💧 Teasers, Teasers Everywhere

People don’t know this, but Samuel Taylor Coleridge was a big NFL bettor…

In today’s Betting Life Newsletter presented by Unabated:

• Everybody Loves a Tease: They’re all the rage in Week 8!
• Key Numbers: Which ones matter, and what they’re worth…
• Market Movement: QBs in, QBs out.
• Quick Hitter: A bet to HAMMER!
• TNF: Will the Bills finally look like the Bills???
• It’s 10/26: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…

In the Week 7 Thursday Betting Life Newsletter, our friend Captain Jack from Unabated gave us a preview of an article about how to bet teasers.

In case you’re unaware, a teaser is a type of parlay (and a parlay is a bet composed of smaller bets — or “legs” — that all need to hit for the overall position to cash).

Let me walk you through an example.

As I type this sentence (Wed. 10/25 at 3 p.m. ET), I’m looking at all the odds on DraftKings. The Bills are -8.5 (-110) at home against the Buccaneers for Thursday Night Football. (More on that game later in the newsletter. That’s what we call… wait for it… a tease!) And on Sunday, the Saints are +1.5 (-110) on the road against the Colts.

If we wanted to parlay these two teams at their current lines and odds, DraftKings would give us a payout at +264 if both bets hit. With $100 wagered, we’d get our $100 back plus $264.

But if we want to tease, DraftKings will give us an extra six points on both teams — so we’ll get Bills -2.5 and Saints +7.5 — and that’s fantastic, but in exchange, we’ll have far shorter odds (-120). If our ticket cashes, $120 wagered will net our original investment plus just $100.

Essentially, in teasers, we’re buying points from the sportsbook.

🤔 Is It Worth Buying Points Via Teasers?

Yes, it’s worth sacrificing payout for points… as long as we get multiple important points.

With our Bills -2.5 and Saints +7.5 legs, we’re moving through the key numbers of 3 and 7 — the two most important integers in football. Even at -120 odds, this teaser is profitable. 

Based on the Unabated Teaser Calculator, this bet has a +3.08% edge — and that’s based solely on getting through 3 and 7. That doesn’t take into account anything to do with the games themselves… whether the Bills and Saints are actually good bets.

If they are good bets — if they offer value at their original lines of Bills -8.5 and Saints +1.5 — then this teaser should have an even larger edge.

🗣️ Why Does This Matter?

Here’s why I’m bringing this up.

This week, we have a lot of games that are in the six-point Wong teaser zone.

• Bills -8.5 vs. Buccaneers
• Titans +2.5 vs. Falcons
• Steelers +2.5 vs. Jaguars
• Saints +1.5 at Colts
• Ravens -8.5 at Cardinals
• Chargers -8.5 vs. Bears
• Lions -8 vs. Raiders

Depending on the book you’re looking at, there might even be a couple more games that fall into the +1.5 to +2.5 and -7.5 to -8.5 buckets.

With this many options on the board, teasers are bound to be a “thing” this week. People will be talking about them on podcasts, writing about them in articles, and betting them with abandon.

To see my projections and get some thoughts on the teaser legs I like more than others, check out my Week 8 Best Bets article.

What are the key numbers in the NFL? Jason Scavone from Unabated talks about how to bet the spread…

When you’re playing spreads in the NFL, the number you get is critical. But some numbers are more critical than others. 

And if you aren’t paying laser-focused attention to what lines you’re betting into — and where there might be better alternatives — you aren’t going to make it. Betting NFL sides is complicated enough on its own. You can’t bring a butter knife to a bazooka fight. 

🗝️ What Are the Key Numbers in NFL Betting? 

You end up with key numbers in the NFL because of how scoring works: three points for a field goal, six for a touchdown, and points after worth one or two. Throw the occasional safety into the mix. 

Not coincidentally, those are the key numbers to look out for. To understand why, we need to know the push probability. In other words, the chance that a game is decided by exactly that number.

• 3 Points: It’s worth about 9%. That means if the Seahawks are a three-point favorite over the Browns, there’s a 9% chance Seattle wins by exactly three.
• 7 Points: There’s around a 6.5% chance the Chiefs beat the Broncos by exactly seven.
• 6 Points: Last, a game lined at -6 has about a 4.5% chance of falling on that number. 

🚨 Be Careful When Buying On or Off 

“If I love Seattle and don’t want to push my bet, don’t I want Seahawks -2.5 instead of -3?”

Great call, eagle-eyed and savvy bettor. That’s true. You know it. The sportsbooks know it. And the sportsbooks know you know it. 

This is why they’ll let you buy onto and off key numbers. Usually, though, for a hefty fee.

Every bet has a price attached (that’s the “-110” you’ll see after a spread), and the hallmark of any good bettor is paying less for your bets than they’re worth. Your job is to bargain hunt.

• 3 Points: Almost every book will charge at least 25 cents (some now charge more) to buy from -3 to -2.5 or +3 to +3.5. In other words, if your book offers Seattle -3 at -120, they’ll give you Seattle -2.5 at -145. But the actual value of moving on or off the three is around 19 cents. You’re paying too much for the half-point when it’s a quarter.
• 7 Points: Taking -7 to -6.5 should cost about 13 cents, but many sportsbooks will let you do it for just 10 cents. If you can move a +7 (-110) bet to +7.5 (-120), it’s a good value.
• 6 Points: Moving on or off the -6 should only cost around eight cents. Most sportsbooks will charge you 10. Don’t overpay.

💰 The Takeaways

The most obvious conclusion here ties to one of the fundamental axioms of sports betting: Line shopping matters. Here. We’ll say it again, louder for the people in the back: LINE SHOPPING MATTERS.

If two different books are offering Seattle -2.5 (-110) and Seattle -3 (-110), it’s a slam dunk to bet the Seahawks at the first book if you think Seattle is the right side. Always make sure you’re getting the best number on either side of the 3, 6, or 7.

The second important thing to remember is that if you’re buying half points, only do so when the price is right. If you can get the 7 for 10 cents, it’s worth it. If you can’t, keep your powder dry.

Learn More About What Half Points Are Worth!

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Our friends over at The Hammer Betting Network have been adding their favorite Week 8 bets to our Free Bet Tracker. Here’s one of the latest courtesy of Fabian Sommer…

🧠 The moment when the market tells you what it thinks about your QBs. Brock Purdy is in the concussion protocol.

🦶 Another 49ers note, because why not? Maybe you don’t deserve to win if you draft a kicker with a top-100 pick.

🤝 Private QB coach vs. former would-be franchise QB: Yep, he went there.

🤏 When you have the right idea but the wrong execution. They’re really passing A LOT.

🏆 This might not be actionable, but it sure is informational! Standout NFL ATS records for halves and quarters.

🤠 The Rangers and the Diamondbacks are in the World Series! It doesn’t need to be pretty to be bettable.

😢 Imagine what could have been. Everything is fine in Carolina; nothing is wrong at all.

📈 All the trends you might want to know for Week 8, including… big line moves, sharps vs. squares, and teasers!

👑 A man of the people. If you don’t stick him in a single-game parlay tonight, you’re not a true degenerate.

📺 Looking for more Thursday Night Football bets? We’ve got you covered.

Week 8 kicks off TONIGHT with a heart-palpating interconference matchup matchup between the Bills and Buccaneers. Matt LaMarca is here to break it all down from a betting angle…

🏈 Thursday Night Football Best Bet: Bills -9.5 (-110, BetMGM)

The sharps haven’t really taken a stand on this game, but the public has been all over the Bills. Buffalo has received 85% of the dollars on just 83% of the bets, causing this number to move from Bills -7.5 to Bills -9.5 across the industry.

It’s always scary to back such a public team — particularly during an island game — and the public took an absolute beating in Week 7. Teams getting at least 55% of the bet tickets went just 2-7 against the spread and posted the worst ROI of the 2023 season.

However, public teams have actually done pretty well this season on the whole. Teams getting at least 55% of the tickets are 46-34-3 overall, and teams getting at least 65% of the bets are 20-14-2.

I still don’t think you want to make a habit of grabbing public teams, but doing it every once in a while probably isn’t a death sentence.

The Bills were listed as 10-point favorites when this line was first released, so their recent performances have created a smidge of value in their favor. The team should also be focused after getting upset by the Patriots: they’re 13-10-2 ATS after a loss with Allen at quarterback.

Unless Mayfield can revert to his early-season form — which stands out as a significant outlier when compared to his overall body of work — I don’t see how this game stays competitive.

🏃‍♂️ TNF Best Prop: Josh Allen Over 21.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel)

• Bet To: Over 23.5 (-110)
• Fantasy Life Projection: 25.9

Allen has been a bit more reluctant to tuck it and run this season than in years past. He averaged 7.1 attempts per game over his first five seasons, resulting in 40.1 yards per game. This season, he’s down to just 4.1 attempts per game, and his rushing average has dipped to 21.1 yards.

Diving into his utilization, his designed rush rate has dipped from 18% in 2022 to just 7% this season, while his scramble rate has remained pretty much the same (8% vs. 7%).

However, Allen did have a season-high seven totes in his last game, but he averaged a subpar 2.4 yards per attempt. Allen’s YPC for his career is 5.6, so he should see some progression in that department moving forward.

We have Allen projected for closer to 26 yards on Thursday, giving him a nice cushion over the FanDuel line of 21.5. With the team losing two of their past three games, don’t be surprised if they let Allen off the leash a bit in Week 8.

More Bets for TNF!