🚀 The 2nd-Year WR Ready For Stardom

In Egyptian mythology, the sun god traverses the gridiron soaking up targets and radiating fantasy points...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Momentous:

• The Lions WR ready to take the leap
• Matt Harmon's Reception Perception: Amon-Ra St. Brown
• The Broncos RB1 revealed??
• Geoff's 2 favorite bets right now
• How to draft from the #10 slot
• It’s 8/18. Take it away, Peter Overzet…

I hope you've been gobbling up as much Amon-Ra St. Brown as you can in drafts because he's about to experience the Hard Knocks bump. 

There was already lots to like about the Lions 22-year-old second-year WR who finished the 2021 season scorching hot as the WR3 from Weeks 13-18, but now the entire world is falling in love with St. Brown.

Here he is on the most recent episode showcasing the massive chip on his shoulder after getting selected at 112th overall in last year's draft:

Amon-Ra St. Brown remembers all 16 receivers drafted ahead of him as motivation

— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife)
Aug 17, 2022

St. Brown currently goes off the board as WR30 at the 5/6 turn in Underdog drafts, and he's a very strong selection there.

It's fair to worry about added mouths to feed in the offense with the addition of DJ Chark and Jameson Williams, but the upgrade in weaponry should help offset any volume concerns with increased efficiency and redzone trips. 

There's a long track record of second-year WRs breaking out, and ARSB has already proved to us that he can ball. Toss in a healthy grudge and an incredible nickname? I've seen enough to fully buy in. 

And in case you need any more St. Brown propaganda, below Matt Harmon outlines exactly how and where he wins on the field.

With Reception Perception, Matt Harmon studies the film on WRs, tracks and interprets the data, and then delivers the goods. Today he is swinging by the Fantasy Life offices to get us hyped on Lions WR, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Take it away, Matt...

Somehow, probably because of how white-hot he finished his rookie season, Amon-Ra St. Brown has become one of the most polarizing players in fantasy football circles. It’s so weird. Let’s hope Reception Perception can help show exactly what type of player he is and help bring some clarity to the madness.

St. Brown’s overall success rates in the Reception Perception In-Season Rookie Report were not good. However, his success rate vs. man coverage jumped in this full-season sample, and his success rate vs. zone coverage (80.4%) rocketed up to a particularly promising territory for a player of his archetype.

It’s really easy to see why. The Lions figured out what to do with him. Back in the Rookie Report, I noted that St. Brown’s route percentage chart was way too downfield oriented. Look at the differences between the chart below and the mid-season chart.

The Lions significantly dialed back routes like the nine and post and bumped up his routes closer to the line of scrimmage. This allowed him to run the layup-type routes he’s best at earning separation on while running against more zone coverage.

St. Brown was primarily a slot receiver (70.5%) and was off the line of scrimmage for over 80% of his sampled snaps. He even got some backfield work once he was fully integrated into the offense.

The Lions did a lot of work to make sure he would get a free release from the line – helping offset his poor success rate vs. press – and would often put him in motion before the snap. Sometimes he’d even start running a slant from the flanker position behind the line prior to the snap so he’d be at full speed before anyone on the defense during the play. Dan Campbell and the Lions’ coaching staff were really in their bag developing some cool things for St. Brown.

That’s part of the reason I’m not among the folks writing off St. Brown’s breakout as just a product of other guys on the team being injured and the depleted wide receiver room.

His playing time jumped as soon as the team got back from their 2021 bye week, and his route portfolio was also adjusted to something that better suited him. The more he played, the more creative the team got in designing touches for the rookie. This also coincided with Anthony Lynn’s (no longer with the team) influence in the offensive plan waning and Campbell taking over the play-calling. There are far more pieces of red yarn to connect here besides “T.J. Hockenson was hurt.” This coaching staff was going out of its way to find ways to get St. Brown on the field and feature him before and during the series of games where he was piling up stats.

It’s easy to see why the Lions wanted to get St. Brown in a role like this. Not only does Jared Goff love to have a layup receiver, but St. Brown makes plays in the open field. He was “in space” on 14.5% of his sampled routes and was brought down on first contact on just 46.9% of those plays. He’s a reliable figure who just keeps the offense moving.

I called Amon-Ra St. Brown a “Bud Light Cooper Kupp” type player in his Reception Perception prospect profile before he was drafted by a team with a former Rams’ front office member as the GM and employed the old Rams’ quarterback. I’ve never felt better about that comp than I do now after charting his rookie season.

Adding a player with elite speed that defenses must account for like Jameson Williams can be a real tactical boost for a player like this; think Brandin Cooks in the Rams’ offense. It’s also hard to imagine Detroit just throwing St. Brown on the shelf when they played some of their best football (3-3) from Week 13 on when his target totals shot through the roof. Winning matters in future decision-making. Even if St. Brown is a lock to not see the market share he maintained down the stretch – a feat no one seems to be penciling in – he should remain a key cog for Detroit.

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🏅 Who is the Broncos RB1? Melvin Gordon, of all people, has the intel. Full video here.

🎭 This Madden depiction of a Jets WR is hysterical. Or you could also say egregious.

⚔️ We had our first big training camp fight. Please don't touch CMC. 

👐 Sick catch by Treylon Burks. This is why we don't panic about depth charts.

🚑 Uh oh, is the Cowboys WR1 banged up? Here's why we shouldn't panic.

💸 How dumb is this bet? I actually kind of like it tbh.

👿 How to get a fantasy trade done. This will definitely work. 

When we're not drafting best ball teams, we do a little sports betting. Today Geoff shares some of his favorite NFL bets on the board right now...

💰 Saquon Barkley over 1300.50 Rec. + Rush yards (-105)

We should really not be going out of our way to bet overs on running back’s in season long props. However, as much as I like fading the RB coming off a season of heavy usage (I’m looking at you Joe Mixon and Najee Harris) I also like being bullish on a player who sat for large portions of 2021 – and is coming into 2022 with something to prove.

The main attraction here though is the number. Saquon Barkley’s injury issues are clearly baked into the 1300.50 total for receiving/rushing yards as he posted well over 1400.00 rush/receiving yards in just 13 games in 2019. Add in an offensive minded head coach, a weak schedule and some serious training camp vibes and we may only need 12 healthy games from Barkley. This one’s a rare RB over for me.

💰 Washington Commanders under 7.5 wins (+115)

The NFC East isn’t necessarily back to its heydays of the early 1990’s but it’s a stronger division this year than last. The Eagles have made a serious attempt to improve and the Giants landed one of the most intriguing coaching hires of the off-season. 

That leaves the Commanders whose big move this offseason was to bring in Carson Wentz:

Carson Wentz already trying to get his WRs killed.

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman)
Aug 13, 2022

As the Colts found out late in 2021, Carson Wentz isn’t going to bring you back from large deficits or win you shootouts on a consistent basis. He’s been an inaccurate QB most of his career and only two quarterbacks have taken more sacks than him since 2019.

Washington’s secondary ranked 27th in PFF’s team coverage grades last season and will be under pressure from the likes of AJ Brown and Cee Dee Lamb on a consistent basis in 2022. As good a guy as Ron Riviera seems off the field, he has exactly one winning season as head coach over his last six years in that role in the NFL.

The under 7.5 wins here is the play as long as it stays at plus-money.

⚡ Can Justin Herbert be the Fantasy QB1?

Season long drafts are just around the corner. In this new series, our contributors will get you prepared from all twelve of the first round draft slots. Today, Jake shares how to attack a draft from the tenth pick...

Drafting from the 10 spot may not seem ideal. Because…well, it isn’t.

Whether you side with Jonathan that the top tier has five players or you buy Sam’s take that Austin Ekeler should be included as the 6th man, you’re not likely to get any of those guys here.

But this spot does offer plenty of flexibility in terms of roster construction. The positional combinations in the first two rounds are plentiful, as nearly any mix of RB/WR/TE can land you a solid core to build the rest of your draft around.

I’m punting the TE position until the later rounds, so my preference is to lead off with Stefon Diggs and Aaron Jones. They’re both considered “second tier” players, but each has the upside to finish as the number one at their positions.

Since 2020, Diggs leads all receivers in targets. Gabriel Davis breakout be damned, I don’t expect Diggs – who just signed a massive contract extension this offseason – to be any less involved in the Bills offense. 

Meanwhile, Jones’ receiving numbers will benefit significantly from a questionable Packers’ WR depth chart. Aaron Rodgers recently called out his young receivers for their inconsistency, saying he needs guys he can trust. And Jones has proven to be extremely reliable.

From that point forward, you’ll need to embrace the “get your guys” motto and start reaching for players you really want. According to the Fantasy Life ADP Tool, you’d just miss out on our beloved Tee Higgins in the 3rd round, so I recommend going after a high ceiling player like Travis Etienne and then hammering your favorite WRs in the middle rounds. 

And remember, just because you don’t start your draft with Jonathan Taylor or Justin Jefferson, that doesn’t mean you can’t put together a championship-caliber roster.