⛳ Showdown at Sawgrass

One does not simply walk into TPC Sawgrass. Its 17th hole is guarded by more than just water …

In today’s Betting Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

Call it the fifth major, call it a signature tournament, call it the toughest field in golf … but whatever way you slice it, THE PLAYERS Championship is, hands down, one of the best events of the season. It’s a week where an elite field competes on a venue in TPC Sawgrass that presents danger at every angle. 

Sawgrass is so volatile that many top players have missed the cut multiple times at this event, and some have seen the weekend in less than 50% of their starts.

With such a big-time tournament and unique setup, it’s always good to brush up your knowledge base a little before the betting (degeneracy) begins. Below, I’ve included a few top trends and notes about this week’s venue to be aware of before we dive into the bets.

🏇 It’s a Course for Horses

I don’t bet solely based on trends, but in certain spots, trends can be sticky. That’s particularly true for events like THE PLAYERS that use the same venue each year. 

• 14 of the last 15 winners had finished 23rd or better at THE PLAYERS in a previous season (exception: Scheffler 2023, previous best T55)

Outside of Scheffler last year, winners of this event have shown some upside at the course in at least one start (generally in the form of a top-20 or better finish).

🗡️ Don’t Chase Falling Knives

Recent form — respect it.

• The last seven winners of THE PLAYERS finished T33 or better in their final start (before winning THE PLAYERS). Six of the last seven finished T22 or better.

• 10 of the last 12 winners of THE PLAYERS had already achieved a T4 or better finish on the PGA TOUR in the same calendar year (e.g. January onward).

It’s not that good players who are slumping can’t come alive at this event, but the winners have almost always been classy players coming in with superb recent form. 

🐶 The Underdogs Can Bark

While the winners at TPC Sawgrass the last four seasons have been the cream of the crop, here are a few names that have finished T8 or better at this event since 2019:

• David Lingmerth

• Anirban Lahiri

• Kevin Kisner

• Jim Furyk

• Russell Knox

• Doug Ghim

• Lee Westwood

• Eddie Pepperell

• Brandt Snedeker

• Justin Rose (x2)

An eclectic group at best, with several players who were well into their 40s at the time of their big week (Furyk was 48 when he finished runner-up to Rory McIlroy in 2019). It’s worth noting for placement and each-way betting that big longshots have often thrived at this volatile stage, in one form or another.

🎯 Will Zalatoris (DraftKings) 

• +3500 Outright (play to +3000)

• +650 Top-5

If we’re fading Scottie Scheffler this week then I like starting with Will Zalatoris, who is now available at a very palatable +3500 on DraftKings. A winner at TPC Southwind, he’s got the precision off the tee and throughout his approach game to deal with Sawgrass’ numerous doglegs and quirky layout. His putting has shown vast improvement since switching to a broomstick, and his short game may still be a bit underrated by the market. 

He’s finished T21 and T26 at Sawgrass (and played through injury in 2023 to a T73 finish), and his recent form is fantastic. He’s finished T2 and T4 finishes over his last two starts and has possessed the solo lead on the weekend in each of his last two events. He’s a player who looks primed to break through soon, and at 6x the odds of Scheffler, looks like a decent value this week.

🥇 Aaron Rai (DraftKings)

• +8000 first-round leader

• +750 top-10 after first round

The last four seasons have seen first-round leaders come exclusively out of the early morning wave, and the majority came with outright odds of +6000 or bigger. Rai is a solid iron player who has an early tee time on Thursday and has finishes of T19 and T23 over his last couple of starts. 

He’s also no stranger to starting fast, posting rounds of 65 and 66 to begin play at the Sony Open and Farmers in January.

With his outright number above 75-1 and his top-10 odds at +750 or better, he’s the kind of player we want to be targeting in this market, at the kind of odds that have produced a winner in this market the past few years.

🤑 North Carolina Residents, It’s Time!

Sports Betting is Finally Here!

You don’t have to wait any longer because you can start betting today on BetMGM.

Register NOW and get in on all of the fun with BetMGM’s New Customer Offer! Bet $5, get $150 in Bonus Bets!

Don’t live in North Carolina? Doesn’t matter because ALL new customers get the same offer!

It’s so simple, sign up for BetMGM here and you’ll receive $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5, that’s it.

Just in time for the college basketball tournament and the start of the baseball season!!! What could be better than that?

NC Responsible Gaming Disclaimer: See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. NC only. New Customer Offer (If applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. Gambling problem? Call 877-718-5543 or visit morethanagame.nc.gov.

🎧 Need more golf bets? Of course you do. Our PLAYERS Championship pod has all the info.

📈 Number two with a bullet. Jayden Daniels is on the rise.

😴 44 sleeps till Draft day. Our Bet Tracker has you covered.

🙄 Do something!! The Cowboys’ lack of signings may have spooked the market. 

😬 State of the QB union. The places for Justin Fields to land a starting job are shrinking.

👇 How low can they go? Unders in the NBA are raking.

🗽 If you don’t Anunoby, now you knowby. The Knicks have been on a tear for bettors thanks to one OG.

✍️ Bah Gawd that’s … Brian Harman’s music? The most tipped golfers for the week. 

⛅ Early risers only. This PLAYERS Championship trend favors a certain tee time. 

The sports calendar is slowly heating up. We’re in the middle of conference championship week for college basketball, and the PGA TOUR has one of the biggest events on its calendar. With MLB Opening Day right around the corner, we’ve almost made it through the doldrums of the post-NFL season.

That said, the NBA remains king on Wednesday. With 10 games to choose from, there are plenty of opportunities to look for value in the betting market. Matt LaMarca breaks down a few of his favorite wagers …

🚗 Pistons (-3.5) vs. Raptors (-105; Caesars)

Break up the Pistons? After covering as home favorites vs. the Hornets on Monday, I’m going right back to the well on Wednesday. Don’t get me wrong, Detroit is still a bad team, but they are playing some of their best basketball of the season. They’ve won three of their past seven games, and they’re 22nd in Net Rating over that time frame.

On the other hand, the Raptors are headed in the wrong direction. They’re dead last in Net Rating over their past seven contests, winning just one of them. Most of that poor production stems from the injury report. The team was already playing without Scottie Barnes, while R.J. Barrett, Gary Trent Jr., and Immanuel Quickley have been out of the lineup of late.

There’s a chance that Trent and Quickley suit up on Wednesday, but with the Raptors out of postseason contention, there’s no need to rush them back. Even if they do play, you could argue that the Pistons have more talent. It doesn’t feel great laying points with a team as bad as Detroit, but they’re the clear sharp target in this matchup. The spread has already increased from Pistons -1.5 to Pistons -3.5, so I think they cover for the second straight game.

⬇️ Nicolas Claxton Under 9.5 rebounds (-110; BetMGM)

Claxton has become a solid starting center in his fifth professional season, averaging 12.3 points and 9.8 rebounds per game. He’s been particularly effective on the glass of late, racking up at least 10 boards in four straight contests.

However, he’s going to face a stiff test on Wednesday vs. the Magic. Orlando has played at the fifth-slowest pace this season, and they also rank fifth in team rebound rate. That’s a bad combination for rebounding purposes. The Magic allow the fewest rebounds per game, including the fifth-fewest boards to opposing centers.

Claxton has already faced the Magic three times this season, and he’s had seven boards or fewer in each matchup. Part of that stems from all three games turning into blowouts, but I’m willing to bet on Claxton going under once again. The Paydirt DFS player prop simulations have Claxton going under 68.3% of the time, which is more than good enough for a bet at -110.