If “Game 7” is the best two words in sports, “Game 6” can’t be far behind.
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM.
NBA Friday: Can the Clippers bounce back?
UFC 301: Best bets for Rio de Janerio.
NHL Playoffs: Target the Predators at home.
It’s 5/3. Take it away, Matt LaMarca
We’re still in the first round of the NBA postseason, but the second round officially kicks off on Saturday. That means it’s time to dive back into the series market.
We eeked out a small profit with our Round 1 series bets, winning with the Nuggets, Celtics, and Mavericks-Clippers Over while losing with the Suns and 76ers.
Two of the four second-round series have yet to be finalized, but that doesn’t stop me from having positions:
☘️ Celtics -2.5 games vs. Cavaliers/Magic — Price TBD
You can basically copy and paste this bet through the entire Eastern Conference portion of the playoffs. No team in the East can match up with Boston, particularly with the 76ers now watching from home. It doesn’t matter if it ends up being the Cavs or Magic; this series should be over quickly.
🐺 Timberwolves +1.5 games vs. Nuggets (-128; FanDuel)
The Nuggets are clear favorites in this series, but I have concerns after their first-round showing vs. the Lakers. They trailed for the majority of that series, and they’re not as deep as last year without Bruce Brown. This Timberwolves team is for real, combining the best defense in the league with a legit alpha in Anthony Edwards. It would not shock me if they pulled off the upset, but I’ll take the +1.5 games line for some added security.
🗽 Knicks -1.5 games vs. Pacers (-125; DraftKings)
No disrespect to the Pacers, but this series should feel like a walk in the park after a grueling showdown with the 76ers. The Knicks are simply too physical for this team, and I expect them to get the job done in six games or less.
As for the last series, that depends on what happens between the Clippers and Mavericks. Speaking of which, that game leads off my favorite bets for Friday’s slate.
✂️ Los Angeles Clippers +8.0 at Dallas Mavericks (-105; Caesars)
The Clippers were run out of the building in Game 5, with the Mavs handing them the biggest postseason loss in franchise history. That game was played in Los Angeles, and with the series now shifting back to Dallas, it’s easy to say their season is over. That’s particularly true with Kawhi Leonard still out of the lineup with a knee injury.
Still, I think the Clippers still have some fight left in them. James Harden and Paul George were a combined 6-25 from the field and 3-13 from 3-point range in Game 5, and both players should be better in Game 6. Russell Westbrook was also 2-11 from the field, so it was a pretty poor shooting night for the team overall.
The other games in this series have all been highly competitive. Games 2 and 4 were decided by a combined eight points, so I think this number is a bit inflated by the Game 5 blowout. The sharps seem to agree, with the Clippers getting 50% of the dollars on just 10% of the bets (per the Action Network). I’m not sure if the Clippers can beat the Mavericks at this point, but I think this game should be much closer.
More Bets for Friday’s NBA Slate
🌹 Racing into History: The 150th Kentucky Derby
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🥊 UFC 301 takes place in Rio de Janeiro this Saturday. How to profit off what could be a drawn-out main event.
⚾ Safe or out? Pete Crow-Armstrong broke out a slide that left baseball fans questioning the rules.
💎 Speaking of baseball…we have bets for Friday’s slate of MLB action.
👋 The 76ers were 86ed by the Knicks. For many bettors, the result was a welcome one.
📝 Should Shedeur Sanders be the 1.01? Way-too-early 2025 NFL mock draft.
💸 This bettor needed one more Joel Embiid point for the monster cash. He didn’t get it and had to settle for a fun story instead.
7️⃣ Leafs. Bruins. Game 7. AGAIN. For the third time since 2018, the Bruins and Leafs will face off in a first-round Game 7.
😐 Always bet responsibly. For some of us, that rule hits differently than it does for others.
🏇 The 150th Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday. Matthew Freedman and Duane Colucci break down everything you need to know.
The NHL has two crucial Game 6s going off tonight. Both the Predators and Golden Knights are down 3-2 in their respective series and will look to stave off elimination at home. Do we back the desperate squads or ride with the teams with the upper hand? Geoff Ulrich gives his take below.
🐆 Predators Win in Regulation (+130; bet365)
I wrote about the Predators earlier in the week and how I thought they had a realistic shot to push this series to seven games after a heartbreaking Game 4 loss. They had played the Canucks even in most areas before getting down 3-1, with their main deficiency being a couple of late-game breaks not going their way and an ice-cold power play.
Things finally shifted for them in Game 5. They got a late power-play goal from Roman Josi and a vintage performance in net from Jusse Saros (.950 SV%). By failing to close Nashville out in Game 5 (a game where they had a one-goal lead with less than 10 minutes left) the Canucks are also now stuck with a massive decision in net for Game 6. Casey DeSmith is nearly 100% healthy and likely ready to play, but third-stringer Arturs Silovs (.904 SV%) has made two solid starts in a row.
Both goalies have clear deficiencies. DeSmith is a career backup and coming in cold, while Silovs has made just 11 career NHL starts with middling numbers. Neither of these teams allows a ton of quality scoring chances, but I think the volatility in net for Vancouver means there is a decent chance the Predators win this game big.
As a result, I don’t mind taking on a bit more risk by going with the regulation line. It’s still available at +130 on bet365 and provides a lot more upside than the current -130 prices on the 2-way moneyline.
🌟 Stars Moneyline (-114; FanDuel)
Dallas is still available at nearly the same price they were before Game 4, which seems like a mistake to me.
Despite losing the first two games, the Stars have dominated this series. They’ve been far better at creating chances at 5v5, ranking first in xGF% in the playoffs. Their special teams, which started slow, have now produced three power-play goals in their last two games, and their goaltending has done a complete 180. Jake Oettinger, who allowed four goals on 15 shots in the opener, has now posted a SV% of .920 or better in four straight games and hasn’t allowed a 3rd-period goal all series.
I’ve bet the Stars three games in a row now (all bets that were logged beforehand in the FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker), and nothing about those wins would put me off betting them again in Game 6. With this game still hovering close to pick’em status, I’ll happily take the superior squad in Dallas to complete the quadfecta.
