"Plan dates with the effort you plan your fantasy football..." (h/t)
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by KFC:
- George Pickens has that dog in him
- JMToWin's Week 3 DFS Tips
- Don't panic about CMC
- Geoff's bets: Pats & Derek Carr
- Linda's Kicking It
- Matthew's Love/Hate for Week 3
- It's 9/23. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
Thursday Night Football was slightly better than expected, but the shining moment came at the end of the first quarter when Steelers' rookie WR George Pickens made the catch of the year (decade?) (century??).
Seriously, look at this:
Pickens finished the game with only 3 total catches for 39 yards, but I have a feeling we'll be talking about this catch for a very long time.
Can we go back to George Pickens’ catch? Think there’s a case it was top five in NFL history. Lot of great catches, but I’m not even sure how a catch could be meaningfully better. Bending backward nearly parallel to the ground, adjusting to wind. Clean one-hander. It was art.
— Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch)
Sep 23, 2022
We shouldn't be surprised, though. On Tuesday, Pickens told reporters he's open "99% of the time," and it's hard to argue with that premise after watching his unbelievable contested catch on loop.
Unfortunately, the catch was the lone bright spot for the Steelers as they lost 29-17 to the Browns and moved to 1-2 with Mitch Trubisky under center.
Trubisky deserves his fair share of the blame, but Mike Tomlin also elected to punt down two scores with 4:30 left in the fourth quarter (yes, you read that correctly) because...well, I'm not sure why. Maybe he couldn't find a white flag to wave on the sideline?
I think I speak for all of fantasy nation when I say:
It's time to free Kenny Pickett.
And more importantly: it's time to let George Pickens cook.
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JMToWin is a founder/developer of One Week Season, where our community dominated DFS in Week 2 — taking down first place in FOUR(!) Major Tourneys while banking a heaping scoop of additional top finishes on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo.
My season was sinking. My running backs were awful.
And for the first time, I cared. It was eating me up every weekend.
Two wins and three losses.
Two wins and four losses.
Two wins…and I found Matthew Berry.
The year was 2009: my sixth year playing fantasy football, and my first year deciding it was something I "wanted to be good at" — though apparently, "wanting to be good at it" wasn't the final answer.
Up until then, I'd never really sought out quality fantasy content. I was a "rely on my own knowledge" type of person. (Look where that got me! — a roster in the gutter.)
But this Matthew Berry guy — this ruggedly handsome, hilarious scribe (Editor's note: We've heard good things) — kept mentioning in his articles some backup running back for the Kansas City Chiefs who was apparently waiting in the wings for his opportunity; this guy named Jamaal Charles, who at the time was behind Larry Johnson…but if just the right thing happened…
I picked up "backup running back Jamaal Charles" (along with Justin Forsett — a guy I had played against in high school who Matthew Berry had also talked up). And, within a couple of weeks, Charles had taken over the Kansas City backfield, Johnson had been kicked off the Chiefs, and my fantasy team was streaking toward a playoff appearance.
💪 "PREPARATION IS POWERFUL"
Early this week, I was watching the Week 2 post-game press conferences for all 32 teams (an incredibly valuable form of preparation in terms of understanding how each team wants to approach their games), and one of the interviews that stood out to me was Jalen Hurts' post-game presser on Monday night.
"Preparation is powerful," he said. "Belief is powerful."
And while this sentiment obviously applies to athletes, it also applies to fantasy players — both in season-long and DFS.
Our competition can so easily fall into the trap of "relying on their own knowledge,"; but the more we can separate from the pack in that area (the more we "prepare powerfully" with quality knowledge and foundational information), the more our results will follow.
When it comes to preparation, the "starting point" is often the most difficult to figure out — so let's get you started with what you need to know for the Week 3 slate. Note: before we dive into individual games, we should always begin with a Macro Understanding of the week ahead:
Last week, an overwhelming number of the top offenses in the NFL were playing in primetime games, which directly impacted the Main Slate.
This week, we have the opposite effect, with primetime games featuring ZERO teams implied to score 24 or more points, and FIVE teams (out of six) implied to score under 22 points. The Main Slate, meanwhile, gives us the following spots:
- Bills at Dolphins
- Vikings vs Lions
- Chiefs at Colts
- Chargers vs Jags
- Raiders at Titans
- Eagles at Commanders
- Rams at Cardinals
- Packers at Bucs
Wow!
Whereas last week, finding that "one right game" (MIA/BAL) was the key to unlocking the slate, this week could give us "several right games."
How we account for this on our DFS rosters is its own deeper discussion — which we'll get to on One Week Season throughout the weekend — but while most of your competition will be comfortable "falling in love at first sight with one particular spot," I want to encourage you to keep that full list of games in front of you, and to ask yourself: "Is only ONE game going to produce big fantasy scores this weekend? Or is there a spot on this list that my competition is overlooking? Is there a game, or an offense, that can separate my roster from others on the slate?"
Preparation is powerful. Consider your first step of preparation complete.
Our "Preparation Starting Point" at OWS is our game-by-game breakdowns in the NFL Edge, which are FREE right here. Use code LIFE to save 20% on all OWS subscriptions.
🙏🏻 Don't panic about CMC. He tells you why.
📈 Can Tom Brady do it alone? Marcas and Dwain discuss on the latest Fantasy Life podcast presented by KFC.
🍼 The QB who runs like a toddler who just stole his parent's phone. Lmao.
🐬 This Dolphins WR is set for another spike week. Find out why this matchup is too good to pass up.
🔫 THROW THE BALL TO KYLE PITTS. OR ELSE.
🤼♂️ Travis Kelce recalls getting powerbombed on TNF. He was a good sport about it.
🎭 Jerry Jones loves drama. Smh, Jerry. He might get his wish, though. Dak's progress looks good.
0️⃣ Zero RB? How do you like them apples.
In between placing waiver claims and setting our lineups, we do a little sports betting around here. Today Geoff is here to give you his best bets of the week. All odds from our friends at BetMGM.
🥵 Patriots +3 -110
We have a lot of things shaping up to make this a good week to jump on the Patriots. The Ravens issues aside, they are still sitting as a massively public bet with nearly 80% of the handle coming in so far on the Ravens.
Public favorites are generally not where we want to be landing for our bets, and there’s also the Bellichick factor.
Here's a wild one... The Patriots have been a home underdog 19 times under Bill Belichick. They've gone 15-4 ATS in those games.
— Joe Osborne (@JTFOz)
Sep 20, 2022
Editors note: Sometimes, we come to a consensus in the Fantasy Life chat. And sometimes we don't. Check out Kendall's take on why she prefers the Ravens -3
Trends aside, you also have to wonder why everyone is comfortable pilling in on the Ravens to cover on the road. They’ve allowed the most receptions to opposing WRs (45 - the next highest team is 35) and don’t exactly stack up as a stout rush defense either, ceding 4.8 yards per carry this year.
New England looked competent late against Pittsburgh, especially on the ground where they leaned on their two RBs to close out the game. With no movement yet to +3.5/-3.5 (even with the early bets on the Ravens) I’d be happy getting the full +3.0 while it’s still available and going to the Patriots for Week 3.
🤖 Derek Carr over 256.5 passing yards -115
The Derek Carr-faders last week had it figured out as the Cardinals lack of offense through three quarters led to a quiet day and Carr going under on what were very juiced-up props. This week is quite different, though, as Carr’s 256.5 on BetMGM is only the fifth-highest at his position, yet the game script and matchup may be even more favorable.
The spread is close and has been bouncing between -2.5/-2.0 in Vegas’s favor all week. It’s also reasonable to conclude that after last week’s meltdown, the Raiders won’t be laying back if they do indeed find a lead in this game.
Tennessee is also a disaster in the secondary. Their team coverage grade is 8th-worst at PFF, and they’ve allowed the fifth-highest yards per attempt by opposing QBs. Vegas is also throwing the ball on over 70% of their plays through two games, and Carr has gone 20-13 to the over on this total in his last 33 regular season games (since the start of 2020). Play for a bigger passing day from the Raiders signal-caller in Week 3.
ATS(bets against the spread)
- Patriots +3.0 -115
- Seattle -1.0 -105
- Packers +1.0 -110
Props
- Derek Carr over 256.5 -115
- Cole Kmet over 2.5 receptions -110
- Matt Ryan under 243.5 -105
Find out who Matthew is on this week in fantasy! Love/Hate is on NBC Sports Edge, and it's FREE!
It’s #LoveHate day! Week 3 is now posted … and I think I’ve invented a new way to play fantasy football? As it will always be moving forward…. This week’s edition is FREE
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Sep 22, 2022
Picking kickers can be a pain, but relax, we have our resident kicking expert Linda to help you make the right choice.
Week 2 was a little kinder than Week 1, so let’s keep it rolling with a few streaming options I love this week.
🦶 Jake Elliott (Linda's Rank: K7)
Elliott and the Eagles get the Washington Commanders Sunday in a divisional game. The Eagles offense has been rolling, and the Commanders' defense has allowed 29 points per game (tied for 27th). Jacksonville’s Riley Patterson and Lions' Austin Seibert put up double-digit performances in Weeks 1 & 2, respectively. The Eagles are 6.5-point favorites, and the matchup carries a top-3 total at 47.5. Elliott is rostered in 35% of leagues on Yahoo!
🦶 Will Lutz (Linda's Rank: K8)
The Saints face off against a Panthers team that has allowed 15+ points to the kicker position in each game. New Orleans struggled against Tampa Bay last week, but Lutz saw three field goal attempts in their Week 1 matchup versus Atlanta. I’ve got Lutz ranked as a top-10 kicker, and he’s only rostered in 11% of leagues on Yahoo!
Find the rest of Linda's kicker rankings here.
