In case youâre unaware, a teaser is a type of parlay (and a parlay is a bet composed of smaller bets â or âlegsâ â that all need to hit for the overall position to cash).
Let me walk you through an example.
As I type this sentence (Wed. 10/25 at 3 p.m. ET), Iâm looking at all the odds on DraftKings. The Bills are -8.5 (-110) at home against the Buccaneers for Thursday Night Football. (More on that game later in the newsletter. Thatâs what we call⌠wait for it⌠a tease!) And on Sunday, the Saints are +1.5 (-110) on the road against the Colts.
If we wanted to parlay these two teams at their current lines and odds, DraftKings would give us a payout at +264 if both bets hit. With $100 wagered, weâd get our $100 back plus $264.
But if we want to tease, DraftKings will give us an extra six points on both teams â so weâll get Bills -2.5 and Saints +7.5 â and thatâs fantastic, but in exchange, weâll have far shorter odds (-120). If our ticket cashes, $120 wagered will net our original investment plus just $100.
Essentially, in teasers, weâre buying points from the sportsbook.
đ¤ Is It Worth Buying Points Via Teasers?
Yes, itâs worth sacrificing payout for points⌠as long as we get multiple important points.
With our Bills -2.5 and Saints +7.5 legs, weâre moving through the key numbers of 3 and 7 â the two most important integers in football. Even at -120 odds, this teaser is profitable.
Based on the Unabated Teaser Calculator, this bet has a +3.08% edge â and thatâs based solely on getting through 3 and 7. That doesnât take into account anything to do with the games themselves⌠whether the Bills and Saints are actually good bets.
If they are good bets â if they offer value at their original lines of Bills -8.5 and Saints +1.5 â then this teaser should have an even larger edge.
đŁď¸ Why Does This Matter?
Hereâs why Iâm bringing this up.
This week, we have a lot of games that are in the six-point Wong teaser zone.
Bills -8.5 vs. Buccaneers
Titans +2.5 vs. Falcons
Steelers +2.5 vs. Jaguars
Saints +1.5 at Colts
Ravens -8.5 at Cardinals
Chargers -8.5 vs. Bears
Lions -8 vs. Raiders
Depending on the book youâre looking at, there might even be a couple more games that fall into the +1.5 to +2.5 and -7.5 to -8.5 buckets.
With this many options on the board, teasers are bound to be a âthingâ this week. People will be talking about them on podcasts, writing about them in articles, and betting them with abandon.
To see my projections and get some thoughts on the teaser legs I like more than others, check out my Week 8 Best Bets article.
What are the key numbers in the NFL? Jason Scavone from Unabated talks about how to bet the spreadâŚ
When youâre playing spreads in the NFL, the number you get is critical. But some numbers are more critical than others.
And if you arenât paying laser-focused attention to what lines youâre betting into â and where there might be better alternatives â you arenât going to make it. Betting NFL sides is complicated enough on its own. You canât bring a butter knife to a bazooka fight.
đď¸ What Are the Key Numbers in NFL Betting?
You end up with key numbers in the NFL because of how scoring works: three points for a field goal, six for a touchdown, and points after worth one or two. Throw the occasional safety into the mix.
Not coincidentally, those are the key numbers to look out for. To understand why, we need to know the push probability. In other words, the chance that a game is decided by exactly that number.
3 Points: Itâs worth about 9%. That means if the Seahawks are a three-point favorite over the Browns, thereâs a 9% chance Seattle wins by exactly three.
7 Points: Thereâs around a 6.5% chance the Chiefs beat the Broncos by exactly seven.
6 Points:Last, a game lined at -6 has about a 4.5% chance of falling on that number.
Great call, eagle-eyed and savvy bettor. Thatâs true. You know it. The sportsbooks know it. And the sportsbooks know you know it.
This is why theyâll let you buy onto and off key numbers. Usually, though, for a hefty fee.
Every bet has a price attached (thatâs the â-110â youâll see after a spread), and the hallmark of any good bettor is paying less for your bets than theyâre worth. Your job is to bargain hunt.
3 Points: Almost every book will charge at least 25 cents (some now charge more) to buy from -3 to -2.5 or +3 to +3.5. In other words, if your book offers Seattle -3 at -120, theyâll give you Seattle -2.5 at -145. But the actual value of moving on or off the three is around 19 cents. Youâre paying too much for the half-point when itâs a quarter.
7 Points: Taking -7 to -6.5 should cost about 13 cents, but many sportsbooks will let you do it for just 10 cents. If you can move a +7 (-110) bet to +7.5 (-120), itâs a good value.
6 Points: Moving on or off the -6 should only cost around eight cents. Most sportsbooks will charge you 10. Donât overpay.
đ° The Takeaways
The most obvious conclusion here ties to one of the fundamental axioms of sports betting: Line shopping matters. Here. Weâll say it again, louder for the people in the back: LINE SHOPPING MATTERS.
If two different books are offering Seattle -2.5 (-110) and Seattle -3 (-110), itâs a slam dunk to bet the Seahawks at the first book if you think Seattle is the right side. Always make sure youâre getting the best number on either side of the 3, 6, or 7.
The second important thing to remember is that if youâre buying half points, only do so when the price is right. If you can get the 7 for 10 cents, itâs worth it. If you canât, keep your powder dry.
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Our friends over at The Hammer Betting Network have been adding their favorite Week 8 bets to our Free Bet Tracker. Hereâs one of the latest courtesy of Fabian SommerâŚ
Week 8 kicks off TONIGHT with a heart-palpating interconference matchup matchup between the Bills and Buccaneers. Matt LaMarca is here to break it all down from a betting angleâŚ
The sharps havenât really taken a stand on this game, but the public has been all over the Bills. Buffalo has received 85% of the dollars on just 83% of the bets, causing this number to move from Bills -7.5 to Bills -9.5 across the industry.
Itâs always scary to back such a public team â particularly during an island game â and the public took an absolute beating in Week 7. Teams getting at least 55% of the bet tickets went just 2-7 against the spread and posted the worst ROI of the 2023 season.
However, public teams have actually done pretty well this season on the whole. Teams getting at least 55% of the tickets are 46-34-3 overall, and teams getting at least 65% of the bets are 20-14-2.
I still donât think you want to make a habit of grabbing public teams, but doing it every once in a while probably isnât a death sentence.
The Bills were listed as 10-point favorites when this line was first released, so their recent performances have created a smidge of value in their favor. The team should also be focused after getting upset by the Patriots: theyâre 13-10-2 ATS after a loss with Allen at quarterback.
Unless Mayfield can revert to his early-season form â which stands out as a significant outlier when compared to his overall body of work â I donât see how this game stays competitive.
Allen has been a bit more reluctant to tuck it and run this season than in years past. He averaged 7.1 attempts per game over his first five seasons, resulting in 40.1 yards per game. This season, heâs down to just 4.1 attempts per game, and his rushing average has dipped to 21.1 yards.
Diving into his utilization, his designed rush rate has dipped from 18% in 2022 to just 7% this season, while his scramble rate has remained pretty much the same (8% vs. 7%).
However, Allen did have a season-high seven totes in his last game, but he averaged a subpar 2.4 yards per attempt. Allenâs YPC for his career is 5.6, so he should see some progression in that department moving forward.
We have Allen projected for closer to 26 yards on Thursday, giving him a nice cushion over the FanDuel line of 21.5. With the team losing two of their past three games, donât be surprised if they let Allen off the leash a bit in Week 8.
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