😡 The Injuries Won't STOP

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Buffalo Wild Wings:

Well, we didn’t even make it to Thursday without all hell breaking loose:

Chiefs’ HC Andy Reid told reporters that Travis Kelce hyper-extended his knee at practice today and his status for Thursday night’s opener vs the Lions is uncertain.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)
Sep 5, 2023

It’s been a bumpy ride on our way to Week 1 with injuries piling up to marquee players like Cooper Kupp, Jerry Jeudy, and Terry McLaurin.

And now, the defending champs look like they’ll be without their top pass-catching weapon on Thursday vs. the Detroit Lions, which has moved the line from Chiefs -7 all the way down to -5.5:

If you spent a first-round pick on Travis Kelce, this is a very concerning development.

There’s obviously the short-term risk of him missing games—Edwin Porras shared a few best-case scenario examples—but the long-term concerns are more worrisome at Kelce’s advanced age (he turns 34 in a month).

Schefter later followed up that his ACL is intact, but that there is still inflammation in his knee and they will test it again today.

1. It’s concerning that his knee is swollen enough that they have to wait for it to go down
2. Hyperextensions are some of the hardest injuries to predict recovery time based on wide variety of possible pathology
3. Id be shocked if he played Thursday even with just this little… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

— Brian Sutterer MD (@BrianSuttererMD)
Sep 5, 2023

Kelce is a true superstar, but “father time is undefeated,” as they say.

When the age cliff comes for these guys, it is brutal and unforgiving. This is not to say Kelce can’t rebound from this and have a solid year, but the risk has been ratcheted up multiple levels.

Whether you are a Kelce manager or not, it’s worth tacking on Noah Gray to the end of your bench:

noah gray was 10th in snaps and 5th(!) in receptions for the chiefs last season as they shifted from using 12 personnel 24% of the time in 2021 to 39% of the time in 2022

if kelce doesn't go on thursday, gray becomes a *massive* part of kansas city's offense

— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics)
Sep 5, 2023

Yesterday, Dwain broke down the Chiefs WRs and it’s worth circling back and re-reading his analysis, because the team has no choice but to push a few of these guys into prominent roles.

We’ll keep you posted with more updates as we get them…

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Last week, we introduced Fantasy Life’s Punishment Eliminator League, consisting of 18 Fantasy Life staff members. The person eliminated each week will be subject to a punishment from our Buffalo Wild Wings Punishment Generator, and we’ve got breaking news…the first punishment is in…

Are you ready for Week 1? Today Ian shares his tips and tricks for how to react to all the new information and avoid falling into the history of Week 1 overreactions…

Week 1 is a helluva drug.

It’s been a long seven months since our last bit of meaningful NFL action, leaving real-life fans and fantasy football degenerates alike absolutely DYING to get back into the swing of things.

Of course, the offseason has a way of causing some swift overreactions to whatever happens in the next week of action.

Slow starts, hot starts, questionable game-planning choices: Week 1 might technically only count for one 18th of the regular season, but you’d never know that based on the incoming overreactions to whatever goes down.

Sometimes a massive week-winning fantasy performance on opening night is simply a sign of even more great things to come.

Other times it’s simply Sammy Watkins back on his bullsh*t, or someone like Kevin Ogletree booming once before leading fantasy managers on an ill-fated wild-goose chase trying to re-capture that same lightning in a bottle.

Look no further than literally last year to find some reasonable – but ultimately wrong – interpretations from the first slate of games.

1. Commanders QB Carson Wentz throws for 313 yards and four (!) TDs in a thrilling comeback win over the Jaguars, racking up more fantasy points than any QB not named Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen in the process. Looks like Washington found their QB!

2. Colts WR Michael Pittman caught nine of 13 targets for 121 yards and a score in Matt Ryan’s debut. Certainly, a third-year breakout is on the way now that Indy solved their problems under center!

3. RBs like Kareem Hunt, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Dontrell Hilliard and James Robinson scored multiple TDs on their way to fantastic fantasy finishes. Surely each enjoyed loads of future success!

There were also plenty of examples on the other side with studs having rather brutal down weeks: CeeDee Lamb, Rhamondre Stevenson, Dameon Pierce, Amari Cooper and Tony Pollard are just a few names who scored fewer than 5.0 PPR fantasy points before putting forward objectively great fantasy seasons.

Hell, DeVonta Smith didn’t even record a catch in the opening 60 minutes of last season. He turned out alright!

August 2 reminder that DeVonta Smith is good at football

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz)
Aug 2, 2023

Naturally, none of these situations wound up being all that reflective of 2022 fantasy production despite injuries largely not being a major issue for any party involved. THIS LEAGUE.

Determining whether or not a boom or bust fantasy performance is indicative of future production is what fantasy football management is all about.

Here are three key tips to NOT let Week 1 anxiety and hoopla get the best of you for better and for worse.

1️⃣ Tip #1: Keep your composure

Don’t panic!

As the late great Norm Macdonald once said: “You should never bet on football ‘cause the ball ain't round.”

While I will continue to bet on football (especially with Fantasy Life providing FREE picks), Norm highlights just how quickly things can change with one bounce of the ball.

An overthrow can be the difference between winning or losing your game. Or maybe a drop. Or maybe an official ignored Terry McLaurin and nullified a game-winning TD on a ridiculous illegal formation penalty (Yes, I’m still bitter).

Randomness is a part of every sport to various extents, and especially so in 11-on-11 tackle football … with a ball that ain’t round.

Feel free to scream and cry when bad things inevitably happen to your fantasy team; just realize that separating bad luck from bad performance will help you avoid letting one bad Sunday negatively influence future roster decisions.

Which brings us to…

💨 The Bucs RB you need to add ASAP. He’s opening up as the RB2 behind a shaky RB1.

📺 Have a last-minute draft? 10 tips to help you dominate.

🛸 You will not believe which QB claims to have seen a UFO. Checks out.

📈 Getting ahead of the curve is vital. Four players primed to break out.

🤔 Jimmy G’s contract was restructured. Making room for JT?! Just kidding.

💰️ Our favorite bet to lead the league in receiving yards. Nice odds.

🃏 Who is The Joker? Don’t forget about this Falcon.

🚑️ Will Kyler play this year? An NFL insider gives his opinion.

👋 Happy trails to one of the greats. What a career.

Each week during the season, Cooterdoodle walks us through the fantasy trade market from a buy, hold, sell perspective...

Sure, we haven’t even kicked off Week 1 yet, but that doesn’t mean we can’t start strategizing. Your [undisclosed number] of drafts have finished, which means the competition has already begun.

Believe me when I say this: Winners never rest. 

So let’s get into some Buy, Sell, Hold baby! It feels good to be back!

💰 BUY

🛒 Post Draft Clarity

Now that you’ve had a few hours(days? weeks?) to sit on your draft results, it’s time to take another look, but this time without those rose-colored glasses.

The dopamine levels are back to baseline and we can finally look upon our rosters with post-draft clarity.

As we take inventory, it’s important to really rip your team apart with your newfound honesty.

High hopes and biases aside, how does your roster truly look?

Evaluate your starters. Judge your bench and your depth. Which position makes you the most vulnerable in the event of injury or bust? Now that the fog has lifted, it’s time to identify any and all of your shortcomings.

If you pinpoint your Achilles heel now it will save you a ton of pain later.

With post-draft clarity, you’ll always be ready to pivot in the heat of the moment while your leaguemates are frozen with reactions like shock and disbelief.

🛒 Assess and Attack

We don’t want to only focus on our own team, do we? (responsorial: “No!”)

Zeroing in on your leaguemates’ weak spots and shortcomings is a valuable way to spend your time as you wait for kickoff. Here’s why:

• It can give insight into where they might be putting their FAAB and energy during waivers

• Weak spots can be leveraged in a future trade. Help them help you.

• It can be one hell of an ego boost to see where they f*cked up

So while everyone is waiting for Thursday Night Football, you’re preparing for battle.

💰 SELL

🛒 Panic Trading After Bust Weeks

It happens every year. You’ve hyped yourself up and drafted well. You’re in a position to win from the start but… the unthinkable happens: You lose.

Your early-round pick is a bust. How could this happen?! That’s when the panic starts to set in. But you’ve got to get a hold of yourself.

STOP IT.

Don’t freak out yet. It’s still early. Sooner than later you’ll see Buy Sell Hold articles telling you to target this ‘bust’ and capitalize on the panic.

Don’t be the guy that jumps ship too soon. Keep calm and remember some of these fun facts from last season (.5PRR):

• Isaiah Pacheco(12.2) outscored Austin Ekeler(9.2) in Week 1, but Ekeler went on to score 190.5 more total points on the year.

• Justin Jefferson had 5 weeks with less than 8 points (3 of those being less than 5 total points) and he still finished 10th in total points for the season and WR1 overall.

• Derrick Henry started 2022 off with single-point games in each of his first two weeks, but he finished RB4 overall.

It’s easy to convince ourselves that we should chase ‘the next big thing’ or ‘jump ship’, but you drafted the way you did for a reason. Don’t panic right out of the gate.

Best wishes and prayers for my boy in the home league

— Tyler O (@FFTylerO)
Sep 5, 2023