Leonard Fournette must have changed his cell & forgot to tell the league…
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by GameBlazers:
- 3 familiar faces are back
- Fantasy’s Biggest Overperformers: Yes, a Dolphin
- Updates on Lawrence, Niners stars
- Buy, Sell, Hold: Keep the faith with Chris Olave…
- It’s 10/18. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
With injuries piling up, teams are scrambling to backfill depth on their rosters.
Unfortunately, these teams are running into the same issue that we run into on the fantasy waiver wire…it’s slim pickings.
Yesterday, we saw three teams scraping the bottom of the barrel and finding some familiar names to tack onto the end of their bench…
🤔 The Rams signed Darrell Henderson (& Myles Gaskin)
The Rams backfield is in flux with Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers most likely out for Week 7.
Chris Allen explained yesterday why Zach Evans should be a priority add on waivers this week, but since then the team signed a familiar face, Darrell Henderson, as well as former Dolphins RB, Myles Gaskin.
Considering this quote from McVay about the backfield and Henderson’s familiarity with the offense, I would also not be shocked if he led the team in carries this week.
Still, I remain most optimistic about the intriguing rookie I encouraged stashing a little less than a month ago. Everyone else in this room is just a guy, but Evans has the talent and profile to put up a big fantasy day if given the opportunity.
🦅 The Eagles signed Julio Jones
After Philadelphia placed WR Quez Watkins on IR with a hamstring injury, the team was in the market for a WR.
They ended up settling on Julio Jones, a seven-time Pro Bowl WR, and former teammate to Olamide Zaccheaus (and I suppose A.J. Brown, too).
The 34-year-old, who has only played 29 games over the past three seasons, is unlikely to make a fantasy impact unless there’s another injury in the Eagles WR room, but feel free to add him to your fake football team for a veteran locker room presence and glue guy…
🧀 The Packers signed James Robinson
Despite so much interest from so many teams, Leonard Fournette remains a free agent.
James Robinson, however, is now a member of the Green Bay Packers:
It sure does feel like Robinson, the former Jaguars/Jets/Patriots/Giants RB, has now played for every single NFL team.
It’s very unlikely Robinson will make a fantasy impact in Green Bay, but we’ll be rooting for him.
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Regression is a helluva drug in fantasy land – so it’s important to discern which early-season phenoms are here to stay, and which might have already put forward their best performances of the season.
What follows is a breakdown of what players have produced the most above expectation and whether or not we should expect their absurd efficiency to sustain throughout the rest of 2023. Take it away, Ian…
🐬 Raheem Mostert, RB - Dolphins
The 31-year-old speedster has already racked up 574 total yards and 11 TDs (!) in just six games, good for a 17-game pace of 1,626 yards and 31 TDs. Not too shabby!
Yes, Mostert has achieved a lot of this with nothing other than hot, nasty, badass speed. His top speed of 21.62 miles per hour on this 43-yard TD is the fifth-highest mark by any ball carrier in 2023, while his 23.09 and 22.73 MPH marks from 2020 remain the top two fastest recorded times since Next-Gen Stats began tracking the metric in 2018.
Also yes, Mostert deserves credit for posting top-six rates in both missed tackles forced per rush (0.33, No. 3 among 53 qualified RBs) and yards after contact per carry (4, No. 6).
Next-Gen's No. 4 RB in rushing yards over expected per carry (+1.71): Mostert has been great even independent of the Dolphins’ ridiculously fantasy-friendly offensive environment.
The usage here dipped a bit when De’Von Achane (knee, IR) was coming on, and the eventual return of Jeff Wilson (finger/midsection) could lower the week-to-week ceiling just a bit. It'd make sense if Mostert doesn't boom quite as frequently in upcoming tough matchups against the Eagles, Patriots, and Chiefs.
That said, Mostert will continue to warrant weekly upside RB1 consideration as long as he remains in line for 15-plus touch workloads inside of the game’s top-ranked scoring offense.
Seemingly the only thing capable of slowing down the Dolphins is the wrath of the injury Gods; selling high – and I mean high – is only really recommended on rosters with a true need to add extra high-end pieces across multiple spots.
💫 Nico Collins - WR, Texans
This C.J. Stroud-led passing game is smashing preseason expectations at the moment, thanks in large part to Collins stepping up as a legit No. 1 WR through six weeks of action.
Seriously, it’s tough to find an advanced metric that paints the third-year talent as anything other than one of the league’s most efficient players at the position:
- PFF Receiving Grade: 87.3 (No. 6 among 64 qualified WRs)
- Yards per route run: 3.01 (No. 3)
- Yard per reception: 18.9 (No. 2)
- Passer rating when targeted: 135.5 (No. 4)
Hell, Collins (+3.4) is tied with Deebo Samuel (+3.4) for the most yards after the catch above expectation this season.
The eye test backs up what the numbers are telling us: Collins is balling.
Similar to our discussion on Breece Hall, the warranted optimism surrounding Collins’ ability to keep on keeping on down the stretch boils down to the reality that his volume should be at an elite level moving forward, even if he experiences a decline in efficiency.
While teammate Robert Woods surprisingly holds the team lead in total targets (43 vs. 42), nobody on the Texans comes close to his 30.5% air-yard share – a mark which is on par with fellow early-season phenoms like Puka Nacua (32.2%), Adam Thielen (31.5%) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (30.6%).
There is potential for this to turn into more of a 1A/1B/1C situation with Tank Dell (concussion) back after the team’s Week 7 bye; just realize Collins is fully deserving of that 1.A spot thanks to the reality that he’s been the Texans’ best skill-position talent all season long.
Maybe Collins doesn't quite maintain his standing as the WR14 in PPR points per game the rest of the way, but the talent he and Stroud have displayed makes it tough to see him falling out of the WR2 ranks throughout the rest of 2023.
MORE on the league’s most efficient players
🙏 Will Trevor Lawrence be ready for TNF? Good sign.
🚑️ Updates on CMC and Deebo. The extra day should help.
📊 The Biggest RISERS and FALLERS so far this season. Will these team trends continue?
🍑 Jalen Hurts on 4th and 1. I laughed.
🚀 Tight ends may be…dare I say…back? These ones are on the brink of breaking out.
🐦️ Could Kyler Murray return soon? Sounds like it.
⚡️ The viral Chargers fan has skeletons in her closet. Uh oh.
🎤 The Bears new QB has some pipes. Raiders lose by a million.
🤣 If celebrities were allowed to coach. Arnold, be cool.
🎯 Ohio State QBs in the NFL. Accurate.
🐬 Mike McDaniel mic’d up. Always a treat.
Week 6 is in the books! Cooterdoodle is back to walk us through the fantasy landscape from a buy, sell, hold perspective…
🛒BUY
📈 Chris Olave, WR - Saints
I told my husband, a fellow Chris Olave manager, about the players I was going to write about this week. When I mentioned Olave, he looked at me like I was crazy. “Buy him? Why would you tell people to do that?”
And I get it. The Saints have not looked good. Olave managers have not felt good. But… buying low on Chris Olave can.
The numbers still say that Derek Carr can make something out of his number two wideout. Air yards mean something, right? End Zone targets mean something, right? What about double-digit targets?
Managers are down on their luck and if the Saints can get on the same page out on the field, there’s a clear path to Olave being a direct beneficiary. I’m taking that gamble.
Takeaway: Numbers, don’t fail me now. I really want to prove my husband wrong.
📈 Puka Nacua, WR - Rams
I’ve talked about Puka Nacua quite a lot this season. So, I’ll keep this one very short… unlike my list of reasons for buying Puka. But I still want to make this catchy… like Puka Nacua’s hands. And much like Puka Nacua… I’ll be quick.
So I’ll just leave you with this:
Takeaway: Takeaway? Yes! Take Puka away from your leaguemates!
🛒 SELL
Sometimes there’s bad writing on the wall, even when a player has been performing. It’s time to think about selling:
📉 Elijah Mitchell, RB - 49ers
“Cooter, you want me to sell a healthy RB, who has the opportunity to be the number one guy in his backfield?”
I get the skepticism. The NextManUp bug is biting at your heels. You’re working with an already depleted pool of RBs due to injuries, in an already depleted player pool due to BYE weeks.
But I need you to recognize that everyone is desperate. Everyone wants the next man up. But be cautious! We saw what happened when the NextManUp bug bit after Week 6. Fantasy managers ran to the waiver wire for Emari Demercado who ultimately gave them a total of 17 yards.
I’m not saying Mitchell will only get to carry the ball two times in Week 7. But I am saying that some of your league mates might be expecting Christian McCaffery-esque fantasy points. And that screams “sell high” to me.
Given the likelihood that Mitchell and Jordan Mason share some of the workload again and… well… neither of them are CMC, you can position yourself to trade for a more consistent, long-term starter.
Takeaway: Sell high on the idea of Elijah Mitchell.
More Players to Buy, Sell, or Hold for Week 7
