In today’s Fantasy Life newsletter, presented by Paramount+:
- WEEK 3 IS HERE
- Morning Download: No Jaylen Waddle
- QUICK HITTER: A bet from our friends at Hammer
- The ‘chopper drops down with a must-play WR
- Bets From The Group Chat: Dialing up the degens
- Hidden Gems: 2 RBs to scroll down for
- It's 9/24. Take it away, Peter Overzet.
I wish I could say we made it to Week 3 unscathed, but that’s certainly not the case with the injuries mounting.
We made it nonetheless, though. And there are multiple games with big fantasy implications today.
Let’s dig into everything you need to know before setting your lineup…
🍿 The Game Of The Week
There’s only one game this week that:
- Projects to score over 50 points
- Has zero weather concerns
- Features two teams who are desperate for a win:
This Chargers/Vikings matchup is a “fire the cannons” spot–aka if you have players in this game, you need to be starting them in your leagues.
Pat Kerrane wrote up why Jordan Addison is ready to explode, James McCool explained why Kirk Cousins double stacks look sharp in DFS, and I flagged Joshua Kelley as a bounce-back hidden gem (more on him below).
Let’s put it another way–this game forecasts as such a shootout that you can even start the “down-so-bad” Alexander Mattison as a solid RB2 today because Cam Akers will not be active:
⏱️ It’s Now or Never For The Browns
On the other side of the coin, the game with the second-lowest total on the slate (you can thank Zach Wilson for the lowest) feels like a make-or-break week for the struggling Cleveland Browns, and more specifically, Deshaun Watson:
As Dwain noted in his rankings write-up on Wednesday, Watson is “hanging on a thread” to remain in the QB1 conversation, but this sets up as a prime opportunity to get back on track:
“The Titans allow the fifth most passing yards per game at 282 and rank 15th in passing TDs allowed per game at 1.5. Of course, this isn’t a new development. The Titans were among the worst secondaries in 2022, and the trend continues in 2023.”
Dwain McFarland
The Titans have actually been stout against the run (they bottled up popular plays like Jamaal Williams in Week 1 and Kelley in Week 2), which sets up a “pass funnel” dynamic for opposing teams.
Justin Herbert threw the ball 41 times last week against this secondary with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams combining for 16 catches.
Jerome Ford, who will take over for the injured Nick Chubb, still ranks as a fringe RB2 for us thanks to the projectable volume, but I’d prefer to play the Browns through the passing game and hope that Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore can replicate what the Chargers duo did last week:
If Watson and co. can’t take advantage of this spot, it’s likely time to move on from this snake-bitten franchise for fantasy purposes.
One silver lining to this Browns’ mess? Chubb miraculously avoided a torn ACL and his projected recovery time is only 6-8 months.
🛠️ Everything you need for Week 3
Read on for more info in the Morning Download on Joe Burrow, Jaylen Waddle, and Aaron Jones, as well as updates in the Watercooler on Bryce Young and Austin Ekeler.
For everything else you need for Week 3—including our Inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates—you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:
👀 How Did You Watch the Best Games From Week Two?!
If the answer wasn't Paramount+, you're doing it wrong!
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1:00 pm ET Kick-Off
- Buffalo at Washington
- New England at NY Jets
- Tennessee at Cleveland
- Indianapolis at Baltimore
- Denver at Miami
4:05 pm ET Kick-Off
- Carolina at Seattle
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There’s always a flurry of overnight news to process on Sunday mornings. Matt LaMarca is here to catch you up on the most important updates to guide your lineup decisions today…
The NFL news cycle never stops spinning. Official injury reports come out on Friday, but that doesn’t mean that nothing happens on Saturday.
We will often get insight into what direction each questionable player is leaning toward, which can help us make smarter decisions for fantasy purposes and in the betting market.
Let’s dive into some of the biggest developments from Saturday.
✍️ Bengals Sign A.J. McCarron to Practice Squad
This is a big one. Joe Burrow reportedly re-aggravated his calf injury last week vs. the Ravens, putting his status in doubt for Monday Night Football vs. the Rams. He was able to get in a limited practice on Friday and is officially listed as questionable, but all the evidence points towards him sitting.
For starters, the line movement on this game has skewed massively in the Rams’ favor. The Bengals opened up as 6.5-point favorites, but they’re down to just -2.5 on BetMGM.
Now, the Bengals have signed McCarron to the practice squad, and it would not be surprising if he was elevated to the active roster. He hasn’t seen NFL action since 2020, but he had 2,150 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, and six interceptions in the XFL.
The fact that the Bengals are the last game of the week further complicates this matter for fantasy purposes. You’re not going to get a final verdict on Burrow until after most of the other games have concluded, so you likely won’t have an alternate.
Given the line movement and McCarron signing, I’d get Burrow out of my lineups. If you have another viable option who plays on Sunday, making the swap feels like a wise decision.
🐬 Jaylen Waddle Ruled Out
Waddle was able to practice on a limited basis on Friday, which provided some optimism for his status vs. the Broncos. He earned a questionable designation, but unfortunately, Waddle will not suit up.
The big winner here is clearly Tyreek Hill.
Hill is already one of the most high-volume receivers in football – he has a 33% target share and 46% air yards share for the season – and those numbers should only increase without his star running mate.
The question is – who else should get a bump?
Braxton Berrios has operated as the team’s clear No. 3 receiver this season, so he’s a candidate for a few additional targets.
Durham Smythe also becomes a viable punt play at tight end. He owns a 94% route participation for the season, so he’s been on the field in nearly all passing situations.
📉 Aaron Jones Looking Doubtful
The situation with Jones looks very similar to the Burrow situation in Cincinnati. Fortunately, the Packers play at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, so we’ll have plenty of time to make adjustments to our lineups if needed.
That said, I’m pretty skeptical about Jones returning to the lineup in Week 3.
He missed last week’s contest vs. the Falcons, which allowed AJ Dillon to take on a larger workload. His rushing share increased from 43% in Week 1 to 75% in Week 2, and he should see similar utilization if Jones is out once again.
That didn’t translate into much production – he had 15 carries for 55 yards – but the opportunity for a bigger game is present.
The Saints’ defense is a very tough matchup, but Dillon becomes a volume-based RB2 if Jones is ultimately ruled out. He’s currently the No. 31 running back in our Week 3 rankings, but expect him to move up if Jones is officially inactive.
Our friends over at The Hammer Betting Network have been adding their favorite Week 3 bets to our Free Bet Tracker. Bringing you one of the latest from Fabian Sommer…
🐬 In a pinch at WR this week? Try this deep sleeper.
💰 100% free, straight to your inbox, for every NFL betting slate..sound familiar? *Insert spiderman pointing.gif*
🚁 The WR going for 7-138-2 today. The chopper has spoken.
🤲 This catch is INSANE. Someone check those gloves!
📺 Looking for last-minute Week 3 action? Join our betting team LIVE.
🚑️ It could be the Andy Dalton show for a few weeks. Bummer news for the Panthers.
🐅 Van Jefferson is down unfathomably. He will not be heading into the jungle.
😁 Trent Williams is probably getting fined…and absolutely does not care one bit.
😭 We might not see Austin Ekeler for a few more weeks. Brutal.
📈 How the Niners play to Brock Purdy’s strengths. They make it look easy.
Welcome to Week 3 of Bets from the Group Chat. This is where Geoff elicits as much information as he can from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week. It’s really a selfish endeavor as he’ll probably be using some of their plays to offset his own losers.
Let’s get to it…
📈 Tank Dell Over 3.5 receptions (+130, BetMGM)
One of the more under-the-radar stories from Week 2 was the emergence of Dell as a near-every-down player. He led the team in targets and had a snap rate above 80%. Further, Dell was productive. A 70% catch rate with a TD and 72 yards is a nice day all things considered, especially from a receiver playing in just his second NFL game.
The set-up for this week also reeks of another 40+ pass attempts from C.J. Stroud.
Denzel Perryman, Jalen Pitre, Tavierre Thomas, and Derek Stingley are all out for Houston on defense and they’re +8.0 underdogs in Jacksonville. On a side note, it might also be a good time to fire up Calvin Ridley's overs.
Dell would be my primary target, though, for props. Despite the heavy usage in Week 2 his reception total remains at just 3.5 and the over has been sitting at heavy plus odds since release – rare, as overs tend to get bet more heavily and often end up with heavy juice.
📉 Adam Thielen Under 17.5 longest reception (-105, BetMGM)
Objectively, this is one of those lines that makes no sense.
Thielen enters this game with a 5.58-yard aDOT and a seasonal line of 9 receptions for 66 yards (7.33 yards per catch for the math guys). Despite playing over 85% of the snaps in each of the Panthers’ first two games, his longest reception on the season is just 15 yards.
Thielen’s a pure possession receiver at this point and has never ventured much past 10 yards over the line of scrimmage on any of his routes in 2023. For betting, I would rather be on the side of that not changing in Week 3, than the opposite (Thielen finds the fountain of youth on his way to Seattle).
The Panthers also have a plethora of young receivers, like Laviska Shenault Jr. and Terrace Marshall, who they may start giving more snaps to as they try to improve on their 4.1 yards per play mark – second worst in the league.
📊 Quick Hitters from the Fantasy Life Free Bet Tool:
In case you didn’t know, we also have a Free NFL Bet Tracker up on Fantasy Life as well. It’s FREE and there are always bets (with reasoning) posted for every game/slate.
✍️ Matt LaMarca Likes: Steelers’ money line
✍️ Matt Freedman Likes: Tyler Allgeier over 41.5 rush yards
This makes plenty of sense.
Atlanta’s offense has a ton of scripted run plays every week and Allgeier hasn’t gone under this number since Week 10 of 2022.
✍️ Geoff Ulrich Likes: Jordan Love over 0.5 Ints
Love has had it easy thus far facing a couple of poor secondaries and D-Lines who aren’t good at bringing pressure. He’s also had a couple of passes dropped by defenders.
Everyone knows the best plays. Jalen Hurts, Christian McCaffrey, Justin Jefferson, Travis Kelce. But what about the sleepers no one else is on? Those are the guys that can vault you to the top of the leaderboard. In this weekly piece, Pete will go treasure hunting for Hidden Gems that you can draft in Battle Royale contests on Underdog Fantasy and in DFS contests.
Alright, we are now two for two on Hidden Gems calls:
- Week 1: We unearthed one massive Hidden Gem in Brandon Aiyuk, who popped off for 28.9 points.
- Week 2: We called the Lions/Seahawks the matchup to target and the two teams combined for 68 points.
Considering the goal of this piece is to find “hidden gems” (aka longshots) that help vault us to the top of the leaderboards, I’m likely due for some regression.
But as the saying goes, you never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater. And as the other saying goes, you never stop writing a column you’ve committed to writing each week.
So without further adieu, here are my hidden gems for the Week 3 slate that you should consider scrolling down for in Underdog Fantasy’s weekly draft contests or plugging into your DFS lineups.
As always, special thanks to Chad Maschke’s Battle Royale data for giving us drafted percentage numbers.
💪 RBs: Joshua Kelley & Gus Edwards
ADPs: 35+; Drafted less than 10% of the time
We are only two weeks into the season and the RB pool is shrinking quickly as far as finding RBs with true ceilings.
I’d argue outside of the Top 3 RBs on this slate–Tony Pollard, Bijan Robinson, and Travis Etienne–there are legitimate concerns with every other RB surrounding either their projectable volume, talent, or game environment.
This means that RBs 4-12 (who are getting drafted in nearly 100% of drafts) are very risky bets relative to RBs 13-24 (who aren’t always drafted and don’t project that much differently).
Enter Joshua Kelley and Gus Edwards.
Here’s the case for Kelley:
- Austin Ekeler won’t play again this week
- The Chargers have a 27.5-point team total and play in the highest projected scoring game on the slate:
Kelley flopped last week against a tough Titans run defense, but still dominated the backfield snaps and rush attempts.
Similar to the Aiyuk dynamic in Week 1, we can get leverage on the chalkier passing game pieces like Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams, who are getting drafted 100% of the time
Because he burned everyone last week, he will not be popular whatsoever
How to utilize: either as a unique piece in Herbert stacks, as a one-off, or in mini-correlations with a Vikings WR
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Here’s the case for Edwards:
Justice Hill has been ruled out with a toe injury
The Ravens have a 26.75 team total and are 7.5 point home favorites vs. the Colts
He split the snaps and rush attempts with Hill in Week 2 and found the end zone once:
Not only does he have virtually no competition for touches if Hill misses, but this game script sets up for him to get plenty of carries salting the game away in the second half
How to utilize: as a one-off, or in mini-correlations with a Colts WR
More Hidden Gems at QB, WR and TE
