Don't let either Russ or Stefon Diggs cook...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Bud Light:
- 3 games and 2 teams to target
- The Walkthrough: The Sun God
- JMToWin's Week 17 DFS Tips
- Geoff's Bets: 2 games and 3 props
- Matthew Berry's Love Hate for Week 17
- Linda's Kickin' It: Top kicker plays
- It's 12/30. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
It's Championship Week, which means the start/sit dilemmas have been tossed in the pressure cooker.
If you listen to me and Kendall on Sirius XM during the week, you'll often hear me harp on "game environments" and specific "spots" for teams.
With so many injuries and backup QBs, game totals are low across the board. This means we need to be very picky with which spots we are targeting.
Here are three games and two additional teams I want to be loading up on in Week 17, whether in my season-long leagues or DFS.
🚀 Detroit vs. Chicago (52 point over/under)
This is the best game environment of the week and it's not particularly close. You got the most explosive QB on the slate in Justin Fields taking on one of the worst secondary's in football in the Detroit Lions. And the cherry on top? They'll be playing in the comfy confines of Ford Field—a location that has been lovingly dubbed by many as the "Coors Field of NFL" thanks to the many shootouts that have taken place there over the course of the season.
Everyone knows to start Fields and Amon-Ra St. Brown, but if you're looking to break ties, I'm open to getting exposure to this game via a bunch of other pieces as well (both sets of Lions and Bears RBs, DJ Chark, and Cole Kmet).
🚀 Green Bay vs. Minnesota (48 point over/under)
I typically don't love outdoor, cold weather spots, but this is the third highest total on the slate and both the Vikings (competing for the No. 2 seed) and the Packers (fighting for a playoff berth) are heavily incentivized to get a win.
Justin Jefferson is chasing records and T.J. Hockenson is red hot, but the Packers are also rounding into fantasy form. You can comfortably fire up both Packers RBs, as well as take stabs on ancillary pass catchers like Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs (especially if Christian Watson misses).
🚀 Bengals vs. Bills (49.5 point over/under)
I wrote about this game on May 16th in the newsletter and it still holds up:
This is what we call the regular season hammer–the final game of Week 17 where season-long leagues will be determined and best ball tournament champions will be crowned.
It's hard to ask for a better finale than Bills and Bengals. Two high-powered offenses who play fast and love chucking the ball. In this matchup you'll have two Top 7 QBs (Josh Allen & Joe Burrow) and three Top 10 WRs (Ja'Marr Chase, Stefon Diggs, and Tee Higgins) on display. It doesn't get better than that.
😕 Kansas City (29 point team total) & San Francisco (26)
Their AFC West opponents might roll over, but there's no reason to think the Chiefs and Niners won't hang big numbers in these spots.
Travis Kelce and CMC speak for themselves, but there's a CVS receipt length's list of players you can target on these teams. Even though both San Francisco and Kansas City spread the ball among their WRs, the potential for points is here. If you're looking for big upside swings, specifically as an underdog, feel free to toss darts on Brandon Aiyuk, MVS, or Mecole Hardman.
🍺 Bud Light 🤝 Fantasy Life
The Walkthrough is the most comprehensive matchups column in the fantasy space. Every Friday, Rotoworld's Pat Kerrane outlines all the critical fantasy football context for each and every game.
🚀 ARSB ready to win championships
This matchup sets up very well for Amon-Ra St. Brown, who continues to be the engine of the Lions' passing attack. St. Brown's target volume is extremely reliable. He's seen a target on 29% of his routes, the second-highest rate in the league behind only Tyreek Hill.
Unfortunately, St. Brown sees his targets at much shallower depths than Hill.
St. Brown's 6.5 aDOT ranks just 7th percentile among wide receivers. That makes things more fragile for St. Brown than for other high-end receivers. If the Lions' offense is struggling, he's a bad bet to save his day with a couple of big plays.
However, we can expect the Lions to effectively move the chains this week. And St. Brown is a lock to be heavily involved in the passing game. His 21% first read target rate ranks 96th percentile. With the Lions' offense set up for a strong outing, St. Brown is as good a fantasy play as you'll find this week.
JMToWin is a founder/developer of One Week Season, where we focus not only on preparing you for each unique slate, but also on teaching you the strategies and theories behind winning DFS play. Our team has millions of dollars in net DFS profit, and each week we strive to build the OWS Fam into a leaderboard-crashing unit. Become a part of the OWS Fam with OWS Free!
If you are reading this (you are!), one of three things is likely true:
1) Congratulations! — you have a fantasy team that's still alive in championship weekend.
2) Congratulations! — you are still grinding away at DFS, which means that even if you haven't (yet) locked in a profitable season, you still have some bankroll to play around with.
3) Condolences… neither of these first two is true, and you're punishing yourself by continuing to consume fantasy content.
Assuming you fall into one of those first two buckets, you should be proud of yourself for being here.
Assuming that you fall into that second bucket (the DFS bucket), I want to remind you that DFS is a game of "building up a sample size of +EV play" :: if you continue to build rosters with positive expected value each week (rosters that would "win money if we could play out this slate a hundred times"), you'll run into some weekends that pay for years of your DFS play.
We're not trying to win every weekend in DFS. We're trying to position ourselves to maximize our winnings when we do win.
Here are three angles I'm seeing for this week — toward building up that sample size of +EV play.
🤏 Underpriced Lions
Detroit ranks fifth in points per game and is playing at home (in a dome) in a must-win game against a Bears defense that has allowed the second most points per game in the NFL.
The Lions are one of only two teams on this slate with an implied team total north of 26.0 (Kansas City is the other), and several key members of this offense are still priced as though this is a "bad team that occasionally scores some points."
Pieces from the Lions will be somewhat popular this week, but most of them won't be popular enough.
🎭 Every Coin Has Two Sides
While the Lions' defense has been playing better of late, they have still given up the most points per game in the NFL this season, and they are now taking on the one-man wrecking crew that is Justin Fields.
Fields will not go overlooked this week, but he almost certainly won't be given the attention he deserves. Full stacks and over-stacks of this game (rosters that use four or even five pieces from this game) will be underutilized, with most of our competition likely dipping their toes into this spot with one or two pieces.
If this turns into the had-to-have-it game of the slate, rosters that placed a full bet on this spot will be best positioned to take down tourneys.
🐋 The Pocket That Could Swallow The Coin?
If this Bears // Lions game plays closer to the middle of its range of outcomes, is there a spot that could destroy rosters that were too focused on this game?
This is one of the critical strategic questions to ask this week — and while there is nothing on this slate that leaps off the screen, there are a few spots that could surprise us if everything comes together, including Cardinals at Falcons and Browns at Commanders (see the NFL Edge on One Week Season — free to OWS Free members — for deeper thoughts on these spots!).
Maybe these pockets will turn out to have holes in them, but if they don't, you could fill up your pockets with enough points to pay for your DFS play for years.
👑 The next great NFL QB has arrived. Now let's get him into the playoffs.
😕 What the hell is going on with Alvin Kamara? Weird stuff.
📌 Don't give Justin Jefferson bulletin board material. C'mon bro.
❓ What do we do with Jacobs & Adams? We got you.
👨🍳 Let's get Stefon Diggs a chef. Can't risk it.
🎥 When reality becomes fantasy. The fantasy football documentary.
🎁 Sam Darnold gives good gifts. Just ask his linemen.
🤯 A wild Tom Brady stat. That's a long time.
🎱 Can this WR keep it up? Signs point to yes in NY.
In between placing waiver claims and setting our lineups, we do a little sports betting around here. Today Geoff is here to give you his three best bets of the week. All odds from our friends at BetMGM.
💰 Commanders vs. Browns Under 40.5 (-110)
The Commanders decided to insert Carson Wentz back as starter for this game, and that’s likely good news for people who hate high-scoring games. Wentz and Taylor Heinicke have similar numbers on the season but Wentz has taken a far more conservative approach averaging just 6.5 Yards per pass attempt to Heinicke’s 7.2. That has also meant far less involvement for one of Washington’s best players in Terry McLaurin.
Terry McLaurin with Taylor Heinicke:
29% target rate
2.63 YPRRTerry McLaurin with Carson Wentz:
16% target rate
1.44 YPRROne target on 16 attempts last weekend from Wentz.
So weird...
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland)
Dec 28, 2022
Wentz will be taking on a Browns defense that has now allowed 17 or fewer points in four of their last five games. Cleveland’s own inefficiencies on offense should also wreck any potential shootout, as they’ve averaged just 4.4 yards per play over the last three games.
This is the second-worst mark in the league.
Washington got blitzed by one of the best offenses in the league last week but part of the issue in that game for Washington was turnovers which led to quick scores. Expect a more conservative approach this week with Wentz back at quarterback. His last four starts all resulted in games where the total landed at 38.0 points or lower.
💰 Colts +6.0
Teams who flame out in nationally televised, primetime games often get faded big time by the public the following week, and the Colts are no different. The Giants are one of the most publicly bet teams of Week 17, with over 75% of the early bets coming in on their side. Despite the multitude of people backing the Giants, this line hasn’t moved since the Monday Night game ended and feels like a good candidate to potentially even see some reverse line movement later in the week.
As for the matchup, Zach Moss did average 5.24 YPC last week and will face another poor rush defense in New York, which has allowed 5.4 YPC against this season – ranking them dead last in that category. His efficiency gave the Colts a chance to keep the score respectable late into the game against the Chargers, and he should be featured heavily in Week 17.
Despite the loss, the Colts defense held the Chargers to just 20 points and have had four of the six games played under Jeff Saturday decided by just a single score. As bad as the Colts looked last week asking the Giants to cover this big a number seems like trouble. Plug your nose and take the Colts to cover the +6.0 in Week 17.
💰Top Props for Week 17
- Geno Smith under 241.5 passing yards -110
- Cam Akers under 85.5 rush/rec yards
- Tyler Allgeier to score two TDs +500
❤️️ It's time for Love/Hate!
Yes it’s my birthday but it’s also #LOVEHATE day! Week 17 is up and, as always, is 100% free. This week’s column also includes my way way too early Top 50 for 2023. What did I get wrong?
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Dec 29, 2022
Picking kickers can be a pain, but relax, we have our resident kicking expert Linda to help you make the right choice...
Week 17. We did it.
I could almost shed a tear as another fantasy football season comes to an end. Before the waterworks, though, let’s win some championships.
There’s a treasure trove of streaming options this week. While your RB and WR studs may be sitting, your kicker studs are laced up and ready to go. I’m gonna see how many options I can fit into my allotted word count...
🦵 Michael Badgley (Linda's Rank: K7)
I know I recommended him last week, and it was a letdown. I won’t let that deter me, though.
The Lions are favorites, and BetMGM has the over/under set at 52, the highest over/under of the week. In their last three wins, the Lions have attempted multiple field goals each week. Badgley is rostered in less than 50% of Yahoo! Leagues.
🦵 Mason Crosby (Linda's Rank: K8)
The franchise record holder for most consecutive games as a Packer gets a juicy matchup this week against the Vikings. Minnesota has allowed double-digit points to the kicker position every week since Week 10. This matchup holds the third highest over/under of the week, currently set at 47, according to BetMGM. Crosby is rostered in just 4% of Yahoo! leagues.
🦵 Riley Patterson (Linda's Rank: K10)
The Jaguars kicker has attempted multiple field goals every week since Week 9 and Riley Patterson has been a top-10 kicker for three straight weeks. Jacksonville are favorites in their matchup against Houston this weekend. Patterson is rostered in less than 5% of Yahoo! leagues.
My full Week 17 kicker rankings can be found on FantasyLife.com.
