Giving us Toney to the Chiefs but taking away Chase is pretty cruel, fantasy gods...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Pristine Auction:
- The Chiefs are ready for a Super Bowl run
- JMToWin's Week 8 DFS Tips
- The Fantasy Life Podcast is LIVE
- Geoff's bets: Panthers & DJ Moore
- Matthew's Love/Hate for Week 8
- Linda's Kicking It: Top kicker plays
- The Walkthrough: Fire up the Eagles
- It's 10/28. Take it away, Peter Overzet
There truly is never a dull moment in the NFL.
Right when we thought the dust might be settling before the trade deadline, the Chiefs went out and pulled off a stunner:
Breaking: Kadarius Toney
To Chiefs, source tells @theScore.#Chiefs trade their conditional 3rd round pick and 6th to #Giants.
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report)
Oct 27, 2022
Despite having a deep bench of WRs, the Chiefs clearly needed another dynamic playmaker alongside Travis Kelce to solidify their status as a Super Bowl contender.
Kadarius Toney certainly fits the bill. But he comes with plenty of baggage.
Since getting drafted in the first round by the Giants in 2021, Toney has struggled with a myriad of injuries, an on-field temper, and a strained relationship with the coaching staff.
Toney, hilariously, says he isn't hurt anymore now on his way to Kansas City. And, of course, he was promptly roasted for the comment on Twitter afterward.
As for fantasy, it is hard not to be excited about this move. Toney goes from a lost season buried on the Giants' depth chart to a change of scenery with the best QB in football.
There are certainly scenarios where things don't pan out. However, the upside scenarios (like during the fantasy playoffs when he is fully acclimated) are tantalizingly obvious.
You are safe to cut Skyy Moore and Mecole Hardman, though I'd continue holding MVS just in case.
😭 Ja'Marr Chase out 4-6 weeks
Because we aren't allowed to have nice things, we also learned yesterday that Bengals star WR Ja'Marr Chase is dealing with a hip injury that will sideline him for 4-6 weeks. Although, there is a chance he is just built different and returns sooner.
Still, this has to be the most depressing week of the season between Chase and Breece Hall.
not ja’marr chase bro
— Linda™ (@Lindellions)
Oct 27, 2022
Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Hayden Hurst will step up in his absence, but this is a huge blow to an offense that was just hitting its stride.
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Josh Jacobs was rightfully the talk of the town last week, but it's starting to feel like people are sleeping on Davante Adams a bit. We currently have him ranked as our WR5 on the week, and the ceiling is massive vs. the Saints in a dome game with a 49.5 point over/under.
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JMToWin is a founder/developer of One Week Season, where we focus not only on preparing you for each unique slate, but also on teaching you the strategies and theories behind winning DFS play. Our team has millions of dollars in net DFS profit, and each week we strive to build the OWS Fam into a leaderboard-crashing unit. Become a part of the OWS Fam with OWS Free!
No one told me how difficult it was.
I could have figured it out — but honestly, I didn't want to. The longer I could go without recognizing that 'What I was doing was difficult,' the longer I could continue doing it.
First place. First place. First place. First place.
My first year in DFS was like that — to a point where a single "bad slate" (cashing in tournaments…but not finishing near the very top) could send me searching for answers.
"What did I do wrong?"
"How did I not win this slate?"
The competition has gotten sharper since then, and the hot streaks I used to go on are not even totally possible today. But the mindset that led to those hot streaks is no less powerful:
First place. First place. First place. First place.
🏆 PLAY FOR FIRST
If you ask the average DFS player if they "play for first place," they'll look at you like you're an idiot. Of course, they play for first place! But then, they will proceed to put together rosters with no real shot at a first-place finish. Rosters that are more focused on "collecting a bunch of good plays into one spot" than on the underlying elements that lead to first-place finishes.
As you attack the Week 8 slate, I encourage you to break away from the clumped-up group of rosters that are all built the same (incorrect) way. Focus on first place this week with a roster that:
A) chases ceiling rather than floor
B) gives you fewer things you need to get right in order to land that big score
C) directly leverages the over-certainty of the field
With this approach, you'll be able to take advantage of the fallout that occurs when everyone's "best-laid plans" go awry.
🤔 SOME ANGLES TO CONSIDER
As always, one of the clearest ways to build our own edge on a slate is first to understand what makes a particular slate unique. This week, we have a host of items we should be aware of before we begin attacking first place.
1) Sam Ehlinger Szn
Ehlinger is taking over at quarterback for the Colts — with this announcement coming after Week 8 pricing was set. Frank Reich said on Wednesday that the Colts don't want to be a run-heavy offense. They want to be a balanced offense, which should lead to Ehlinger getting a respectable number of pass attempts while also being put in a position to leverage his mobility.
It would be surprising if Ehlinger (33 rushing touchdowns in college) came out of this game with fewer than six rush attempts. And his ceiling on the ground is high relative to his price tag (8% of the salary cap on DraftKings; 10% on FanDuel). He's sure to be popular this week, which makes him one of the key decision points on the slate. If you build with Ehlinger, be conscious of what you're doing differently in other spots on your roster. If you build without Ehlinger, make sure you're grabbing a QB who has the upside to significantly outperform whatever Ehlinger does on Sunday.
2) Missing High-Priced Pieces
Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, and Joe Burrow are all missing from this slate, as are Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews.
One of the easiest ways to "differentiate from the field" (i.e., one of the easiest ways to build a path to first place) is to build with a different salary-allocation structure than most people. With no mega-priced tight ends this week and most of the expensive QBs missing, we'll need to be more intentional than normal about how we look to change up our salary structure in other spots on our roster.
3) Any Games To Love?
Of the 11 games on this week's slate, an unfathomable seven have an Over/Under of 43.5 or lower. This leaves us with only four games that carry moderately attractive totals:
44.5 — Giants at Seahawks
49.0 — Cardinals at Vikings
49.5 — Raiders at Saints
51.5 — Dolphins at Lions
We can hunt for upside in other spots. Still, one of the easiest ways to capture big scores this week will be focusing primarily on the teams and game environments capable of significantly outperforming everything else out there. Thus allowing your roster to outperform everything else that's out there…thus keeping you on track for first place.
First place. First place. First place. First place.
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📈 The ultimate buy-low RB & a QB to stash. Dwain has you covered.
🚀 This rookie WR is special. What a boss.
👌It’s Tony Pollard SZN. The Fantasy Life Podcast is LIVE!
☕ Adam Thielen's secret side gig? Smart way to keep your QB happy.
📉 Consider sitting this QB in Week 8. The pressure is going to be intense.
🤣 A day in Matthew's DMs. Lol.
💣 Holy trades, Batman. It's been a wild few weeks.
🧙♂️ Brian Daboll is an absolute wizard. So sick.
In between placing waiver claims and setting our lineups, we do a little sports betting around here. Today Geoff is here to give you his best bets of the week. All odds from our friends at BetMGM.
💸 Panthers -4
It pained me last week to go against our ATS-darling Falcons, but it worked (the Bengals easily covered), and we’re back to try it again. The Panthers were favorites in this game at around -1.5 on the look-ahead lines in the preseason but are going off here at +4.0.
Much like last week, the Falcons have some big injuries in the secondary, with AJ Terrell and Jaylinn Hawkins missing practice. Carolina has a mobile QB in PJ Walker, a low-pressure defense in Atlanta, and a great matchup for DJ Moore to exploit. Much like last week, the Falcons are also a big public bet, with over 60% of the bets coming in on Atlanta. Taking the points in a division game and fading the public again feels right here.
💸 Seahawks -3
Both of these teams have been huge surprises this year, but I do like siding with Seattle at home this week in a game with just a field-goal spread. New York is playing on the road for the third time in four weeks and has flown halfway across the world in that time frame. While they have been winning games, thanks to some key plays from Daniel Jones, their defense has also been getting shredded on the ground and come into this game ranked last in yards per rush allowed.
Jacksonville let the Giants off the hook last week, but with Geno Smith currently humming along with a 73.5% completion rate, and an 8.0 yards per attempt rate, it seems unlikely Seattle will do the same. Look for Kenneth Walker III to outshine Saquon Barkley and the Hawks to cover.
💸 Colts -2.5
The money in this game has been coming in on Washington pretty heavily all week. It will be Sam Ehlinger’s first-ever pro start, but the simple fact here is that the Colts are likely improving their chances simply by not having statuesque Matt Ryan under center. Ryan had been getting sacked at the fourth-highest rate in the entire league, and Ehlinger – who averaged well over 10-rush attempts per game in college – brings the scramble element that the Colts' offense has sorely missed.
The Colts, off a loss, have gone 17-10-1 ATS under Frank Reich since 2018, and the preseason look-ahead line here was Colts -5.0. Now that they have some versatility at QB – and the line has come down to -2.5 – Indianapolis is worth siding with in this one at home.
💸 Top 3 Player Props
- D.J. Moore over 59.5 receiving yards
- Darnell Mooney over 42.5 receiving yards
- Dak Prescott under 235 passing yards
Find out who Matthew is on this week in fantasy! Love/Hate is on NBC Sports Edge, and it's FREE!
It’s #LOVEHATE day! Week 8 is now posted and as always, it’s FREE. I hope you’ll read this one - this one is special to me. nbcsportsedge.com/article/matthe…
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Oct 27, 2022
Picking kickers can be a pain, but relax, we have our resident kicking expert Linda to help you make the right choice...
I have nothing positive to say about last week. The Chargers let me and anyone that listened to me down, the Colts came back to earth, and Jaguars struggled to get anything going. To sum up my three highlighted streaming options last week: down bad. We’re gonna get back on track this week.
🦵️ Jason Sanders (Linda's Rank: K6)
The Miami kicker has attempted several field goals per game in the last four weeks. The Dolphins are favored over the Lions this weekend in what is predicted to be the highest-scoring contest. In their last three games, the Lions are allowing an average of 3.0 field goal attempts per game. Sanders has logged a few uncharacteristic misses this season, but we’re shooting for the opportunity, and he should see plenty of it.
Sanders is rostered in less than 20% of Yahoo! leagues.
🦵️ Jason Myers (Linda's Rank: K9)
A double dose of Jason on the weekend of Halloween. Seattle has been a pleasant surprise this season on the back of QB Geno Smith. The Seahawks are averaging 3.0 field goal attempts per game in their last three games. Seattle is favored over the 6-1 Giants on Sunday. Myers has put up double-digit weeks consecutively since Week 3.
He’s rostered in about 50% of Yahoo! leagues, so you’ll have to be a little more lucky to find him on waivers, but if you do, he’s a solution to the kicker position this weekend.
I also like Graham Gano this week, but his name didn’t fit with the Halloween theme.
You can find my Week 8 kicker rankings at FantasyLife.com.
The Walkthrough is the most comprehensive matchups column in the fantasy space. Every Friday, Rotoworld's Pat Kerrane outlines all the critical fantasy football context for each and every game. Today, he shares a team he's excited about for Week 8...
🚀 The Eagles are set to smash vs. the Steelers
This week Jalen Hurts gets a Steelers defense that is quite poor against the pass, particularly at quickly getting to the quarterback; Pittsburgh ranks just 26th in quick pressure rate. Allowing quick pressure is the biggest weakness of the Eagles' passing attack. But if the Steelers aren't able to get to Hurts quickly, they could be in trouble against him, given that they rank 23rd in dropback success rate.
If Hurts has more time to throw, it could mean a big day for A.J. Brown. Brown's 10.4 aDOT isn't much higher than DeVonta Smith's 9.5, but he's been less involved in the screen game. Brown has seen 10% of his targets on screens, with Smith at 17%. And on non-screen routes, Brown has been absolutely dominant with a 2.86 YPRR. Among wide receivers with 100+ routes, only Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, and Stefon Diggs have been more efficient.
The Eagles appear to have multiple gears to their offense. But the primary method of attack, when they can protect Hurts and lean into the downfield passing game, runs through Brown. They are well-positioned to roll out a Brown-centric game plan this week, making him one of the best plays at any position.
Click here to read the full article.
