For the first time in forever, there’s no 1 pm ET game on the first weekend of playoff football …
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by the BetMGM:
- Sunday Injuries: No. 1 CB out for GB?
- Bills vs. Steelers: Postponed.
- Cowboys vs. Packers: Love in first playoff start?
- Lions vs. Rams: #RevengeGame!
- It’s 1/14: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…
With the (understandable) postponement of Bills-Steelers to 4:30 pm ET on Monday, we once again have a two-game slate: Cowboys-Packers and Lions-Rams.
While Matt LaMarca and Geoff Ulrich break down these games later in the newsletter, here are the key injuries to be aware of for each matchup.
🤠 Cowboys
Entering the week, there were injury concerns with CB Stephon Gilmore (shoulder) and LG Tyler Smith (foot), but they both practiced fully on Friday, and the only questionable player on the injury report is No. 2 QB Cooper Rush (illness).
With the exception of CB Trevon Diggs (knee, IR) and LB Leighton Vander Esch (neck, IR), who have been out for months, the Cowboys are as healthy as possible.
🧀 Packers
No. 2 RB A.J. Dillon (thumb, neck) is out for a second straight game, but that might be addition by subtraction, and WR Christian Watson (hamstring, Q) has a shot to play for the first time since Week 13 after getting in limited practices every day.
The main uncertainty with the Packers lies with No. 1 CB Jaire Alexander (shoulder/ankle, Q), who suffered an injury in practice and missed Thursday and Friday.
Given that the Packers tend to be cautious with injured players and that Alexander hasn’t practiced since tweaking his ankle, I’m skeptical he will play, which makes Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb — one of my Wild Card fantasy favorites — even more attractive.
🦁 Lions
EDGE James Houston (ankle, IR) is not quite ready to return, and the Lions will be thinner than usual without WR Kalif Raymond (knee), TE James Mitchell (hand), and CB Jerry Jacobs (thigh, knee).
But the massively positive news for the Lions is that star rookie TE Sam LaPorta (knee, Q) is Iowa strong and likely to play after practicing fully on Friday, and DL John Cominsky (illness, Q) should return from his one-game absence after practicing every day this week.
Considering how banged up the Lions looked exiting Week 18, they enter the playoffs relatively healthy.
🐏 Rams
On offense, the Rams will likely have both TE Tyler Higbee (shoulder, Q) and RG Kevin Dotson (shoulder, Q) after they practiced (limitedly) every day, and there’s a chance that swing OT Joe Noteboom (foot) will suit up as well.
On defense, FS Jordan Fuller (ankle, Q) seems doubtful after not practicing at all, and depth LB Troy Reeder (knee, Q) and DT Bobby Brown (illness, Q) are uncertain — but otherwise the Rams are healthy.
With few injury concerns, the Rams are one of my favorite Wild Card bets.
Check out More of Freedman’s Best Bets!
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See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:
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Read on to see our team’s best bets for both Sunday Wild Card games!
🥧 “You don’t score, until you score.” Touchdown bets for Sunday.
✍️ The best Pick’em plays for Sunday. Rams, Lions, points galore.
🤔 The question needs to be asked: Which team benefits more from the game being postponed?
💰 Need more plays? That was rhetorical. We have them. For FREE.
🤷♂️ Then again: Advantage this week, disadvantage next two weeks — if the Bills win.
🤝 Great minds think alike. Bets from the Group Chat for Wild Card Weekend.
🤠 Texans win, Browns lose. History repeats itself.
🦾 Patrick Mahomes. Man or machine? Aaron Rodgers' naturopath wants to know.
📊 Looking sharp isn’t just about how you dress. Where sharps are betting for Super Wild Card Weekend.
🏒 And now a non-NFL item: Two goals in 10 seconds … the horror.
Two of the top QBs from the second half of the season will square off in Dallas on Sunday. Dak Prescott will look to vanquish his postseason demons, while Jordan Love will look to pull off an upset in his first playoff start. Who has the edge? Matt LaMarca breaks down his favorite bets for Cowboys-Packers.
🤠 Best Bet: Cowboys -7.0 (-105, Caesars)
I wrote about this contest in the Wild Card Weekend Sharp Report, and this is a game that I see a bit differently from the professionals. They seem to prefer the Packers — who have racked up 73% of the dollars on 43% of the bets (per Action Network) — but I think the Cowboys are the correct side.
For starters, Love and the Packers will have to overcome an extremely powerful trend: QBs making their first postseason start are just 18-35-1 ATS when facing a QB with playoff experience.
Prescott’s postseason experience hasn’t been great — he’s just 2-4 straight up and 1-5 ATS — but he’ll at least know what to expect.
And this feels like the year where Prescott makes a leap. He’s coming off the best season of his career, ranking second among all quarterbacks in EPA + CPOE composite. He tallied 36 passing TDs with just nine INTs, giving him a legit MVP-caliber resume.
The Cowboys have been their best at home during the regular season, winning all eight games by an average of 21.5 points per game. They’ve covered the spread by an average of more than 13 points. The Cowboys have had their struggles in the playoffs, but that shouldn’t cloud how you view the current version of this roster. They’re simply the better team, and if they do what they’ve done at home all season, they should win this game comfortably.
⬇️ Top Prop: Luke Musgrave Under 1.5 Receptions (+130, DraftKings)
Musgrave returned to the lineup last week after a six-game absence, but he was minimally involved. He had just an 18% route participation, and he saw only one target. It was a must-win game for the Packers, but Musgrave still wasn’t rushed back into action.
Musgrave could take on a larger role this week, but he’ll likely still split time with Tucker Kraft, who filled in well in Musgrave’s absence, so there’s no need to lean on Musgrave if he’s not at 100%.
Additionally, the Packers could get back Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, and Romeo Doubs. This is the healthiest the Packers receiving corps has been in a while, so the TEs won’t need to carry as much weight in the passing attack.
Finally, the Cowboys have been excellent at defending TEs this season. They allowed the third-fewest receptions and yards to the position, so getting this under at +130 is appealing. We currently have Musgrave projected for only 1.1 catches.
🚀 Same-Game Parlay (+887, FanDuel)
- Cowboys -16.5
- CeeDee Lamb anytime TD
- Dak Prescott Over 1.5 passing TDs
- Luke Musgrave Under 16.5 receiving yards
If the Cowboys win this contest, I’m expecting it to look like most of their other home wins. That means a comfortable winning margin, with plenty of production from Lamb and Prescott.
Adding in the under on Musgrave’s receiving prop brings the payout to +918. Good enough for me.
The Rams and Lions meet in a potential track meet. It’s also a game dripping with narratives with Matthew Stafford playing in Detroit for the first time since being traded to the Rams in 2021. So will the game live up to the hype or should we prep for a letdown? Geoff Ulrich discusses below…
🐏 Best Bet: Rams +3.0 (-104, FanDuel)
- Play to: Rams +135 (Moneyline)
The Rams have an experience advantage at HC that should matter in this game. Sean McVay has run the gauntlet in the playoffs before and has been able to get a very young team to believe in itself this season.
Per the Thursday Betting Life Newsletter McVay has also been solid in these kinds of spots before. He’s 16-10-2 ATS (18.2% ROI) as an underdog, and as a road dog of at least +3 he’s 12-5-2 ATS (32.7% ROI).
Neither team has great secondaries but Detroit’s has been next-level kind of awful of late. Nick Mullens piled up 807 passing yards in two games against them (Weeks 16 & 18), and they’ve allowed 8.9 yards per attempt over their past three games. Even if the Rams don’t win (I think they will), it’s not hard to imagine them keeping this to an FG.
Since their Week 10 bye the Rams have gone 7-1 ATS and are also 7-1 SU. That one loss came to the Ravens (the Super Bowl favorites) in OT. While +3.5 would be ideal I have no issues with getting the Rams at +3.0 or even taking them on the moneyline.
⬆️ Top Prop: Josh Reynolds Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
- Projection: 38.8
- Play to: 28.5
The Lions have all kinds of injury issues in their receiving room right now. WR Kalif Raymond is out and TE Sam LaPorta (knee, Q) may not be 100% if he plays. Jameson Williams (ankle) also may not be 100%. Last week, when those three players were either injured or out, Reynolds saw seven targets and went for 44 yards.
Reynolds also had five games with 50 yards receiving or more in his first six starts (when Williams was suspended). In those games, he averaged 56.8 receiving yards and 4.5 targets.
The Rams have a somewhat thin secondary that allowed the 10th-most receiving yards to opposing WRs and should be ultra concerned with trying to limit Amon Ra St. Brown. It’s a good spot for Reynolds, who remains an underrated receiver and someone our projections are high on.
🤝 Same-Game Parlay (+2200, DraftKings)
- Josh Reynolds over 27.5 receiving yards
- Demarcus Robinson 50+ receiving yards
- Robinson anytime TD
- Matthew Stafford 300+ passing yards
- Stafford over 1.5 passing TDs
Two weaker secondaries, a dome, and two above-average QBs mean we can target some overs and alternate lines without feeling overly degenerate. I mentioned Reynolds above, but the spot is also good for Robinson who has posted target shares of 27%, 19%, 10%, and 29% over his past four starts.
Robinson has managed to go over 80 yards receiving in each of his past two games, and in both of them Stafford has gone over 300 yards passing. The two have also combined for four TDs over their past five games. Combining a Robinson TD and both their alternate lines gets us to +1900 once we add in Reynolds. Those are solid odds for a five-way SGP that feels as if it has a good chance to hit given the defenses in play.
