I Think You Should Leave your drafts with this Saints RB...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
- The rookie RB going overlooked
- OverReaction Monday: Handcuff RBs to target
- Where is DeAndre Hopkins going to land?
- Way Too Early: Week 1 First Look
- It's 6/5. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
There aren’t too many ADPs (average draft position) right now that are egregiously mispriced, but one that continues to perplex me is Saints rookie RB Kendre Miller.
Since Underdog launched their flagship contest at the end of April, Miller hasn’t budged from the 12th and 13th rounds of drafts despite plenty of buzz around the team’s plans for him in Year 1.
The case for Miller in the double-digit rounds of drafts is fairly simple:
Rookie RB sweet spot. Over the years, this exact range of fantasy drafts has produced league-winning RBs. Think Kenneth Walker last year, Nick Chubb in 2018, and coincidentally, his backfield mate, Alvin Kamara, in 2017.
An immediate path to production. Normally rookie RB production takes a little time to marinate, but Miller could see touches right out of the gate, with Kamara likely facing a suspension. His only other competition for touches would be journeyman plodder Jamaal Williams.
Arbitrage pricing on buzzier rookies. Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet (more on him below from Kendall) and Dolphins RB Devon Achane both go multiple rounds ahead of Miller in drafts despite a much less obvious path to touches.
And all of this is even before we factor in the chance that he might catch the ball much more at the NFL level than he did at TCU.
Listen to this recent conversation he had with Matthew:
I mean, c’mon. The dude grew up wanting to be a WR, idolizing Jerry Rice, and would have zero pass-catching competition during a Kamara suspension???
I’m really having trouble poking holes in Miller as anything but a slam-dunk selection in drafts right now. He belongs right alongside these other backs, if not a smidge earlier:
What am I missing??
If you figure it out, drop by my office hours tomorrow at 3:30 pm ET in the Fantasy Life Discord to let me know…
Actually, drop by anyway.
We're humans who play fantasy football, which means we are prone to overreact. Today, Kendall explains why you should hope for the best, but plan for the worst...
Look, we’ve all been there.
You drafted the PERFECT fantasy team after countless hours of research coupled with sleepless nights, and now all you have to do is sit back and watch your team flourish. Then, in the middle of an otherwise picturesque season, injuries pile up, and then before you know it, you’re eating a dozen uncooked hot dogs as your fantasy punishment. Yikes.
When drafting this offseason, it’s important to pinpoint backups that could possibly carry your team and secure valuable playing time if a starter gets injured or isn’t playing up to team standards. Let’s go through some of the best running back handcuffs to target…
🥈 Jaylen Warren
Last season, Najee Harris was already somewhat of a fade because of the departure of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the Lisfranc sprain he suffered during the preseason.
ENTER JAYLEN WARREN
During the second half of last season, Warren was given more work and outperformed Harris. He saw at least a 30% snap rate in six of his seven healthy games following the team’s Week 12 bye. So, while it’s unrealistic that head coach Mike Tomlin would let Warren take over the backfield right away, he gave us reason to believe that he will be productive when given the opportunity.
Ian Hartitz has Warren ranked as RB43 and has drafted more Warren than any other player at the position thanks to his “cheap and elite handcuff upside”.
🥈 Zach Charbonnet
Alright, as a Seahawks fan, this is painful, and all Kenneth Walker managers might want to shield their eyes, but we have to talk about it.
Seattle drafted Zach Charbonnet 52nd overall after finishing his career with 168 yards per game and 2.90 adjusted total yards per team attempt.
The pick made fantasy football enthusiasts squirm because the Seahawks fed Walker at least 15 touches in each of his 10 non-injured starts, including six games with 20-plus carries in 2022.
Adding Charbonnet seemingly takes away from Walker, but we still need to be prepared in case of injuries, and the newest addition could be a league-winner.
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To make it even easier, read on below to see who Matt LaMarca is targeting in Week 1 👀
👋 Do the Browns actually want DeAndre Hopkins? Not so fast…
💤 A sleeper rookie RB to keep tabs on. There’s opportunity in the backfield.
🎸 Trey Lance catching strays from 90s bands? Oof.
🎯 The right matchup is critical. Ian & Chris dive deep into Week 17.
🐐 The QBs who always cleared their season win totals. Elite trio right there.
📆 The final days of Dalvin Cook in Minnesota…it’s only a matter of time.
🙌 Can I interest you in Treylon Burks making a grown-ass man catch? Put it on repeat.
🥋 The team implementing some Jiu-Jitsu workouts with their QBs? I’m here for this.
We know, we know...Week 1 is a ways away, but if you want to get an edge in the betting markets you need to be one step ahead. Today, Matt LaMarca looks at a game he likes...
🔮 Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints (-3.5) – 42.5 total
💰 Pick: Titans +3.5 (-110; BetMGM)
The Saints have been blessed with one of the easiest schedules in NFL history this coming year. The Falcons also have a very favorable schedule – such is life in the NFC South – but the gap between those two squads and the rest of the league is massive (per Sharp Football):
New Orleans will start the year with a winnable matchup at home against Tennessee, but I think the Titans are being severely undervalued at the moment. Do they have the most talent in the league? Definitely not, but this team won 11 and 12 games in 2020 and 2021, respectively, before tumbling down to a 7-10 record last year.
Remember, the Titans were sitting at 7-3 last year before an epic late-season collapse allowed the Jaguars to steal the division. Ryan Tannehill missed time with an injury, and he clearly wasn’t the same player towards the tail end of the year. Will Levis will likely get his chance to start for the Titans at some point, but I would bet on Tannehill being under center in Week 1.
Mike Vrabel has also been outstanding as an underdog. He took over as the head coach in 2018, and the Titans have gone 25-17-1 ATS as underdogs in the four seasons since, which includes a record of 19-10 ATS when getting more than a field goal. Ultimately, the Titans are in a great spot in Week 1, and they’re a solid play for me at +3.5.
