Monday, bloody Monday...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by KFC:
- Injury roundup: 10 big RB injuries
- Buy/Sell/Hold. Cooterdoodle gives you market advice
- Sam's Waiver Wire Diving: Week 5 pickups
- Sam's Breakout Watch: Pickens & Hall
- It's 10/4. Take it away Peter Overzet
Yesterday was one of the most brutal injury days I can remember. Here's ten big injury situations and how to handle it in your fantasy leagues...
Javonte Williams goes down - The biggest news of yesterday was learning the Broncos RB suffered a torn ACL and will miss the rest of the season. It's a tough blow for an offense that was already struggling. Action item: Check out Sam's waiver wire piece below for the pickup. Also keep an eye out for Latavius Murray, who the team signed from the Saints practice squad.
Cordarrelle Patterson heads to IR - More crushing news for another struggling team. Patterson was playing great again, but will miss at least the next four games on the IR with a knee injury. Action item: Both rookie Tyler Allgeier and surprise cameo Caleb Huntley carried the ball ten times in Week 4. Check out more thoughts on Allgeier below, although both should be rostered.
Jonathan Taylor dodges a bullet - What was initially feared to be a dreaded high ankle sprain, fortunately, turned out to be a much more manageable "low" sprain. Action item: While good news, he's still at risk of sitting on a short week with the Colts set to play the Broncos on TNF. He was a DNP at yesterday's practice, so keep tabs on both Nyheim Hines and Phillip Lindsay.
Tua Tagovailoa to rest this week - As expected, the Dolphins QB will miss this week's game vs. the Jets. He remains in the concussion protocol. Action item: Teddy Bridgewater gets the start and is a decent streamer option this week. Tyreek Hill is bought in.
How confident is Tyreek Hill that he will be able to produce with Teddy Bridgewater at QB?
He looked me dead in the eyes and said: "I'll put up numbers with YOU"
— Marcel Louis-Jacques (@Marcel_LJ)
Oct 3, 2022
Treylon Burks has turf toe - The rookie breakout will have to wait multiple weeks, which is a big bummer for fantasy managers and the Titans. Action item: Depending on whether he ends up on IR, Burks might be a cut candidate throughout the bye weeks. Fellow rookie Kyle Phillips is probably the biggest beneficiary in his absence from a target bump standpoint.
Feel like we need a halftime break. This is depressing. Here are some orange slices. Ok, let's get back out there and have a strong second half...
Rashod Bateman has a foot injury - Coach Jim Harbaugh called it a "mid-foot" injury, whatever that means. Action item: Sounds like he's "day-to-day" fortunately, but we'll need to keep tabs as the week progresses.
Jamison Crowder out indefinitely - He suffered a broken ankle on Sunday and will likely miss the rest of the season. Action item: With Isaiah McKenzie dealing with a concussion, rookie WR Khalil Shakir should be added everywhere.
My initial read on the Bills selecting Khalil Shakir was that he'd compete in the slot. They're clearly developing him to play everywhere, but with Crowder now out and McKenzie w/ a concussion, Shakir might get some run there. Check out one of his comps from my prospect guide 👀
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB)
Oct 3, 2022
Jahan Dotson has a hamstring injury - This will sideline the rookie at least 1-2 weeks, per Ron Rivera. Action item: Not much to do here unless you are the biggest Dyami Brown stan in the world. Expect some more targets for Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas.
Brian Robinson nears return - How about some positive news? The rookie RB has been medically cleared and the team is activating him off the NFI list. Action item: They have 21 days to put him on the active roster, so expect to see him sometime in the next three weeks. He should be stashed everywhere.
Sam Darnold isn't walking through that door - Baker Mayfield has been so bad that we now have to sweat Darnold returning from IR. Action item: Unfortunately, it doesn't sound like he's close at all. Carry on.
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Each week during the season, Cooterdoodle walks us through the fantasy trade market from a buy, hold, sell perspective...
BUY
🛒 Chris Olave
The air is cold. Gumbo is on the stove. Olave season is here! The Saints are utilizing Olave in big plays, over and over again. Unfortunately, big plays don’t always materialize. Remember in Week 2 when 365 of his potential yards never came to fruition due to Jameis Winston’s overthrown balls? Ouch. But that kind of pain could bring you pleasure. The team rostering Olave may be squirmish and ready to ‘sell high’ after his first TD of the season.
Sure, New Orleans has a few kinks to iron out, but they continue to give Olave big opportunities, and it’s a ton of fun to watch. Even with the rotating INs and OUTs of Andy Dalton, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas, Olave is the guy they trust to get down the field and break away. If the Saints can tighten up their mistakes, he may be too high to buy in the coming weeks, and you’ll roux the day you passed up on Olave.
HOLD
⏳ Rashaad Penny
After Penny dominated on the ground with 151 yards and 2 TDs, this may feel like a quintessential “sell high.” However, his snap counts and usage tell a different story.
Could Penny be the lead back we hoped he would be?
If we look at the team’s RB usage in Week 4, there was very little competition from Deejay Dallas and Kenneth Walker III. Unless you are stacked at RB and have Penny rotting away on your bench, avoid the temptation to sell here. Let’s ride this wave together.
ON THE FENCE
🤔 Joe Mixon
Carries are the name of the game in fantasy football. If you want an RB that’s getting a ton, Mixon is your guy. Not only is he tied for 20th in yards amongst all RBs, but he is second in attempts. In fact, he’s only 2 carries behind Saquon Barkley, but who’s counting?
While the opportunities sound great on paper, Mixon isn’t doing much with them. He’s broken only a handful of tackles and can’t seem to gain extra yards after contact. Is it the Bengals' O-line, or is it Mixon? I’m getting nervous, but he’s got the opportunities in his favor. I’d start some trade negotiations and see what’s out there. We don’t have to break up with Mixon just yet, but I think it’s worth monitoring if this trend of inefficiency continues.
🔓 The rookie WR about to be unlocked. Kenny Pickett is now starting and he's here to save the day.
🛡️ The defense you don't want your QB to face. The toughest matchup in football.
🤷 An RB1? In this economy? It's rough out there, even for the top dogs.
🥴️ It's time to give up on this RB. I thought we weren't supposed to draft the other guy.
👻 Arthur Smith deserved this. Seriously dude, what's your deal?
✍️ Write a letter to the guy with Kyle Pitts. They need it.
🍒 Breece Hall says Zach Wilson has big what? He said what he said.
🏃 Bobby Wagner decked a streaker. So good.
Waivers are a crucial component of fantasy football, and nabbing the next league winner ahead of your leaguemates can help you edge out that title. Each Tuesday, Sam Wallace will highlight players to target in your redraft leagues.
➕ Tyler Allgeier
- Available in 84% of leagues
Rookie RB Tyler Allgeier continued to build on his success by topping 100 scrimmage yards on a day the Falcons went with a three-man committee. Allgeier (10 carries) split the work almost evenly with starter Cordarrelle Patterson (9) and Caleb Huntley (10).
Patterson was placed on IR on Monday, which means he’ll miss at least four games. Allgeier has a chance to take over this backfield but it remains to be seen how he’ll split work with Huntley.
FAAB: 20%
➕ Mike Boone
- Available in 99% of leagues
RB Javonte Williams suffered a major knee injury and will miss the rest of the season. RB Mike Boone, who saw his first rushing attempts of the season in Week 4, is in line for added opportunities. RB Melvin Gordon should assume the lead role, but he did cough up a costly fumble while Boone totaled seven opportunities.
FAAB: 15%
➕ Rachaad White
- Available in 73% of leagues
Rookie RB Rachaad White posted his best performance in Week 4. The Buccaneers trailed the Chiefs throughout the game which allowed White to tally five receptions on as many targets. His three carries matched that of RB Leonard Fournette but it was White who scored on the ground. The negative game script forced QB Tom Brady to attempt 52 passes and both RBs crested the 50-yard receiving mark.
White, a Round 3 pick, racked up 43 receptions last season at Arizona State and could work his way into a more prominent role.
FAAB: 7%
For the rest of Sam's waiver picks, check out his full run down here.
Playing safe ain't it. We need to make big moves to win our leagues. Today, Sam Holt shares 2 rookies she thinks are primed for a breakout...
👶 Breakout: The Rookie Bump
Heading into week 5, it's the rookies who are here to give you the edge.
🤯 George Pickens
Is it too early to celebrate? I don't think so. Kenny Pickett finally got his start in the second half of the game against the Jets. Sure he threw a few picks, but more importantly, he added a spark to fire up the offense. I also won several beer bets that Pickett would start by or before week 7, so cheers!
Back to the Steelers' progress on offense in Week 4, once Pickett was in, the switch flipped and activated George Pickens.
The receiver who lit up the pre-season is going to see a surge in usage with Pickett under center. Pickens showed a flash of his athleticism with Mitchell Trubisky in Week 3, where he made a one-handed catch for 36 yards that forced the argument, which catch was better between his and Odell Beckham Jr’s, my two cents: it’s Pickens.
The game script in Week 4 got Pickens more involved. During the first two weeks, Pickens never saw more than 3 targets. In week 3, he had 7, and this weekend he had 8 very effective targets for 6 receptions and 102 yards. After Chase Claypool’s performance, I can see a scenario where Pickens unseats him as WR2.
🤯 Breece Hall
For those who have been patient enough, you’re about to reap the benefits of drafting Breece Hall. It’s about time, too, seeing as you likely drafted him in the 4th round as your RB2.
Michael Carter started 2022 as the lead back, and in week 1, Carter led the jets backfield in all categories. He had 60% of the snaps, which led to 10 carries for 60 yards and seven receptions for 40 yards. Hall wasn't far behind in production — he had 45% of the snaps in week one.
Since then, the shift has been more noticeable. On Sunday, Hall had a snap percentage edge over Carter, with 45% to 29%. The growing confidence in Hall is best illustrated in his short-down distance opportunities. Carter went from 100% in Week one down to 25% in Week three, and this week Hall dominated the category with 100% of the short yardage opportunities, as noted per Dwain McFarland. From that, Hall delivered 15.8 PPR fantasy point OFF 17 carries for 66 yards and his first rushing TD.
Breece Hall's utilization is in RB1 territory, y'all. 😤
Week 4 👀👀👀
66% snaps
65% rush atts
61% route participation
47% 2-min offense
71% long-down distance
100% short yardage
100% inside 5
100% inside 10Data per PFF 🥇
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland)
Oct 2, 2022
Carter won't disappear entirely, but given the increased usage, Hall has all the support he needs to begin his breakout campaign.
