Scottie Scheffler isn’t in the field this week, but I still make him +400 to win.
In today’s Betting Life newsletter:
NBA Wednesday: Expect a low-scoring affair in Boston.
NHL Playoffs: Keep targeting this goal prop in Dallas.
Zurich Classic: Don’t blame Canada. Bet Canada.
It’s 4/24. Take it away, Matt LaMarca…
We finally had a few upsets on Tuesday, with two road teams evening up their series at one game apiece. The Mavericks managed to beat the Clippers despite Kawhi Leonard’s return to the lineup, while the Pacers bounced back with a win over the Bucks. The Suns were the only road team that couldn’t get the job done, losing by double figures to the Timberwolves once again.
Wednesday’s slate features just two contests, and both No. 1 seeds will be in action. The Celtics will take the floor as massive favorites vs. the Heat, while the Thunder will host the Pelicans in Oklahoma City.
In addition to the home team domination, unders have been the big storyline this postseason. The under is now 11-3 through the first 14 games, and including the play-in tournament, the under has gone 15-5. First-half unders have been particularly strong, going 75-38-3 in the first round and play-in tournament since 2021.
Will the scoring start to pick up? Will the home teams continue to dominate? Let’s dive into my favorite options for Wednesday’s slate.
☘️ Celtics vs. Heat Under 204.0 (-108; FanDuel)
I’m not a huge believer in trends for basketball purposes. Unless you realize a trend really early, it’s likely already being priced into the line.
That said, the sharps seem to like the under in both of Wednesday’s contests. Both figures have come down a few points since opening, and there are plenty of reasons to like the under in Boston.
For starters, Game 1 of this series was played at a snail’s pace. This series currently ranks dead last in pace for the postseason, which is not a huge surprise with Miami involved. They were 29th in pace during the regular season, and without Jimmy Butler, they’re going to be forced to play even slower. The Celtics have one of the best defenses in basketball – they were second in defensive efficiency during the regular season – so the Heat are going to have to spend a lot of time searching for offense without their best player.
Miami’s offense is also going to struggle to score without Butler. They managed just 94 points in Game 1, and that somehow still undersells their futility. They scored 35 of those points in the final frame after the game was already well in the balance. During the first three quarters, they managed just 59 points against the Celtics’ stout defense.
Boston can score the ball at will, but they also seem due for a bit of regression. They posted an Offensive Rating of 126.7 in Game 1, and they posted a .610 effective field goal percentage. Both numbers were above their regular season averages, so I’m not expecting another 114 points from them in Game 2. If the Celtics can’t carry the scoring in this series, these games are going to struggle to crack 200 points.
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🏒 NHL Playoff Bets. Robertson offers value as a goal scorer (again).
🔔 Philly not-so-special. Last Two Minute report shows officials missed two fouls and a time-out in a wild sequence at MSG.
🔟 Sometimes, a team just has your number. Jamal Murray’s buzzer-beater extends Nuggets’ winning streak vs. Lakers to 10 straight.
😤 The Pacers break the ice. A home team in the NBA finally lost, and it was the 2021 champions who got dealt the first blow.
🤕 The Canucks may have just become the prey. Thatcher Demko is injured and may not be back before round two.
🤯 Impossible goalie save alert! Sergei Bobrovsky helped steal game Game 2 for Florida with this beauty.
🪖 *Jayden Daniels to Washington hype intensifies* His odds to go No. 2 are the shortest they have ever been.
⚾️ Another full slate of action on the diamond. Best bets for Wednesday’s MLB slate.
No Scheffler, no singles, no fun … right? Wrong! The PGA’s lone team event of the season offers plenty of intrigue and fun duos to choose from as we get 80 teams vying for the win in a very wide-open field (Have I mentioned there is no Scheffler?). Geoff Ulrich breaks down the bets you NEED to be eyeing for the week below, including a massive 66-1 outright play ...
🍁 Nick Taylor / Adam Hadwin Outright (+2800; BetMGM)
One theme we’ve seen over the seasons at this tournament is compatriot pairings having a lot of success. Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel (South Africa) put in multiple big finishes before moving to LIV. Marc Leishman and Cameron Smith (Australia) beat the South Africans in a playoff in 2021.
This season, the Canadian duos look like the pairings with the most promise. While the contrarian in me likes Corey Conners and Taylor Pendrith, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin have been the two most prominent Canadians from a results perspective this season. Taylor already has a win in Phoenix, and Hadwin enters this week with three top-six finishes in 2024 (and four in his last 12 PGA starts). As a result, the gap in odds between these two teams feels like it should be larger than it already is (Conners and Pendrith are at +3000, just a couple of points bigger than Taylor and Hadwin).
Both Taylor and Hadwin have had issues stringing together four solid rounds of late, but their A-games don't seem far away. Hadwin has been starting events strongly, and perhaps having a partner to work off will provide the motivation he needs to put together multiple big rounds this week.
I don’t consider the top teams overly strong (compared to their odds), so this feels like a great price to back this team, which finished at -28 last year in their solo 2nd place finish.
📈 Taylor Montgomery / Ben Griffin (+6600 Each Way 1/4 Top Five; bet365)
If we’re looking for a team with bigger odds that can replicate some of the success longshots Davis Riley and Nick Hardy experienced last season, the duo of Taylor Montgomery and Ben Griffin should be on our shortlist.
Both men have experience playing this event, with Montgomery finishing T19 last season while playing with Kurt Kitayama — who coincidently shunned him this season to play with Collin Morikawa. The good news for Montgomery is that his new partner, Ben Griffin, may be more suited to this venue over the long term. Griffin missed the cut last season (with journeyman Ryan Gerard) but has the kind of higher-end approach game — and putting upside — that often excels around Pete Dye venues. He’s grabbed top-five finishes at the Sanderson Farms, Wyndham Championships, and Bermuda Championships (all over the past two seasons) and typically excels in these weaker field events — where the setups often trend toward lower scoring.
Montgomery has struggled over his last two starts but was T11 at TPC Sawgrass last month (another Dye venue) and is coming off a nice period of rest where he would have (hopefully) been able to reset his long game. Griffin has gained strokes putting and on approach in four straight starts. I like the price on this duo, and while an each-way bet with a placement term of top five or top eight is preferred, they also look like solid plays for the Outright and top 10 markets (+450; bet365).
👬 Kevin Tway / Kelly Kraft Top 20 (+400; DraftKings)
One last theme I like capitalizing on this week: the journeyman veteran combo. Over the past two seasons, here are some of the teams that have paid off with FULL top 20 places at this event:
Sean O’Hair / Brandon Matthews (2023)
Troy Merrit / Robert Streb (2023)
Martin Trainer / Chad Ramey (2023)
Mark Hubbard / Ryan Brehm (2022)
Justin Lower / Dylan Wu (2022)
All these teams had outright odds of 100-1 or greater and paid off for bettors at solid odds in the placing markets. For 2024, the Kevin Tway / Kelly Kraft duo makes plenty of sense to target for a similar result. Tway (who won the Fortinet Championship in 2018) is starting to play better golf and comes in off a T3 in Punta Cana. Kraft is a supreme wild card as he’s only made one start this season but has shown the ability to play well off long stretches of inactivity in the past — and has played this event with Tway six times now (they were T3 in 2017 and T13 in 2019).
Given that we can get this team at +400 on DraftKings (they’re much shorter at most other books), they set up as a decent value prospect for me in the top 20 market.
More ways to attack the Zurich Classic
