Can't believe we are getting deprived of a THUNDERSNOW game, smh...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter, brought to you by Visible:
- How to handle the Chiefs WRs
- The Fantasy Life Podcast is LIVE
- Geoff's bets: Fade the public
- Matthew's Love/Hate for Week 11
- JMToWin's Week 11 DFS Tips
- Linda's Kicking It: Top kicker plays
- The Walkthrough: David Montgomery, SZN?
- It's 11/18. Take it away, Peter Overzet
There are only two constants in the Kansas City Chiefs offense: Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce.
Everything else is a puzzle where the pieces are constantly being removed and shuffled around. But it's a puzzle we need to piece together because the fantasy upside is so juicy.
Here's everything you need to know about the Chiefs' skill position players headed into the weekend.
🧩 What's Up With The Chiefs WRs?
- 🚑 Mecole Hardman - Hardman was placed on IR yesterday due to his abdomen injury and an illness. He'll be out for at least four weeks, so the earliest he'd return is in Week 15. Unless you have a bye locked up, you can safely drop him.
- 🚑 JuJu Smith-Schuster - JuJu did not practice on Thursday and remains in the concussion protocol after he suffered a rough hit on Sunday. I'd be surprised if he's cleared in time to play Sunday.
- 💥 Marquez Valdes-Scantling - MVS returned to a limited practice yesterday after missing Wednesday with an illness. He should be good to go for Sunday. Both Dwain and Waz have him ranked as a boom/bust WR3.
- 🚀 Kadarius Toney - If the Chiefs had any plans to ease Toney into action, they won't have much choice without Hardman and JuJu. He had a nice fantasy day on just 44% of the snaps Sunday and is now poised for a big game Sunday vs. the Chargers as a WR2 with WR1 upside.
Great insight into Kadarius Toney and how great he’s been on/off-field for the #Chiefs.
Travis Kelce loves his GM: “I’m extremely happy that Brett Veach found a way, yet again, to get an unbelievably talented player in this building.”
🎥: @newheightshow
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report)
Nov 17, 2022
I'm not going to give him his own bullet (I've already suffered enough as a truther), but if Skyy Moore were ever to sniff any playing time, this would be the week. Justin Watson will likely be in the mix as well.
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The Walkthrough is the most comprehensive matchups column in the fantasy space. Every Friday, Rotoworld's Pat Kerrane outlines all the critical fantasy football context for each and every game. Today, he shares a RB he's excited about for Week 11...
🚀 It's David Montgomery SZN
The Bears' backfield is pretty clear-cut. With Khalil Herbert on injured reserve with a hip injury, the Bears should be willing to lean on David Montgomery as a workhorse. Montgomery's snap share has been 63%, but his share of team attempts is at just 40%. This is because the Bears have brought in Herbert specifically for running plays. He's only played on 37% of snaps, yet has 35% of the Bears' rushing attempts. In other words, Herbert's absence will open up a lot of opportunity for Montgomery, even if his snap share doesn't spike a ton from here.
One issue for Montgomery is that he has not been efficient as a rusher this season. But while that is definitely a concern, it might not matter much this week against a Falcons defense that ranks 26th in EPA allowed per rush and 28th in rushing success rate allowed.
More importantly, given his path to increased rushing volume, Montgomery may not need to be all that efficient to produce a strong fantasy outing. Montgomery has been decently involved as a receiver this season and now has a path to dominate rushing attempts. Unless Trestan Ebner plays more than expected, Montgomery's role this week should be similar to Josh Jacobs'. Montgomery would normally profile as a volume-dependent RB2... but in this matchup, he has an RB1 ceiling.
JMToWin is a founder/developer of One Week Season, where we focus not only on preparing you for each unique slate, but also on teaching you the strategies and theories behind winning DFS play. Our team has millions of dollars in net DFS profit, and each week we strive to build the OWS Fam into a leaderboard-crashing unit. Become a part of the OWS Fam with OWS Free!
😡 He made a mistake when he fired me.
Summer was drawing to a close, and there were about ten servers on staff who were set to head back to college.
Two weeks later (in an act that surely stung him miserably), he called and asked if I was interested in coming back.
We have a tendency as DFS players (as humans, really) to want our decisions to be resolved. It feels good to decide on Thursday or Friday who we'll be rostering that week and to treat any further thoughts as "second guessing." But the truth is, every NFL week presents the DFS equivalent of "ten servers on staff set to head back to college" — compelling us to have patience before we fire our shots on final decisions.
In real life, my boss got to fire me again.
In DFS, we don't often have that chance.
Here are two spots where I'll be willing to wait until late in the week before making decisions on what my rosters will look like this week:
❓ How popular will Mark Andrews be?
With the bye week behind him, Andrews appears on track to return from the shoulder injury that kept him off the field in Week 9. Andrews has slate-breaking upside, but he's A) the only real slate-breaker available at tight end (which could elevate his popularity), and he's B) set to take on a Carolina team that faces the seventh-lowest opponent pass play rate in the NFL. Gus Edwards appears on track to play this week, which is quietly noteworthy, as Lamar Jackson has failed to top 26 pass attempts in six of the last seven games Gus Gus has played (including four games in which he failed to top even 18 pass attempts!). If Andrews comes in with high projected exposure, I may be underweight on him this week — hoping the Ravens lean into the run in this spot. However, if tight pricing and injury concerns leave Andrews underutilized by the field, I'll swing the other way in an attempt to access his otherworldly ceiling at a rate above the field.
❓ Jerry Jeudy's health
Over the last month and a half, only three teams have allowed a higher percentage of opponent wide receiver production to flow through the slot than the Raiders, making this a smash spot for a "Broncos slot receiver."
However, because of the LOLZ around this offense and the uncertainty around the "Broncos' slot receiver," we could see very low ownership on this high-upside spot. Jeudy got hurt on the first play in Week 10, leading to Kendall Hinton playing 77 snaps — 43 of which came from the slot. Hinton saw five targets, going 4-62-0, and it's unlikely our competition will feel particularly confident saving salary here if Jeudy misses. On the flip side, if Jeudy plays, concerns over his ankle will likely leave him low-owned. I'll be happy to take some shots on either guy in tourneys this week.
This sets up as a challenging week for most DFS players.
We can position ourselves to benefit from this week's challenges by waiting. You may still end up firing shots at the players you have in mind, but give yourself an opportunity to gather a complete set of information first — or you may end up firing shots at the wrong guy at the wrong time.
Code LIFE60 saves 60%(!!!) on rest-of-season access to OWS subscriptions.
❄️ Bills/Browns game moved! The total is back on the rise. It doesn't matter for Amari, though.
👑 The young Peyton Manning?? Many are saying it.
💊 Dealing with injuries to Cooper Kupp & Dallas Goedert? Marcas & Dwain are here to help on the Fantasy Life Podcast
😕 Bizarre practice reports for a top TE. This is a tricky situation.
🌋 Is it finally time for this Rams WR to break out? Find out what our betting expert is saying.
📈 Things are trending in the right direction for this RB. What happens to Tony Pollard?
🤯 What happened to Russell Wilson? "He's losing his mind."
🦅 The Eagles are loading up. Another big move.
🐬 Tua with Mike McDaniel is a thing of beauty. What a difference a year makes.
🍦 The best nickname in football. Incredible.
🤔 Things aren't looking great for this star RB. Find out why his matchup is less than ideal.
In between placing waiver claims and setting our lineups, we do a little sports betting around here. Today Geoff is here to give you his best bets of the week. All odds from our friends at BetMGM.
💸 Bengals -3.5 (-115)
A lot has changed since the Week 1 meeting between these teams. The Steelers are now starting a rookie QB and Joe Burrow (who turned the ball over five times in Week 1) enters this game with 16 TDs and just 2 INTs in his last eight games.
The Steelers' weakness in the secondary (they rank second-to-last in fantasy points allowed to WRs) should be exposed this week by Burrow and Tee Higgins, who has averaged 71.5 yards and 0.5 TDs against Pittsburgh in four career games. The public likes Pittsburgh at home, but the Bengals are an incredible 12-4 ATS as the road team under Burrow since the start of 2021. Take the Bengals to cover and get some revenge in Week 11.
💸 Cowboys -1.5(-110)
Despite the loss last week, Dallas has been a betting marvel in these spots over the last few seasons. They currently hold a 10-3 ATS record as the away team and a 5-1 ATS (against the spread) record as an away favorite since the start of 2021.
As noted in the FantasyLife.com Rankings & Tiers article for Week 11, the Cowboys have been increasing their use of play action to get CeeDee Lamb better looks of late, and it’s paid off as Lamb is averaging 8 receptions, 113.5 yards and 1.5 TDs over his last two starts. Dallas ranks out as the superior team in most metrics and is top five in defensive DVOA against both the pass and run. With a close spread, it’s a great time to go against the building public sentiment in Minnesota and side with Dallas.
💸 Lions +3 (-110)
The Lions' offense enters this game averaging 24.3 points over their last three games. They’ve impressively done so without having the full services of D’Andre Swift, who put in a full practice this Wednesday.
Five of the Giants seven wins this year have come by six points or less and they enter this game dead last in rush yards against. The Lions are also back to being a solid cover team, having covered in each of their last three games (two of which they’ve won outright). Taking the points with Detroit is the play for Week 11.
💸 Top 3 Player Props
- George Pickens over 40.5 receiving yards -110
- Darnell Mooney over 43.5 receiving yards -115
- Marcus Mariota over 163.5 passing yards -115
Find out who Matthew is on this week in fantasy! Love/Hate is on NBC Sports Edge, and it's FREE!
It’s #LOVEHATE day! Week 11 is now posted and as always it’s FREE! This week’s column also has one of the craziest stories I’ve ever heard.
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Nov 17, 2022
Picking kickers can be a pain, but relax, we have our resident kicking expert Linda to help you make the right choice...
We’ve been rolling the last three weeks, going 5-of-6 on streaming options. Let’s see if we can keep the hot streak alive this week...
🦵️ Robbie Gould (Linda's Rank: K4)
If you picked up Gould last week, you can keep rolling with him this week. The 49ers kicker has attempted three field goals in two of his last three games. San Francisco is favored this week against Arizona, and they’re tied for the 4th-highest implied team total.
If you didn’t pick up Gould last week, I’d book it to your waiver wire. As of Tuesday, he was rostered in less than 40% of Yahoo! leagues. As I write this Thursday morning, that percentage has gone up to just over 50%.
🦵️ Cameron Dicker (Linda's Rank: K11)
Chargers kicker Dustin Hopkins is set to miss his fourth game since sustaining an injury in Week 6 against the Broncos. Dicker, a rookie, has been the Chargers' kicker for the last two weeks in Hopkins' absence. In those games, he's attempted multiple field goals, and the man they call "Dicker the Kicker" has been perfect.
The Chargers are an underdog vs. the Chiefs this week, but the game is tied for the highest over/under on the weekend. Dicker is rostered in less than 10% of Yahoo! leagues.
You can find my Week 11 kicker rankings at FantasyLife.com.
