Hot Dogs. Hot, juicy, delicious, dependable. The Kia Sorento of roasted meats.
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by The Fantasy Life Magazine.
Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest: Bet an Aussie this Fourth of July.
Watercooler: Can Davis Thompson claim victory at Deere Run?
MLB Wednesday: Lay the juice with the Twins.
It’s 7/3. Take it away, Geoff Ulrich…
Let’s get one thing straight. If any delicacy deserves to be recognized on July 4th, it’s hot dogs. Will they win you first prize at the local cookoff? Probably not. Are they healthy? (That was rhetorical). But have you ever heard a child under 12 complain about getting a hot dog for dinner? Didn’t think so…
That’s why America created the perfect way to celebrate this wondrous mystery meat in Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest: a competitive eating contest held at Nathan’s restaurant on Coney Island, New York, every July 4th.
If you’re new to competitive eating — or just hadn’t developed enough degeneracy to bet on a hot dog eating contest in previous years — here is a quick breakdown of how the event works.
Each contestant must attempt to eat the most hot dogs (plus buns) within the 10-minute eating period.
Puking, ralphing, and, in general, any vomiting are grounds for an immediate DQ.
They do count quarters and halves, so it is possible to end on a total of .25 or .50 (something to keep in mind if you are creating Pick’em tickets on Underdog).
This year’s men’s event also has a little controversy surrounding it after 16-time Nathan’s winner and defending champion, Joey Chestnut, was banned from participating. Chestnut signed with a rival hot dog maker (no, I am not making this up) and will now have to sit the 2024 version out.
The 40-year-old Chestnut would have likely gone off as at least a -4000 favorite, so his removal has created some chaos in the odds. Currently, 49-year-old Geoffrey Esper, who finished second to Chestnut in 2021, ‘22, and ‘23, is the favorite, but he’s down to just -105 on DraftKings (51.22% implied probability) and far from the sure thing Chestnut was.
I broke down my favorite way to bet this event below, but first, I laid out the quick and dirty on the three favorites to replace Chestnut at the top this year.
🌭 Geoffrey Esper (age 49) (-105; DraftKings)
PB: 51 hot dogs
2023 result: 2nd, 49 hot dogs
Esper is the favorite and was as short as -200 at one point to win this event (once Chestnut got ruled out). He’s finished 2nd at this event each of the past three years, so if ever there was a time for him to step up and claim glory, this year would be it.
🌭 James Webb (age 35) (+145; DraftKings)
PB: 47.5 hot dogs
2023 result: 3rd, 47.5 hot dogs
Webb is relatively new to the hot dog scene, as this year will be just his third competing at Coney Island. However, the Australian is a seasoned competitive eater and certainly has the advantage of youth over Esper.
🌭 Nick Wehry (age 35) (+650; DraftKings)
Wehry is another veteran of the competitive eating scene to take note of. The 35-year-old has finished fourth at this event the last two seasons and does hold a world record for eating 50 hard-boiled eggs in three minutes and four seconds.
He’s also engaged to woman’s champ Miki Sudo, so he’ll have a good coach in his corner at the very least.
🦘 Best Bet: James Webb Outright (+180; bet365)
Esper is admittedly the deserved favorite this year with Chestnut out. Last year he finished second, downing 49 hot dogs, two short of his best. However, the 49-year-old is no spring chicken, and it’s a little worrisome that he missed his PB by two in 2023. The last time he cracked 50 hot dogs in this event was back in 2021.
In contrast, we have Webb, who is a competitive eater from Australia and has won some big competitions in other food arenas. Just a few weeks ago, he won the Salvation Army National Donut Day by downing 70 glazed donuts in 10 minutes.
He’s relatively new to the hot dog scene but is only 35 years old and set a PB at this event last season of 47 dogs – six better than he managed in 2022, which was also the first year he competed at Nathan’s.
To paraphrase John C. Reilly from Step Brothers, I will take the young calf over the old bull. Webb feels like he’s surging, while Esper now has to feel a little heat as the event favorite. Considering the +180 odds we’re getting (35% implied probability), Webb feels like the right side to be on for this July 4th.
Click here for a July 4th Pick’em Play
🚜 If you like birdies, tractors, and long-shot winners, this is your week. Best bets for the John Deere Classic.
⚾ Death, taxes, CMC TDs, and now, Aaron Judge homers. The Yankee slugger delivered again for bettors.
👑 The King returns. LeBron James resigns with the Lakers. The Bronny/Lebron same-game parlays are going to be lit next season.
🤠 End of an era. Klay Thompson is headed to Dallas. The Mavericks landed the sharpshooter with a 3-year deal.
💰 End of an era, part deux. Steven Stamkos is headed to Nashville. The Predators spent like drunken sailors on Monday.
🐃 The Deion Sanders effect is still… in effect. Bettors are dialing up Colorado in the futures markets once again.
👋 The USA is Uru-gone from the Copa America. Uruguay completed the upset and eliminated the favorite Americans.
🦁 Is Sam LaPorta worth the price this year? All the Detroit Lions fantasy football talk you need, right here.
With an early slate looming on the Fourth of July, the MLB has 15 night games dialed up for Wednesday. Matt LaMarca breaks down some of his favorite betting opportunities for July 3.
⚾ Minnesota Twins ML vs. Detroit Tigers (-165; BetMGM)
The Tigers were a surprise to start the year, jumping out to an 18-13 record at the start of May. However, things have gone downhill since then. Their offense has been a disaster, with the team ranking 26th in wRC+ since May 1. Their pitching has been good enough to keep them relevant, but if they’re not getting a productive outing from their starter, they’re going to struggle to stay in games.
That should be the case on Wednesday. They’ll send Keider Montero to the mound for his third MLB start, and things haven’t gone well in his first two. He owns a 9.35 ERA and a 4.62 xERA, and the Tigers have dropped both contests.
He’s going to have his hands full with the Twins, who are eighth in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season. They’re also entering this contest in good form, ranking second in that department over the past 30 days.
On the other side, the Twins will hand the ball to David Festa. Festa is also a young starting pitcher, and he’ll be making just his second MLB start. However, Festa was a Top 100 prospect, and he’s excelled at every level of the minor leagues. He should be able to bounce back from a rough first outing against a friendly opponent.
