We watched 3,687 training camp highlights so you don’t have to…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
- The Alvin Kamara suspension is imminent
- A QB and RB are rooming together
- Hall of Fame Game: Betting Picks
- RB Handcuff Tiers: Backup RBs to target
- It’s 8/2. Take it away, Peter Overzet
Football returns tonight, but before we set our sights on the Hall of Fame game (more on that below) we need to recap some important NFL news from yesterday, including a roundup of injury updates…
💥 Alvin Kamara's suspension is coming
While hardly a surprise, we did get confirmation yesterday that Alvin Kamara is expected to be suspended for his incident in Las Vegas last year after a meeting with Roger Goodell. In his report, Ian Rapoport floated a large range (2-6?) for how many games the suspension could ultimately be.
Based on these current ADPs, the market is assuming a suspension in the 2-4 game range:
If Kamara’s suspension ends up in the higher range (4+), I’d argue this backfield is wildly mispriced. I’d continue to pack bags on both Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller for now because the worst-case scenario is all of these ADPs hold, but a likely scenario is Kamara tumbles and Williams/Miller vault up.
🚑️ Injury updates
Cooper Kupp - Kupp underwent an MRI on his hamstring, and while the team will remain cautious, he is expected back for scrimmages in a few weeks. Time to exhale.
- Calvin Ridley - Ridley was limited with toe soreness yesterday, but it was apparently related to bad cleats. You may now return to your previously scheduled aggressive over-drafting of Ridley:
- J.K. Dobbins - Dobbins still isn’t practicing, and this quote from John Harbaugh isn’t encouraging. I still believe this is about money, not health.
- Isiah Pacheco - Other Chiefs RBs have been making noise at camp, but the presumed starter is expected to be cleared for contact by August 20th. I’d remain very cautious with Pacheco in drafts. It’s a crowded backfield, and the Chiefs remain a strong candidate to add a FA (or disgruntled) RB.
- Rashod Bateman - Bateman still isn’t practicing, which has paved the way for Zay Flowers to shine at camp. I’m still targeting both, but it’s prudent to take Flowers first and get a discount on Bateman.
We’ll keep you up to date on all of these injuries, but in general, it’s best to remain calm and rational while drafting.
Read on for our favorite bets in tonight’s game…
🎉 Real NFL Football to Bet on...TODAY!
Preseason or not, all we hear is that the NFL betting season is here...
The Hall of Fame Game between the Jets and Browns kicks off tonight and so does your NFL betting season!
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Looking for a game to bet for the game? Read on to get Geoff's favorite angles...but first...
🚀 A sleeper WR who continues to generate buzz. His ADP is on the move, too.
🤔 The Patriots aren’t using their top RB at camp. What’s going on?
💪 They may have the strongest WR room in the NFL. But how far will they go?
💰 The BEST value picks in Fantasy Football. You can thank us later.
🖐️ Top 10 Catches from Training Camp. Nice list here.
🛏️ We got a roommate narrative in Atlanta. We’re officially back.
📉 A bumpy start to camp for a promising WR. The Lions need him to come back strong.
🔥 Bijan roasting CBs?? Oh, baby…
🐣 NFL Moms have logged on to Twitter. And they are searching for their sons’ names…
Football is back and our betting team has you covered for tonight’s Hall of Fame game. Take it away Geoff…
For betting purposes, it’s worth noting how strong these two sides have been in the preseason.
Robert Saleh has produced a 5-0-1 straight-up record in his first two preseasons as Jets head coach while Kevin Stefanski (who didn’t get a preseason in 2020) has a 4-2 straight-up record with the Browns – with both losses coming by a single point.
Neither side looks like a team you want to fade in this spot but some surprising early week line movement, and one very publically backed side, has led to what looks like a decent opportunity for the first preseason game of 2023.
The picks for the 2023 Hall of Fame Game are below.
💰️ Browns +1.5 (-105, BetMGM)
The line in this game has completely flipped. Cleveland was as high as -2.5 in some places last weekend, but the Jets now sit as -1.5 favorites.
With Aaron Rodgers in town and Hard Knocks approaching, bettors seem eager to jump on the Jets bandwagon as early as possible this season.
Zach Wilson was also formally announced as the starter for this Thursday and his bromance with Aaron Rodgers has been a highlight for Jets beat reporters, with videos of the two talking shop making the rounds on social media.
It’s a fun story (if you’re into that sort of thing), but also one that is not likely to have any effect on this game.
That’s because there is a good chance Wilson doesn’t play much more than a drive or two and after he leaves the Jets will be left with Tim Boyle and Chris Streveler vs the Clevland crew of Kellon Mond and Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
It’s expected that the Browns will start Mond but give Thompson-Robinson – a fifth-round draft pick from UCLA who ran for 21 TDs in his last 24 games of college – the entire second half.
The rushing upside of the Browns’ QBs is a pretty big advantage in a game like this. Both teams will be rolling out vanilla defensive schemes so if a play breaks down or the passing game stalls it’s more likely the Browns will be able to improvise and pick up some cheap yards.
Regardless of whether that theory pans out, this bet still all hinges on the line.
The Browns have never lost by more than a point in any preseason game they have played under Kevin Stefanski so any chance to grab them as underdogs feels like a pretty decent opportunity.
By doing so, we get the best of both worlds as it also allows us to fade a turnover-prone quarterback like Wilson and evade the current Jets hype, which is getting distastefully frothy by the day.
💰️ Over 33.5 points (-110, BetMGM)
As mentioned above, both of the head coaches in this game love to play for the win during this time of year.
For betting purposes that’s meant less wasted end-of-game drives and higher point totals for both sides. Since 2021, Stefanski’s Browns have gone over 33.5 points in four out of six preseason games while Saleh’s Jets have hit over 33.5 points in five of six preseason matches.
The fact we have so many mobile quarterbacks available (Thompson-Robinson, Mond, Streveler) also means both offenses should have ways to move the ball if the passing games start to flounder.
While the trend for this game has favored under, the over looks like the slightly more appealing side this season if you’re looking to make a small wager on the total.
More news and notes for the HOF Game!
Looking to tail Geoff’s Hall of Fame Game bets? You can bet them at BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Sign up and start betting TODAY!
Backfield injuries throw a wrench into fantasy and real-life plans alike – so Ian sat down to determine just how involved every team’s No. 2 RB would be if their starter were to theoretically miss time. Presenting: Fantasy Life’s Handcuff RB Tiers.
🥇 Tier 1: FLEX with Benefits (6)
🏅 Antonio Gibson
Gibson is set to assume the J.D. McKissic role, which produced more targets per game than anyone not named Austin Ekeler, Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey over the past three seasons.
Speaking of CMC, Gibson has a full-fledged three-down role in his range of outcomes should starter Brian Robinson go down – this has even been hinted at over the years by head coach Ron Rivera himself.
🏅 Jaylen Warren
He out-performed Najee Harris in every meaningful efficiency metric as a rookie despite both backs facing eight-plus defenders in the box on a nearly identical rate of carries.
The Steelers join the Rams as arguably the league’s two most-willing offenses to feed a single workhorse RB a heavy majority of the offense’s snaps.
🏅 AJ Dillon
Dillon posted 11-53-0 rushing and 6-44-0 receiving lines on a robust 75% snap rate in his only non-Week 18 game without Aaron Jones over the past two seasons.
Jones boasts relatively modest advantages in targets (137 vs. 80) and (especially) rush attempts (384 vs. 373) compared to Dillon over the past two seasons. The Packers might be comfortable giving Dillon the sort of three-down workhorse role that was briefly on former No. 2 RB Jamaal Williams’ plate back in 2020 when Jones missed time (89%, 85% snap rates).
🏅 Samaje Perine
Perine might not have the ridiculous zero-to-100 playmaking that starting RB Javonte Williams possesses when healthy, but Perine proved more than capable of producing with an every-down role with Joe Mixon sidelined for most of three games last season:
- Week 11: 11-30-0 rushing, 4-52-3 receiving, 70% snaps
- Week 12: 17-58-1, 4-35-0, 80%
- Week 13: 21-106-0, 6-49-0, 83%
While head coach Sean Payton has historically preferred to feature multiple RBs, he has occasionally zeroed in on one featured RB when forced to do so (Alvin Kamara during Mark Ingram’s suspension in 2018).
🏅 Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery
Both offer the sort of three-down chops to absolutely thrive with a workhorse role should the other be forced to miss time.
Perhaps guys like Justin Jackson and Craig Reynolds would be involved to some extent; just realize either Gibbs or Montgomery would be awfully difficult to keep out of the position’s top-12 options as the clear-cut lead back inside of an offense that ranked second in expected backfield PPR points per game last season.
🏅 Zach Charbonnet
He possesses the size (6'0, 215 pounds) and pass-catching ability (61-518-0 receiving line in two years at UCLA) to feasibly work across all three downs if something were to happen to Kenneth Walker.
It’s possible the Seahawks would still keep Kenny McIntosh and/or DeeJay Dallas involved, but Charbonnet would be the lead dog expected to handle the heavy majority of touches inside of an offense that has proved willing to RIDE the hot hand over the years.
Read on for Ian’s next four tiers
