Yeah sex is cool, but have you ever had a first-round bye in the fantasy football playoffs?
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by LMNT:
- Key takeaways from Monday night’s doubleheader
- Sheesh Report: Kadarius Toney sheesh of the year?
- Utilization Report: OBJ is BACK (kind of)
- QUICK HITTER: A top-2 RB checks in
- Justin Jefferson (chest) is considered day-to-day
- Week 15 Waiver Wire: Jake Brrr
- It’s 12/12. Take it away, Ian Hartitz…
Monday night’s doubleheader featured two surprisingly competitive games. The underdogs wound up barking, as the Giants took down the Packers 24-22 and the Titans defeated the Dolphins 28-27.
Both games were largely entertaining back-and-forth affairs before being decided inside the final two-minute warning — give rookie QBs Tommy DeVito and Will Levis all sorts of credit for their respective fourth-quarter comebacks, as well as Saquon Barkley (101 total yards, 2 TD) and Derrick Henry (51 total yards, 2 TD) for their multi-TD performances.
The three biggest fantasy-relevant storylines from all of the action:
🐬 Tyreek Hill (ankle) missed a heavy chunk of the game
The initial injury looked potentially brutal … then fine after Hill ran off the field … then not good again after he didn’t return until late in the 3rd quarter … then fine enough after he caught a few additional passes to finish with a 4-61-0 receiving line.
Getting banged up before returning is nothing new for Hill, he’s this generation’s closest thing to Julio Jones when it comes to getting banged up weekly before inevitably returning and pulling off his usual king shit.
Still, it'd certainly be ideal if the MVP candidate (more like offensive player of the year, but you could imagine) is 100% down the stretch ahead of TOUGH matchups with the Jets (No. 1 in PPR points per game allowed to WRs), Cowboys (No. 6) and Ravens (No. 12). Either way: Give the injury Gods a (rare) thank you for (seemingly) sparing arguably the game’s single-most electric player.
🔥 The Tommy DeVito legend continues to grow
From the celebration to the agent to the three-game winning streak, New York loves ‘em some Tommy DeVito – and why not?
Okay fine, the undrafted rookie hasn’t exactly LIT up the scoreboard every week during his four starts this season, but the bar wasn’t super high to begin with. Regardless, at least some level of credit is due considering the international superstar managed to make more than a few big plays during the comeback victory.
Longtime franchise QB? Probably not, but you better believe DeVito has earned himself MILLIONS of future dollars in the backup QB market – and is there really a better example of the American dream than that?
🍌 Miami’s backfield is a banana split
Or at least, you know, a regular committee split (sorry, I’m hungry).
Overall, Raheem Mostert (21-96-2 rushing) led the way over De’Von Achane (7-47-0 rushing, 5-24-0 receiving) in both production and underlying utilization despite the rookie continuing to largely make the most out of his opportunities.
Achane’s night could have been far bigger had Tua Tagovailoa not sailed what had the potential to be a significant chunk gain on a go route down the right sideline – if not an 85-yard house call.
Speaking of sheesh moments…
Things get weird during any given week of NFL football. Bad bounces, horrible calls, general miscommunication: Murphy’s Law was created to help describe what it’s like to manage a fantasy football team (Editor’s note: That’s not true, but you get the idea).
Lucky for you: Fantasy Life Resident of Sheesh Ian Hartitz is back to break down all of the week’s beyond-the-box-score, near-miss moments that simply made fantasy managers say, “Sheesh!”
😬 Jerry Jeudy had a sheeshful afternoon at the office
Last week this very column highlighted some of the missed downfield opportunities to Jeudy that Broncos head coach Sean Payton brought up to the media.
Not this week! Jeudy suffered three egregious mishaps during the Broncos’ win over the Chargers, letting a pair of downfield bombs bounce off his hands while also failing to get his second foot inbounds on what initially appeared to be an easy five-yard TD.
Both Jeudy and Russell Wilson could have had an extra 100-plus yards and a TD to their respective box scores without the sheesh. Alas, the 24-year-old talent’s incredibly disappointing 2023 campaign continues – somewhere Steve Smith Sr. is smiling.
While Jeudy might have done enough to capture sheesh player of the week “honors”, a different player undoubtedly made a much bigger individual sheesh.
😲 Yes, Kadarius Toney was offside. Also yes, sheesh
You’ve seen the play, and it’s quite literally the front-runner for sheesh of the year at the moment.
The initial uproar from head coach Andy Reid and the Chiefs was replaced by a Monday admittance that Toney never checked with the official … although it kind of looked like he briefly did?
Ultimately, Toney was indeed lined up offsides – and the officials accordingly nullified one of the coolest TDs the game has ever seen. Patrick Mahomes didn’t exactly take it well, telling Josh Allen after the game it was the, “Worst f****** call I've ever seen."
There were two more (far less consequential) TDs that also never actually happened because the officials decided to throw their stupid little yellow flags and ruin the fun of fantasy managers and anytime TD bettors alike:
Backup Bengals QB A.J. McCarron found Tee Higgins for a 10-yard TD. The only problem: Higgins shoved his coverage defender to make the reception in the first place, leading to a warranted OPI penalty.
Colts RB Zack Moss finally found the end zone on a 10-yard TD rush … only for the score to be nullified on a holding call by G Quenton Nelson. I am NOT a doctor, but this seemed like a pretty soft penalty.
🤯 Mike Evans got two feet down inbounds – but it wasn’t a touchdown
For good reason: His hand came down out of bounds before his second foot touched down inbounds. We’re talking about Evans being this close to saving his lackluster fantasy performance with a 20-yard TD.
Tampa Bay’s follow-up challenge was to no avail and they had to settle for the field goal. Luckily, Baker Mayfield’s fourth-quarter heroics lasted until the final whistle (for once) and the now-first-place Buccaneers managed to eat their sixth W of the season anyway.
More near-miss moments from a sheesh-filled Week 14
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- Anyone who wants better sleep
- Literally all humans
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Wild but true: It’s impossible for football players to score fantasy points without touching the ball. This makes utilization arguably the single most important factor when evaluating honestly anything involving fantasy football team management — especially start/sit decisions with the season on the line.
Lucky for you: Fantasy Life Director of Analytics Dwain McFarland is once again back to spread the good word on all of the latest, greatest changes in player usage from the last week of action. And of course: What it all means for Week 15 and beyond.
Presenting: The Fantasy Life Utilization Report.
🎉 Rashee Rice is finally on the verge of a full-time role
Rice has been a top passing game option for the Chiefs all season – his 26% TPRR is one percentage point ahead of Travis Kelce. Yet, the coaching staff hasn’t shown a willingness to deploy the rookie full-time, keeping him in a rotation with lesser talents like Justin Watson and Marquez Valdes-Scantling and gadget options like Kadarius Toney.
However, things changed in Week 14 against the Bills. Rice registered his highest route participation of the season at 82%.
Rice has averaged 19.7 fantasy points per game over the last three contests, and if his recent ascension in route participation sticks, that could continue. The second-round NFL pick has a 68% route participation since Week 12, demanding 9.7 targets and 36.7 air yards per contest.
Based on data since 2012, Rice’s comps averaged 16.6 points per game with a WR12 finish. Two of his closest comps were Chris Godwin (2022), with 15 points per game and Percy Harvin (2009), who averaged 18.1.
Outlook: Rice UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 territory and could challenge for WR1 status over the final weeks of the fantasy season.
👀 Odell Beckham Jr. is balling, but his role remains limited
The 31-year-old WR delivered 19.7 points in Week 14 against the Rams – his finest outing of the 2023 campaign. Over the last five contests, OBJ has been a target magnet, leading the team with a 30% TPRR (targets per route run).
Despite playing almost half the reps of Zay Flowers, Beckham has been the most productive Ravens pass catcher with 14 points per contest. Thanks to his high-leverage opportunities, the veteran has overcome the route limitations – Beckham is Baltimore’s No. 1 downfield threat (17.4 aDOT) and endzone target (40%).
If the Ravens ever decide to remove Beckham’s route governor, he could be a significant factor in fantasy. Unfortunately, the Ravens have a long history of rotating skill position players, and Beckham is in a three-way split with Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor.
Outlook: Beckham is a high-end WR3 with high-end WR2 upside if the Ravens put him in an every-down role.
🐃 Dalton Kincaid’s role withstood the return of Dawson Knox
After the loss of Knox in Week 7 to a wrist injury, Kincaid’s route participation surged. The rookie’s average climbed to 84% in six games without Knox – a 17 percentage-point increase over his 67% in the first six games. In our first data point with Knox back in the fold, Kincaid held his ground, posting an 88% route participation and a 19% target share.
Kincaid only totaled 7.1 fantasy points, but his seven targets aligned with his average of 7.6 in games without Knox. It was only Knox’s first game back, so this is a situation to monitor moving forward. However, Kincaid’s fantasy value appears intact as the No. 2 option in the Bills’ pass-first offense (plus 5% DBOE) behind Stefon Diggs.
Outlook: Kincaid remains a mid-range TE1.
More utilization notes you NEED for the fantasy playoffs
It’s Tuesday, which means it’s officially Week 15. To welcome in the new week of Fantasy Football, Matthew Freedman was up at the crack of dawn to make sure his rankings were ready for you before your morning coffee. Check out his full Week 15 rankings set here!
🚸 Patrick Mahomes says he regrets his postgame actions on Sunday. Think about the kids!
💸 A likely top-five, if not top-two, overall pick officially declared for the 2024 NFL Draft. Great day to be great.
🤝 Looking for help in the fantasy playoffs? The Add of the Week is a good place to start.
🏥 Surgery is “very likely” for this stud QB. Take my eyes but not his finger.
📈 We’ve waited all season for this. A rookie RB climbs the Week 15 ranks.
🚑 The Texans are hurt, dog. Concussion protocol here, and a strained calf here.
😅 Good news for fantasy football’s reigning overall WR1. Hurt not injured.
🤠 Third straight week with a new NFL MVP favorite. He’s earned it.
💰 Dez Bryant and Desean Jackson made a bet on the Cowboys-Eagles game. Pay up!
Playing competitive fantasy football in Week 15 means one of two things:
You made the playoffs (congrats!)
You are fighting for your life to avoid a last-place punishment
Either way: There has never been a better time to control the controllables and get those rosters in the absolute best shape possible. Let’s do the smart thing and listen to what Chris has to say regarding Week 15’s waiver wire top targets.
I’ll give the same general advice I wrote about before all of the bad weather games on Sunday.
Don’t freak out.
News (like the forecast and tweet threads about weather impacts) compels us to react. And we should. But a reaction doesn’t have to result in action. Reviewing our rosters, finding weak spots, and strengthening them (for a rainy game or a playoff run) requires the same approach you’ve used all season.
So, again, don’t freak out.
While we’ve still got injuries, and the stakes are higher, let’s review the waiver wire landscape yet again for the top pickups for Week 15.
Looking for recommended FAAB budgeting and even more Waiver Wire analysis? Head to our Waiver Hub to get all of that and more, for FREE!
🐅 Jake Browning, Bengals
After a rough start in Week 12 against the Steelers, Jake Browning has scored over 20 fantasy points in two straight games. Fortunately, for fantasy purposes, nothing’s fundamentally changed about the offense.
- DBOE Rate: 9.0% (Weeks 1-10), 7.0% (Weeks 12-14)
- Designed Run Rate: 5.0%, 2.9%
- Play-Action Rate: 23.0%, 25.0%
Browning has primarily kept his passes short (4.7 air yards per attempt) but also looked downfield with at least one pass of 20 air yards or more in all three starts. Plus, he’s involved in the rushing game. Not only does the Bengals’ QB2 have a 5.1% scramble rate (matching Joe Burrow’s 4% rate in healthy games), but Browning has also had a 2.9% designed rate. The result has been 38 yards on the ground and two rushing scores.
Accordingly, his efficiency (and the lack of No. 9 under center) has forced the Bengals’ coaching staff to incorporate more options into their passing game. They’ve used more two-TE sets (bringing Drew Sample and Tanner Hudson into our lives), with Browning still keeping Ja’Marr Chase the focal point of the offense. It’s not as potent as if Burrow were there, but for what we’ll need, Browning is worth an add if you just lost Justin Herbert.
And with his defense facing two backup QBs through the fantasy playoffs, Browning will have more shots to put up points over the next three weeks.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 20%
📈 Ty Chandler, Vikings
After Alexander Mattison got rolled up, Ty Chandler took over as the Vikings’ RB1. Chandler handled nine of 12 RB carries — no other RB got more than two. Minnesota’s RB2 had a 69.6% route rate (16 routes). The other rushers combined for three. And neither earned a target (Chandler got two).
Assuming Mattison is out, Chandler becomes a priority target. You may have better options already on your roster, but your opponent might not. And with matchups against the Bengals, Lions and Packers, Chandler will have favorable environments.
So, at worst, play to block your competition while getting a starting RB for the playoffs.
Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 35%
MORE waiver wire pickups to consider ahead of Week 15
