key variables that have caused me to draft Gibson more than any RB not named Jaylen Warren:
Newfound pass-game opportunity: Longtime scat back J.D. McKissic remains an unrestricted free agent. He trailed only Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in targets per game from 2020 to 2022. New OC Eric Bienemy helped oversee a Chiefs offense that fed Jerick McKinnon 71 targets last season.
Lack of incoming competition: Washington only added sixth-rounder Chris Rodriguez to the RB room. The grinder caught just 20 passes in five seasons at Kentucky and is a far bigger threat to Brian Robinsonâs early-down work than anything.
The steady drumbeat of good news: Last August, Gibson truthers were forced to stomach updates that the former third-round pick was suddenly facing a new reality as a return specialist. Suddenly, head coach Ron Rivera canât stop finding different good things to say about the teamâs 25-year-old back.
The floor for Gibson is as a PPR-friendly RB3 inside of a bad Washington offense.
The ceiling, if Robinson misses time, is as a poor manâs CMC â except this time Washington might really mean it.
Steelers WR Diontae Johnson
- ADP: WR32 (pick 62.9)
- Ianâs rank: WR28 (54)
The rationale for fading Johnson at his currently depressed ADP has to come down to people (not me) believing that the 27-year-old WR is not good at football.
A few pieces of evidence that scholars (me) have compiled in an effort to refute this outrageous claim:
Johnsonâs scoreless 2022 campaign didnât provide high-end counting stats, but his first read target share and overall WR score (ESPN) put him in the company of guys like Stefon Diggs, Tyler Lockett and Tee Higgins.
One only needs to go back 12 months to find a rather awesome 107-1161-8 campaign (WR8 in PPR points per game) that featured plenty of borderline erotic route-running ability.
The Steelers signed up to pay Johnson $18.355 million per year â more than all but 13 players at the position.
Noted WR guru Matt Harmonâs Reception Perception profile of Johnson demonstrates just how good the veteran still was last season.
Priced far closer to this 2022 floor as opposed to his 2020 and 2021 ceiling, Johnson is my most-drafted WR this offseason and profiles as one of fantasyâs cheapest potential target hogs at the position.
Read On For Three More Players Ian Canât Stop Drafting!
