Good morning to everyone who checked their fantasy matchup at the dinner table...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Pristine Auction:
- 6 MVPs from yesterday's action
- The Walkthrough: Don't give up on the Ravens
- JMToWin's Week 12 DFS Tips
- Geoff's bets: Bengals, Panthers & Seahawks
- Linda's Kicking It: Top kicker plays
- It's 11/25. Take it away, Peter Overzet
We complain about low-scoring games and injuries a lot as fantasy players, so it was nice to be treated to a fun Thanksgiving slate where the games were entertaining and the fantasy stars delivered.
Here are my six fantasy MVPs from yesterday's action...
🦃 Buffalo 28 - Detroit 25
Fantasy MVPs: Josh Allen & Amon-Ra St. Brown
Despite Allen's fifth red-zone interception in the Bills' last six games, the Bills got their second straight win at Ford Field (take notes, Lions) after Allen lead a game-winning drive with 23 seconds left.
He also delivered another top-tier fantasy day. He compiled 253 pass yards, 78 rush yards, and 3 total TDs for 30.9 fantasy points. That'll do. WR Isaiah McKenzie (6-96-1) surprisingly led the WRs in scoring while playing primarily out of the slot.
On the other side, it had been a while since we got a vintage St. Brown performance. But ARSB delivered in a big way yesterday, racking up 9 receptions for 122 yards and 1 TD. More importantly, he also took care of his teammates:
Amon-Ra St. Brown making sure his offense stays fed 😤
— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife)
Nov 24, 2022
WR D.J. Chark also returned to the Lions' offense, promptly earning five targets, and caught a TD pass.
🦃 Dallas 28 - Giants 20
Fantasy MVPs: CeeDee Lamb & Dalton Schultz
Michael Gallup was the focal point early for the Cowboys, but both Lamb and Schultz heated up in a big way later in the game. Lamb put up 106 yards on 6 catches, a couple of which were of the highlight variety. Schultz only had 31 receiving yards but found the endzone twice.
I couldn't even muster an MVP on the Giants' side. They hung around in this game, but everyone disappointed in the box score. Saquon Barkley, fortunately, found the endzone, but his performance still left a lot to be desired:
All these potential hurry up and garbage time fantasy points for Saquon Barkley down the drain.
15 touches in a must win game. A huge fantasy let down for Barkley managers.
— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy)
Nov 25, 2022
🦃 Vikings 33 - Patriots 26
Fantasy MVPs: Justin Jefferson & Mac Jones
Remember the narrative that Bill Belichick will always shut down the opposing team's top option? He must have forgot yesterday because Jefferson went 9-139-1 while making a couple insane catches in traffic:
Justin Jefferson 🤯
— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife)
Nov 25, 2022
To put an exclamation point on his day, Jefferson broke Randy Moss' record for the most receiving yards in the first three seasons of a career. He'll be battling Tyreek Hill throughout the rest of the season for the fantasy WR1 crown.
The Patriots lost the game--partly because they gave up a 97-yard kick return TD--but Jones played a great game at QB for the Pats. He threw for 382 yards and 2 TDs while tossing lasers and spreading the ball around to multiple pass catchers.
🏈 Can we interest you in a free Jalen Hurts signed helmet?
When Matthew made Jalen Hurts his "ride or die" pick for the 2022 season, this is exactly what we were all hoping for. Through 11 weeks, Hurts is your current QB3. He's coming off another big game that included 86 rushing yards and a TD.
All Hurts memorabilia is on the rise during his MVP campaign, so I have to ask...can we interest you in a SIGNED JALEN HURTS HELMET??!
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It doesn't end there, though. Pristine is running a big Black Friday sale. Here are the details:
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The Walkthrough is the most comprehensive matchups column in the fantasy space. Every Friday, Rotoworld's Pat Kerrane outlines all the critical fantasy football context for each and every game. Today, he shares a stack he's excited about for Week 12.
🚀 Don't give up on the Ravens passing game
Jackson is much better positioned to take advantage of this soft passing matchup now that Mark Andrews is off the Ravens' injury report. Andrews' receiving profile is off-the-charts good, and not just for a tight end, but for any player. Among all NFL players with 100+ routes, Andrews has a 96th-percentile target rate, a 97th-percentile first-read target rate, and a 98th-percentile target share. He's a dominant receiver who just happens to play tight end.
Andrews has an elite 2.12 yards per route run, but remarkably, he's underperforming his target volume. Andrews' 7.7 yards per target is over a yard lower than expected for his 10.6 aDOT. If Andrews is more efficient on his targets in this very favorable passing matchup, he could be a slate-breaker.
JMToWin is a founder/developer of One Week Season, where we focus not only on preparing you for each unique slate, but also on teaching you the strategies and theories behind winning DFS play. Our team has millions of dollars in net DFS profit, and each week we strive to build the OWS Fam into a leaderboard-crashing unit. Become a part of the OWS Fam with OWS Free!
His stack of index cards was at risk of collapsing. He'd hardly been able to sleep all summer. Whenever he closed his eyes, he saw creative ways to leverage the unique skillsets of Patrick Mahomes, of Travis Kelce, of Tyreek Hill — and he added new plays to his ever-growing stack.
This was Andy Reid, the offseason before Kansas City won their first Super Bowl: his imagination was stimulated, his creativity flowing.
It's funny, but on this side of football (the "content provider" side), so much time is often spent with computer screens and spreadsheets. It's easy to lose sight of the imagination and creativity required for coaches and even players. And this absence of imagination and creativity in analysis can lead to the same absence in DFS play.
Creativity was the reason the OWS pennant covered the tops of the leaderboards in Week 12:
"Yeah, Zeke will be active…but what if Pollard retains a larger, more dynamic role?"
"Yeah, the Over/Under for Cincy/Pittsburgh is tiny, but what if Burrow brings his 'A-game' and torches the Steelers' sorry secondary?"
For years, I've preached that DFS is a creative endeavor.
With that in mind, here are four questions that might stimulate your creativity for the Week 12 slate:
❓ 1. "What if the Buccaneers used their bye week to fix what ails them?"
The Bucs are implied to score under 24 points on the road against a Cleveland defense that ranks 31st in DVOA (Football Outsiders) and 30th in points allowed per game. But what if the Bucs come out of their bye looking more like their 2020/2021 selves?
❓ 2. "What if the Bengals abandon the run?"
The Bengals have the third-highest pass rate over expectation in the NFL, and they are set to take on the Titans' number-one run defense (DVOA). The Titans face the highest opponent pass play rate in the NFL, and we know what Burrow is capable of when he takes the game into his hands. Cincy is implied to score fewer than 23 points here, which could once again push projection systems away from them — and could once again give us a tangible edge in tourneys.
❓ 3. "What if the Raiders can't stop the Seahawks, and the Seahawks can't stop the Raiders?"
This last week marked the sixth consecutive game(!) in which one of Josh Jacobs // Davante Adams scored 30+ DraftKings points, while the Raiders' defense ranks 24th in points allowed per game and 32nd in DVOA. If neither team can stop the other, this could be the "had to have it" game of the week.
❓ 4. "What if a healthy Cardinals team is different from a banged-up Cardinals team?"
Kyler Murray could be back this week. Marquise Brown could be back this week. DeAndre Hopkins is in elite form. And the Cardinals are at home against a Chargers defense that has allowed the fourth-most points per game in the NFL. Our competition has probably been scared off the Cardinals by now, giving us a big edge to take advantage of this week.
Spreadsheets are great.
Creativity is better.
Use your imagination as part of your DFS play — and I'll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
Code LIFE60 saves 60%(!!!) on rest-of-season access to OWS subscriptions.
🚑 The Patriots lose an RB? This doesn't sound great.
🙏🏻 An update on the Bengals stars. These might both be GTDs.
📱 Lmao, check out Dak Prescott's screensaver. Is this allowed!?
🚜 Caption this. I love that RGIII is out here engagement farming.
🏈 You think Justin Fields can't throw? Ya right, watch this.
🦃 Who signed off on this idea? C'mon Terry.
❓ Everything is setting up perfectly for this RB. Can he take advantage?
In between placing waiver claims and setting our lineups, we do a little sports betting around here. Today Geoff is here to give you his best bets of the week. All odds from our friends at BetMGM.
💸 Bengals -2.5 (-110)
The Bengals head into this game on a two-game win streak. Part of the reason why the team has been able to cope with the loss of Ja’Marr Chase (who may return for this game) is the improvement of the o-line. Cincinnati has allowed just three sacks to Joe Burrow over the last two weeks, who comes in sporting an average QB Rating of 114.6 over his last five starts.
No one is even close
Joe Burrow when his O-line wins
(last 2 seasons):72% Comp pct (1st in NFL)
9.4 Yds/att (1st)
41% 1st downs/att (1st)
114.4 Pass rtg (1st)@PaulHembo 👀👊🏻
— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7)
Nov 21, 2022
Burrow has also been a complete cash machine in these spots throughout his career, as the Bengals have an incredible 14-3 record ATS over their last 17 road games and are also 14-7 ATS in non-division games since the start of 2021. The Bengals cashed easily for us last week, and there should be no fear of backing them again against Tennessee.
💸 Panthers +2 (-110)
The Broncos come into this game ranked dead last in points per game and 8th-last in yards per play. Asking them to turn things around on a week where they’ll be relying on a backfield led entirely by Latavius Murray (2.8 YPC over his last two games) and a WR crew who will likely be without Jerry Jeudy seems risky at best. The Panthers' defense has also taken a step up of late, landing eight sacks over their last two games, and Denver’s O-Line has taken a nosedive and now ranks third-last in pressure rate against at 27.2%.
Despite the complete ineptitude on offense by the Broncos and the fact the Panthers limited the Ravens to just 13 points last week, Carolina still enters this game as +2.0 underdogs. The Panthers are now 4-1 ATS over their last five games and should be able to ride their defense to at least a cover and, most likely, the outright win.
💸 Seahawks -3.5 (-110)
The Seahawks come into this game fresh off a loss in Germany to the Buccaneers but are a great bounce-back candidate for Week 12. Since 2010 when Pete Carroll took over as the head coach for the Seahawks, Seattle has gone a magnificent 45-25-4 ATS (64.3% cover rate) after a loss, the best record in that time span among all NFL teams.
Seattle also has the horses in the secondary to slow down Davante Adams, as rookie Tariq Wollen has allowed just a 58.5 passer rating to opposing QBs when targeted. The Raiders have played their division tough but are just 1-5 ATS against non-divisional opponents this year. Take Seattle to get back on track in Week 2
Picking kickers can be a pain, but relax, we have our resident kicking expert Linda to help you make the right choice...
If you celebrated Thanksgiving, I hope you’re reading this newsletter fully fat and happy! If you didn’t celebrate, I hope you at least got the day off to watch a full slate of Thursday football.
Before I dive into this week’s streaming options, let’s check on how last week went. Robbie Gould and Cameron Dicker finished above the league median in Week 11, bringing the record over the last four weeks to 7-of-8. Can we keep firing on all cylinders as we roll into Week 12? Let’s find out...
🦵️ Cameron Dicker (Linda's Rank: K7)
I’m going back to Dicker the Kicker this weekend. The Chargers have attempted multiple field goals in the last three weeks, and Dicker has yet to miss in his NFL career (I hope I didn’t just jinx him). Dicker is rostered in 22% of Yahoo! leagues and has officially been moved up to the Chargers' 53-man roster. Dustin Hopkins has been placed on IR, so you can pick up Dicker now and ride the hot hand foot for the next several weeks without concern about Hopkins coming back for his job.
🦵️ Joey Slye (Linda's Rank: K13)
I’ll be honest, this one feels a little bit like a trap. But I can’t help myself. Washington has attempted seven field goals over the last two weeks. The offense seems to have taken a step forward with Taylor Heinicke at the helm. Opposing kickers have averaged 2.7 field goal attempts against Atlanta over the last three weeks. Slye is rostered in less than 10% of Yahoo! leagues.
You can find my Week 12 kicker rankings at FantasyLife.com.
Kirk Cousins actually good in prime time. I’ll be dammed
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Nov 25, 2022
