Can you imagine if the Chiefs lost to the Patriots on Sunday…
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Buffalo Wild Wings:
- The Patriots are ready for a new QB and a new coach
- Week 15 Rankings & Tiers: Two smash plays
- QUICK HITTER: TNF Best Bet
- RBs to stash for the fantasy playoffs
- Freedman’s Favorites: Big names to bet on
- It’s 12/14. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
There have only been two interesting storylines revolving around the New England Patriots this year, and neither of them involved fantasy points.
The first question was whether they could tank their way into a Top 2-3 pick and land a franchise QB.
The other was whether Bill Belichick could survive the disastrous year.
The jury is still out on the former after they upset the Steelers on the road last week, but we are starting to get some clarity on the latter. And the answer appears to be no:
“When they came out of Germany, conversations I had that week made it very clear that a decision was made…They were going to play out the string and at the end of the year there would be a parting of the ways [with Belichick], for a variety of reasons.”
Tom Curran on NBC Sports
When asked about the rumors, Belichick delivered the spiritual successor to “We’re onto Cincinnati” that we didn’t know we needed:
“Getting ready for Kansas City” just doesn’t have the same ring to it, but I’ll take it.
Speaking of KC, the Patriots are 9.5-point home underdogs to a very upset Chiefs team:
New England is expected to get back WR Demario Douglas for this one, but there is really only one startable player for the Patriots, and his name is Ezekiel Elliott.
Our team has him ranked as a back-end RB2 if you want to chase the volume, and Matthew is even more bullish:
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It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 15 of the fantasy football season. Below you’ll find Dwain’s thoughts on two players set up for a big week. Find all of our positional rankings here.
💥 Wide Receiver
🥇 Tier 1 - A.J. Brown
After delivering four consecutive top-eight fantasy finishes from Week 6 to Week 9, Brown has notched WR72, WR23, WR12, and WR12 finishes in his last four outings. Over that span, he has slipped to 13.5 points per game (PPG), but his underlying utilization remains vibrant, averaging 33% of targets, 38% of air yards, and 48% of endzone looks.
His 9.5 targets average over that period is only 0.2 targets off of his season-long average of 9.7. Brown is due for a slate-smashing signature performance against a Seahawks' secondary, green-lighting the eighth-most passing yards per game (263). Wide receivers have dusted Seattle for the fourth-most PPR points this season at 38 per contest.
Wait – there is more.
The Eagles carry the fourth-highest team total on the slate as four-point favorites on the road. After dropping back-to-back games to the 49ers and Cowboys, look for Philadelphia to simplify their offense and pepper their No. 1 playmaker with as many targets as he can handle. This week has 150 yards and two receiving TDs written all over it for Brown.
Brown is a SMASH play as my WR2 and a top-four overall option.
💥 Wide Receiver
🥈 Tier 2 - Cooper Kupp
Fantasy managers had to endure a brutal five-game stretch from Week 7 to Week 12, where Kupp limped to a 4.9 points per game average, with Kupp and Matthew Stafford missing time or playing at less than 100% due to injuries. However, the 30-year-old WR appears to be emerging from his funk with WR17 and WR4 finishes, thanks to a 20.7 PPG average over the last two contests.
Over the last three games, the Rams passing attack has been on an absolute heater, with Stafford averaging 267 yards and 3.3 TDs passing despite difficult matchups against the Browns and Ravens. The Rams passing attack is performing as well as any in the NFL over the last month.
[Enter Commanders pass defense stage left]
Now Stafford & Co. get a choice matchup against a Washington secondary sanctioning the fourth-most receiving yards (278) and the most TDs (2.3) per contest through the air. Although they have yet to demonstrate the ability to cover anyone, they remain committed to playing man coverage at the third-highest rate in the NFL – what a time to be alive.
Expect Kupp and Puka Nacua to receive ample opportunities to shine in mismatch situations that Stafford will see presnap. I am ahead of industry consensus on both WRs this weekend but give a slight edge to Kupp as the Rams' No. 1 option against man coverage with a 32% TPRR.
Unfortunately, Kupp’s price tag never fully plummeted on DraftKings, and after the last two solid outings, he sits at $7,800, with Nacua following close behind at $7,300. If there was ever a week for a Rams double stack, it is this one, but we will need to find salary relief at other spots.
Kupp is a SMASH play as my WR9, and Nacau is my WR10. It will be difficult for both to pay off where they are ranked, but one could take a trip to the moon.
ALL of the Week 15 Rankings you NEED
The Fantasy Life FREE Bet Tracker is already loaded with a handful of plays for Thursday Night Football, and Matt LaMarca wrote a comprehensive breakdown of the best ways to attack this game. Looking for a peek behind the curtain?…
Per LaMarca, “I think the under is clearly the best option in this contest. The Chargers are coming off a 24-7 loss in their last contest, while the Raiders’ game saw just three total points. Overall, the under is now 4-1 in Raiders’ games with Antonio Pierce as head coach.
Since Pierce took over in Week 9, the Raiders defense ranks fourth in EPA/play. The Chargers offense is 26th in EPA/play over that time frame, so I’m not sure how that can realistically survive without Herbert. They have zero run game to speak of, so Stick is going to have his hands full trying to put points on the board.”
👜 Stash these RBs for the fantasy playoffs. They are one injury away…
🚑️ Will Nico Collins play this week? Here’s an update.
📺 Playoffs? Playoffs?! Everything you need to dominate Week 15.
🗺️ The NFL might send a game to South America. This sounds fun.
💪 The year of the backup QB continues on Thursday. Best TD bet for TNF.
✈️ Want to make Super Bowl plans? Here is the schedule for the next four years.
😅 Bad football is better than no football, right? Everything you need for TNF betting and the DFS showdown slate.
🗽 New York, New York. The city where dreams are made of.
🧨 The QB ready to explode in Week 15. It’s a smash spot.
🙏 Great news about Justin Jefferson. Please be true.
Every week, Matthew Freedman publishes a piece highlighting some of his favorite fantasy plays. Naturally, this piece is called “Freedman’s Favorites”. We told him to get more creative, to which he answered with a resounding “No”. Anyway, here are his favorites for Week 15…
🌟 Brock Purdy (49ers) at Cardinals
- 49ers: -13.5
- O/U: 48
- TT: 30.75
Since the Week 9 bye, the 49ers are 5-0 with 162 points scored, and Purdy has been on fire.
For the season, Purdy is No. 1 in AY/A (10.4), composite EPA + CPOE (0.215, per RBs Don’t Matter), and QBR (74.7, per ESPN). At +225 (Unibet), Purdy and Dak Prescott (+200, PointsBet) are deservedly the current frontrunners in the MVP race.
The Cardinals are No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (51.2%), and Purdy in the division is 5-2 ATS (35.7% ROI, per Action Network).
🌟 James Cook (Bills) vs. Cowboys
- Bills: -2.5
- O/U: 50.5
- TT: 26.5
Cook is yet to have a snap rate of even 70% in any game this year (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report), but his usage is sufficient (12.5 carries, 3.4 targets per game), and his efficiency is desirable (4.8 yards per carry, 8.9 yards per target). In only one game this year has he had fewer than 10 opportunities.
And since the team dismissed OC Ken Dorsey and promoted QBs coach Joe Brady to play-caller, Cook has 343 yards and two TDs on 43 carries and 16 targets in three games.
The Cowboys are No. 31 in defensive rush SR (43.5%).
🌟 CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) at Bills
- Cowboys: +2.5
- O/U: 50.5
- TT: 24
With a month left to play, Lamb already has his second consecutive campaign with 1,300-plus scrimmage yards.
He has been especially hot in the aftermath of the team’s devastating Week 5 loss to the 49ers, putting up 69-895-7 receiving on 96 targets and 6-63-1 rushing with a two-point conversion in eight games.
Lamb is the No. 1 red-zone receiver in the league, with 23 targets inside the 20-yard line.
The Bills are without No. 1 CB Tre'Davious White (Achilles, IR) and could be without FS Micah Hyde (neck).
🌟 D.J. Moore (Bears) at Browns
- Bears: +3
- O/U: 37.5
- TT: 17.25
Since QB Justin Fields returned to action in Week 11, he has 24-278-2 receiving on 32 targets and 3-20-1 rushing in three games. In total, Moore has 829 yards and eight TDs from scrimmage in his eight full games with Fields.
The Browns present a tough matchup on paper, but No. 1 CB Denzel Ward (shoulder) is no guarantee to suit up after missing the past three games. And even if he returns, he could be rusty after the lengthy layoff.
🌟 T.J. Hockenson (Vikings) at Bengals
- Vikings: +3.5
- O/U: 39
- TT: 17.75
An injury forced No. 1 WR Justin Jefferson (chest) from Week 14 after he missed Weeks 6-13 with a hamstring issue. Jefferson has a chance to return this week, but he’s not certain to do so, especially with one less day of rest, as the Vikings play on Saturday.
Since Week 6, Hockenson has 55-585-3 receiving on 77 targets in eight games.
Without SS Vonn Bell and FS Jessie Bates, both of whom departed this past offseason in free agency, the Bengals are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (13.2).
